Who has projected IOWA to make the College Football Playoff?

[Franisdaman]

Here is a story from today, Aug 19, from Brett McMurphy of the Action Network. He has Iowa making the CFP in his early preseason projections.

He has Georgia (-5.5) vs Alabama in one semi-final and Oregon vs Ohio State (-1.5) in the other semi-final. He then has Georgia (-4) beating Oregon in the National Championship game.

The 5 highest-ranked conference champions — regardless of selection committee ranking — receive an automatic bid to the playoff with the final 7 spots going to the remaining 7 highest-ranked teams.

The 4 highest-ranked conference champions receive byes into the quarterfinals and will be seeded Nos. 1-4 regardless of their selection committee ranking (even if they're “ranked” No. 3, 5, 12 and 24).


CFP First Round
#11 IOWA at #6 Georgia
Dec 21, 2024
Athens, GA
Georgia: 18.5 pt favorite


12 Team Projected CFP field:

1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Utah
______________

5 Ohio State
6 Georgia
7 Ole Miss
8 LSU
9 Penn State
10 Virginia Tech
11 IOWA
12 Texas State


Conference Breakdown:
4 B1G Teams
4 SEC Teams

2 ACC Teams

1 Big 12
1 Group of 5
________________________
12 Total Teams
==================


The Full Story:

College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy's Predictions for Week 0

Brett McMurphy dishes out his college football bowl projections and predictions ahead of Week 0's games.

www.actionnetwork.com

 

[littlez]

Here is a story from today, Aug 19, from Brett McMurphy of the Action Network. He has Iowa making the CFP in his early preseason projection.

CFP First Round
#11 IOWA at #6 Georgia
Dec 21, 2024
Athens, GA
Georgia: 18.5 pt favorite


12 Team Projected CFP field:

1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Utah
______________

5 Ohio State
6 Georgia
7 Ole Miss
8 LSU
9 Penn State
10 Virginia Tech
11 IOWA
12 Texas State


Conference Breakdown:
4 B1G Teams
4 SEC Teams

2 ACC Teams

1 Big 12
1 Group of 5


The Full Story:

College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy's Predictions for Week 0

Brett McMurphy dishes out his college football bowl projections and predictions ahead of Week 0's games.

www.actionnetwork.com

Oh lord no.

 

[reedsposer22]

Here is a story from today, Aug 19, from Brett McMurphy of the Action Network. He has Iowa making the CFP in his early preseason projections.

He has Georgia (-5.5) vs Alabama in one semi-final and Oregon vs Ohio State (-1.5) in the other semi-final. He then has Georgia (-4) beating Oregon in the National Championship game.

The 5 highest-ranked conference champions — regardless of selection committee ranking — receive an automatic bid to the playoff with the final 7 spots going to the remaining 7 highest-ranked teams.

The 4 highest-ranked conference champions receive byes into the quarterfinals and will be seeded Nos. 1-4 regardless of their selection committee ranking (even if they're “ranked” No. 3, 5, 12 and 24).


CFP First Round
#11 IOWA at #6 Georgia
Dec 21, 2024
Athens, GA
Georgia: 18.5 pt favorite


12 Team Projected CFP field:

1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Utah
______________

5 Ohio State
6 Georgia
7 Ole Miss
8 LSU
9 Penn State
10 Virginia Tech
11 IOWA
12 Texas State


Conference Breakdown:
4 B1G Teams
4 SEC Teams

2 ACC Teams

1 Big 12
1 Group of 5
________________________
12 Total Teams
==================


The Full Story:

College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy's Predictions for Week 0

Brett McMurphy dishes out his college football bowl projections and predictions ahead of Week 0's games.

www.actionnetwork.com

this is amazing, GO HAWKS, are we keeping most of our defense?

 

[BonzoFury]

Texas State?

 

[rfgiowa]

Texas State?

The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn a spot in the 12-team bracket. There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify. The rules also don't guarantee spots for certain conferences. The champions of the Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big Ten will almost certainly routinely qualify, though, along with the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA.

There is no minimum ranking requirement for the five highest-ranked conference champions. There could be a conference champion ranked No. 23, for example, that's the fifth highest-ranked league winner and earns a spot in the playoff -- at the expense of the committee's No. 12 team.

 

[BonzoFury]

The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn a spot in the 12-team bracket. There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify. The rules also don't guarantee spots for certain conferences. The champions of the Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big Ten will almost certainly routinely qualify, though, along with the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA.

There is no minimum ranking requirement for the five highest-ranked conference champions. There could be a conference champion ranked No. 23, for example, that's the fifth highest-ranked league winner and earns a spot in the playoff -- at the expense of the committee's No. 12 team.

So there’s a guaranteed slot for one of the group of 5.

 

[HawksRule73]

So there’s a guaranteed slot for one of the group of 5.

Yes, that was part of the new agreement. There will be 5 conference champions given bids. The 4 from the power conferences (B12, B10, ACC, SEC) and then the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The next 7 bids are given to the highest ranked remaining schools. The 4 power conference champions get auto byes and since ND isn't in a conference, they can never get a bye, but can get in if they are one of the next 7 highest ranked teams.

 

[Madman_1]

Yes, that was part of the new agreement. There will be 5 conference champions given bids. The 4 from the power conferences (B12, B10, ACC, SEC) and then the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The next 7 bids are given to the highest ranked remaining schools. The 4 power conference champions get auto byes and since ND isn't in a conference, they can never get a bye, but can get in if they are one of the next 7 highest ranked teams.

Actually, the way that was worded by rfgiowa: "The five highest-ranked conference champions", if accurate, means that a power conference champion might not be selected.

Imagine a year where, for example, the B12 is way down, and their conference champion is ranked 25th. During that same year, perhaps two group of 5 conference champs are ranked higher.

Not real likely, but certainly possible.

 

[BonzoFury]

Actually, the way that was worded by rfgiowa: "The five highest-ranked conference champions", if accurate, means that a power conference champion might not be selected.

Imagine a year where, for example, the B12 is way down, and their conference champion is ranked 25th. During that same year, perhaps two group of 5 conference champs are ranked higher.

Not real likely, but certainly possible

Seems very unlikely, but it handles the fairness objection. The group of 5 teams all have a shot. There would have to be a total traffic jam where several teams in a P5 all lost 3+ games. Even then strength of schedule would likely keep them ranked higher.

Just for fun I looked up the lowest ranked P5 Champs in recent history.

Big 12 -2022 KState #14 , 2013 Baylor #13, 2012 Oklahome #15
B1G - 2011 Wisconsin #11, 2010 Mich St #14
PAC -2022 Utah #11 , 2021 Utah #12, 2018 Washington #13
SEC -2005 Georgia #13
ACC - for whatever reason, WIKI didn't have this one formatted.

These are final rankings and every one of these teams lost their bowl game. So they were all likely ranked higher at end of the regular season when a playoff seed would have happened.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Iowa would have to finish 11-1 to be ranked that high (or 11-2 with a BTCG loss). They were 10-2 last season with zero quality wins and were ranked #16 going into the BTCG. They will get absolutely no benefit of the doubt from the committee. Any non-Ohio St or non-BTCG loss would essentially eliminate them.

 

[thunderstruck1]

I know I am color blind and an optimist, but I am going to make a drive tomorrow and do some futures. I actually think we have a shot of coming out of the shoe with a W. Because Cade has been there and because our defense is going to give our offense every chance in the world in every single game. I am not saying we are perfect, I am saying we have a chance to be. Opportunity is all I am offering.

 

[Franisdaman]

I know I am color blind and an optimist, but I am going to make a drive tomorrow and do some futures. I actually think we have a shot of coming out of the shoe with a W. Because Cade has been there and because our defense is going to give our offense every chance in the world in every single game. I am not saying we are perfect, I am saying we have a chance to be. Opportunity is all I am offering.

I have said it before; for the regular season, I think 11-1 is realistic and 10-2 should be the minimum.

As far as Ohio State goes, the schedule is set up nicely; we get 4 games and a bye before we head to Columbus. Hopefully in the 1st 4 games Cade stays healthy and the Iowa offense shows some life and creates some momentum.

Iowa's 2024 schedule:​

• vs. Illinois State, August 31, 2024
• vs. Iowa State, September 7, 2024
• vs. Troy, September 14, 2024
• at Minnesota, September 21, 2024

............................Sep 28 BYE.............................................

• at Ohio State, October 5, 2024
• vs. Washington, October 12, 2024
• at Michigan State, October 19, 2024
• vs. Northwestern, October 26, 2024
• vs. Wisconsin, November 2, 2024
• at UCLA, November 8, 2024

............................Nov 16 BYE.............................................

• at Maryland, November 23, 2024
• vs. Nebraska, November 29, 2024

 

[Packer54]

I have said it before; for the regular season, I think 11-1 is realistic and 10-2 should be the minimum.

As far as Ohio State goes, the schedule is set up nicely; we get 4 games and a bye before we head to Columbus. Hopefully in the 1st 4 games Cade stays healthy and the Iowa offense shows some life and creates some momentum.

Iowa's 2024 schedule:​

• vs. Illinois State, August 31, 2024
• vs. Iowa State, September 7, 2024
• vs. Troy, September 14, 2024
• at Minnesota, September 21, 2024

............................Sep 28 BYE.............................................

• at Ohio State, October 5, 2024
• vs. Washington, October 12, 2024
• at Michigan State, October 19, 2024
• vs. Northwestern, October 26, 2024
• vs. Wisconsin, November 2, 2024
• at UCLA, November 8, 2024

............................Nov 16 BYE.............................................

• at Maryland, November 23, 2024
• vs. Nebraska, November 29, 2024

Hopefully OSU will be rolling and looking ahead to @ Oregon the week after us.

 

[Titanhawk2]

Actually, the way that was worded by rfgiowa: "The five highest-ranked conference champions", if accurate, means that a power conference champion might not be selected.

Imagine a year where, for example, the B12 is way down, and their conference champion is ranked 25th. During that same year, perhaps two group of 5 conference champs are ranked higher.

Not real likely, but certainly possible.

No - the power 4 get a bid, don't have to be ranked

 

[littlez]

After looking at that schedule this might be the easiest schedule we will ever have moving forward. 1 ranked team the entire season on the schedule? We have to be favored in every game but Ohio St, correct?

 

[Madman_1]

No - the power 4 get a bid, don't have to be ranked

I did a little searching and found this:

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...rules-dates-format-selection-committee-voting

Who qualifies for the college football playoff?​

The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn a spot in the 12-team bracket. There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify. The rules also don't guarantee spots for certain conferences. The champions of the Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big Ten will almost certainly routinely qualify, though, along with the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA.

Now, I think it would be rare, but I can see a year where one of the lesser big four conferences, namely the B12 and the ACC could have a poorly ranked champion.

Another interesting thing I learned from that link: Notre Dame (and any other independent team) cannot earn a bye because they cannot win a conference.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

A decent team from the SEC or Big Ten that only has one game against a true power team is always going to be a sexy pick for the playoff.

If Iowa played Ohio St and Oregon nobody would be picking them.

 

[squeezebox]

If the hawks pull off the W against ISU, that will likely become a solid win. It would be ridiculous to host a game December 21st in Iowa City.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

With the D and schedule, we have a shot IF the O can improve to mediocre. Pretty big IF

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

If the hawks pull off the W against ISU, that will likely become a solid win. It would be ridiculous to host a game December 21st in Iowa City.

The ISU game is basically our shot at a quality ooc win....they could end up competing for the b12 championship. Lose to them and basically we're done as far as the playoff goes. Not gonna beat tOSU in the shoe.

 

[squeezebox]

The ISU game is basically our shot at a quality ooc win....they could end up competing for the b12 championship. Lose to them and basically we're done as far as the playoff goes. Not gonna beat tOSU in the shoe.

Yeah, you are probably right. I do think if the offense can move the ball at all, Iowa has a punchers shot at OSU. Howard being named their starter was a nice surprise.

 

[Franisdaman]

David Cobb of CBS Sports:

The FULL STORY:

Big Ten expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 college football season

www.cbssports.com

 

[BonzoFury]

David Cobb of CBS Sports:

The FULL STORY:

Big Ten expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 college football season

www.cbssports.com

Dodd is nuts. No way 9-3 would put Nebraska in the playoff discussion. (never mind whether they can do it).

 

[JerseyCityHawki]

Dodd is nuts. No way 9-3 would put Nebraska in the playoff discussion. (never mind whether they can do it).

Absolutely agree with that

 

[Franisdaman]

Dodd is nuts. No way 9-3 would put Nebraska in the playoff discussion. (never mind whether they can do it).

Absolutely agree with that

What are the chances Nebraska is 7-0 heading to Ohio State?

Their 2024 schedule:

Aug 31..............UTEP
Sep 7.................Colorado
Sep 14...............Northern Iowa
Fri Sep 20........Illinois
Sep 28............at Purdue
Oct 5..................Rutgers
Oct 12..............Bye
Oct 19..............at Indiana
Oct 26.............at Ohio State
Nov 2..................UCLA
Nov 9................Bye
Nov 16..............at USC
Nov 23...............Wisconsin
Fri Nov 29.......at IOWA

 

[thunderstruck1]

Well, let's think about this. 12 teams are going. 2 conferences hold almost all the good teams. So say they give 4 slots to the independents and the ACC & B12. that leaves 4 slots each for the power 2. Maybe they are extremely generous and give everyone not in the power 2, six slots, that is still 3 slots each for the power 2. So basically the top 3 teams from each of the power 2 should be in. I think we are top 3. We have to be close to number 1 or tied for it on defense. close to number 1 if not tied for it on special teams. So even if we are the 6th or 8th (middle of the pack or slightly better) best in our conference on offense, I would say we are eaisily the 3rd best in our conference. Might even be number 2. If the offense gets better as the season goes (and does not drop any games), it is possible we could be nipping at the heals of being the best team. (I get it, lot's of talented players out there, but remember, it's a team sport and we have a team.)

 

[BonzoFury]

What are the chances Nebraska is 7-0 heading to Ohio State?

Their 2024 schedule:

Aug 31..............UTEP
Sep 7.................Colorado
Sep 14...............Northern Iowa
Fri Sep 20........Illinois
Sep 28............at Purdue
Oct 5..................Rutgers
Oct 12..............Bye
Oct 19..............at Indiana
Oct 26.............at Ohio State
Nov 2..................UCLA
Nov 9................Bye
Nov 16..............at USC
Nov 23...............Wisconsin
Fri Nov 29.......at IOWA

Rutgers and Colorado would appear to be the toughest games, they get them both in Lincoln. Hard to know how big of a jump they’ll make from year one to year two but it’s not out of the question.

 

[Franisdaman]

Rutgers and Colorado would appear to be the toughest games, they get them both in Lincoln. Hard to know how big of a jump they’ll make from year one to year two but it’s not out of the question.

@MrsScrew 's Scarlet Knights better beat them!

It will be interesting to see how their freshman 5 Star starting QB performs.... It is still crazy to me how he passed on going to in-state Georgia....

 

[Franisdaman]

From Chad Leistikow:

5th-year senior
6th-year senior
5th-year senior
6th-year senior
4th-year senior
6th-year senior
6th-year senior
5th-year senior
5th-year senior
6th-year senior
5th-year senior
5th-year senior
6th-year senior
4th-year junior
5th-year senior
6th-year senior

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

What are the chances Nebraska is 7-0 heading to Ohio State?

Their 2024 schedule:

Aug 31..............UTEP
Sep 7.................Colorado
Sep 14...............Northern Iowa
Fri Sep 20........Illinois
Sep 28............at Purdue
Oct 5..................Rutgers
Oct 12..............Bye
Oct 19..............at Indiana
Oct 26.............at Ohio State
Nov 2..................UCLA
Nov 9................Bye
Nov 16..............at USC
Nov 23...............Wisconsin
Fri Nov 29.......at IOWA

OMG. If that happened, their fans would be absolutely and totally insufferable....

 

[Franisdaman]

OMG. If that happened, their fans would be absolutely and totally insufferable....

they might have finally found the right head coach

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[thunderstruck1]

@MrsScrew 's Scarlet Knights better beat them!

It will be interesting to see how their freshman 5 Star starting QB performs.... It is still crazy to me how he passed on going to in-state Georgia....

View embedded media

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The odds are not great with a freshman QB. For starters everyone is going to pin their ears back and throw all kinds of blitzs against a freshman QB. Secondly how consistent can a freshman be expected to be?? Being consistent and even keeled enough to win week after week is hard for older students, much less a freshman and especially a QB.

 

[Dauminator]

Preseason Top25. We'll see.

The odds are not great with a freshman QB. For starters everyone is going to pin their ears back and throw all kinds of blitzs against a freshman QB. Secondly how consistent can a freshman be expected to be?? Being consistent and even keeled enough to win week after week is hard for older students, much less a freshman and especially a QB.

That's the traditional view. But in the modern day, freshmen have bucked that thinking. If he can play, he can play.

 

[JerseyCityHawki]

Great thumbnail

 

[littlez]

they might have finally found the right head coach

We still have no idea if this is true.

 

[markfromj]

I doubt Iowa has taken the time to project anyone to the payoffs.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[pistachio1999]

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I did take them to beat Iowa State outright. Not on the CFP bandwagon betting wise just yet.