Rosters with more talent than Iowa's on paper:
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
UCLA
USC
Rutgers
Oregon
Purdue
Maryland
and maybe even Illinois who had to replace an All American, 2 All Big Ten players, a 4* center, and a 3 specialist.
I predicted no tourney last season. I don't see us making it this season either even in a down league. There's just not enough there.
This list in only true if Payton stays in the draft. If Payton comes back, the list of teams that are better on paper than Iowa shrinks dramatically IMO. Also, WTF are you seeing in Illinois? Because outside of Boswell and
maybe incoming freshman Morez Johnson that is a trash roster. Torvik actually agrees with me as they are one of the worst rated teams in the Big Ten on his preseason algorithm.
For fun, here's a list of teams that I think will be better on paper when Payton returns:
Indiana, Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, probably Oregon, and maybe Rutgers, though I think they have a serious issue with having only Ogbole (who barely played last year) or incoming Frosh Lathan Sommerville as the only bigs on the roster. And from all accounts, they aren't really in on anyone big still left in the portal. Bailey and Harper are going to have to carry heavy loads for them to be a tournament team IMO, which isn't something that usually works relying on freshman in 2024--even highly regarded ones.
MSU--on paper they are worse than last year. And they weren't that good last season. I live in Omaha and have hooped with Fidler plenty. That dude is soft as butter and I honestly cannot believe he is going to play in the Big Ten. Booker and Fears will need to take huge Sophomore jumps in order for them to be good.
USC--it's the same issue that Muss had last year at Arky. That roster is what some here would expect Fran's ideal roster to be--no guards, no real Center and a bunch of 6'6-6'8 dudes who don't really shoot all that well. We'll see how it is in practicality but honestly I think it has real mess potential.
Maryland--I am high on Gillespie but I don't think he actually is better than Jahmir Young so that's a downgrade right there. Derek Queen is interesting, but again, Freshmen which I'm of the "need to see it first" mindset especially after being so high on Maryland last offseason due to loving Harris-Smith and Kaiser out of high school. Also am convinced that Willard is just not very good as a coach. It's a make or break year for him at MD so it'll be interesting to see if he can do anything.
One absent from your list that I'm surprised by is Ohio State. The pieces are at least interesting to me. Lots of upside, but has the potential to be another disaster where the bottom falls out like the last couple of years.
And honestly, there isn't really a dumpster fire team on paper in this league, even if I think that a couple of them have real potential to be when it's all said and done. I get that it's very easy to be ooing and oggling over the shiny new transfers that each team is bringing in--but as far as
returning players I truly don't think there is a better trio on paper than Payton, Dix and Freeman. They are proven Big Ten players at this point and I think Iowa has the chance to really be competitive this year because of that. Of course, that assumes that Payton returns.