"As of Today" Results Against Quad 1 Teams

[AuroraHawk]

After beating PSU, Iowa is now up to #25 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Losses:
Michigan State (road) - 6
Purdue (road) - 17
Wisconsin (home) - 22

Wins:
Nebraska (home) -11
Iowa State (home) - 16
Northwestern (road) - 59

IMO, barring collapses by Iowa State and Nebraska, Iowa likely has two "signature" resume enhancing home wins. Even if PSU can get its NCAA NET ranking at #75 or better, I don't really view last night's win or the win at Northwestern as "signature" resume enhancing road wins. Nice wins? Yes. Wins that an NCAA qualifier should achieve? Absolutely. However, I just don't see either as "jumping" off the resume for the Selection Committee. I also would not view winning at Minnesota or Ohio State (at least not right now) as "signature" road wins. I personally think that, while certainly on track for a bid, Iowa would greatly benefit by going into Bloomington, Lincoln or Madison and leaving with a win that would cause the committee to take notice. A road win against a top 25 NCAA NET team would really sharpen up the resume for seeding purposes.

(Beating Michigan and/or MSU at home wouldn't hurt . . . )

What I find incredible is that Iowa could go 6-7 in its last 13 games, finish 10-10 in the B1G and if those losses are: MSU, Michigan, Indiana (twice), Maryland, Wisconsin and Nebraska, it is possible that Iowa would end up 21-10 and all 10 losses would be against teams ranked by NCAA NET in the top 25.

FWIW, Iowa State's home loss to KSU (#37) and road loss to Baylor (#61) are worse than any home loss or road loss suffered by Iowa but ISU has "resume popping" wins at home against Kansas and on road against Texas Tech. The committee is going to love those wins.

 

[Birky]

Thanks for the breakdown.

Wisconsin was at home.

 

[hawkland14]

After beating PSU, Iowa is now up to #25 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Losses:
Michigan State (road) - 6
Purdue (road) - 17
Wisconsin (road) - 22

Wins:
Nebraska (home) -11
Iowa State (home) - 16
Northwestern (road) - 59

IMO, barring collapses by Iowa State and Nebraska, Iowa likely has two "signature" resume enhancing home wins. Even if PSU can get its NCAA NET ranking at #75 or better, I don't really view last night's win or the win at Northwestern as "signature" resume enhancing road wins. Nice wins? Yes. Wins that an NCAA qualifier should achieve? Absolutely. However, I just don't see either as "jumping" off the resume for the Selection Committee. I also would not view winning at Minnesota or Ohio State (at least not right now) as "signature" road wins. I personally think that, while certainly on track for a bid, Iowa would greatly benefit by going into Bloomington, Lincoln or Madison and leaving with a win that would cause the committee to take notice. A road win against a top 25 NCAA NET team would really sharpen up the resume for seeding purposes.

(Beating Michigan and/or MSU at home wouldn't hurt . . . )

What I find incredible is that Iowa could go 6-7 in its last 13 games, finish 10-10 in the B1G and if those losses are: MSU, Michigan, Indiana (twice), Maryland, Wisconsin and Nebraska, it is possible that Iowa would end up 21-10 and all 10 losses would be against teams ranked by NCAA NET in the top 25.

FWIW, Iowa State's home loss to KSU (#37) and road loss to Baylor (#61) are worse than any home loss or road loss suffered by Iowa but ISU has "resume popping" wins at home against Kansas and on road against Texas Tech. The committee is going to love those wins.

With the resume you just posted that is a 7 seed right? Hoping to stay off the 8/9 line. Would love to somehow get up to the 6 line. I think Iowa beats Indiana at home as well. I see us going 7-6.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Comparing to other current resumes, Iowa is more likely a 5 or 6. That will change as we drop more of the challenging games on our schedule and other teams pick up quality wins, but we're positioning ourselves well at the moment.

 

[Cydkar]

With the resume you just posted that is a 7 seed right? Hoping to stay off the 8/9 line. Would love to somehow get up to the 6 line. I think Iowa beats Indiana at home as well. I see us going 7-6.

Iowa's #25 "ranking" is not what is used to define the seed. #25 -#28 are not 7 seeds. These numbers are used to compare resume's. As mentioned, Iowa is probably better than a 7 seed if the field was chosen today.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Thanks for the breakdown.

Wisconsin was at home.

To quote Michael Scott: "Yeppers."
Typing too fast and no proof read . . .

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I had Iowa as a 5 before the win last night. I would imagine the combination of PSU/Illinois wins would keep them in that spot after this weekend’s action concludes. Three quadrant 1 wins and five Quadrant 2 wins, along with no bad losses, isn’t anything to sneeze at.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Comparing to other current resumes, Iowa is more likely a 5 or 6. That will change as we drop more of the challenging games on our schedule and other teams pick up quality wins, but we're positioning ourselves well at the moment.

Here's how I look at things . . .

Iowa has won every single game that it "should have won."

No one "expected" Iowa to go into East Lansing or West Lafayette and win.

I'd put Nebraska, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and maybe Northwestern on the road as "up in the air games." In other words, games that Iowa isn't expected to win, games that wouldn't "hurt" to lose but opponents that Iowa is capable of beating. Right now, Iowa is 4-1 in those games. Maybe you call those games "margin games."

And, let's be fair, no one expected Iowa to run the table against Oregon, UConn and Pitt. As it has played out, Iowa is almost certainly the better team and are solid, but not great wins.

Despite some doom and gloom, Iowa has overachieved thus far. They've won practically every "margin" game and losing to Wisconsin is nowhere near a "bad loss" - even at home.

If any Iowa fan is honest with himself/herself they would have taken these results in a heartbeat and wouldn't have bet significant money that these would be the outcomes (not even considering Garza and Cook missing playing time):
1. A perfect 11-0 non-conference record, including a win against rival ISU and winning the pre-season tournament in NYC.
2. Road losses to MSU and Purdue.
3. Road wins against PSU and Northwestern.
4. Home loss against Wisconsin.
5. Home wins against OSU and Nebraska.

The road doesn't get any easier and any rational fan should expect a number of losses coming up but I continue to be shocked at the number of people who are "ho-humming" the season thus far. To date, this has been a great season.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

The good thing about beating NW and PSU is it eliminated 2 potentially bad losses. Keep eliminating the land mines

 

[paladinhawk]

Iowa's #25 "ranking" is not what is used to define the seed. #25 -#28 are not 7 seeds. These numbers are used to compare resume's. As mentioned, Iowa is probably better than a 7 seed if the field was chosen today.

If you can provide a link to back up your assertion I'd like to see it:

“The NCAA Men’s Basketball Committee has had helpful metrics it has used over the years, and will continue to use the team sheets, but those will now be sorted by the NCAA Evaluation Tool,” Gavitt said. “As has always been the case, the committee won’t solely focus on metrics to select at-large teams and seed the field. There will always be a subjective element to the tournament selection process, too.”

It certainly sounds like metrics will be the primary consideration to seed teams. The selection committee will get a lot of grief if the seeding is largely different than the final NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ed-ncaa-adopts-new-college-basketball-ranking

 

[hawkland14]

Here's how I look at things . . .

Iowa has won every single game that it "should have won."

No one "expected" Iowa to go into East Lansing or West Lafayette and win.

I'd put Nebraska, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and maybe Northwestern on the road as "up in the air games." In other words, games that Iowa isn't expected to win, games that wouldn't "hurt" to lose but opponents that Iowa is capable of beating. Right now, Iowa is 4-1 in those games. Maybe you call those games "margin games."

And, let's be fair, no one expected Iowa to run the table against Oregon, UConn and Pitt. As it has played out, Iowa is almost certainly the better team and are solid, but not great wins.

Despite some doom and gloom, Iowa has overachieved thus far. They've won practically every "margin" game and losing to Wisconsin is nowhere near a "bad loss" - even at home.

If any Iowa fan is honest with himself/herself they would have taken these results in a heartbeat and wouldn't have bet significant money that these would be the outcomes (not even considering Garza and Cook missing playing time):
1. A perfect 11-0 non-conference record, including a win against rival ISU and winning the pre-season tournament in NYC.
2. Road losses to MSU and Purdue.
3. Road wins against PSU and Northwestern.
4. Home loss against Wisconsin.
5. Home wins against OSU and Nebraska.

The road doesn't get any easier and any rational fan should expect a number of losses coming up but I continue to be shocked at the number of people who are "ho-humming" the season thus far. To date, this has been a great season.

Absolute fantastic analysis. Agree with everything said here.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

As it stands right now, Iowa has 9 Quad-1, 1 Quad-2 and 3 Quad-3 games remaining.

If Iowa wins all 4 Quad-2/3 games (IL, NW, @ Rut, Rut) and goes 3-6 in the remaining Quad-1 games, that's a 22-win season and a solid NCAA bid, probably keeping our NET ranking about where it is now.

Now, if Iowa wants to get into the Tourney above what I refer to as the "Dead Zone" of #7-10 seed (where most are projecting us now) then they'll have to do better than that (pick up an additional 1-2 wins during reg season, make some noise in the BTT, have a win against MIch or MSU on the resume somewhere, etc).

Sure hope these guys are up to the task. I really want me some March Madness excitement for a change.....

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I want the Hawks to get to the Big Dance as much as anyone, but for now I am just enjoying the feeling of winning games - even some B1G road games. The feeling of hopelessness when starting a game is starting to fade!

 

[Randall Stanhope]

To quote Michael Scott: "Yeppers."
Typing too fast and no proof read . . .

Jan: "What did I tell you about "yeppers" ??"

Michael: "I don't remem...."

Jan: "I told you to quit saying it! Do you remember that?"

Michael: "Yaaysh"

 

[Hawksfor3]

. I personally think that, while certainly on track for a bid, Iowa would greatly benefit by going into Bloomington, Lincoln or Madison and leaving with a win that would cause the committee to take notice.

After what Illinois did to Minny last night, I'd settle for one of the other two.

 

[Hawktagonapus]

It certainly sounds like metrics will be the primary consideration to seed teams. The selection committee will get a lot of grief if the seeding is largely different than the final NET rankings.

Sounds more like "We will mostly use the rankings, but we will continue to favor the blue bloods whenever possible."