Why the Polls Might Be Wrong — in Kamala Harris’ Favor

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Not going to cut and paste the article but I think the hypothosis might be correct.

Polls undercounted his support in 2016 and 2020 but there's been a concerted effort by pollsters to correct for that....maybe they over corrected? That and the "silent" Trump voter isn't so silent anymore. By the same token they might be under counting the Harris support. Guess we'll see...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/01/shy-kamala-harris-voters-polling-00186653

 

[ICHerky]

Dims are hoping

 

[BlIIlken2]

 

[Tom Paris]

Dims are hoping

You voted for a rapist conman. Probably shouldn't call others dim.

 

[TennNole17]

Not going to cut and paste the article

 

[InsaneHawkJJP]

Polls can be wrong?

 

[joelbc1]

You bins are no Ciggy!

 

[mnole03]

Not going to cut and paste the article but I think the hypothosis might be correct.

Polls undercounted his support in 2016 and 2020 but there's been a concerted effort by pollsters to correct for that....maybe they over corrected? That and the "silent" Trump voter isn't so silent anymore. By the same token they might be under counting the Harris support. Guess we'll see...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/01/shy-kamala-harris-voters-polling-00186653

There was a general R+3 in sampling because of how poorly polls performed in 2016 and 2020.

There’s also reason to believe poll quality has diminished as more and more people simply won’t answer calls from unknown numbers.

That said, who knows? If I had to guess, I think the polls aren’t oversampling and Trump will probably win.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

There was a general R+3 in sampling because of how poorly polls performed in 2016 and 2020.

There’s also reason to believe poll quality has diminished as more and more people simply won’t answer calls from unknown numbers.

That said, who knows? If I had to guess, I think the polls aren’t oversampling and Trump will probably win.

I thought the same until a few days ago. I think the ladies are gonna bring it home for Harris though.

I also think there's "Trump fatigue" amongst folks that might have voted for him before, don't like Harris, but just don't want to go through 4 more years of Trump. I think the "none of the above" vote is underestimated and predominately hurts Trump.

Anecdotally I live in Trump central (panhandle) and the Trump enthusiasm is decidedly down IMO.

 

[torbee]

I thought the same until a few days ago. I think the ladies are gonna bring it home for Harris though.

I also think there's "Trump fatigue" amongst folks that might have voted for him before, don't like Harris, but just don't want to go through 4 more years of Trump. I think the "none of the above" vote is underestimated and predominately hurts Trump.

Anecdotally I live in Trump central (panhandle) and the Trump enthusiasm is decidedly down IMO.

I mean, even if you dislike Harris and generally align with what Trump's pseudo-policies stand for - at some level EVERYONE has to be like "JFC, not this chaotic shit AGAIN!" right? The man just rambles and rambles for HOURS on weird, niche vendettas and crazy ideas. That is not opinion - that is a fact anyone who has watched more than 20 seconds of his rallies knows. Who in the hell wants to see and hear that every day for four more years? Kamala is a garden variety, kinda phony, kinda boring politican-as-usual. And that sounds DEE LITE FUL about now.

I know, I know - that's a "vibe" and not hard data.

But we kind of live in an age of "vibe" now, don't we?

 

[ericram]

Not going to cut and paste the article but I think the hypothosis might be correct.

Polls undercounted his support in 2016 and 2020 but there's been a concerted effort by pollsters to correct for that....maybe they over corrected? That and the "silent" Trump voter isn't so silent anymore. By the same token they might be under counting the Harris support. Guess we'll see...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/01/shy-kamala-harris-voters-polling-00186653

Well the Rs have to make up several polls to make it look like biff is winning to set the stage for him to declare it fraudulent and throw a wet diaper on the actual results.

 

[scotihawk]

You voted for a rapist conman. Probably shouldn't call others dim.

And I'm pretty sure you voted for an empty vessel with dementia four years ago...but you go ahead and call people whatever name you like....

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I mean, even if you dislike Harris and generally align with what Trump's pseudo-policies stand for - at some level EVERYONE has to be like "JFC, not this chaotic shit AGAIN!" right?

I know, I know - that's a "vibe" and not hard data.

But we kind of live in an age of "vibe" now, don't we?

It'll be really interesting what the post election data analysis shows.

I'm thinking Trumps men advantage will be less than the polling showed and the Harris already large woman advantage will be more prenounced.

Did an unofficial poll of the ladies at work and 7 of 9 were voting Harris and I'd say over half are "conservative". Dobbs is gonna leave a mark.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

I watched this video and after seeing it my view is that the polls are basically a guestimate so I now have less stock in them than I did before.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

You voted for a rapist conman. Probably shouldn't call others dim.

Did u vote for Bill?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Well the Rs have to make up several polls to make it look like biff is winning to set the stage for him to declare it fraudulent and throw a wet diaper on the actual results.

I don't think that's it.

I think the pollsters over corrected for their mistakes in 2016/2020 and are gun shy, safest bet is to keep the polls close.

I think that's actually an advantage for Harris. Gets the vote out...

 

[mnole03]

I don't think that's it.

I think the pollsters over corrected for their mistakes in 2016/2020 and are gun shy, safest bet is to keep the polls close.

I think that's actually an advantage for Harris. Gets the vote out...

I hope you’re right.

 

[mnole03]

I mean, even if you dislike Harris and generally align with what Trump's pseudo-policies stand for - at some level EVERYONE has to be like "JFC, not this chaotic shit AGAIN!" right? The man just rambles and rambles for HOURS on weird, niche vendettas and crazy ideas. That is not opinion - that is a fact anyone who has watched more than 20 seconds of his rallies knows. Who in the hell wants to see and hear that every day for four more years? Kamala is a garden variety, kinda phony, kinda boring politican-as-usual. And that sounds DEE LITE FUL about now.

I know, I know - that's a "vibe" and not hard data.

But we kind of live in an age of "vibe" now, don't we?

A half-way reasonable Republican would be running away with this election by 10+ points.

The fact that Republicans don’t see this is insane.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Not going to cut and paste the article but I think the hypothosis might be correct.

Polls undercounted his support in 2016 and 2020 but there's been a concerted effort by pollsters to correct for that....maybe they over corrected? That and the "silent" Trump voter isn't so silent anymore. By the same token they might be under counting the Harris support. Guess we'll see...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/01/shy-kamala-harris-voters-polling-00186653

My point of interest is whether or not the adjustment to account for silent Trump voters will be accurate or not. Could lead to a surprise.

 

[spiderland]

A half-way reasonable Republican would be running away with this election by 10+ points.

The fact that Republicans don’t see this is insane.

True story. I texted my best friend from high school (for all intents and purposes my brother) last night and asked him when his party was going to run a candidate again that I could consider voting for.

His reply? That’s not my party anymore.

Understand this guy is the very DEFINITION of a Reagan Republican. If there was a picture in Webster’s for that, it would be his. Served 10 years as an officer in the US Navy. As fiscally conservative as they come. Unlike me, a true Christian through and through.

His exact words: “I love being a straight white gun-owning veteran Christian male…voting for Harris!” He may eventually come back to the GOP at some point (although he’s almost 60 now, so approaching twilight). But as of right now, he’s done.

I suspect there are others. Although I’ll admit, he’s a pretty extraordinary person.