In 2019, Iowa State nearly opened with a loss to UNI. It took OT. Iowa opened 0-2 last year. ISU lost their opener and the CyHawk Game was lost.
Iowa won their final 6 games in 2020 and likely would have been a Top 10 candidate had they played Michigan and Missouri to closed out last year with a eight game win streak.
From The Athletic:
Lifelong Iowa State fan — do you buy into the hype this year? It seems everyone is predicting College Football Playoff or bust. Seems a bit aggressive … or am I just used to the old Iowa State? — Jeremy S., Des Moines, Iowa
This came up on “The Audible” podcast last week when Bruce Feldman and I were discussing the Big 12 race. Even though I praised the Cyclones and said I fully expect the conference title to come down to them and Oklahoma, he was a bit incredulous I wouldn’t go as far as him in saying Iowa State could win a Playoff game.
I hate to say this because it sounds like I’m dumping on Matt Campbell’s program because I have nothing but admiration for what he’s built there … but sorry, that’s not happening. Iowa State is infinitely better than it once was, and given it’s gone toe-to-toe with Oklahoma the past several years, there’s no reason to think the Cyclones can’t win the Big 12. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking a team whose best season in school history last year still included three losses — one of them by 17 points to Louisiana — is suddenly in the same stratosphere as Alabama/Clemson/Ohio State.
More realistically, Campbell has built a program in much the same vein as its cross-state rival. Most years, Iowa has at least a few elite NFL prospects, such as first-round tackle Tristan Wirfs and second-round DE A.J. Epenesa in 2020 and first-round tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant the year before that. But the bulk of the roster still consists of blue-collar overachiever types. As a result, Kirk Ferentz’s teams don’t have much margin for error. The difference between going 10-3 or 7-6 mostly comes down to their execution in close games that particular year. And the two best teams of his tenure, in 2002 and ’15, went 8-0 in the Big Ten but then got stomped in bowl games by more athletic teams in USC with Carson Palmer and Stanford with Christian McCaffrey.
Iowa State may well have a better team in 2021 than Iowa has ever had. We’ll see. If nothing else it’s incredibly experienced. But the formula is still much the same. Breece Hall is Dane Brugler’s No. 1 running back in the 2022 draft, but he’s also the only Cyclone among PFF’s preseason Top 50 prospects. I could see tight end Charlie Kolar, safety Greg Eisworth and linebacker Mike Rose going somewhere in the first three rounds, but that’s about it.
End of the day, it’s all about that margin of error. Iowa State went 4-2 in one-score games last year and finished in the top 10. The year before, it went 2-4 and finished 7-6. To me, the best-case scenario for the 2021 Cyclones would be to go to the Sugar Bowl, either as Big 12 champ or runner-up, and beat the SEC’s second- or third-place team. That would be an amazing season. Getting to the CFP would be a bigger accomplishment, but I fear that semifinal game would look a lot like Alabama’s 38-0 rout of overachiever Michigan State in 2015. - Stewart Mandel
Iowa opening 2-0 would be a nice development for 2021-22.
Is it worth the listen?
Final thought.
Iowa won their final 6 games in 2020 and likely would have been a Top 10 candidate had they played Michigan and Missouri to closed out last year with a eight game win streak.
From The Athletic:
Lifelong Iowa State fan — do you buy into the hype this year? It seems everyone is predicting College Football Playoff or bust. Seems a bit aggressive … or am I just used to the old Iowa State? — Jeremy S., Des Moines, Iowa
This came up on “The Audible” podcast last week when Bruce Feldman and I were discussing the Big 12 race. Even though I praised the Cyclones and said I fully expect the conference title to come down to them and Oklahoma, he was a bit incredulous I wouldn’t go as far as him in saying Iowa State could win a Playoff game.
I hate to say this because it sounds like I’m dumping on Matt Campbell’s program because I have nothing but admiration for what he’s built there … but sorry, that’s not happening. Iowa State is infinitely better than it once was, and given it’s gone toe-to-toe with Oklahoma the past several years, there’s no reason to think the Cyclones can’t win the Big 12. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking a team whose best season in school history last year still included three losses — one of them by 17 points to Louisiana — is suddenly in the same stratosphere as Alabama/Clemson/Ohio State.
More realistically, Campbell has built a program in much the same vein as its cross-state rival. Most years, Iowa has at least a few elite NFL prospects, such as first-round tackle Tristan Wirfs and second-round DE A.J. Epenesa in 2020 and first-round tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant the year before that. But the bulk of the roster still consists of blue-collar overachiever types. As a result, Kirk Ferentz’s teams don’t have much margin for error. The difference between going 10-3 or 7-6 mostly comes down to their execution in close games that particular year. And the two best teams of his tenure, in 2002 and ’15, went 8-0 in the Big Ten but then got stomped in bowl games by more athletic teams in USC with Carson Palmer and Stanford with Christian McCaffrey.
Iowa State may well have a better team in 2021 than Iowa has ever had. We’ll see. If nothing else it’s incredibly experienced. But the formula is still much the same. Breece Hall is Dane Brugler’s No. 1 running back in the 2022 draft, but he’s also the only Cyclone among PFF’s preseason Top 50 prospects. I could see tight end Charlie Kolar, safety Greg Eisworth and linebacker Mike Rose going somewhere in the first three rounds, but that’s about it.
End of the day, it’s all about that margin of error. Iowa State went 4-2 in one-score games last year and finished in the top 10. The year before, it went 2-4 and finished 7-6. To me, the best-case scenario for the 2021 Cyclones would be to go to the Sugar Bowl, either as Big 12 champ or runner-up, and beat the SEC’s second- or third-place team. That would be an amazing season. Getting to the CFP would be a bigger accomplishment, but I fear that semifinal game would look a lot like Alabama’s 38-0 rout of overachiever Michigan State in 2015. - Stewart Mandel
Iowa opening 2-0 would be a nice development for 2021-22.
Is it worth the listen?
Final thought.
