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*** GAME THREAD: Iowa MBB vs #12 Illinois ***

RossWB

HR Heisman
Staff
Feb 1, 2006
5,969
3,368
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WHO: #12 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-8, 13-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Sunday, March 10)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Illinois -1.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Illinois -3 (ILL 90, Iowa 87; ILL 60% of winning)

A late season surge -- four wins in five games -- has dramatically boosted the odds of Iowa making it back to the NCAA Tournament for what would effectively be a sixth straight season (the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but Iowa was in strong position to earn at-large bid until that season was prematurely ended). There's still work to do, though, as the Hawkeyes still sit on the wrong side of the bubble -- just 10 brackets in the Bracket Project's 2024 Bracket Matrix include Iowa as of this morning. Most bracketologists have Iowa among the "First Four Out" teams at present.

That makes the stakes for Sunday's regular season finale against #12 Illinois pretty clear: a win over a team of Illinois' caliber would likely move Iowa to the right side of the bubble entering championship week. It's not as simple as "win and in" because a quick flameout at the Big Ten Tournament this coming week could burst Iowa's bubble.

A loss to the Illini would significantly reduce Iowa's available paths to the NCAA Tournament -- the Hawkeyes would need a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, if not a win in the event itself. A run though the Big Ten Tournament could involve another game against Illinois, and if a return trip to the NCAA Tournament involves beating Illinois, there isn't likely to be a better opportunity to do so than this game. Iowa has the benefit of home court and a sellout crowd, as well as over a week's worth of rest since last playing (an 87-80 win over Northwestern last Saturday).

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