What would a defense 1st starting lineup and rotation be like?

[KcTo]

The Iowa team needs to play against a real team. The defensive metrics so far against terrible teams are not good. The raw #'s have been decent for Iowa's D, but adjusted for the absolute horrific teams they have played so far it has them 80th in defense according to Pomeroy.

Iowa will likely struggle very hard to defend against teams with good big guys or those who attack the rim, or both. Yes, Keeg. Murray can block shots. He is awesome. But the game plan for every good team is going to be go at him over and and over to get fouls called on him. Once he gets 2, Fran will sit him.

Everyone can have an opinion on Ogundele. I would like to be optimistic, but I don't see it at all. He doesn't understand how to play, and he's nowhere near ready physically. Rebraca and Murray are going to need to play heavy minutes and somehow play good defense without fouling. Good luck with that.

re-posting this from another thread as is corroborates the theory behind “the best defenders” with a bit of early season metrics…

After 5 games advanced metrics have 4 players with a sub-90 rating ( with 100 being average )

Keegan
Kris
Perk
wait for it…….

Josh Ogundele

JoeT is at 90.1

Not surprisingly, this is the 5 I’ve recently put forth would be the best combination to optimize iowas overall defense efficiency while still maintaining a high level of offensive efficiency

 

[perryhawk]

re-posting this from another thread as is corroborates the theory behind “the best defenders” with a bit of early season metrics…

After 5 games advanced metrics have 4 players with a sub-90 rating ( with 100 being average )

Keegan
Kris
Perk
wait for it…….

Josh Ogundele

JoeT is at 90.1

Not surprisingly, this is the 5 I’ve recently put forth would be the best combination to optimize iowas overall defense efficiency while still maintaining a high level of offensive efficiency

So the lower the score the better?

 

[fivecardstud14]

re-posting this from another thread as is corroborates the theory behind “the best defenders” with a bit of early season metrics…

After 5 games advanced metrics have 4 players with a sub-90 rating ( with 100 being average )

Keegan
Kris
Perk
wait for it…….

Josh Ogundele

JoeT is at 90.1

Not surprisingly, this is the 5 I’ve recently put forth would be the best combination to optimize iowas overall defense efficiency while still maintaining a high level of offensive efficiency

Yes we get it, you think Ogundele should be playing 35mpg & he's a better rim protector than Gobert.

 

[KcTo]

Yes we get it, you think Ogundele should be playing 35mpg & he's a better rim protector than Gobert.

Glad you agree

 

[Ronman]

I might suggest tha PMac is a poorer interior defender than both Murray’s, Rebraca, and for sure in the post Ogundele.

Josh, is that you?

 

[KcTo]

Josh, is that you?

PMac was a very poor defender last year and a poor defender this year
Rebraca was an avg defender last year in an inferior league and therefore projects to be poorer relative to the step up in class

Doing the same things, with same players and expecting different results is the definition of insanity -Iowa basketball fan that tires of seeing IOWA consistently get run out the gym in post season losses.

 

[jonesy5960]

PMac was a very poor defender last year and a poor defender this year
Rebraca was an avg defender last year in an inferior league and therefore projects to be poorer relative to the step up in class

Doing the same things, with same players and expecting different results is the definition of insanity -Iowa basketball fan that tires of seeing IOWA consistently get run out the gym in post season losses.

I won't argue that PMac is a good defender or rebounder because to date he has not been. I also wouldn't argue that Josh O has shown to be a good defender or rebounder. He hasn't been on the floor enough to make that assertion. Metrics aren't relevant due to the miniscule sample size.

 

[unoHawkeye]

Ogundele averages 5 mpg against the worst players on already bad teams

Luc Laketa is shooting the highest percentage from three of anybody on the team, has the highest ORating of anybody on the team by nearly 50 points, is third in steals per 100 possessions, number 1 in true shooting percentage. Make him a starter!

 

[nbanflfactory]

The Iowa team needs to play against a real team. The defensive metrics so far against terrible teams are not good. The raw #'s have been decent for Iowa's D, but adjusted for the absolute horrific teams they have played so far it has them 80th in defense according to Pomeroy.

Iowa will likely struggle very hard to defend against teams with good big guys or those who attack the rim, or both. Yes, Keeg. Murray can block shots. He is awesome. But the game plan for every good team is going to be go at him over and and over to get fouls called on him. Once he gets 2, Fran will sit him.

Everyone can have an opinion on Ogundele. I would like to be optimistic, but I don't see it at all. He doesn't understand how to play, and he's nowhere near ready physically. Rebraca and Murray are going to need to play heavy minutes and somehow play good defense without fouling. Good luck with that.

Stats and numbers are pointless. Like you said weve played garbage teams. You think ash is gonna be seeing many minutes in b1g play? I imagine it's easy to slip a little when you're up 30 or 40 points.

 

[KcTo]

I won't argue that PMac is a good defender or rebounder because to date he has not been. I also wouldn't argue that Josh O has shown to be a good defender or rebounder. He hasn't been on the floor enough to make that assertion. Metrics aren't relevant due to the miniscule sample size.

Jonesy, you are correct.
Ogundele in 2021 does not have the numbers to be statistically significant. I agree 100%. in the same space, he dose lead the team in Rebounds per minute played, so although nit statistically significant, it provides a weak level of evidence that he has done well in the few minutes that he has played.

as for P Mac, well, that is a completely different data set. P Mac had a robust 450 minutes in 2020 and has repeated the same statistical performance in 2021, that of a below average defender. Don’t get me wrong with P Mac, he’s got some tremendous upside, and I like him a lot, but to date, he’s really a net negative defender which detracts from his overall performance.

all that said, I’m looking forward to seeing how both progress in 2021

- in Fran we Trust

 

[KcTo]

What would happen if Fran played his best defensive lineup more, but still ran up tempo?
What if that lineup went: Murray, Murray, Ogundele, Perkins and JoeT?

Rim protectors? Check. Rebounders? Check. Perimeter defense? Check. Scorers? Murrays and Perkins, check. Over all Defense. Double check.

Fran can still get Jobo 8-10 3pt FGA, by playing when a Murray and Perkins is out, Ogundele isn’t going to play 30 min, so there is plenty of minutes for P Mac and Rebraca at the 4-5 spots.

This sort of team won’t give up 45 1h points to #330 ranked team or give up 56 1H points and 56% shooting in 2nd round of the NCAA.

Reposting these defensive numbers, demonstrating that this season is more of the same.

this yr iowa sits at #5 Adjusted Offense and #78 Def
last yr iowa was at #3 Adjusted Offense #75 Def

doing the same thing and expecting different results….. = insanity

-In Fran we Trust

 

[Ronman]

So far the best that can be said for Josh is that he is a space eater. I hate posting denigrating comments about any of our players, but KcTo is so over the top with his assessment of Josh. When you see him grabbing his shorts after a handful of trips up and down the court, you know he's just not ready.

 

[KcTo]

So far the best that can be said for Josh is that he is a space eater. I hate posting denigrating comments about any of our players, but KcTo is so over the top with his assessment of Josh. When you see him grabbing his shorts after a handful of trips up and down the court, you know he's just not ready.

What specifically has been over the top?

 

[unoHawkeye]

Reposting these defensive numbers, demonstrating that this season is more of the same.

this yr iowa sits at #5 Adjusted Offense and #78 Def
last yr iowa was at #3 Adjusted Offense #75 Def

doing the same thing and expecting different results….. = insanity

-In Fran we Trust

Okay Ken Pomeroy, take it easy. Iowa’s defense has looked far superior to last year’s. The only reason that these numbers look remotely the same is because of our “end of the bench” players who come in in blowouts and give up big scoring runs. If you’re looking at minutes played by regular rotations, then I bet that defensive efficiency number is top 50

Sheesh. It’s a little early in the season and Iowa has too few losses to be breaking out the pitchforks, don’t you think?

 

[kceasthawk]

Ogundele averages 5 mpg against the worst players on already bad teams

Luc Laketa is shooting the highest percentage from three of anybody on the team, has the highest ORating of anybody on the team by nearly 50 points, is third in steals per 100 possessions, number 1 in true shooting percentage. Make him a starter!

Excellent post UNO. We know very little about this team at this point relative to how they'll fare in BIG play, and even sillier to make projections about Josh O based on a few minutes against the weakest teams we'll play all season...

 

[jonesy5960]

Okay Ken Pomeroy, take it easy. Iowa’s defense has looked far superior to last year’s. The only reason that these numbers look remotely the same is because of our “end of the bench” players who come in in blowouts and give up big scoring runs. If you’re looking at minutes played by regular rotations, then I bet that defensive efficiency number is top 50

Sheesh. It’s a little early in the season and Iowa has too few losses to be breaking out the pitchforks, don’t you think?

There is no doubt that this unit has the capability to play better defense than they have the last several years. It remains to be seen whether Fran can draw it out of them or has the willingness to place more emphasis on giving the more talented defensive players the minutes necessary to make it happen. Contrary to popular opinion on here, Fran has actually coached top 50 defenses at Iowa. The Gesell, Woodbury, Clemmons, Uthoff team was top 40 for 3 years. 2017 is when the defense tanked and it's been bad to below average since. Hopefully this year reverses that trend.

 

[unoHawkeye]

There is no doubt that this unit has the capability to play better defense than they have the last several years. It remains to be seen whether Fran can draw it out of them or has the willingness to place more emphasis on giving the more talented defensive players the minutes necessary to make it happen. Contrary to popular opinion on here, Fran has actually coached top 50 defenses at Iowa. The Gesell, Woodbury, Clemmons, Uthoff team was top 40 for 3 years. 2017 is when the defense tanked and it's been bad to below average since. Hopefully this year reverses that trend.

It’s really up to the players. This idea that Fran doesn’t emphasize defense is a myth. I’m guessing Jordan Bohannon doesn’t need Fran to tell him that a lack of defense is the reason that the Hawks haven’t made it past the Round of 32 over his six year career. I’m guessing that’s also something he’s letting the younger players know on a day-in day-out basis

 

[jonesy5960]

It’s really up to the players. This idea that Fran doesn’t emphasize defense is a myth. I’m guessing Jordan Bohannon doesn’t need Fran to tell him that a lack of defense is the reason that the Hawks haven’t made it past the Round of 32 over his six year career. I’m guessing that’s also something he’s letting the younger players know on a day-in day-out basis

Well yeah, players play and coaches coach. What players can't do is decide who's on the floor. If Fran wanted the absolute best defensive team on the floor I don't think that Patrick and JBo would be starting. There is often a tradeoff between offensive and defensive skills. I don't know that you could say that any of the starting five last year were among the top five defenders on the team. The 5 best defenders on the team last year were JT, Keegan, Perkins, Nunge and Ulis. They were all better defenders than the people playing in front of them. I'm not saying they should have been starting but they were better defensively. This year you have 3 players in Kris, Perkins and Ulis who are all better defenders than JBo, Patrick and Connor. I'm not sure their relative minutes will come close to reflecting that.

 

[KcTo]

Okay Ken Pomeroy, take it easy. Iowa’s defense has looked far superior to last year’s. The only reason that these numbers look remotely the same is because of our “end of the bench” players who come in in blowouts and give up big scoring runs. If you’re looking at minutes played by regular rotations, then I bet that defensive efficiency number is top 50

Sheesh. It’s a little early in the season and Iowa has too few losses to be breaking out the pitchforks, don’t you think?

agaIn, I think you’ve missed the point completely.

A. In Fran we Trust signature means exactly that. It’s 180 degree from the “pitchforks” narrative you are creating.
B. Without data to support your assertions, you are just another person* with an opinion

-In Fran we Trust

 

[unoHawkeye]

agaIn, I think you’ve missed the point completely.

A. In Fran we Trust signature means exactly that. It’s 180 degree from the “pitchforks” narrative you are creating.
B. Without data to support your assertions, you are just another person* with an opinion

-In Fran we Trust

When you spend your post calling Fran’s coaching insane and then finish with “In Fran we trust” it comes across as being facetious.

Without understanding the context behind data, or providing data without also providing context, you appear to not understand statistics

 

[KcTo]

Excellent post UNO. We know very little about this team at this point relative to how they'll fare in BIG play, and even sillier to make projections about Josh O based on a few minutes against the weakest teams we'll play all season...

So again for those joining this topics late, let me reboot with the attempt in sharing the signal, and not this noise.

A. “Ogundele looks lost, out of shape, etc….”
-The comments I’ve put forth here is “What are these based on? Last year, this year, throughly film review? i simply put forth that in the limited and ‘non-predictive’ sample, all Ogundele has done is preformed very well, rebounding at an elite level. Agreed the opposition talent is not there , but all he has done is grab rebounds and block shots.
What more can you ask of him in garbage time?

B. Also made clear is that this is a small,sample and not predictive of future results. nobody is saying Ogundele is going to preform with these results in a starting role (That another false narrative that has been created misguiding others).

C. What we are saying is that Ogundele may be an answer to the riddle of creating a better team defense approach. adding a true rim protection threat and plus defensive rebounder, along with a post play that can afford to devote all fouls to defending the paint.

C-2 we are also positing that Rebraca isn’t going to do be able to do an effective job of playing defense against the B1G BIG posts players and that IOWA will need a bigger post defender, particularly in those games, and in NCAA tournament games.

C-3 we are also positing that inserting Ogundele, will keep Keegan Murray away from playing interior defense where he will get fouls. This strategy allows Iowa to maximize Keegan’s offensive contributions, by maximizing his minutes played, and reducing the risk of him picking up fouls playing post defense. There have been multiple posters put forth lineups that Keegan in post defense, which playing Ogundele, even in limited minutes, will reduce Keegan’s exposure to fouls.

hopefully this will create clarity on the Ogundele use case and eliminate much of the ensuing attempts to distort and the accompanying amisinforming noise.

-In Fran we Trust

 

[KcTo]

When you spend your post calling Fran’s coaching insane and then finish with “In Fran we trust” it comes across as being facetious.

Without understanding the context behind data, or providing data without also providing context, you appear to not understand statistics

please kindly post my comment where you claim this was posted “calling Frans coaching insane?”

this is just more made up misinforming hyperbole, kindly refrain..

 

[unoHawkeye]

please kindly post my comment where you claim this was posted “calling Frans coaching insane?”

this is just more made up misinforming hyperbole, kindly refrain..

So what was your “definition of insanity” comment regarding then? Please advise

 

[Hawkfan_08]

If they have a big who is, BIG then Josh O. If not, Kris.

 

[twindman]

i thought Josh was slowly coming along. Until last game. When he was under the basket it looked like he had hands of stone. Ball was bouncing off them and he never coralled the ball a couple of time.

 

[KcTo]

i thought Josh was slowly coming along. Until last game. When he was under the basket it looked like he had hands of stone. Ball was bouncing off them and he never coralled the ball a couple of time.

I still think the overall sample,size is too small, let alone a single play,
all that said, he’s grabbed 21% of all missed shots when he’s in game, so he is grabbing the ball when it comes off the tin

 

[KcTo]

So what was your “definition of insanity” comment regarding then? Please advise

will gladly share my thoughts on that, as soon as you post quote where you indicate I called Frans coaching insane…

 

[unoHawkeye]

will gladly share my thoughts on that, as soon as you post quote where you indicate I called Frans coaching insane…

That quote is what i was talking about

 

[KcTo]

dusting this old post off to illustrate the conference data and whom is excelling…

With scant data on conference games, but conference games being more predictive than the non-con, what do we see.
in terms of the PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, the rating systems used most for NBA we have this

keegan 26.7
Perkins 26.4
Ulis. 24.7
Ogundele 19.2
Kris 17.4

 

[fivecardstud14]

dusting this old post off to illustrate the conference data and whom is excelling…

With scant data on conference games, but conference games being more predictive than the non-con, what do we see.
in terms of the PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, the rating systems used most for NBA we have this

keegan 26.7
Perkins 26.4
Ulis. 24.7
Ogundele 19.2
Kris 17.4

PER is far from "systems most used for the NBA." Back in 2010 it was. PER also favors big men.

 

[unoHawkeye]

dusting this old post off to illustrate the conference data and whom is excelling…

With scant data on conference games, but conference games being more predictive than the non-con, what do we see.
in terms of the PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, the rating systems used most for NBA we have this

keegan 26.7
Perkins 26.4
Ulis. 24.7
Ogundele 19.2
Kris 17.4

This has to be some sort of joke. There have only been two conference games and Ogundele only played 2 minutes in one of them. His PER is basically from one game!

I can’t decide if you genuinely do not understand statistics or if your man crush on Ogundele is just making you misrepresent them. You think Ogundele’s one game played in conference play is “more indicative” than his entire season? Is that because his PER over the entire season is 12th on the team?

 

[Packer54]

What would happen if Fran played his best defensive lineup more, but still ran up tempo?
What if that lineup went: Murray, Murray, Ogundele, Perkins and JoeT?

Rim protectors? Check. Rebounders? Check. Perimeter defense? Check. Scorers? Murrays and Perkins, check. Over all Defense. Double check.

Fran can still get Jobo 8-10 3pt FGA, by playing when a Murray and Perkins is out, Ogundele isn’t going to play 30 min, so there is plenty of minutes for P Mac and Rebraca at the 4-5 spots.

This sort of team won’t give up 45 1h points to #330 ranked team or give up 56 1H points and 56% shooting in 2nd round of the NCAA.

Start the best 5 to give you offense and defense.
Twins
Filip
Perkins
Joe

With the exception of Filip you have athleticism and scoring. Filip can give you quality minutes and spelled by O. You have press intensity.
Just don’t sub out 3 guys at a time. Be situational and strategic. We have guys to blend in just fine.....just not 3 or 4 at a time. I just don’t think Fran will do it.

 

[KcTo]

This has to be some sort of joke. There have only been two conference games and Ogundele only played 2 minutes in one of them. His PER is basically from one game!

I can’t decide if you genuinely do not understand statistics or if your man crush on Ogundele is just making you misrepresent them. You think Ogundele’s one game played in conference play is “more indicative” than his entire season? Is that because his PER over the entire season is 12th on the team?

All games PER is
Keegan
Kris
Perk
Sandfort
JoeT

The signal here is that Kris, Perk have been performing ahead of all others, and far ahead of others that are getting more minutes and playing in front of them.

the Ogundele appearance in the top group is no surprise, shows again that he’s performed well when given the opportunity, but is really more of an incidental finding given the minutes he’s played ( of which has been noted nearly every time he’s mentioned ).

I would expect His performance to regress to the mean, it he’s clearly done very well in his limited Conference minutes.

explaining it agwin like your a 5 yo, I said “Conference stats are more predictive of future conference performance than stats against the very soft non con“ I’m sure you agree to that.

 

[KcTo]

Start the best 5 to give you offense and defense.
Twins
Filip
Perkins
Joe

With the exception of Filip you have athleticism and scoring. Filip can give you quality minutes and spelled by O. You have press intensity.
Just don’t sub out 3 guys at a time. Be situational and strategic. We have guys to blend in just fine.....just not 3 or 4 at a time. I just don’t think Fran will do it.

I agree in that I’d play Rebraca in the post, the most, but I’d also bring in Ogundele in short spans to play defense, give fouls, and block shots, there are enough shooters that he doesn’t have to shoot. Pair him a PG, JoBo, Sanford and a KM and he’s the 4th non-PG option.

 

[KcTo]

It looks like it might be time to dust this off again…

 

[HawkRose]

Why it's like talking about KF getting a new OFF Cooridnator that will "open" up the offense. Fruitless ideas

 

[LetsGoHawks83]

In an alternate universe.... Would our "defense 1st" team beat our "offense 1st" team?

Someone put in the effort of assembling those lineups. Clearly JBo and Connor would be on both teams 😛

 

[KcTo]

Why it's like talking about KF getting a new OFF Cooridnator that will "open" up the offense. Fruitless ideas

I think they are meaningful ideas

recall Ferentz became Kirk 2.0 and more by evolving, by listening and adapting With the result being his teams continually and consistently punch over their weight and make successful post season runs.

Fran, consistently does neither, and pays the price, we are in agreement.

Fran needs to hear this feedback from the public , but the press won’t ask him as he will become an angry old man with Them.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Dickenson is better than either of them and he struggled against a smaller team agressivly doubling him the other night.

So did Luka to an extent.

Its not quite the problem you guys think it is when you can effectively double and you gain allot in other ways by staying quicker.

Sure they're going to get it deep sometimes and score but thats worth the trade offs.

Theres also no way any of those 7fters can defend Keegan on the perimeter.

Its easier to isolate a slow big off the dribble than it is for that player to consistently score on the block against double teams.

The difference is we don't dig often (certainly no on outside of joe). We don't run doubles at a big. We watch a back down....dribble....dribble...dribble.. shot and they either make it or we don't block out or we get pushed under the hoop.
Fran's defensive philosophies are obscenely bad.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

I won't argue that PMac is a good defender or rebounder because to date he has not been. I also wouldn't argue that Josh O has shown to be a good defender or rebounder. He hasn't been on the floor enough to make that assertion. Metrics aren't relevant due to the miniscule sample size.

i'd agree with you in theory but josh has held his own against a few of the best big men in the country. Which makes it silly he doesn't get a chance in other games.
Anytime pmac or anyone else cherry picks and we give up an offensive rebound they should be done for the game. it can be his new 2 foul rule .