The Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dynamic in the 2024 election is shifting. Multiple recent high-quality national polls have shown the independent candidate suddenly pulling support about evenly from President Biden and former president Donald Trump — and even taking more from Trump’s side of the ledger — despite long-standing Democratic concerns about Kennedy playing spoiler for Biden.
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A new poll gets at why the Kennedy effect might shift in Biden’s favor.
I’ve been arguing in this space for a while that Kennedy is more of a wild card than people might realize, by virtue of his much-better image with Republican-leaning voters and voters’ lack of familiarity with him (beyond his golden name).
What happens with his double-digit support when increasingly anti-vaccine Republicans — and even more anti-vaccine MAGA Republicans — learn that Kennedy is perhaps the nation’s leading vaccine skeptic, I asked? Running against Trump, the guy who presided over Operation Warp Speed and has repeatedly praised the coronavirus vaccines?
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An answer of sorts has now arrived: Republicans say they become more open to supporting Kennedy, while Democrats sour on him.
A Monmouth University poll Monday initially asked voters whether they would consider voting for Kennedy. Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were.
But then the poll asked people whether they were aware that Kennedy “claims that autism is linked to vaccines” and that he has floated a theory that covid was targeted at certain races. (Neither claim is based in fact.) About half of Republicans said they were aware of this; about 6 in 10 Democrats said they were.
Then it asked again whether people, with this knowledge, would consider voting for him.
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Suddenly, the percentage of Republicans who said they would consider Kennedy rose by eight percentage points, nearly doubling to just shy of 1 in 5.
The percentage of Democrats who said they would consider Kennedy, meanwhile, dropped by seven points to 1 in 10.
It’s important not to sell this as a game changer. Voters are bad at acknowledging what’s really important to their votes. The fact that more Republicans suddenly say they’re considering voting for Kennedy after receiving this information could just as well be a signal that they approve of Kennedy’s views, rather than that they are truly considering flipping their votes.
This is also really the only good polling we have so far on views of Kennedy and vaccines, meaning we should be circumspect.
But the numbers do speak to how this particularly pronounced segment of Kennedy’s bio could cut against Republicans in the 2024 race. More than 6 in 10 Republicans aren’t confident in the safety of the coronavirus vaccines, and large numbers are skeptical of other vaccines, as well. The fact that Democrats sour on Kennedy when given this information is also notable.
This has set off some panic in more extreme corners of the pro-Trump movement that at least some of these voters could ditch Trump for Kennedy, particularly if Kennedy emphasizes the issue and Trump doesn’t play his cards right.
“Do not give RFK any reason to trim at our base, to give people a little uncertainty,” Turning Point USA head Charlie Kirk cautioned Trump last month after the former president sought credit for the coronavirus vaccines. Kirk added, “I would stay away from the vaccine issue.”
Kennedy hasn’t played up the vaccines much during this campaign. But there are signs that could be changing. Last month he announced as his running mate Nicole Shanahan, who used her announcement to suggest a potential link between her daughter’s autism and vaccines.
Trump and his campaign, for their part, also appear to have noticed the shifting polls. They’ve recently doubled down on trying to attach Kennedy to the left by pointing to other issues on which he’s more aligned with Democrats.
Trump has attacked Kennedy repeatedly on Truth Social in recent days and baselessly suggested that he’s a Democratic “plant.” (This despite the fact that it was Trump allies who made pains to elevate Kennedy when he was challenging Biden in the Democratic primaries.)
“A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him,” Trump said.
At least on this signature Kennedy issue, Trump’s analysis appears dead wrong.
Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.
A new poll gets at why the Kennedy effect might shift in Biden’s favor.
I’ve been arguing in this space for a while that Kennedy is more of a wild card than people might realize, by virtue of his much-better image with Republican-leaning voters and voters’ lack of familiarity with him (beyond his golden name).
What happens with his double-digit support when increasingly anti-vaccine Republicans — and even more anti-vaccine MAGA Republicans — learn that Kennedy is perhaps the nation’s leading vaccine skeptic, I asked? Running against Trump, the guy who presided over Operation Warp Speed and has repeatedly praised the coronavirus vaccines?
ADVERTISING
An answer of sorts has now arrived: Republicans say they become more open to supporting Kennedy, while Democrats sour on him.
A Monmouth University poll Monday initially asked voters whether they would consider voting for Kennedy. Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were.
But then the poll asked people whether they were aware that Kennedy “claims that autism is linked to vaccines” and that he has floated a theory that covid was targeted at certain races. (Neither claim is based in fact.) About half of Republicans said they were aware of this; about 6 in 10 Democrats said they were.
Then it asked again whether people, with this knowledge, would consider voting for him.
Follow Election 2024
Suddenly, the percentage of Republicans who said they would consider Kennedy rose by eight percentage points, nearly doubling to just shy of 1 in 5.
The percentage of Democrats who said they would consider Kennedy, meanwhile, dropped by seven points to 1 in 10.
It’s important not to sell this as a game changer. Voters are bad at acknowledging what’s really important to their votes. The fact that more Republicans suddenly say they’re considering voting for Kennedy after receiving this information could just as well be a signal that they approve of Kennedy’s views, rather than that they are truly considering flipping their votes.
This is also really the only good polling we have so far on views of Kennedy and vaccines, meaning we should be circumspect.
But the numbers do speak to how this particularly pronounced segment of Kennedy’s bio could cut against Republicans in the 2024 race. More than 6 in 10 Republicans aren’t confident in the safety of the coronavirus vaccines, and large numbers are skeptical of other vaccines, as well. The fact that Democrats sour on Kennedy when given this information is also notable.
This has set off some panic in more extreme corners of the pro-Trump movement that at least some of these voters could ditch Trump for Kennedy, particularly if Kennedy emphasizes the issue and Trump doesn’t play his cards right.
“Do not give RFK any reason to trim at our base, to give people a little uncertainty,” Turning Point USA head Charlie Kirk cautioned Trump last month after the former president sought credit for the coronavirus vaccines. Kirk added, “I would stay away from the vaccine issue.”
Kennedy hasn’t played up the vaccines much during this campaign. But there are signs that could be changing. Last month he announced as his running mate Nicole Shanahan, who used her announcement to suggest a potential link between her daughter’s autism and vaccines.
Trump and his campaign, for their part, also appear to have noticed the shifting polls. They’ve recently doubled down on trying to attach Kennedy to the left by pointing to other issues on which he’s more aligned with Democrats.
Trump has attacked Kennedy repeatedly on Truth Social in recent days and baselessly suggested that he’s a Democratic “plant.” (This despite the fact that it was Trump allies who made pains to elevate Kennedy when he was challenging Biden in the Democratic primaries.)
“A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him,” Trump said.
At least on this signature Kennedy issue, Trump’s analysis appears dead wrong.
