Others have commented, but in case some were looking for a continuation of last year's posts here's my 2 cents.
I avoided comment after the exhibition for fear that it wasn't entirely representative, and to some degree that was the case.
I avoided comment after the exhibition for fear that it wasn't entirely representative, and to some degree that was the case.
- Overall impression was quite good - I can't recall feeling this impressed with a season opening effort by an Iowa team. That doesn't mean this is necessarily a great team, but was very impressed with the consistent effort throughout and how clearly the team's new image came through. Thought their execution was higher than I would have expected with so many new pieces, new roles and adjusted schemes.
- Iowa is going to push the pace this year, that's pretty clear. Iowa was ranked 93rd in adjusted Tempo last season on Kenpom, and 77th the year prior - both of which are quite high given the fact that we featured Garza both seasons. Iowa was 88th three season's ago. The fastest Tempo I can find is 29th in 2014, and I think we could beat that this year. We were as low as 209th in 2015. I think we could be as high as 25th this season, although the Big 10 makes anything higher than that fairly difficult given the coaching and competition level.
- Iowa was 3rd in Adjusted Offensive efficiency last season, and 5th the year before that. We should drop off this season, so perhaps 30th to 40th or so would be a fair expectation there. We were 15th 3 years ago, 19th before that, and the 43rd, 25th, 30th, 5th, 58th, 39th and 161st. So Fran knows offense.
- Iowa was 75th in Adjusted Defensive efficiency last season, and 97th the year prior. Before that we were 111th, 242nd, 123rd, 30th, 34th, 77th, 24th, 205th and 56th. A fair expectation might be around 50th - could be higher but our lack of rim protection and defensive rebounding make me cautious here.
- If we were 35th in Adj Off, 50th in Adj Def, and 30th in Tempo, then based on historical results of other teams Iowa would be Oklahoma from last year: 39th overall (KenPom) and an 8th seed in the NCAA (their Tempo was much lower at 228th though). We could end up in the low 20's and a 5 or 6 seed if we can finish above .500 in the B10 but it's a rough, rough league.
- Rebraca - did some guard like things that surprised me. Brought the ball up court after a defensive rebound, reached around on a baseline drive and poked the ball away from a dribble driver, moved very well. Sometimes confused him with Patrick actually, even though he's clearly heavier. His favorite move inside is a move to his left followed by a counter pivot back to his right hand for a baby hook from 5-8 feet. He can rely on that against bigger defenders, but had a good drive and kick out for a 3 and looks like he will be a good "glue" piece who may not average double digits like I thought but will still give you 8 and 6 and a bunch of hustle stats while banging against bigger Centers.
- Keegan - not much to say here but clearly showing people why the NBA scouts had him on their radar. If he hits the 3 like that, watch out, because he already gets so many points in so many ways that he should be very, very consistent. I see him as an 18 and 8 guy who you play 30 minutes and don't look back. Not a great dribble driver against quicker defenders, but has good counter spin moves and is an effortless finisher inside. He could have scored 50 last night if he wanted to.
- Patrick - has gone from someone with questionable shot selection and inconsistent shot to a player making good basketball decisions and his shot looks solid to me. Great in transition. In the half court he will struggle to dribble drive because stronger players cut him off when he tries to turn the corner on him and their strength advantage bumps him off his driving line. He'll get better at that as he gets stronger, but right now in the half court he has to rely on ball movement and getting open on cuts or dribble penetration off the catch where the defender isn't in a set position yet.
- Joe T - played much better last night and is a key player on defense where he can speed the other team up faster than they'd like with his harrassing defense. Made a few good jumpers and overall played under control offensively. In the exhibition he made at least 3 passes that I felt were not passes Connor or players with high Assist:Turnover ratios would make, so I am still concerned about him against better competition but for Game 1 he was very good.
- Ulis - thought he looked good. Not as electric as Joe T but very solid. Good defensively, some really good rebounds I thought and looked ready to play at this level.
- Perkins - probably the one player that we are still trying to figure out how he fits this year, but I think he can be a bench piece that you can put in and he won't do any one thing at an elite level but he can do a ton of things very well and when he lets the game come to him he should be a good contributor. When I think of minutes per player, though, I think he's a guy who I am lowering my expectations on slightly simply because Sandfort's minutes are going up in my view and that means someone else has to play less. We shall see.
- Mulvey - really moves well for a freshman in terms of getting to where he should go and running with purpose. Showed a more developed post move than I thought he had, so promising footwork there. However, for a shot blocker he gets moved out of position and then struggles to block shots due to having a poor angle. It's just a matter of being strong enough to be in a spot that is only 18-24" different, but one where he has the advantage over the attacker and can block without fouling. So you can see where the strength element is coming in to play with him, but the good news is his feel for the game and effort looks quite good to me. Some of Garza may have rubbed off on him effort wise.
- Sandfort - wow. Smooth looking dude. Last October on the free board I compared him to Korver after watching his HS film, because both were 6'7" 210 lbs and have a smoth, high, quick release but are average athletes. What is striking about Sandfort is a few things: (A) his confidence that he can get his shot off anytime he wants. You can tell. It's so quick and high that he knows the defender can't stop it, it's just whether he wants to shoot it or not. (B) he can score inside - he hasn't shown it all yet but it shows up in his HS film too. His little jump hook, and the mid-range jumper he showed in the exhibition. (C) He plays like he knows his shot is going in, but even more compelling is he plays like he can get a shot off against you anytime he wants. Nice left handed finish off the break, moves well. Not a great defensive player but a high defensive IQ can make up for a lot of things. He is perfect for running off screens and can be used heavily in that floppy set with baseline screens where he runs side to side. Projects very, very well.
- Ash - you can see where he is very valuable to the program because he is a leader on the court and is pulling guys together and talking and he knows what is supposed to be going on and lets his teammates know. Despite not being a star player, it's a good move to have him in the program as he is helpful with the other guys in so many ways and brings some energy as well. Most fans won't see what he really adds but if you watch TV closely you can see that he's got a bit more of a leadership role than you may realize.
- Bohannon - very efficient scorer last night and looks great. You can see how he helps with spacing on offense and when his guy tries to help on Murray then Keegan just kicks it out to 25 feet and boom. Thought his defense was pretty good and he closed out hard a few times in rotation. Not being the PG may give him extra energy on defense so that could improve slightly. Great asset for Iowa.
- Connor - man he got beat up, but I like the fact that he's tough as nails, a veteran, and you can count on him to make the right basketball play. He can also guard all types of players so huge flex player for us.
- Kris - big fan and think his impact will grow as he gets comfortable. Great team player who lets the game come to him but can also score in many ways like Keegan although his shot selection is different. Good shooter and cleans up others mistakes on defense. I’d play him more minutes than Fran probably will (see below) but lots of pieces here. Will be a top 4 player for us by year end imo.
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