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Things Are Not Looking Good In The Housing Market

Scruddy

HR Heisman
Mar 18, 2021
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Hard to imagine many people with 2 to 3 percent loans are going to sell and buy again at 8 plus percent. The supply of new homes has been limited for years and doesn't seem to be breaking loose any time soon. Interest rate hikes are slowing but I don't see them significantly lowering rates any time soon. How do you see things going from here?
 
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Hard to imagine many people with 2 to 3 percent loans are going to sell and buy again at 8 plus percent. The supply of new homes has been limited for years and doesn't seem to be breaking loose any time soon. Interest rate hikes are slowing but I don't see them significantly lowering rates any time soon. How do you see things going from here?
6-8% money is the norm, scruffy. The 2-4% money of the past 15 years was a one time opportunity/fantasy. That cheap money was most responsible for the inflationary prices of the past 15 years. Housing costs went thru the roof in that time period. As did auto prices.
 
Will depend on market. We have low for sale inventory in Nashville so home prices are sticking, people still moving here. Will be curious how it looks in the spring.
 
When inflation is trending downward, supply chain issues have leveled out or are improving, stock market strong, job market is tremendous...it's really getting difficult for the Radical Right fluffers to spread doom and gloom.

This thread is Exhibit A.
 
Isn't this the time of year when home sales slow to nothing? Isn't this the trend year over year?

Glad I got refinanced at 2%. This was after 2 other refi's in the same year as rates were dropping. When we went to the bank to close on the last refi, banker said "Well I'm pretty sure this is the last time we'll be doing this".
 
Or “the market”...and actually, The Fed, who monitors them to keep the economy from running too hot or too cold.
The Fed can only use the one tool they have, and that's monetary policy. They can't control fiscal policy. Controlling interest rates is and can be only a partial fix. Some of the criteria cited by the Fed is dubious, like unemployment, which ignores the Labor Participation Rate.

Bottom line is the Fed would not have increased rates to the current level and at the same pace if deficit spending didn't explode in 2021.
 
The Fed can only use the one tool they have, and that's monetary policy. They can't control fiscal policy. Controlling interest rates is and can be only a partial fix. Some of the criteria cited by the Fed is dubious, like unemployment, which ignores the Labor Participation Rate.

Bottom line is the Fed would not have increased rates to the current level and at the same pace if deficit spending didn't explode in 2021.
Yes 2021 not the most failed President ever of 2020. You're a shill
 
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People need higher interest rates to grow on them.

It will improve by spring. People may not be able to ask for top dollar in many areas.

We built a house over 25 years ago at 7+%. It was normal back in those days. Refinanced a few times over time and got it down to a little over 3%.
 
Home real estate values are up something like 70-80% in the last 5-6 years, when typical home appreciation is about 5% per year since the 80s

A temporary breather is not only welcome but sorely needed. And values have barely dropped, depending on location. Sales are just taking longer than a day now.

To really avoid future disaster, some decline in value is needed now so a new generation of homebuyers can enter the market. If not, the rent bubble will eventually burst.
 
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6-8% money is the norm, scruffy. The 2-4% money of the past 15 years was a one time opportunity/fantasy. That cheap money was most responsible for the inflationary prices of the past 15 years. Housing costs went thru the roof in that time period. As did auto prices.
This post attempts to rationalize the high interest rates as the norm historically. Perhaps so.

However, completely ignores the point of the post. Which is, people with 2-3% mortgages are reluctant to sell their house giving up that great rate. There is no statement that argues that we should be at 2-3%. Or that 8% is unfair. Simply that the reason for the market slow down is the discrepancy between the rates and the market down turn.

So, while seemingly attempting to argue that this shit show administration merely has us at historically normal interest rates, you've managed to no actually pay attention to the post's actual point. Naturally,
 
To really avoid future disaster, some decline in value is needed now so a new generation of homebuyers can enter the market. If not, the rent bubble will eventually burst.
The value of the dollar (in goods and services, not in relation to other fiat) will continue to decline.
 
Or “the market”...and actually, The Fed, who monitors them to keep the economy from running too hot or too cold.

Great time to be a cash buyer.
Blackrock, vanguard and state street are all in the market apparently. Interesting how that works.
When inflation is trending downward, supply chain issues have leveled out or are improving, stock market strong, job market is tremendous...it's really getting difficult for the Radical Right fluffers to spread doom and gloom.

This thread is Exhibit A.
This is a moronic take on multiple levels. Typical.
Yes 2021 not the most failed President ever of 2020. You're a shill
Been asleep or wilfully ignorant the last 3 years lol stooge.
 
The value of the dollar (in goods and services, not in relation to other fiat) will continue to decline.
And it normally does from an historical viewpoint. Right?

What historical period have we ever seen where the value of the dollar actually increases in relation to goods and services?
 
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6-8% money is the norm, scruffy. The 2-4% money of the past 15 years was a one time opportunity/fantasy. That cheap money was most responsible for the inflationary prices of the past 15 years. Housing costs went thru the roof in that time period. As did auto prices.
Those rates may be the historical norm, but these prices are not. Combined, this market will likely come to a screeching halt unless many folks drastically lower their expectations for the type of homes they can get into.
 


Hard to imagine many people with 2 to 3 percent loans are going to sell and buy again at 8 plus percent. The supply of new homes has been limited for years and doesn't seem to be breaking loose any time soon. Interest rate hikes are slowing but I don't see them significantly lowering rates any time soon. How do you see things going from here?
Home prices are holding steady. That seems like a good thing though counter-intuitive.
 
Home prices are holding steady. That seems like a good thing though counter-intuitive.
I'm not seeing that same trend anymore. The number of listings I'm seeing remain low but the sell prices are down at minimum 10% from a year ago and they're sitting on the market for longer as well. Don't want to claim my local situation is representative of the national market though by any means. Just an observation.
Except that's not what is actually happening.
The value has decreased rather substantially.. do you legitimately deny this?
 
Those rates may be the historical norm, but these prices are not. Combined, this market will likely come to a screeching halt unless many folks drastically lower their expectations for the type of homes they can get into.
Probably...but that is often how things work in a “free market”....the Feds job us to “ gerryrig” interest rates to keep things flowing evenly.
 
U son of a bitch. All I could get was 3.25.
I'm at a 2.375 on a 30 year fixed because my BIL is a mortgage guy and I had him eat all his wiggle room and make no money on the deal in December of 2019. I bought him the treager he wanted for Xmas that year from my nephew using his Fleet Farm discount. Best 1300 bucks I've ever spent.
 
This post attempts to rationalize the high interest rates as the norm historically. Perhaps so.

However, completely ignores the point of the post. Which is, people with 2-3% mortgages are reluctant to sell their house giving up that great rate. There is no statement that argues that we should be at 2-3%. Or that 8% is unfair. Simply that the reason for the market slow down is the discrepancy between the rates and the market down turn.

So, while seemingly attempting to argue that this shit show administration merely has us at historically normal interest rates, you've managed to no actually pay attention to the post's actual point. Naturally,
You think and act as though “this administration” is the sole determination of interest rates when in reality political administrations have no direct influence on this matter. The Fed is a non-partisan board that controls these rates. I understand it is much more complicated than that...but it is no where as simple as you wNt it to be here.
 
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Blackrock, vanguard and state street are all in the market apparently. Interesting how that works.

This is a moronic take on multiple levels. Typical.

Been asleep or wilfully ignorant the last 3 years lol stooge.
Other than tossing insults out at random, perhaps you should remove your partisan glasses and think objectively?

You'll see things differently.
 
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