346 D1 basketball programs
4,498 D1 basketball scholarships (346 X 13)
As of Tuesday, May 5th, there had been 590 players on D1 basketball scholarships on 2014/15 rosters who have announced intentions to transfer according to verbalcommits.com
By now, it's even closer to 600.
The link below is updated daily.
http://www.verbalcommits.com/transfers/2015
Not All D1's are Created Equal
346 D1 programs across 32 conferences, with 4 independents. Take the 5 Power Conferences, plus the Big East, Atlantic Ten, American, Missouri Valley, West Coast, and Mountain West, and that's about 140 schools. So, 40% of D1 basketball schools might be considered "big time," with the majority struggling for relevancy. Consider this when we look at the numbers, below, because they are not broken down by Power Conference/Mid Major and those below.
13% of scholarship players on 2014/15 D1 rosters have currently announced intentions to leave their school. This percentage will grow, as transfers are announced daily. Last year the percentage ended up being 16%.
This means, the average D1 program sees 2 players transfer out annually.
Considering an estimated 20% of scholarship players graduate or use up their eligibility every year since players have five years to play 4, between transfers and graduation, the average program brings in 4.5 new players every year to form a 13 man roster.
66% of the currently announced D1 transfers have yet to say where they are going (387)
Of the just over 200 D1 transfers that have said where they are going,
100 downgraded to D1 schools from lesser conferences (50% of announced transfers)
60 moved laterally to other D1 schools (30% of announced transfers)
30 downgraded to a lower level (D2, D3, NAIA, JUCO) (15% of announced transfers)
10 upgraded to better programs (5% of announced transfers)
Whom am I to make such a broad pronouncement, since upgrade, lateral and downgrade include a form of subjectivity? Good question, so, let me describe my definitions.
Yes, the difference between a LATERAL MOVE and a D1 DOWN GRADE MOVE has some gray area. I am choosing to define LATERAL as:
Power 5 conference to Power 5 conference, like Louisville/Georgetown, Arkansas & Marquette to Iowa State, or
Power 5 Conference to significant Mid Major Duke/SMU
Power 5 Conference to a perennial hoop power, like Washington to Gonzaga, or,
A currently successful mid major to a recently down Power 5 school, like Illinois State to Minnesota, or
A currently down Power 5 Conference to a sure fire, good in the near term small school, like Alabama to Georgia State.
Another reason LATERALS might seem high is because regionalism and relevance can make things a little murky. What to call Texas St to St. Mary's TX, Maryland Eastern Shore to Fayettville State, or Lamar to West Alabama? I termed it lateral. Those living closer to those schools might have other ideas.
A D1 DOWN GRADE would be a player going to a school in a demonstrably lesser conference, like Iowa State to Loyola, Marquette to Liberty, Minnesota to Cal Poly, and Alabama to Texas Rio Grande Valley.
10 student athletes OBVIOUSLY upgraded to bigger programs, like Cornell to UConn, Drexel and Cleveland State to Louisville, Brown & Coppin St to Pittsburgh, San Francisco to Arizona, Buffalo to Arizona State. (Yes, Buffalo was in the NCAA this year, ASU wasn't, but ASU has made it 14 times, and has produced pros like James Harden, Byron Scott, Fat Lever, and more).
To use election terms, with only one third of the precincts reporting, it will be interesting to see if the current returns hold their percentages when more D1 transfers announce their new locales. My guess is there is a top to bottom reality in play. The big time programs go first, the D1 bottom feeders next, and the non D1's at the end. Another reality yet to reveal itself is that many "transfers" are quitting the game altogether. 16% of D1 transfers are red shirt seniors (RS SR's) who will play a 5th year somewhere else, or not at all. The reality likely is, many of these have no intention of lacing it up in 2015/16, but announced they were transferring per the urging of their coach so a scholarship could be freed. More on Red Shirt Senior Transfers, later.
A reminder, this exercise concerns D1 Transfers and where they are heading.
It does not incorporate D2's, D3's, NAIA & JUCO's coming in.
D1 Transfers By the Numbers
34% of the 590 announced D1 transfers have already red shirted (202)
98 Red shirt SR represents 16% of transfers, 50% of red shirts
38 Red shirt JR represents 6% of transfers, 19% of red shirts
50 Red shirt Soph represents 8.5% of transfers, 25% of red shirts
16 Red shirt Frosh represents 3% of transfers, 8% of red shirts
66% will be sitting out a year for the first time (388)
147 Sr's 25% of transfers
137 Jr's 23% of transfers104 Sophs 18% of transfers
48% of D1 transfers will have 1 year of eligibility left (RS SR's, SR's & RSJR's)
31% of D1 transfers will have 2 years of eligibility left (JR's & RSO's)
21% of D1 transfers will have 3 years of eligibility left if they go to a D1 program. (18% SO's, 3% RS FR's, although the red shirt Freshman could play 4 years if they downgrade a level, say Brady Ellingson went to D2 Upper Iowa)
300 forwards 60% were "bigs," forwards or centers
50 centers
250 guards 40%
These percentages make sense, as it represents the same percentage of positions on all rosters, 40% guards, 40% forwards, 20% centers.
Interesting side note, 20 transfers are under 6 feet tall (3%). Trey Dickerson for example was listed as 6 ft. Which makes one wonder, what % players on D1 rosters are LISTED under 6 feet?
Analyzing the 2015 D1 Transfer Numbers
80% of D1 transfers are upperclassmen.
50% have just one year of eligibility.
Two thirds were considered legitimate players from the start and have gotten playing time and didn't red shirt. This makes sense though, since they will execute their sit out year, now.
One third have already red shirted, and, rather than sitting out another year at a D1 school, are likely transferring to a lower level where they can play right away.
Six percent of D1 Transfers are locked into downgrading to a lower level, as red shirt Jrs have to play right away, and can't do that at a D1 school.
Less than 20 of the 30 declared D1 Transfers that are going to lower levels are heading to JUCOs, so the D1-JUCO-back to D1 route may not be common, although it could be a explained by the fact 2/3 of transfers haven't announced where they are going yet, and a high percentage could be going the JC route, with hopes of returning to D1.
I didn't take the time to break it down, but it would be interesting to know how many transfers left programs due to a coach coming in that didn't recruit them. Maybe I'll do that in August when the smoke clears.
If I take the time to really analyze this when the smoke clears in August, I imagine the prototypical D1 transfer is an upperclassmen taller than 6-5 who got limited playing time and knows or senses younger players are better, or will be, so downgrades to a lower level or program. Height is valued in D1, so unskilled projects are given a chance, but after 2 or 3 years hope and optimism give way to stark reality, and player and coach part ways, with the player often replaced by another project.
Red Shirt Senior Transfers
A red shirt senior is a player who has a 5th year of eligibility and is going to execute it at another school.
Since most red shirts sit out their first year, it's probably fair to assume the majority of these players were projects. Rarely is a red shirt senior D1 transfer someone who was a regular starter in 2014/15, since if they were, why transfer? All are looking for a place where they can play and make significant contributions, usually for the first time.
If they are in good standing with their school and coaching staff and will graduate, the coach will help place them at a lower level school where the student athlete can play, like Darius Stokes migration from Iowa to Farleigh Dickinson last year.
Occasionally a red shirt senior can transfer in his last year and become a significant contributor in a nationally relevant way, such as when former City High Little Hawk Malcolm Moore helped UW-Milwaukee make the tournament last year. However, most red shirt senior D1 transfers toil in obscurity, but do it on the floor at a lesser program or lower level, rather than from the bench at a higher program.
This year's 5th year red shirts were high school graduates in 2011. Most are graduating this spring, and if they choose to transfer, must pursue post graduate studies. They are eligible right away.
Grades - It's Not Always about Playing Time
There is a myriad of reasons why players transfer. It is commonly assumed playing time is the reason, but sometimes student athletes struggle to remain academically eligible, so have to transfer. There is no way to know from the data presented how often that is a factor.
Thoughts, and comments are welcome.
4,498 D1 basketball scholarships (346 X 13)
As of Tuesday, May 5th, there had been 590 players on D1 basketball scholarships on 2014/15 rosters who have announced intentions to transfer according to verbalcommits.com
By now, it's even closer to 600.
The link below is updated daily.
http://www.verbalcommits.com/transfers/2015
Not All D1's are Created Equal
346 D1 programs across 32 conferences, with 4 independents. Take the 5 Power Conferences, plus the Big East, Atlantic Ten, American, Missouri Valley, West Coast, and Mountain West, and that's about 140 schools. So, 40% of D1 basketball schools might be considered "big time," with the majority struggling for relevancy. Consider this when we look at the numbers, below, because they are not broken down by Power Conference/Mid Major and those below.
13% of scholarship players on 2014/15 D1 rosters have currently announced intentions to leave their school. This percentage will grow, as transfers are announced daily. Last year the percentage ended up being 16%.
This means, the average D1 program sees 2 players transfer out annually.
Considering an estimated 20% of scholarship players graduate or use up their eligibility every year since players have five years to play 4, between transfers and graduation, the average program brings in 4.5 new players every year to form a 13 man roster.
66% of the currently announced D1 transfers have yet to say where they are going (387)
Of the just over 200 D1 transfers that have said where they are going,
100 downgraded to D1 schools from lesser conferences (50% of announced transfers)
60 moved laterally to other D1 schools (30% of announced transfers)
30 downgraded to a lower level (D2, D3, NAIA, JUCO) (15% of announced transfers)
10 upgraded to better programs (5% of announced transfers)
Whom am I to make such a broad pronouncement, since upgrade, lateral and downgrade include a form of subjectivity? Good question, so, let me describe my definitions.
Yes, the difference between a LATERAL MOVE and a D1 DOWN GRADE MOVE has some gray area. I am choosing to define LATERAL as:
Power 5 conference to Power 5 conference, like Louisville/Georgetown, Arkansas & Marquette to Iowa State, or
Power 5 Conference to significant Mid Major Duke/SMU
Power 5 Conference to a perennial hoop power, like Washington to Gonzaga, or,
A currently successful mid major to a recently down Power 5 school, like Illinois State to Minnesota, or
A currently down Power 5 Conference to a sure fire, good in the near term small school, like Alabama to Georgia State.
Another reason LATERALS might seem high is because regionalism and relevance can make things a little murky. What to call Texas St to St. Mary's TX, Maryland Eastern Shore to Fayettville State, or Lamar to West Alabama? I termed it lateral. Those living closer to those schools might have other ideas.
A D1 DOWN GRADE would be a player going to a school in a demonstrably lesser conference, like Iowa State to Loyola, Marquette to Liberty, Minnesota to Cal Poly, and Alabama to Texas Rio Grande Valley.
10 student athletes OBVIOUSLY upgraded to bigger programs, like Cornell to UConn, Drexel and Cleveland State to Louisville, Brown & Coppin St to Pittsburgh, San Francisco to Arizona, Buffalo to Arizona State. (Yes, Buffalo was in the NCAA this year, ASU wasn't, but ASU has made it 14 times, and has produced pros like James Harden, Byron Scott, Fat Lever, and more).
To use election terms, with only one third of the precincts reporting, it will be interesting to see if the current returns hold their percentages when more D1 transfers announce their new locales. My guess is there is a top to bottom reality in play. The big time programs go first, the D1 bottom feeders next, and the non D1's at the end. Another reality yet to reveal itself is that many "transfers" are quitting the game altogether. 16% of D1 transfers are red shirt seniors (RS SR's) who will play a 5th year somewhere else, or not at all. The reality likely is, many of these have no intention of lacing it up in 2015/16, but announced they were transferring per the urging of their coach so a scholarship could be freed. More on Red Shirt Senior Transfers, later.
A reminder, this exercise concerns D1 Transfers and where they are heading.
It does not incorporate D2's, D3's, NAIA & JUCO's coming in.
D1 Transfers By the Numbers
34% of the 590 announced D1 transfers have already red shirted (202)
98 Red shirt SR represents 16% of transfers, 50% of red shirts
38 Red shirt JR represents 6% of transfers, 19% of red shirts
50 Red shirt Soph represents 8.5% of transfers, 25% of red shirts
16 Red shirt Frosh represents 3% of transfers, 8% of red shirts
66% will be sitting out a year for the first time (388)
147 Sr's 25% of transfers
137 Jr's 23% of transfers104 Sophs 18% of transfers
48% of D1 transfers will have 1 year of eligibility left (RS SR's, SR's & RSJR's)
31% of D1 transfers will have 2 years of eligibility left (JR's & RSO's)
21% of D1 transfers will have 3 years of eligibility left if they go to a D1 program. (18% SO's, 3% RS FR's, although the red shirt Freshman could play 4 years if they downgrade a level, say Brady Ellingson went to D2 Upper Iowa)
300 forwards 60% were "bigs," forwards or centers
50 centers
250 guards 40%
These percentages make sense, as it represents the same percentage of positions on all rosters, 40% guards, 40% forwards, 20% centers.
Interesting side note, 20 transfers are under 6 feet tall (3%). Trey Dickerson for example was listed as 6 ft. Which makes one wonder, what % players on D1 rosters are LISTED under 6 feet?
Analyzing the 2015 D1 Transfer Numbers
80% of D1 transfers are upperclassmen.
50% have just one year of eligibility.
Two thirds were considered legitimate players from the start and have gotten playing time and didn't red shirt. This makes sense though, since they will execute their sit out year, now.
One third have already red shirted, and, rather than sitting out another year at a D1 school, are likely transferring to a lower level where they can play right away.
Six percent of D1 Transfers are locked into downgrading to a lower level, as red shirt Jrs have to play right away, and can't do that at a D1 school.
Less than 20 of the 30 declared D1 Transfers that are going to lower levels are heading to JUCOs, so the D1-JUCO-back to D1 route may not be common, although it could be a explained by the fact 2/3 of transfers haven't announced where they are going yet, and a high percentage could be going the JC route, with hopes of returning to D1.
I didn't take the time to break it down, but it would be interesting to know how many transfers left programs due to a coach coming in that didn't recruit them. Maybe I'll do that in August when the smoke clears.
If I take the time to really analyze this when the smoke clears in August, I imagine the prototypical D1 transfer is an upperclassmen taller than 6-5 who got limited playing time and knows or senses younger players are better, or will be, so downgrades to a lower level or program. Height is valued in D1, so unskilled projects are given a chance, but after 2 or 3 years hope and optimism give way to stark reality, and player and coach part ways, with the player often replaced by another project.
Red Shirt Senior Transfers
A red shirt senior is a player who has a 5th year of eligibility and is going to execute it at another school.
Since most red shirts sit out their first year, it's probably fair to assume the majority of these players were projects. Rarely is a red shirt senior D1 transfer someone who was a regular starter in 2014/15, since if they were, why transfer? All are looking for a place where they can play and make significant contributions, usually for the first time.
If they are in good standing with their school and coaching staff and will graduate, the coach will help place them at a lower level school where the student athlete can play, like Darius Stokes migration from Iowa to Farleigh Dickinson last year.
Occasionally a red shirt senior can transfer in his last year and become a significant contributor in a nationally relevant way, such as when former City High Little Hawk Malcolm Moore helped UW-Milwaukee make the tournament last year. However, most red shirt senior D1 transfers toil in obscurity, but do it on the floor at a lesser program or lower level, rather than from the bench at a higher program.
This year's 5th year red shirts were high school graduates in 2011. Most are graduating this spring, and if they choose to transfer, must pursue post graduate studies. They are eligible right away.
Grades - It's Not Always about Playing Time
There is a myriad of reasons why players transfer. It is commonly assumed playing time is the reason, but sometimes student athletes struggle to remain academically eligible, so have to transfer. There is no way to know from the data presented how often that is a factor.
Thoughts, and comments are welcome.
