March 14 Joe Lunardi / ESPN Bracketology: IOWA is on the Bubble (7th Team OUT). #59 NET Ranking (8th Best in B1G) on March 14
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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Long ass way to go to even get hopes up. They have to beat a couple of the top teams in the conference to even get a sniff.
I have a hard time thinking this team can make the cut this year, but it’s fun to at least be in the conversation during a rebuilding year. Who knows, but I think that Michigan loss is really a killer for our chances. Man, the Big really sucks. Root for Seton Hall!
Can this team win 10 conference games? Even that won't be enough....most likely need to be 11-9 going into Big 10 tourney. Cheers and GO HAWKS!
Team that beat Nebraska last night is tournament-caliber.
What’s frustrating is once again the defense. They seem more invested in it this year, but seem to breakdown at worst moments in possession, gamble for balls they shouldn’t, etc.
What’s frustrating is once again the defense. They seem more invested in it this year, but seem to breakdown at worst moments in possession, gamble for balls they shouldn’t, etc.
On KenPom currently, Iowa is favored in 8 of their next 9 games. However, 5 of those Iowa is favored by 2 or less points. If we win all of the games the 'lytics say we will, Iowa will finish 11-9 in the conference: sweeping Minnesota, Penn St, Maryland + @ Indiana, @ UM and v OSU is what we are technically favored in as it stands today.
Gotta start with taking down the Gophers. Really big ballgame
I don't care what anyone says I always get excited whenever Iowa is in the mix. This team was in similar territory last season and they finished strong until they didn't. I see a lot of winnable games coming up
Bracketology in January is not even as reliable as astrology...
Something is wrong here. We’re favored at Michigan when they pounded us in IC?
The problem with our remaining schedule is potential quality wins available. The B10 is not good this year, if we don’t beat Purdue we won’t have another Q1 opportunity until Wisconsin on February 17.
That’s partly how bad that loss was; Michigan is not good this year, and another player for them was recently suspended.
Analytics don't really care about head to head. It's just a computer spitting out numbers.
And to be honest, since a lot of the road games are the games in which KenPom has Iowa favored by a point or 2, I'm willing to bet that Vegas will have those lines flipped in favor of the home team.
100%. Our schedule is very backloaded this year--5 of the last 6 games are Q1. Which, in theory could be a good thing if Iowa keeps improving over the next month. But Iowa really has to start banking wins now since we are in this stretch of 6 Q2, 2 Q3 and Purdue. Probably need a 6-3/7-2 type record in this stretch with no losses to the Q3 teams in order to be in the mix still in mid-February.
There are a lot of teams that can't be completely ruled out of making the tourney at this point. Listing Iowa as one isn't unreasonable. If you're putting odds on them making it they're pretty low. I'd say 10% as a WAG.
They will need to pull off a pretty big run to get in. Upset of wisky and/or pu as well as finishing the league with a minimum of 11 wins for bubble consideration at the end. Can they go 9-6 the rest of the way with at least one of those wins over pu or wisky? I wouldn't bet money on it happening.
They will need to pull off a pretty big run to get in. Upset of wisky and/or pu as well as finishing the league with a minimum of 11 wins for bubble consideration at the end. Can they go 9-6 the rest of the way with at least one of those wins over pu or wisky? I wouldn't bet money on it happening.
I think you are overrating what it takes to get into the tournament. The bubble is terrible every year--we absolutely do not "have" to beat Purdue or Wisconsin to get in. I'm a strong believer that 11 conference wins is usually safe--that typically leads to a strong enough Q1&2 combined record to beat out the decent mid-majors, the 10th place B12 team, etc in order to sneak in.
If you get to 11 with a high Q1A win, at that point you are probably in very safely without even a sweat IMO. The important thing to remember is that the tournament committee doesn't just get to arbitrarily say they are only taking 60 teams this year because the bottom 8 suck. And with how bad the mid-major conferences have been this year apart from the MWC, the Big Ten will likely get 7 or 8 teams into the field just by default.
11-9 conference record I think would have us in, but potentially vulnerable if there are upsets in conference tournaments that steal auto-bids.
I haven’t seen - what is the b10 ranked compared to other conferences? If it grades out poorer that might hurt the number of at-large bids it might get; a la a decade or so back when b10 only got 4 bids.
IOWA needs to defend home court, steal a win at MN or PSU, and go 2-1 in the B1G tourney
wont do that with PMac playing +20m a game
If our outside shooting improves it won’t matter how much Patrick scores - he was more active it seemed Friday. That guy can earn 20min/game.
The Big 10 is 4th behind the B12, SEC and BE on KenPom. But way ahead of 5th (ACC). The B10 has not gotten fewer than 8 teams in since they switched to 20 games and averages closer to 9 since that move.
The big switch that happened recently is the mid majors are severely watered down now, especially since the B12 added a few of the good AAC teams--the AAC is basically a 2-bid league this year, the A10 has been a shell of it's old self in recent years (Dayton is the only real at-large hope), and the Valley is the only other league that has at-large hopes that isn't the MWC. Now, the MWC is a very good (and fun to watch) conference this year, but they are already starting to cannibalize each other--they currently have 6 teams with realistic shots at bids, but I'm willing to bet it's narrowed down to 4 or 5 here in the next couple of months. So with all of this, there's a good chance the power 6 are splitting 30ish at-large spots which inevitably means that very mediocre B10, SEC and B12 teams are getting spots.
yep, its fun talking about being in the mix for another NCAA Tournament
Honestly, while I thought we’d be a bit better at this point, the only game imo we should have won but didn’t was Michigan. At least we don’t have an eastern Illinois—level loss.
Another good win by Seton Hall yesterday, they are tied for first in the Big East. That win for us may turn out to be huge in the end if we’re on the bubble. IF Michigan at home is our worst loss, that’s not terrible.
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Today's NET Rankings.
Iowa now 5th best in the B1G.
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
Iowa now 5th best in the B1G.
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
| 3 | 3 | Purdue | Big Ten | 15-2 | 1-2 | 5-0 | 9-0 | 6-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| 11 | 11 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 13-3 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 9-1 | 4-3 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| 16 | 16 | Illinois | Big Ten | 12-4 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 9-2 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| 22 | 22 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 10-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 9-2 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| 48 | 58 | Iowa | Big Ten | 11-6 | 1-4 | 2-1 | 8-1 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 7-0 |
| 51 | 47 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 12-5 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 8-2 | 1-1 | 0-4 | 6-0 | 5-0 |
| 54 | 53 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 13-4 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 11-1 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
| 69 | 69 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 12-4 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 8-1 | 3-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 6-1 |
| 86 | 92 | Michigan | Big Ten | 7-10 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| 93 | 94 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 9-7 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 8-1 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 97 | 90 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 12-5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 11-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 9-0 |
| 98 | 97 | Indiana | Big Ten | 12-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 10-1 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| 100 | 99 | Maryland | Big Ten | 11-6 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 7-0 |
| 128 | 125 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 8-9 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 8-2 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 2-1 | 5-1 |
At least our NET is moving in the right direction and no BAD Quad 4 losses (7-0).
I wish we had a Quad 1 win, however (we're 0-5 atm).
Anyone looked to see how many opportunities we have left? Aside from Purdue obviously.
Iowa is 11-6 and has 14 regular season games left.
We have six Quad 1 opportunities.
Quad 1: Home (1-30), Neutral (1-50), Away (1-75)
vs # 3 Purdue
vs #11 Wisconsin
at #22 Michigan State
at #16 Illinois
at #69 N'western
vs # 16 Illinois
Quad 2: Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100), Away (76-135)
at # 86 Michigan
at # 98 Indiana
vs #51 Ohio State
at #128 Penn St
at #100 Maryland
Quad 3: Home (76-160), Neutral (101-200), Away (136-240)
vs # 100 Maryland
vs #97 Minnesota
vs #128 Penn State
Quad 4: Home (161-363), Neutral (201-363), Away (241-363)
n/a
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starts with Purdue on Saturday
this is where I wish we had Ogundele to get in Edey's way
starts with Purdue on Saturday
this is where I wish we had Ogundele to get in Edey's way
I’ll give Iowa and Fran credit tho - they’re looking a lot more resilient now than a month ago.
That start last night was reminiscent of the start at ISU when they folded almost immediately. Was impressed they bounce back and won comfortably.
Minnesota took a 10-1 lead barely 3 minutes into the game. Iowa then led by 7 at half. That was a nice 16 point swing.
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