I will preface this by saying I do not expect Iowa to win 9 games every year (which is lower than Husker fans' expectations). I do not expect Iowa to win 9 games in a random year. But, Iowa needs to win 9 games next year or Ferentz will not finish out his contract, and here is why: realistic expectations for Iowa football are based on recent history. There are two trends to look at in determining this.
The first is that, except for the transition years between Fry and Ferentz, Iowa has not gone longer than 3 seasons between 9 wins in the current 13 game season format or 8 wins in the former 12 game season format over the last 35 years.
The second trend is that Ferentz has consistently had 3 mediocre seasons followed by 3 great seasons, a trend broken by last season:
99-01: 2 bad seasons followed by a 6-5 regular season that beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl
02-04: 3 straight top 10 finishes in the polls
05-07: Two six win seasons and a seven win season, no bowl wins
08-10: 9, 11, and 8 win seasons, 3 straight bowl wins
11-13: no bowl wins and a 4 win season
So when fans are disappointed in last season, it is not because they have unrealistic expectations. It is based on historical expectations for this program. Right after the 2013 season, iowa was favored to win by Vegas in all their games except Wisconsin, so a 9 win season was not unrealistic.
This brings us to the 2015 season, and there will be 5 seasons between 9 win seasons, and if Iowa does not get 9 this year, it will be 6, which is double the recent historical average for this team. Ferentz will not be fired if he wins 8 games, but he will be on the hot seat, as 2016 brings an extra Big 10 game with Michigan and Penn St rotating in and 2017 has Ohio St., making the prospect of Ferentz going the length of his contract unlikely.
Iowa can win 9 games this year with a schedule similar to this year's, and there are 2 new coaches at Nebraska and Wisconsin. And they need to win. If you go to general college football forums, Iowa is known for Ferentz's contract, developing linemen, AIRBG, a dull style of play, and being good during low expectations and bad during high ones. In that order. Iowa is no longer grouped with the MSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin tier, but rather the Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota tier. A 9 win season would go far in fixing that.
How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk? How few games won would result in Ferentz being fired? (And please be realistic, no 0 or 13 win answers). I think 9 wins and above gets rid of hot seat talk, 7-8 wins puts him on the hot seat, and 6 would get him fired, as Iowa needs to show improvement heading into the tougher 2016-17 seasons.
The first is that, except for the transition years between Fry and Ferentz, Iowa has not gone longer than 3 seasons between 9 wins in the current 13 game season format or 8 wins in the former 12 game season format over the last 35 years.
The second trend is that Ferentz has consistently had 3 mediocre seasons followed by 3 great seasons, a trend broken by last season:
99-01: 2 bad seasons followed by a 6-5 regular season that beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl
02-04: 3 straight top 10 finishes in the polls
05-07: Two six win seasons and a seven win season, no bowl wins
08-10: 9, 11, and 8 win seasons, 3 straight bowl wins
11-13: no bowl wins and a 4 win season
So when fans are disappointed in last season, it is not because they have unrealistic expectations. It is based on historical expectations for this program. Right after the 2013 season, iowa was favored to win by Vegas in all their games except Wisconsin, so a 9 win season was not unrealistic.
This brings us to the 2015 season, and there will be 5 seasons between 9 win seasons, and if Iowa does not get 9 this year, it will be 6, which is double the recent historical average for this team. Ferentz will not be fired if he wins 8 games, but he will be on the hot seat, as 2016 brings an extra Big 10 game with Michigan and Penn St rotating in and 2017 has Ohio St., making the prospect of Ferentz going the length of his contract unlikely.
Iowa can win 9 games this year with a schedule similar to this year's, and there are 2 new coaches at Nebraska and Wisconsin. And they need to win. If you go to general college football forums, Iowa is known for Ferentz's contract, developing linemen, AIRBG, a dull style of play, and being good during low expectations and bad during high ones. In that order. Iowa is no longer grouped with the MSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin tier, but rather the Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota tier. A 9 win season would go far in fixing that.
How many games do you think Iowa has to win for there to be no hot seat talk? How few games won would result in Ferentz being fired? (And please be realistic, no 0 or 13 win answers). I think 9 wins and above gets rid of hot seat talk, 7-8 wins puts him on the hot seat, and 6 would get him fired, as Iowa needs to show improvement heading into the tougher 2016-17 seasons.