2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

I would like to think this is straight fear mongering. Unfortunately, a lot of what is said here makes sense and is kind of scary.

Reading the ING report a significant portion of this is hedged for interest rate risk likely with swap agreements or other instruments. No doubt some of it is unhedged.

Also just because some party’s choose to unwind the trade, it could mean that they wait until the conditions are more predictable or policy has been set to reconstruct the same trade in a similar manner.

0.1 versus 0.25 is still pretty damn cheap debt/leverage. The risk is further rate hikes by BOJ or the exchange rate going against the position.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Euro banker takes the borrowed Yen, exchanges them for dollars

There is the rub.

Could you elaborate?

 

[Crafty Beaver]

Won’t disagree too much with that. The overall response to Covid from the Trump administration was disjointed and chaotic. Any president was going to have poor economic metrics follow their response. But Trump was piss-poor at managing the chaos and uncertainty.

This is BS. Initial stimulus was out in record time and properly targeted.

Then democrats insisted on rounds 2/3/4, because they insisted it “wasn’t safe” to go back to work or open the economy back up fully, which is and was the primary driver of inflation.

 

[95Hawk]

This is BS. Initial stimulus was out in record time and properly targeted.

Then democrats insisted on rounds 2/3/4, because they insisted it “wasn’t safe” to go back to work or open the economy back up fully, which is and was the primary driver of inflation.

There were 3 rounds of stimulus payments. 2/3rds of them went out under the Trump administration.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Reading the ING report a significant portion of this is hedged for interest rate risk likely with swap agreements or other instruments. No doubt some of it is unhedged.

Also just because some party’s choose to unwind the trade, it could mean that they wait until the conditions are more predictable or policy has been set to reconstruct the same trade in a similar manner.

0.1 versus 0.25 is still pretty damn cheap debt/leverage. The risk is further rate hikes by BOJ or the exchange rate going against the position.

The interest rate, at least the 15 bps increase isn’t the concern, initially. It was more the oil/petrodollar and currency risk along with qt all combined. It is definitely something to pay attention to.

 

[luvmyhawks]

C’mon man tariffs which are targeted and calibrated are part of an effective trade strategy.

Trump has recently proposed a 10% across the board tariffs -and- a blanket up to 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports. Trump’s plan is plainly stupid, inflationary, and likely to start a trade war.

As predictable as the sun coming up.

 

[markfromj]

​

​

Stocks crash on recession fears as the ‘Fed is seizing defeat from the jaws of victory’​

Stocks crash on recession fears as the 'Fed is seizing defeat from the jaws of victory'

The S&P 500 was sinking by 2.5% in midday trading, potentially on pace for its worst day since 2022, and on track for its first back-to-back loss of more than 1% since April.

fortune.com

“Crash”….lol…please remain at the kids’ table.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

“Crash”….lol…please remain at the kids’ table.

I didn’t write the article putz. JFC

 

[lucas80]

View embedded media

View embedded media

Not at 0400 but…😁

No, not even close, and part of your brain might even understand this. Trump reads and writes at a 4th grade level. His sister did his homework in high school, and his dad bought a college degree for him. He doesn’t understand stuff and things, so he blusters and follows the last advise he is given, or paid to follow.
What Biden did was after years of study and calculation, and was targeted. Not rage tweeting from the toilet at 4 am.

 

[RileyHawk]

I didn’t write the article putz. JFC

You posted it.

But that was just for everyone else's benefit, right?

You're very transparent and not clever at all.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

You posted it.

But that was just for everyone else's benefit, right?

You're very transparent and not clever at all.

What's the issue with bins posting an article?

 

[Hans81]

“Move on” means going back to the stupid MFer who exacerbated inflation and accelerated jobless claims in the last year of his term?

There was a pandemic…remember?

 

[95Hawk]

There was a pandemic…remember?

I do, dipshit.

 

[RileyHawk]

What's the issue with bins posting an article?

None. Why would you ask?

 

[joelbc1]

So Boyz, is this “the crash” that my Republican/MAGA friends have been decrying America is in for the past 20 years? Is America now in the grips of a recession/depression that is a result of all those liberal Democratic financial policies since WW2? Is there no escape….. or do we “libs” just cry “Uncle!” And admit….”Yes, you were always right and we were always wrong!”??

 

[waterboy4582]

It’s amazing the amount of mentally ill libs on this board.

 

[markfromj]

I didn’t write the article putz. JFC

No, but you posted it without comment.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

No, but you posted it without comment.

And?
Did you read it?

Basically the premise of the article is that the fed has waited too long to cut interest rates.

Not sure why you, @lucas80 , @RileyHawk all have your panties in a bunch about it.

 

[IANDFAN]

I didn’t write the article putz. JFC

I do t think he insinuated you did. But when you’re reading an article that says shit like that you have to start to wonder about the validity and intent of the article.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I do t think he insinuated you did. But when you’re reading an article that says shit like that you have to start to wonder about the validity and intent of the article.

Shit like what? That the fed should have cut interest rates earlier?

 

[IANDFAN]

Shit like what? That the fed should have cut interest rates earlier?

Sorry. That the stock market “crashed”. It’s what was brought up when you said you didn’t write the article.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Sorry. That the stock market “crashed”. It’s what was brought up when you said you didn’t write the article.

Dude. You’re hung up on the click bait in the headline?

Quite a common tactic nowadays in the media.

 

[billanole]

Are these the same indicators that were present in early 2020 pre-Covid?

Hmmm, inquiring minds want to know.

 

[billanole]

Like when the economy tanked at the end of Trump/bush jr/bush sr’s terms? Almost like there is pattern there.

Nailed it. Reminds me of the definition of idiocy. Repeating past actions expecting different results…

 

[Scruddy]

Definitely incoming

 

[SA_Hawk]

Finally someone with an actual plan to pay off the national debt.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

“Crypto check”?

 

[joelbc1]

And?
Did you read it?

Basically the premise of the article is that the fed has waited too long to cut interest rates.

Not sure why you, @lucas80 , @RileyHawk all have your panties in a bunch about it.

Hindsight is always 20/20….armchair quarterbacks never throw interceptions, either.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Hindsight is always 20/20….armchair quarterbacks never throw interceptions, either.

Ok

 

[HawkeyeShawn]

I do t think he insinuated you did. But when you’re reading an article that says shit like that you have to start to wonder about the validity and intent of the article.

It was the comment about having a seat at the kids table. Fun comment to get some likes from your fellow liberals. Juvenile comment to have an adult discussion regarding the OP.

 

[joelbc1]

Ok

Folks who make decisions, take risks. And making decisions is where the action is. Everything else is “noise”…

 

[IANDFAN]

Dude. You’re hung up on the click bait in the headline?

Quite a common tactic nowadays in the media.

I’m not hung up on anything at all. Agree it was a salacious statement used as click bait. Just stating when that occurs I really question the slant.

 

[Bank of Hawk]

Nikkei tanking bigly

 

[Hans81]

I do, dipshit.

My, my so testy…like a typical Dem. Just use your words, like a big boy. 😉

 

[luvmyhawks]

Nikkei tanking bigly

Down about 11% in 2 days. Starting to wonder if there isn’t some truth to what @Phenomenally Frantastic was saying earlier in this thread. No real reason for these markets to be tanking like this based off the economic data last week.

 

[TunzaHawk]

Could you elaborate?

Dollar is tanking versus the yen, thus more expensive to pay back loan.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Dollar is tanking versus the yen, thus more expensive to pay back loan.

You should go and actually watch the videos and read the links.