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Where do we stand now?

js8793

HR All-American
Dec 4, 2018
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After seeing the fallout of yesterday's dual, I thought I might take a few minutes at work to evaluate where the hawks sit right now as a team, and what the next month of the season may hold. I'll go weight by weight. It's hard to make predictions without knowing seeds and how the bracket is laid out, so I'll just guess based on how the guys are wrestling.

125: Unfortunately, my fears from the last month have been all but confirmed. We should not expect the Spencer Lee from last year to make an appearance this year. This is obviously a hard pill to swallow as fans, but infinitely harder if you're a competitor like Spencer. With all this being said, he can still win a title this year. He is that good. He should not be favored to do so, but he will be in the hunt, and should at least place. I'll come in with low expectations and say he takes 4th with some early bonus. 15.5 pts

133: We should feel really good about Austin Desanto. This kid has made huge leaps in this program and is wrestling lights out. His sportsmanship has been solid since the suspension. In a weaker weight, he is wrestling like a heavy finals favorite. At 133, he will be in a war to place. I think he makes the semis and takes fourth with some early bonus, similar to Spencer. Like Spencer, he can absolutely win this weight class, but it's a tough ask for anybody to win this weight. 13.5 pts

141: I'm assuming Max will be the guy here. We should also feel pretty good about Max. He's really had only 1 bad match as a freshman. Other than that, he's been right there with every top 10 guy he's wrestled. He will continue to be right there in the postseason, but I fear his finishing issues will prevent him from making a deep run. I'll say he goes 2-2, falling a match short of R12. 1 pt

149: Lugo has been better than people give him credit for. He took two bad losses early to Rohlfing and Degen (who just convincingly beat top 5 Mauller for the second time), but has been very solid since then, losing only to Ashnault, Kolodzik, and Sasso, all of whom I think are capable of winning a title this year (yes, I know Sasso is redshirting). The scary thing about Pat is that he wrestles to the level of his competition, meaning he can beat anybody, but is also in danger of losing to anybody too. He could be in the finals or he could go 0-2. I think he splits the difference and finishes 6th. 9 pts

157: Young is in a similar boat as Lugo. He somewhat wrestles to level of his competition, making him an early upset contender. However, there's only 1 guy he can't beat here (Nolf) and 1 other who I would favor heavily over him (Deakin). I think Kaleb has the skills to wrestle in the finals this year. I don't know if he has the mindset. If he opens up and creates exchanges, he will go deep. He has very impressive skills. I'll go out on a limb and say he takes 4th and surprises a lot of people. He could definitely not place though. 12.5 pts

165: Very similar to Desanto, Marinelli is wrestling like a champion, but is in a very deep weight. He will be in a war starting in the quarters. I think he makes the finals and loses to Joseph, picking up some bonus along the way. We all know how he's looked this year, so not much to say about this weight. 19 pts

174: I'm very appreciative of the service The Dealership has given to this program. However, I'm not confident he qualifies, and if he does, I don't think he scores any points. 0 pts.

184: Again, similar to Lugo and Young, Cash wrestles to the level of his competition. I think this bracket is going to disintegrate. Whether Wilcke is the beneficiary or victim remains to be seen. He could have a similar tournament to Murin or end up as the lowest seed in the finals. Nothing would surprise me at 184 other than Martin losing. I'll pick Wilcke to finish R12 again. 2 pts

197: Similar to 184, I think the 197 bracket has a strong chance to fall apart. If Warner is on the other side from Nickal, he can be in the finals. He could also get knocked off early. I'll say he takes 7th, but very optimistic about him. Just not quite confident in his ability to get a takedown when he needs to. 7 pts

285 Not much to say about the big man. His success will be heavily draw-dependent. He's still a tough out, but is far more vulnerable than he was. Unfortunately, I think he falls short of placing in his last go-round, but gets a couple pins. 6 pts

Total: 85.5 pts

Concluding thoughts: This team has been snake-bitten. The three top returning scorers are not 100%. The rest of the team is incredibly young and inexperienced. Murin has made some freshman mistakes, but has been very good overall and will have the opportunity to knock off high seeds. I also suspect he is banged up right now too. Young is still finding his confidence. Warner has made great strides since Midlands, and looks like he's starting to believe he can win. I think Brands has done a great job considering the circumstances. It doesn't look like it was meant to be for the hawks this year. Or maybe they've been saving an entire season's worth of luck for one final tournament. Right now, I'm not as focused on where the hawks finish as a team. I'm looking for improvement out of individual guys building for the next two years where they have a legit shot to knock of Penn State. How does Spencer respond? Will he find new ways to win matches? Will Desanto hold up to the heat? How does Murin bounce back after a rough February? Does Lugo wrestle to his potential? Will Young open up? Can Marinelli keep the momentum going? Can Wilcke finally break through? Will Warner win tough matches? And can Stoll find some senior magic? There's a lot to look forward to over the next month. Things may not go well, but they sure will be entertaining. Try to enjoy the sport for what it is: entertainment.
 
So, you're saying murin will lose his first, and win the next 2 before losing again?

Same with Wilcke? Your points aren't adding up. I think you're a little short on those two.
 
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So, you're saying murin will lose his first, and win the next 2 before losing again?

Same with Wilcke? Your points aren't adding up. I think you're a little short on those two.
Yes his points are low for sure at 141 & 184 would be 4-5 points .If your 7th you definitely score more then 7.
 
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Nice breakdown. All your predictions are solid but I am a little more optimistic in a few places.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I think the next 4 weeks will be huge for Spencer in getting back closer to peak. I think he pulls it rights the ship and gets title #2 still. I realize there isn’t much evidence supporting this right now but I just think time is the key to getting him back and he will have enough gas in the tank to get it done.

I think Desanto finishes 2nd or 3rd. He is flourishing in the room and I think his pace is going to give people nightmares at NCAAs now that he has cleaned up some of his other issues.

I am much higher on Warner. Things are aligning with him and I think he will be top 4.
 
So, you're saying murin will lose his first, and win the next 2 before losing again?

Same with Wilcke? Your points aren't adding up. I think you're a little short on those two.
Yes, I think Murin will lose first round then win 2 on the backside worth .5 each. I think he'll be seeded somewhere in the 20s, so he'll have someone near the top 10. He hasn't been able to beat that level of opponent yet. Now, if he has a solid big tens are maneuvers his way to a seed in the mid to high teens, he could definitely win his first match before dropping to the back side, which would change the point total to 1.5.

As for Wilcke, I had him winning first round then dropping to a high seed (I think he'll be seeded somewhere 10-16ish) in the second, and then winning two back side matches to get him to 2 points. I don't think either picks up bonus in their wins.

It is kind of surprising how hard it is to earn points at NCAAs. You pretty much have to place top 6 to earn meaningful points if you aren't pinning a bunch of people. It also makes bonus very influential. Spencer's bonus alone was worth another 5th place finisher last year. Same with Stoll (they both had 7 bonus points).
 
Nice breakdown. All your predictions are solid but I am a little more optimistic in a few places.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I think the next 4 weeks will be huge for Spencer in getting back closer to peak. I think he pulls it rights the ship and gets title #2 still. I realize there isn’t much evidence supporting this right now but I just think time is the key to getting him back and he will have enough gas in the tank to get it done.

I think Desanto finishes 2nd or 3rd. He is flourishing in the room and I think his pace is going to give people nightmares at NCAAs now that he has cleaned up some of his other issues.

I am much higher on Warner. Things are aligning with him and I think he will be top 4.

Agree with you on Desanto and Warner. I have a gut feeling that Desanto is going to win NCAAs, but I'm trying to be cautious about it.

Warner can definitely place better, but he has a history of under performing in wrestle backs and he's a freshman. I like the way he's wrestling right now though.
 
Yes his points are low for sure at 141 & 184 would be 4-5 points .If your 7th you definitely score more then 7.
See my other post about NCAA scoring. It takes a lot to start scoring meaningful points. Most R12 finishers only score 2-3 pts for their team.
 
I’ll still take our shot at this. 98

125-18(2nd)
133-14(4th)
141-3(rd of 12)
149-10(6th)
157-7(8th)
165-20(1st)
174-NA
184-6(8th)
197-12(4th)
HWT-8(6th)

These #’s include my thoughts on bonus and advancement. I tried to point total for placement off memory so I may be off a point or two based upon my memory
 
Where ever Spencer stands on the podium this year will be fine with me. Going out on the mat knowing the fatigue is coming takes a certain level of guts and dedication to the team, this multiplied by him knowing what he can do at 100% has to make it hard to face. BUT he is still going to go out there and puttting it on the line for himself and for us fans. When I am out in Pittsburg this year watching Spencer I will not be disappointed with any thing he does and I hope none of the Hawkeye fans Monday morning quarterback his performance. That said I don’t think any one should be surprised if we see him on top.
 
Where ever Spencer stands on the podium this year will be fine with me. Going out on the mat knowing the fatigue is coming takes a certain level of guts and dedication to the team, this multiplied by him knowing what he can do at 100% has to make it hard to face. BUT he is still going to go out there and puttting it on the line for himself and for us fans. When I am out in Pittsburg this year watching Spencer I will not be disappointed with any thing he does and I hope none of the Hawkeye fans Monday morning quarterback his performance. That said I don’t think any one should be surprised if we see him on top.
This...
 
Seems like the season makes or breaks on Spencer winning number 2...because psu is clearly the number 1 team so that’s out. I get that but I think if the bull or literally anybody else wins a title, all will be well...despite placement. Lee is a specimen few have seen before. That’s a fact but the Hawkeyes season won’t be for nothing. Between Spencer, the bull and Austin, someone is bringing home that numero uno. And yes, I’m willing to bet if anybody is interested.
 
Seems like the season makes or breaks on Spencer winning number 2...because psu is clearly the number 1 team so that’s out. I get that but I think if the bull or literally anybody else wins a title, all will be well...despite placement. Lee is a specimen few have seen before. That’s a fact but the Hawkeyes season won’t be for nothing. Between Spencer, the bull and Austin, someone is bringing home that numero uno. And yes, I’m willing to bet if anybody is interested.
Agree
 
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