Which State Is The Best At Producing NCAA All-Americans?

[usarmyret2011]

Hope this wasn't already posted. Some nice statistics here in this FLO article.

http://www.flowrestling.org/article...-at-producing-ncaa-all-americans#.WR7oKmAkvcs

 

[dropster45]

"# of AA's to # of hIgh school wrestler participation", is a better indicator of state by state development.
The analysis provided here assumes that if you have a larger population base, they certainly ALL must be in or have tried the sport of wrestling. Not so. The NWCA has the state high school participant data and though there are some outliers, like say California with ~ 27k, all of the prominent "wrestling states" are in the 8-11k range.

 

[pablow]

"# of AA's to # of hIgh school wrestler participation", is a better indicator of state by state development.
The analysis provided here assumes that if you have a larger population base, they certainly ALL must be in or have tried the sport of wrestling. Not so. The NWCA has the state high school participant data and though there are some outliers, like say California with ~ 27k, all of the prominent "wrestling states" are in the 8-11k range.

Participation rates aren't perfect either because the large population states have more kids filling the participation pools. The top ten badminton players in California are going to be higher quality than the top 10 in North Dakota. The more competition to fill the participation pool, the higher the quality of the pool. Among the top high school wrestling states, there is nothing to suggest that there is any more or any less exposure to the sport in any one state. Certainly CA and NY are outliers and PA will claim that Philadelphia shouldn't count, but by and large the top wrestling states seems to be comparable in terms of exposure to wrestling.

 

[dropster45]

Participation rates aren't perfect either because the large population states have more kids filling the participation pools. The top ten badminton players in California are going to be higher quality than the top 10 in North Dakota. The more competition to fill the participation pool, the higher the quality of the pool. Among the top high school wrestling states, there is nothing to suggest that there is any more or any less exposure to the sport in any one state. Certainly CA and NY are outliers and PA will claim that Philadelphia shouldn't count, but by and large the top wrestling states seems to be comparable in terms of exposure to wrestling.

I guess, and to your point, the only way to really tell who is developing the best wrestlers is by obtaining the youth participation numbers. I'm guessing that you wouldn't find all that much variance between the top producing states (except Cali). Maybe USA Wrestling would have those numbers?

 

[pumpdog20]

The only thing you should take from this, is that as a small state Iowa rocks it in wrestling. Lately, we've considered it down. With the influence of private clubs becoming a bigger thing, I really think we're going to start seeing the overall product come way up.

 

[ak466040]

Like I post a week ago the state of iowa is just fine when it comes to high school talent. The rule by the state only letting schools being able to participate in border states makes it hard to get a kid nationally ranked. You can really see the depth being built in all 3 divisions in Iowa. That due to kids working out together at different clubs over the summer. The numbers will only go up with dresser at Iowa state. Look at how much money was raised in the last month due to another in state college challenging Iowa. If you would add in D II D III and naia AAa the results would be the same. I hope some day all three D I state colleges have line ups of all Iowa wrestlers.

 

[Ihawkd9times]

Who really cares other than click bait to get the thin skinned PSU fans riled up.

In all honesty id rather have their 40% with that population because PA is basically x3 to us.
We produce one National Champ product, they produce 3 that year.
We produce 5 legit D1 recruits, they have 15.
The numbers favor them all day as long as a team fields 10 wrestlers. Way easier for Cael to field 10 strong and save on instate. News flash this is why that caveman left. He wasn't beating Iowa to the 1 champ and was losing 4 of the 5 legit recruits to Brands. And he saw the junior high studs about ready to be ready for him.

Really its almost amazing PSU never won more than 1 title prior to Cael. Its almost like you would have to try not to win by accident with PA's sheer quality and numbers.

 

[Ihawkd9times]

"# of AA's to # of hIgh school wrestler participation", is a better indicator of state by state development.
The analysis provided here assumes that if you have a larger population base, they certainly ALL must be in or have tried the sport of wrestling. Not so. The NWCA has the state high school participant data and though there are some outliers, like say California with ~ 27k, all of the prominent "wrestling states" are in the 8-11k range.

No it is not because the talent pool is much better to pull from. Say Valley has 3000 kids enrolled and Martinsdale - St Marys has 300. Well if each team has 20 participants wouldn't Valley have a better pool to pull from and a much better chance at producing an AA because of the quality of the 20 kids training together?

 

[dropster45]

The talent pool in that state gets distributed/diluted amongst 11 D1 wrestling programs. There used to be even more.

 

[dicemen99]

Really its almost amazing PSU never won more than 1 title prior to Cael. Its almost like you would have to try not to win by accident with PA's sheer quality and numbers.

2 things contribute to that:

1. The other PA D1 colleges used to be very strong and a legitimate alternative to PSU for PA wrestlers. This is especially true of the PA state schools.

2. Gable contributed to this. PSU had some very strong teams during the Gable era. Just not strong enough to take down a dynasty. And when Gable was gone and the title was more attainable in the first decade of this century, unfortunately PSU wrestling was not equipped at the top to take advantage of this.

The first point may well have an effect on PA HS wrestling in the next generation. I'm firmly of the opinion that PA HS wrestling is where it is right now because of the accessibility of great coaching throughout the state - a byproduct of the amount of top D1 wrestling opportunities in the state over the 70s, 80s, 90s and into this century. Although D1 high level opportunity is still up there, the decline of many programs has helped to consolidate the talent and will probably lead to less AAs as a state in the long run.

Perhaps in twenty years we will be posting what took so long for "insert college from CA" to win a national title. Or maybe the University of Illinois.

 

[dropster45]

No it is not because the talent pool is much better to pull from. Say Valley has 3000 kids enrolled and Martinsdale - St Marys has 300. Well if each team has 20 participants wouldn't Valley have a better pool to pull from and a much better chance at producing an AA because of the quality of the 20 kids training together?

The only state that appears to have outsized numbers, and in this case doesn't capitalize on it very well, is CA. All the other competitive states are in the 7-12k range (with most 8-11k - bell shaped curve thingy) for high school participation.

The theory that the more populated states have worse retention rates/more kids quitting, that is having started with many, many more to begin with is NOT supported with any numbers that I've ever seen. That's why, if the question is to ask which state is developing D1 AA's at the highest rate - which I believe most people are curious on as a matter of perhaps identifying the qualities, culture, system etc implemented, as opposed to purely bragging rights - we can only do so with certainty if we have those starting numbers.

Anyone have the state by state USA Wresting PeeWee start #'s? That would help paint a clearer picture I think.

 

[Edgar Wade]

I would be curious to see this:

Total AAs by home state across all college divisions. D1 + D2 + D3, etc.

Not sure what it would show, but could be interesting as far as participation/success across the board.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Who really cares other than click bait to get the thin skinned PSU fans riled up.

In all honesty id rather have their 40% with that population because PA is basically x3 to us.
We produce one National Champ product, they produce 3 that year.
We produce 5 legit D1 recruits, they have 15.
The numbers favor them all day as long as a team fields 10 wrestlers. Way easier for Cael to field 10 strong and save on instate. News flash this is why that caveman left. He wasn't beating Iowa to the 1 champ and was losing 4 of the 5 legit recruits to Brands. And he saw the junior high studs about ready to be ready for him.

Really its almost amazing PSU never won more than 1 title prior to Cael. Its almost like you would have to try not to win by accident with PA's sheer quality and numbers.

Your last paragraph is so painful for a Pa native (and PSU fan) to read. I distinctly remember in the early 2000s reading that Minnesota had won NCAAs and cursing under my breath. "Minnesota?? What the hell is Penn State doing?"

 

[Jaybird319]

These numbers have been rehashed and discussed many times here and have been put to bed. Pennsylvania high school numbers doesn't included the freshman class. No matter there's more 8th graders as there's more 4th graders, etc, etc.

FYI, If u strictly went by High School Association numbers for PA. This would equated to 20 or 21 kids per average PA wrestling school program.

 

[pablow]

Your last paragraph is so painful for a Pa native (and PSU fan) to read. I distinctly remember in the early 2000s reading that Minnesota had won NCAAs and cursing under my breath. "Minnesota?? What the hell is Penn State doing?"

1993 PSU - Shawn Nelson, S. Abe, Cary Kolat, Russ Hughes, Troy Sunderland, Josh Robbins, Dave Hart, Kerry McCoy

 

[dropster45]

These numbers have been rehashed and discussed many times here and have been put to bed. Pennsylvania high school numbers doesn't included the freshman class. No matter there's more 8th graders as there's more 4th graders, etc, etc.

FYI, If u strictly went by High School Association numbers for PA. This would equated to 20 or 21 kids per average PA wrestling school program.

Just curious - Where was it said that PA 9th graders weren't being counted? Honest question...

 

[CradleKing26]

Lot of butthurt in the facebook comments of this article

 

[Jaybird319]

I'm not sure where I found it, maybe PIAA. This was confirmed by a PSU fan. If it's not the freshmen class then it's the senior class.

Either way the numbers list for PA doesnt seem to add up. I can't imagine the avg high school team in PA has 20/21 kids


Interesting Iowa Numbers are around 22/23 kids per team according.

 

[dropster45]

I'm not sure where I found it, maybe PIAA. This was confirmed by a PSU fan. If it's not the freshmen class then it's the senior class.

Either way the numbers list for PA doesnt seem to add up. I can't imagine the avg high school team in PA has 20/21 kids


Interesting Iowa Numbers are around 22/23 kids per team according.

Was the "PSU fan" who confirmed it by chance named Jammen?

 

[Raw Daddy]

I'm not sure where I found it, maybe PIAA. This was confirmed by a PSU fan. If it's not the freshmen class then it's the senior class.

Either way the numbers list for PA doesnt seem to add up. I can't imagine the avg high school team in PA has 20/21 kids


Interesting Iowa Numbers are around 22/23 kids per team according.

Why can't you imagine that?

 

[El-Jefe]

I'm not sure where I found it, maybe PIAA. This was confirmed by a PSU fan. If it's not the freshmen class then it's the senior class.

Either way the numbers list for PA doesnt seem to add up. I can't imagine the avg high school team in PA has 20/21 kids


Interesting Iowa Numbers are around 22/23 kids per team according.

PA has a lot of very small rural school districts. For example, Zain's HS averages 50 students per graduating class. Mason Beckman's HS has about 90 per grade.

As a Penn Stater it does pain me that my alma mater only won 1 title before Cael arrived, and could barely sniff the title when I was a student -- even leading off with Chertow, Martin, and Flynn.

I take some consolation that PA has about a dozen other D1 programs with proud histories and some big names ... Schalles, Rohn, and Angle at Clarion; Hitchcock and the Bonomos at Bloomsburg; Santoro at Pitt; Kolat at Lock Haven; Haselrig, Cuvo, Rohn, Letters, Koscheck, King, etc.

Ohio State and Rutgers don't have that excuse. Two great talent pools, almost no in-state competition, 1 total team title between them. Woof.

 

[Jaybird319]

I get what you are saying about PA and OH lack of past nationals championships. The shear numbers of close by D1 programs affected that outcome.

Zains HS numbers would put his school in upper tier of class 1A, out of a 128 other 1A schools in Iowa.

Masons HS number places his team in the middle of 2A, with 96 other 2A schools.

Leaving just 64 teams for class 3A in Iowa.


I've seen you make that post a couple of times in the past year. These examples might give you a better prospective of Iowa HS wrestling and how small Iowa schools really are.

 

[El-Jefe]

We're talking past each other. I get how small schools can be, I know that Iowa has great HS wrestling, and I'm not trying to start a who's got it worse fest.

Am only trying to convey that those PA average roster sizes are not inconceivable, despite various conceptions about PA schools.