170 points
- Thread starter WildTurk
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Wouldn't this vote be better suited to BWI?
Talking about that other vote belongs on off-topic.
Talking about that other vote belongs on off-topic.
I posted it on HVI(not an STD) first. It's for a WildTurk research paper i will never turn in because I'm almost 40, and I'm the teacher in my world.
I'm not talking about politics. Just encouraging people to vote. If you don't like it don't participate. No big deal.
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It would be VERY hard to do.
Here is about the most generous scoring you could give:
125: Davis looks very solid and I am a big fan, but 125 is super deep and he is a true freshman. 6th-9pts
133: Nagao 4th-13pts He is very solid but relies heavily on his top game and the top 3 guys are really good.
141: Bartlett 2nd-17pts He just doesn't have the offense for me to pick him over Woods and doesn't bonus.
149: Kasak r12-3pts Although an elite recruit he is young and undersized. R12 is being generous.
157: Haines 1st-23pts He has actually looked a bit more vulnerable than I expected. Still a decent favorite.
165: Mesenbrink 4th-14pts This weight is just too deep and proven for me to pick him higher
174: Starocci 1st-24pts If he were to lose, it would probably be the biggest upset at any weight.
184: Truax 4th-13pts Solid, but beatable.
197: Brooks 1st-24pts Hidlay and Elam are his closest competition and are very unlikely to beat him.
285: Kerkvliet 1st-23pts Unless Hendrickson was really hurt and pulled a Caldwell vs. Metcalf at the All Star, I don't see anyone beating him...
So, with 4 Champs, 1-2nd, 3-4ths, 1-6th and an R12, that puts them at 163. As good as PSU has been at NCAA's, they still haven't had all 10 guys perform to the absolute maximum possible. I just don't see 7 more bonus points than I already gave. I also don't see the room for improvement in placements to get them there. Now, if they had Van Ness....
Here is about the most generous scoring you could give:
125: Davis looks very solid and I am a big fan, but 125 is super deep and he is a true freshman. 6th-9pts
133: Nagao 4th-13pts He is very solid but relies heavily on his top game and the top 3 guys are really good.
141: Bartlett 2nd-17pts He just doesn't have the offense for me to pick him over Woods and doesn't bonus.
149: Kasak r12-3pts Although an elite recruit he is young and undersized. R12 is being generous.
157: Haines 1st-23pts He has actually looked a bit more vulnerable than I expected. Still a decent favorite.
165: Mesenbrink 4th-14pts This weight is just too deep and proven for me to pick him higher
174: Starocci 1st-24pts If he were to lose, it would probably be the biggest upset at any weight.
184: Truax 4th-13pts Solid, but beatable.
197: Brooks 1st-24pts Hidlay and Elam are his closest competition and are very unlikely to beat him.
285: Kerkvliet 1st-23pts Unless Hendrickson was really hurt and pulled a Caldwell vs. Metcalf at the All Star, I don't see anyone beating him...
So, with 4 Champs, 1-2nd, 3-4ths, 1-6th and an R12, that puts them at 163. As good as PSU has been at NCAA's, they still haven't had all 10 guys perform to the absolute maximum possible. I just don't see 7 more bonus points than I already gave. I also don't see the room for improvement in placements to get them there. Now, if they had Van Ness....
Good analysis. I've seen the 170 mark thrown around a lot this year so I was curious. Most of the Lion fans are voting no aswell early on. I'm sure several of them really wanted to pick yes, but are going with the safe choice.
I'd like to see stat comparisons after the season on 3 point takedowns resulting in more bonus point victories. How much will it really change things? It can't be that much, right?
The 3 point question is a damn good one. It could make a difference if guys go for the desperation move late in matches and give up a late takedown when down by 5ish or even 12ish. That is 1 thing I didn’t account for without having any NCAA tourney data yet to see if the bonus rate changes significantly.
I agree. With Van Ness it wasn't a lock, but a good chance. Without him, they need too many breaks to go their way.
So Kasak is really a 141 who will take over for Bartlett next year ?? I still think he pulls a Vaness and Haines and finishes higher than you think, top 8
That would almost certainly give them 10 AA's and I just can't predict that when it has only happened once in DI history...
Messenbrink may be their most dominant wrestler besides Carter S this year….. which is unbelievably unfair.
He's gonna win multiple titles and be the most dominant wrestler in the NCAA for years
He is. A possible 3 timer if KOT moves up.
But, that really doesn't make sense. Why would he cut more weight just to sit behind an even more established guy in Bartlett? He was probably sitting behind Van Ness anyway, but it doesn't make any sense to force a hard cut when you are sitting behind either guy...
I mean I guess I could see it if Bartlett was dealing with something and they were afraid he wouldn't be able to go. But, other than that, it just doesn't make sense...
I'm pretty sure it was just for matches sake. It didn't make much sense to me either, but maybe he thought his best path was to beat out Bartlett. (i'd bet the same versus Van Ness)
There had to been some kind of plan - because he could have taken an Oly Shirt, but didnt.
Maybe ask Pyles?
Appreciate the response. Maybe he went into the season figuring 141 was doable and it got too hard quickly?
He is going to make some of their stud recruits sit or transfer out in the next two years. They are going to be absolutely stacked from 157-184 for the next 3 years for sure.
He could still take a RS as well. Kasak has 1 event remaining before that's gotta be decided. Evans was at 141 as well as is now at 149 and he went last weekend. They might be thinking we save Kasak and go with Evans
I think Davis will go top 3-4 and could even make it into the finals if some of these guys don't start taking him more serious. The kid is looking good and 125 is wide open. Truth be told anyone in the top 10-15 could win but he seems ready to go each match. Looking forward to seeing the 125s go at it come B10s.
Being a Michigan guy and having a buddy that used to wrestle his dad back in the day, I would be happy for him the better he places.
Still, I watched his matches with Lujan closely and I think he is a bit green and his being a TF will come into play when he gets into a match with the bigger, older and stronger guys like McKee. Still, I picked him to AA, which I rarely do for any TF's unless I have already seen them decimate AA's like Mesenbrink did to Amine...
I don't know, man. This is a team with some VERY top end talent. If Van Ness could have replicated his NCAA performance from last season they absolutely could have pulled it off. He scored 15.5 points last year. Replace that with the 3 I gave Kasak and that would put them at 175.5.
It would have taken them staying completely healthy, which already hasn't happened since he is gone. But, what I posted above is not unrealistic for any of that roster. That PSU team is simply that strong top to bottom...
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The thing is all of their #1s are nearly a lock, and almost any of their other weight classes could go on a run and win it all like a PSU guy seems to do almost every year. If any of those guys who you aren't picking to win, get first and everything else plays out as you've outlined, they hit 170. I think they unfortunately have a realistic shot at the record.
with van ness they had a shot...without him they don't...best i can get for them is 160ish (basically what MSU has above)
they have guys that go on runs and win, but it isn't guys that come out of nowhere...its usually guys one tier below "favorite".
bartlett has been this guy his whole career, i think its more likely he loses in the semis than wins the whole thing. kasak was wrestling 141 2 months ago. truax will get fourth.
psu's upside is davis, who only has ayala as a real measuring stick before b1gs, and MM, who i could see as one of those guys who scores more points than guys who place above him because he doesn't seem to wrestle close matches...if he somehow loses early, he's going to go on a McKee like run through the consis
Yep, Mes is the real deal. 65 is going to be fun to watch!
Wisconsin is turning out some top prospects, but they are going to PSU, and Missouri instead of Wisconsin. Can’t reflect well on their coach
The correct answer is F*** Penn State.
Hard to say "no" if PSU comes knocking on the door. Programs are just at different levels. These kids want to compete at the highest level and win NCAA championships, and they want to train with top talent. And that's not Wisconsin regardless of their coach.
Oh no. It’s a direct reflection of Bono. Askren is very honest with his kids about the the type of person he is and the experience they will have at Wisconsin with Bono at the helm.
It would take a complete personality reconstruction for a top AWA kid to go to Wisconsin
2 went to Missouri, not PSU level program, but again Askren influenced. Some on here claim Askren doesn’t try to influence their college choice, but he doesn’t like Wisconsin or Iowa coaches, both programs close to home for these guys. Not a coincidence neither program gets a sniff from their guys, but will go to an inferior program like Missouri over Iowa, with Askren obviously loving Missouri. He has a lot of influence on where his club guys go to college
Sounds like you have much more insight than I on this issue so yes, I will agree with you.
Excellent analysis. If there’s any upside, it might be Messenbrink.
The kid is a beast. There is no doubt. But, that bracket is going to be a shark tank on steroids. Watching what kept happening to Marinelli at NCAA’s shows how hard it had been to win and I think this year’s bracket is even more top heavy than any of those brackets were for Alex.
If Mitchell wins that bracket, we may need to start testing PSU wrestlers to see if they are being injected with alien DNA when they first arrive. A freshman walking into this weight class and getting through that mine field shouldn’t be possible. But PSU has not only proven to be able to find and land the very best talent. They have also been able, for the most part, to cultivate it and have them right at the top their very first season…
Mesenbrink looks like he has rabies and that's a good thing. I'm very impressed with him
But we keep being told that Marinelli didn’t perform at or above seed at Nattys because his style was just too brutal on his own body to string together a bunch of consecutive wins within a period of 2 days.
Messydink’s style doesn’t seem to be so self-destructive. I wouldn’t compare the two. If anything, Mess is more muke Nolf in style, which is bad news for us and the rest of wrestling.
I'm not seeing it. His big wins are Kaylor and DeAugustino who are both streaky. Drake was a sucked in mess vs Kaylor and still should have won. I honestly don't put any stock at all in those comparative matches. Drake beat DeAugustino 2 years ago when DeAugustino was better than now and Drake had a bum arm. I'll be extremely disappointed if Drake doesn't win comfortably vs Davis.
