Why Iowa needs to win 9 games next year to get Ferentz off the hot seat

[gryzz14]

I will preface this by saying I do not expect Iowa to win 9 games every year (which is lower than Husker fans' expectations). I do not expect Iowa to win 9 games in a random year. But, Iowa needs to win 9 games next year or Ferentz will not finish out his contract, and here is why: realistic expectations for Iowa football are based on recent history. There are two trends to look at in determining this.

The first is that, except for the transition years between Fry and Ferentz, Iowa has not gone longer than 3 seasons between 9 wins in the current 13 game season format or 8 wins in the former 12 game season format over the last 35 years.

The second trend is that Ferentz has consistently had 3 mediocre seasons followed by 3 great seasons, a trend broken by last season:

99-01: 2 bad seasons followed by a 6-5 regular season that beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl
02-04: 3 straight top 10 finishes in the polls
05-07: Two six win seasons and a seven win season, no bowl wins
08-10: 9, 11, and 8 win seasons, 3 straight bowl wins
11-13: no bowl wins and a 4 win season

So when fans are disappointed in last season, it is not because they have unrealistic expectations. It is based on historical expectations for this program. Right after the 2013 season, iowa was favored to win by Vegas in all their games except Wisconsin, so a 9 win season was not unrealistic.

This brings us to the 2015 season, and there will be 5 seasons between 9 win seasons, and if Iowa does not get 9 this year, it will be 6, which is double the recent historical average for this team. Ferentz will not be fired if he wins 8 games, but he will be on the hot seat, as 2016 brings an extra Big 10 game with Michigan and Penn St rotating in and 2017 has Ohio St., making the prospect of Ferentz going the length of his contract unlikely.

Iowa can win 9 games this year with a schedule similar to this year's, and there are 2 new coaches at Nebraska and Wisconsin. And they need to win. If you go to general college football forums, Iowa is known for Ferentz's contract, developing linemen, AIRBG, a dull style of play, and being good during low expectations and bad during high ones. In that order. Iowa is no longer grouped with the MSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin tier, but rather the Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota tier. A 9 win season would go far in fixing that.

How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk? How few games won would result in Ferentz being fired? (And please be realistic, no 0 or 13 win answers). I think 9 wins and above gets rid of hot seat talk, 7-8 wins puts him on the hot seat, and 6 would get him fired, as Iowa needs to show improvement heading into the tougher 2016-17 seasons.

 

[N.Legend]

"How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk?"
_____________________________________________________________________
From message board pundits 9-10. From people who count. 5 to 7.

 

[kzoohawk80]

Make no mistake he's on the hot seat right now. I don't see that changing barring a Big Ten title this year. The schedule combined with the boring style isn't going to help KF bring fans back. This team should win 9 games with the schedule. I'm not sure Iowa fans are going to care if they do when 9 games this year. That's how bad the schedule is.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[hawkinne]

Originally posted by N.Legend:

"How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk?"
_____________________________________________________________________
From message board pundits 9-10. From people who count. 5 to 7.

Sounds like Husker fans here in Omaha. Predicting 10-11 wins despite the new coach who has a career record in conference well under 500. 8 wins is way beyond his and his (new/same) staffs reach despite the easy schedule. Can't change a Tiger's stripes.

 

[Buck.McCoy]

He needs to win at least 8 in the regular season. 7-5 again (or worse) will have Kinnick looking like a ghost town when you account for the shitty schedule. We're talking pre-Hayden level crowds of 53K.

The thing is, considering how awful the schedule is, even an 8-4 season will by definition include multiple losses to really shitty teams. But could Iowa even try to force out an 8-4 coach? I doubt it.





This post was edited on 3/2 3:08 PM by Buck.McCoy

 

[gryzz14]

Who exactly are the "people who count?" It is not the national press, as Ferentz is on the 2015 hot seat lists from USA Today and Bleacher Report. It is not the local press, as one CR Gazette writer predicted Ferentz would be fired after next season and another predicted after the 2016 season on their podcast. It is not the fans, as only half bought tickets to the bowl game. It is not the students, as they have had to slash ticket prices to try to get them to come. It is not Ferentz himself, who said, "we've won seven games and we're considering it a low period." It is not Barta himself, who said fan reaction now is more intense than it was when Iowa went 4-8, so even he recognizes the hot seat. So who exactly are the "people who count" that would not talk about Ferentz on the hot seat if Iowa went 5-7, 6-7, or 7-6 after what will be 6 years never being ranked or winning a bowl game?

To be clear, this is not an "I hate Ferentz" thread, it is what is a reasonable expectation of success for Iowa's head coach over an extended period of time. I think I have shown over the last 35 years what that is; if I am wrong, give me the reasons why and not just the statement that it is wrong.

 

[OldTownPepe]

Originally posted by N.Legend:

"How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk?"
_____________________________________________________________________
From message board pundits 9-10. From people who count. 5 to 7.

Who are "the people who count"? And if they can only count to 5, they're full of s**t.

 

[makeachange]

..even 8 wins is going to cause an uproar with this schedule, as it should. Funny I have no excitement for this next year, almost like a lame duck president, our coach could be a lame duck.

 

[Rocket98]

It depends what the season looks like. It will not be wins and losses alone that will get himself fired. Are their blowouts? Are there young kids that shine? Are there late game management issues from coaches? I think 8 wins and a Jan. 1 bowl game without a ton of late game meltdowns or blowouts he is secure. He still have the luxury of firing or "retiring" a coordinator or two.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

never realized a 2nd place finish in the division to BT champion MSU was considered a bad season, in 2013
are you telling me IA losing to BT Champion MSU, Leaders division Champion O$U, Leaders division runner up Wisconsin. LSU in the Bowl game and NIU who went 12-0 in the regular season equals a failed season. OMG you posters are pathetic.

 

[gryzz14]

Now I feel like an official poster after being personally insulted by 2222. Thank you, Kilroy. Nowhere did I say "failed" season, I said mediocre, which it was. You look on it fondly, as it was almost a 9 win bounce back from a 4-8 season. Barta said that the 2013 season was only a partial comeback to where they wanted, so I would not call it a raving success. I think mediocre is fair when you lose 5 out of 13 games and are not ranked all season.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

a 2nd place finish in the division with losses to these is/was not a mediocre season

MSU 13-1
O$U 12-2
NIU 12-2
LSU 10-4
Wisconsin 9-4

there was not a single bad loss in that group. anybody that bellyaches about losing to those team KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT FB.

now you tell me how can you even consider that a mediocre season as to just who IA was not allowed to lose too, BT Champion MSU, Leaders Champion O$U, or any of the others? to say that was a mediocre season means you are demanding a minimum of 10 wins each and every season and BT titles and playing for the NT EVERY YEAR. ITS THAT OR KF is a FAILURE.

 

[gryzz14]

Hey man, slow down and take a breath. First, you use straw man arguments and say I demand 10 win seasons when my post was the exact opposite. I am not even asking for any kind of championship, just a 9 win season, which would put Iowa in the top 25. The top 25 averages 21 power 5 conference members with 4 mid-majors in it. There are 65 power 5 conference teams. So, I am just asking to be 21st out of those 65, or the top 1/3. Not too much to ask for, and something Iowa has not been in a LONG time.

"now you tell me how can you even consider that a mediocre season as to just who IA was not allowed to lose too". I am not a grammar nazi, but come on, dude.

You wanted to make a bet that Iowa would win 9 games next year, so I am not sure why you are so belligerent. And you never answered the question: would you be happy with 2 or 3 wins next year? Already got Legend down for 5 wins, so I am guessing you would come under.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

1st this is the BT, not some mid major or low major conference. there are 14 teams all wanting the same thing, where is written that IA is the only team that can accomplish what you and others are wanting these are the teams just in IA's division ALL STRIVING for the same thing you say IA has to do.

Nebraska just fired their coach and he never won 10 games but he also never failed to win 9 games
Minnesota, my question to most is does Kill not have the right to do for Minnesota what HF did for IA?
Wisconsin are they suddenly supposed to start losing to IA JUST TO MAKE YOU and OTHER POSTERS HAPPY
NW their coach also coaches to win and he gets paid to do so
Purdue another school that is paying their coach to win, not lose
Illinois another school t0at also pays their coach to win games and not throw the games so that IA can win

to say otherwise makes you look foolish for demanding something that every BT coach wants to do AND GETS PAID TO DO, THEY DON'T GET PAID TO LOSE!

so get over your self entitlement and just enjoy the games win or lose, this is not LIFE or DEATH, 8 wins is good enough for me, because I am aware of there being 7 other teams with coaches that are getting paid to WIN NOT LOSE.

now you tell me if those other teams don't have the right to think they can win as well?

 

[Letsgohawks411]

Not only 9 wins, but also get a few coaches on staff that can recruit.

 

[gryzz14]

This is the last time I am responding to you in this thread, 2222, because you are not bothering to rebut what I write. It is not unreasonable to expect a small amount of success over an extended amount of time, like the past few years. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska were all ranked last year. Northwestern was ranked the year before. Even Illinois has been ranked more recently than Iowa, that is how long it has been. I cheer for Iowa when they are bad and when they are good. But when they haven't even been in the top 1/3 of power 5 conferences for a long time, then there is an objective argument that change needs to be made.

You accuse everyone of being negative when you are the most negative poster here. To you, there is always an excuse for Iowa, and Iowa should be lucky to have a winning record. Iowa's history does not reflect this.

People do not get upset that you post irrelevant 40 times and stars from other sites, they are upset because you do so to derail whatever topic is actually being talked about. I post about what are reasonable definitions for success at Iowa, and you argue about the 2013 team being bad, which I did not even say. Then you state that I only want championships every year, again I did not say. Other teams do want to win, and they are winning consistently over us. That's the problem, and if you don't get it, I can't say any more

 

[ISUhawk]

We all know Kirk has to win more. What I am looking for even more than the number of wins next year is IF the change in recruiting coordinator, upgrade facilities, and recruiting strategy improve results in our recruiting. I believe the coaching and development are fine plus the classy representation including graduation rates. But, we need difference makers on the field!!! We can hire another coach, but if recruiting does not improve neither will our record. The biggest difference between Iowa and Nebraska and Iowa and Wisconsin were Ameer Abdulah and Melvin Gordan. Sure, there are others but my belief if we switched ours with theirs - we probably win! IMHO

 

[who r u]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

1st this is the BT, not some mid major or low major conference. there are 14 teams all wanting the same thing, where is written that IA is the only team that can accomplish what you and others are wanting these are the teams just in IA's division ALL STRIVING for the same thing you say IA has to do.

Nebraska just fired their coach and he never won 10 games but he also never failed to win 9 games
Minnesota, my question to most is does Kill not have the right to do for Minnesota what HF did for IA?
Wisconsin are they suddenly supposed to start losing to IA JUST TO MAKE YOU and OTHER POSTERS HAPPY
NW their coach also coaches to win and he gets paid to do so
Purdue another school that is paying their coach to win, not lose
Illinois another school t0at also pays their coach to win games and not throw the games so that IA can win

to say otherwise makes you look foolish for demanding something that every BT coach wants to do AND GETS PAID TO DO, THEY DON'T GET PAID TO LOSE!

so get over your self entitlement and just enjoy the games win or lose, this is not LIFE or DEATH, 8 wins is good enough for me, because I am aware of there being 7 other teams with coaches that are getting paid to WIN NOT LOSE.

now you tell me if those other teams don't have the right to think they can win as well?

 

[Hawkeye2222]

GRZZ typical response when you get called out, those other teams are winning so somebody has to lose. by saying that IA is the only one with the right to win is insane.

I live in the here and now and realize there are 7 other coaches in the West that ALL have the same objective. THAT IS TO "WIN"
just like there are 65 teams with coaches that are paid to "WIN" not "LOSE". again another poster that is not seeing what he want somebody should/has to post to satisfy your claim, so you take you ball.bat and glove and run home to mommy. crying the big bad meany won't tell me what I want to hear/see.

can this years team win 12+ games? the answer is yes, can they lose all 12? again the answer is yes, and the answer will always be the same every year no matter who the coach for IA is, evey team IA plays has just as much "RIGHT" TO WINNING THOSE GAMES AS IA does.

to say otherwise is a fool talking.

 

[OldTownPepe]

LOL. 2222 is that creepy guy you see walking down the street talking and yelling to himself.

 

[clickhere 01]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

GRZZ typical response when you get called out, those other teams are winning so somebody has to lose. by saying that IA is the only one with the right to win is insane.

I live in the here and now and realize there are 7 other coaches in the West that ALL have the same objective. THAT IS TO "WIN"
just like there are 65 teams with coaches that are paid to "WIN" not "LOSE". again another poster that is not seeing what he want somebody should/has to post to satisfy your claim, so you take you ball.bat and glove and run home to mommy. crying the big bad meany won't tell me what I want to hear/see.

can this years team win 12+ games? the answer is yes, can they lose all 12? again the answer is yes, and the answer will always be the same every year no matter who the coach for IA is, evey team IA plays has just as much "RIGHT" TO WINNING THOSE GAMES AS IA does.

to say otherwise is a fool talking.

lol

 

[gryzz14]

Good job out of you, you pulled me back in one last time.

First off, typical response out of me? That was only my 12th post, I haven't posted enough for you say anything is typical of me.

Second, I finally nailed down your philosophy on sports and get your strange "logic." Here is your logic. Every team pays a coach to win. Every coach wants to win. Every team in the Big 10 has talented recruits. Every team has some fans in the stands. Therefore, it is just chance and luck that one team beats another team. If you think Iowa is doing anything wrong or unsuccessful, it means you secretly like another team better or you are just a bad fan. After all, a team beating us consistently the past few years wants to win. And we want to win. So in the end, that's football, win some, lose some, because every team wants to win and coaches are paid to win. It has nothing to do with a coach being better, recruits being better, athletes being developed better, better schemes being devised, or anything like that. No, this is the Big 10, so every team is within a level of each other, and chance decides games. That's football.

Everyone has an "equal right" to win? Wut? I'll leave you with a JJ Watt quote that rebuts that: "Success is not owned, it is leased. And rent is due every day."

 

[Sterling_Wildcat]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

a 2nd place finish in the division with losses to these is/was not a mediocre season

MSU 13-1
O$U 12-2
NIU 12-2
LSU 10-4
Wisconsin 9-4

there was not a single bad loss in that group. anybody that bellyaches about losing to those team KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT FB.

now you tell me how can you even consider that a mediocre season as to just who IA was not allowed to lose too, BT Champion MSU, Leaders Champion O$U, or any of the others? to say that was a mediocre season means you are demanding a minimum of 10 wins each and every season and BT titles and playing for the NT EVERY YEAR. ITS THAT OR KF is a FAILURE.

Correct me if I'm wrong Kilroy but at this time the Big Ten had 12 teams with 6 in each division. Getting 2nd place in a 6 team division isn't that great of a accomplishment.

 

[McK_Hawk]

Or to put Kilroy's post another way, there are two teams involved in every game. And if we come in second, well, that is just one spot away from first. Can't believe you pathetic fans haven't figured this out yet.

 

[Urohawk]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

a 2nd place finish in the division with losses to these is/was not a mediocre season

MSU 13-1
O$U 12-2
NIU 12-2
LSU 10-4
Wisconsin 9-4

there was not a single bad loss in that group. anybody that bellyaches about losing to those team KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT FB.

now you tell me how can you even consider that a mediocre season as to just who IA was not allowed to lose too, BT Champion MSU, Leaders Champion O$U, or any of the others? to say that was a mediocre season means you are demanding a minimum of 10 wins each and every season and BT titles and playing for the NT EVERY YEAR. ITS THAT OR KF is a FAILURE.

Not a single bad loss in the group is not the same as having a great win. If Iowa is not in the hunt for B10 championship (which they aren't going to be most years) than I at least expect them to pick up a win here or there against superior competition every once and a while.

MSU 13-1 Lost 26-14
O$U 12-2 Lost 34-24
NIU 12-2 Lost 30-27
LSU 10-4 Lost 21-14
Wisconsin 9-4 Lost 28-9

Except for Wisconsin, all those games are pretty close. With better coaching we pick up a win or two out of those teams.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

then beating Michigan and Nebraska that year were lousy wins that season?

ps better coaching = beating which one of those teams? the BT Champion, or maybe O$U,

like I keep saying anything less than a BT Championship and them playing for the NT "EVERY" YEAR KF is a failure and needs to be fired according to you people.
This post was edited on 3/4 5:10 PM by Hawkeye2222

 

[Hawkeye2222]

IA beat these for opponents in the BT on the way to a 5-3 record, Minnesota, NW
in fact the only team to beat the Hawks in the Legend division was the BT Champion MSU, as Wisconsin was still in the leaders Division.

this year IA went 4-4 with losses to these
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Minnesota
MD from the East division

there is no bad loss in that group, other than in your dead brains. you people were so sure in your own minds that IA would go 12-0 and play in the 1st playoffs that anything less than that and again KF was FAILURE.

a failed coach goes 2-6 or worse in conference play and 2-10 or worse overall.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

Losing 55-14 is a bad loss against minny. Blowing a 17 pt lead with less than 20min at home the way iowa did against Nebraska is a bad loss

Or how about losing at home to a 2-10 isu squad and be the only team they faced not to score 30 pts on them. Heck we couldn't even score 20.

Or getting piss pounded in a bowl game to a younger tenn team that was 6-6.

As for 2013 n'western finished below .500 overall and in Conf. As for failed coach example your beloved coach flirted with that in 12' with 2-6 conf and impressive 4-8 record. As for failures Kilroy you are the cream of the crop here with your delusional post.

This post was edited on 3/4 5:41 PM by iahawkeyes17

 

[Hans81]

The OP made some interesting comments, but lost me when he grouped MSU, Nebraska, and Wisky in the same tier above teams like MN and Iowa. One of those 3 doesn't belong in that tier and it's Nebraska. Nebraska isn't presently in the tier with MSU and Wisky (given recent piss poundings that Wisky has given Nebby). Also, Minny has handled the huskers the last 2 years. The Iowa vs. Nebby game last year was essentially a push and the Hawks handled the huskers fairly easily the year before in Lincoln. Nebby, with a new coaching staff, certainly has a lot to prove before getting placed in higher tier than MN and Iowa.

This post was edited on 3/8 4:01 PM by Hans81

 

[blhawk]

If every fan were like 2222, kurt would have nothing to worry about. Jesus its embarrassing to follow the same team as you dude. No one is calling 2013 a bad season but it takes a quality win to consider it anything other than just an OK one, especially when we were in positions to win some of those games we lost. Did u really just bring up beating 3-5 in b10 michigan and unranked and injured nebraska as quality wins that yr??? Please. We haven't had a quality win since nov 2011. We are what we are: a program that has lost 3 of 4 including last 2 at home to a pathetic iowa state program
and has 5-8 losses every year for past half decade. Hell, with all the NFL talent we had on the field that 2010 team's 5 losses should count as 7. 2013 is only season you can't call disappointing in that stretch, largely thanks to the turd that was 2012.

And kf isn't your relative so quit blindly defending him like he is. Its just sad. His record and comments about us "average fans" speak for themselves. (Average fans that got him to bowl games he didn't deserve and who still come in way larger numbers than he deserves).... Fat cat personified.

And no, Kurt, you don't usually get what you deserve. This fan base gets 5+ losses every year why we hear garbage diversions like "need to clean it up" and "execute better" on repeat. And you get nearly 4 million a year. You may think iowans are a bunch of rubes, but we have been watching an eroding product for a long time now. Iowa football is downright boring. Even the loyalty of iowans has limits.

 

[Chewback]

Originally posted by Rocket98:
It depends what the season looks like. It will not be wins and losses alone that will get himself fired. Are their blowouts? Are there young kids that shine? Are there late game management issues from coaches? I think 8 wins and a Jan. 1 bowl game without a ton of late game meltdowns or blowouts he is secure. He still have the luxury of firing or "retiring" a coordinator or two.

Yeah, I have to agree with this. Playing well in a loss is painful, but can happen.Stinking the place up in losses is what drives people out of their minds

 

[mickv]

Better beat Iowa State in a 8 win season

 

[makeachange]

Re: Why Iowa needs to win 9 game.

I truly don't think Ferentz is on any 'hot seat' for the opinions that matter.[/B] The AD is firmly behind him. The recruiting level seems to be picking up this season. I do think KF is in high octane mode. I think he understands he must perform. I see 8 to 9 games won this year. Mainly cause the schedule is one of the easiest in college ball.

Hot seat...your dreaming. That is a term to stir up fans/media. This KF is in high octane for one reason...ego..to prove us all wrong..

 

[LuteHawk]

8 games will get Iowa to a Bowl game and that
is what really counts. Nobody is going to buy
out the contract of Coach Kirk. We will also
have QB Beathard at the controls from Day 1.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

IA did beat ISU in that 2013 season and now all of sudden we are to expect IA to beat Michigan EVERY SEASON. ia SHOULD NEVER LOSE to Michigan or Nebraska EVER. what a bunch of MORONS, IA even beat Minnesota in 2013, oh that's right those team have no right to beat IA,

NOBODY has the right to beat IA has IA is to win every game against EVERYBODY THEY PLAY.

please tell me how many times has IA beat O$U EVER? as far as the new century goes they have beat O$U just ONCE and you expect KF to beat them every year, not even Hayden did that.

 

[HAWK-N-402 (4)]

Who are you talking to?

 

[ThatsFootball]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

IA did beat ISU in that 2013 season and now all of sudden we are to expect IA to beat Michigan EVERY SEASON. ia SHOULD NEVER LOSE to Michigan or Nebraska EVER. what a bunch of MORONS, IA even beat Minnesota in 2013, oh that's right those team have no right to beat IA,

NOBODY has the right to beat IA has IA is to win every game against EVERYBODY THEY PLAY.

please tell me how many times has IA beat O$U EVER? as far as the new century goes they have beat O$U just ONCE and you expect KF to beat them every year, not even Hayden did that.

Wait....