Analysis: Is Iowa good enough Defensively to win a National Championship? On March14, Per KenPom: Offensive efficiency: #2; Defensive efficiency: #50

[Franisdaman]

March 13 Update:

Per KenPom:

Offensive efficiency: #2
Defensive efficiency: #51


ORIGINAL POST:

This s a good story.

A couple notes from the story:

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:

EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?

This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.

robdauster.substack.com

The full Ken Pom Rankings: https://kenpom.com/

 

[T. Kimball]

Wow...that's sobering.

 

[Franisdaman]

We know the offense is elite.

Mike is a College Basketball color analyst for ESPN and CBS Sports .

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[AMAYS]

It's hard to see how Iowa improves markedly on the defensive end with J BO back in the mix, but it is easy to see Iowa improving on offense with him. If I was Fran, I would spend my time trying to take a very good offense and make it great. The team to mimic here is Michigan in 2014 and, to a lesser extent, in 2017.

From 2010-19, the Big Ten had 29 teams make the Sweet 16 or higher. Only 2 of those teams finished 10th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, Michigan in 2014 (12th in the league in defense, but conference champ and Elite 8), and Michigan in 2017 (12th in the league in defense, but Big Ten tourney champ and Sweet 16). So it's really hard to overcome being a bad defensive team, as Iowa was last year, finishing last (14th) in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play. But it can be done with truly great offense.

While Iowa led the league last year in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play (117.9 - Bart Torvik), that rating is only the 23rd highest offensive efficiency rating in conference play over the last 11 years (2010-2020). In contrast, Michigan overcame poor defense in 2014 (12th in the league) with a league-leading adjusted offensive rating in conference play of 125.7 (good for 5th best over the last 11 years), and did it again in 2017 with an adjusted offensive rating of 124.1 (good for 6th best over the last 11 years). So if I was Fran, the goal would be an offensive rating of 125 in conference play (becoming the 6th team to do that in the Big Ten since 2010). That is the kind of team that can overcome poor/mediocre defense and advance to the Sweet 16, or higher, after winning either a regular season or tournament title.

I also think the alternative of becoming a good defensive team is a fool's errand for this Iowa team. 24 of the 29 Big Ten teams to advance to the Sweet 16 from 2010-19 finished in the top 7 in the league in defensive efficiency, with 17 of those 24 teams being a top 4 defensive efficiency team. With Garza and J Bo on the floor for heavy minutes, being a top 4 defensive team in the conference is not even a remote possibility. Even being a top half team in terms of defensive efficiency is a big ask. But being a truly great offensive team is a real possibility, with Iowa's players. So while it may be counterintuitive, improvement on the offensive end, not the defensive end, is the way for Iowa to achieve its goals in 2020-21.

 

[DodgerHawki]

It's hard to see how Iowa improves markedly on the defensive end with J BO back in the mix, but it is easy to see Iowa improving on offense with him. If I was Fran, I would spend my time trying to take a very good offense and make it great. The team to mimic here is Michigan in 2014 and, to a lesser extent, in 2017.

From 2010-19, the Big Ten had 29 teams make the Sweet 16 or higher. Only 2 of those teams finished 10th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, Michigan in 2014 (12th in the league in defense, but conference champ and Elite 8), and Michigan in 2017 (12th in the league in defense, but Big Ten tourney champ and Sweet 16). So it's really hard to overcome being a bad defensive team, as Iowa was last year, finishing last (14th) in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play. But it can be done with truly great offense.

While Iowa lead the league last year in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play (117.9 - Bart Torvik), that rating is only the 23rd highest offensive efficiency rating in conference play over the last 11 years (2010-2020). In contrast, Michigan overcame poor defense in 2014 (12th in the league) with a league-leading adjusted offensive rating in conference play of 125.7 (good for 5th best over the last 11 years), and did it again in 2017 with an adjusted offensive rating of 124.1 (good for 6th best over the last 11 years). So if I was Fran, the goal would be an offensive rating of 125 in conference play (becoming the 6th team to do that in the Big Ten since 2010). That is the kind of team that can overcome poor/mediocre defense and advance to the Sweet 16, or higher, after winning either a regular season or tournament title.

I also think the alternative of becoming a good defensive team is a fool's errand for this Iowa team. 24 of the 29 Big Ten teams to advance to the Sweet 16 from 2010-19 finished in the top 7 in the league in defensive efficiency, with 17 of those 24 teams being a top 4 defensive efficiency team. With Garza and J Bo on the floor for heavy minutes, being a top 4 defensive team in the conference is not even a remote possibility. Even being a top half team in terms of defensive efficiency is a big ask. But being a truly great offensive team is a real possibility, with Iowa's players. So while it may be counterintuitive, improvement on the offensive end, not the defensive end, is the way for Iowa to achieve its goals in 2020-21.

I would agree with this. There is just no way Iowa becomes a really good defensive team. They just don't have the players to do it. As you pointed out, they are much more likely to be an elite offensive team. It does make it highly unlikely that they are a Final 4-type team, but there still is room for a lot of good stuff to happen this season.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Don’t look at how hard it is to make the Sweet 16 with an AdjO or AdjD of 100+. That’s quite sobering as well. Iowa’s defense will have to move to the next level in order to have a “successful” year. I’m pretty we can define that as making the second weekend. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Wow...that's sobering.

Yeah it's what some of us on the board have been saying for the last few years when the talk of deep tournament runs and Final 4's come up. It's why I'm not as high on Iowa's chances to win a Big 10 title as some others are. I like this team, a lot. Barring injury, they will likely win a lot of games. But the defense has been so far from being good that the team ends up losing some games (see at Penn State at the Palestra last year) where the offense plays very well but it's not enough. Or the games against Purdue last year or at Michigan, where Iowa just had zero chance to win those games because the defense was so bad.

I'm really hoping they are able to get in a full season of games this year. I really like the players on the team this year and how well they play together. But people shouldn't get despondent if the team loses a few games. They have some limitations.

 

[HawkeyeInCentralIowa]

If Oklahoma football can contend for national titles, Iowa basketball can contend for the final four.

 

[David1979]

Last year's defense definitely won't cut it. We will see what they can do this year though.

 

[DodgerHawki]

If Oklahoma football can contend for national titles, Iowa basketball can contend for the final four.

It's a good analogy. Oklahoma was really low on the defensive efficiency metrics for football in 2019. Elite offense, mediocre defense.

 

[David1979]

I do think they can improve this year. Now will the be elite? No. But they don't need to be elite to have a shot at the final four. They need to be in the top 50 going in to the tournament I believe though. But Bohannon should finally be 100% healthy which will help his defense as he has been battling foot and hip issues which greatly impacted his ability to defend especially. Touissant has the potential to be a great one on one defender and putting pressure on an opposing team's PG can go a long way to improving a defense. Frederick should be better in year two. Experience alone should help in improving the defense. Also think if Nunge is healthy he could help in being a rim protector because in his Freshman year he did show an ability to block shots.

 

[T. Kimball]

So the question in my mind is which frosh get playing time primarily due to defensive performance.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[CyberJJ]

It's a good analogy. Oklahoma was really low on the defensive efficiency metrics for football in 2019. Elite offense, mediocre defense.

The difference is with FB that one or two turnovers changes the entire complexion of a game, and you have to look at your metric of rating a defense. Is it scoring defense or yards defense, not always perfectly coorelated.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

It's a good analogy.

No. It’s not.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

It's hard to see how Iowa improves markedly on the defensive end with J BO back in the mix, but it is easy to see Iowa improving on offense with him. If I was Fran, I would spend my time trying to take a very good offense and make it great. The team to mimic here is Michigan in 2014 and, to a lesser extent, in 2017.

From 2010-19, the Big Ten had 29 teams make the Sweet 16 or higher. Only 2 of those teams finished 10th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, Michigan in 2014 (12th in the league in defense, but conference champ and Elite 8), and Michigan in 2017 (12th in the league in defense, but Big Ten tourney champ and Sweet 16). So it's really hard to overcome being a bad defensive team, as Iowa was last year, finishing last (14th) in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play. But it can be done with truly great offense.

While Iowa lead the league last year in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play (117.9 - Bart Torvik), that rating is only the 23rd highest offensive efficiency rating in conference play over the last 11 years (2010-2020). In contrast, Michigan overcame poor defense in 2014 (12th in the league) with a league-leading adjusted offensive rating in conference play of 125.7 (good for 5th best over the last 11 years), and did it again in 2017 with an adjusted offensive rating of 124.1 (good for 6th best over the last 11 years). So if I was Fran, the goal would be an offensive rating of 125 in conference play (becoming the 6th team to do that in the Big Ten since 2010). That is the kind of team that can overcome poor/mediocre defense and advance to the Sweet 16, or higher, after winning either a regular season or tournament title.

I also think the alternative of becoming a good defensive team is a fool's errand for this Iowa team. 24 of the 29 Big Ten teams to advance to the Sweet 16 from 2010-19 finished in the top 7 in the league in defensive efficiency, with 17 of those 24 teams being a top 4 defensive efficiency team. With Garza and J Bo on the floor for heavy minutes, being a top 4 defensive team in the conference is not even a remote possibility. Even being a top half team in terms of defensive efficiency is a big ask. But being a truly great offensive team is a real possibility, with Iowa's players. So while it may be counterintuitive, improvement on the offensive end, not the defensive end, is the way for Iowa to achieve its goals in 2020-21.

Interesting take.

 

[DanHawkPella]

I’d be impressed if Iowa finished 75th in adj defense.

A high octane offense with a bunch of 40% 3 point shooters and a stud in the post will give you a punchers chance against any team in the tournament.

Make the sweet 16 and then it’s game on imo and just play like it’s the 2nd half vs Tennessee and see what happens.

 

[DodgerHawki]

No. It’s not.

LOL. It was accurate in that Oklahoma last year was not very good on defense and very good on offense. I know it breaks down after that.

 

[CleteyColgate]

This s a good story.

A couple notes from the story:

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:

EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?

This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.

robdauster.substack.com

The incoming freshmen make us more athletic so that should help us on defense. But they are also freshmen.

 

[fezzador]

Let's slow the roll. If number-one overall seed UVA can get bounced on the first night, even a 1 seed Iowa can get bounced against a hot low-major. It's happened before with NW State way back when.

And that UVA team was damn good defensively. Iowa has a long way to go to be considered anything better than "mediocre".

Don't get me wrong, I love seeing Iowa hang 85 points a given night, but I'd rather Iowa win 75-65 type games than 88-87 nailbiters.

 

[icwesthawk]

So we have to be the first team to win it all with a top 75 defense. So what, some team is bound to do it some time and that time is now and that team is ours.

 

[CalmHawk]

One thing to consider is the style of play angle. Fast pace creates more possessions obviously. Teams like Virginia tend to slow play things at times. Hence better defensive strategy.

 

[DodgerHawki]

The defensive efficiency numbers take pace of play out of the conversation in terms of defining what is good/bad defense. Virginia is good at defense on an efficiency basis. Plus they play slow, so the raw point totals are held down.

There has been discussion on whether faster pace contributes to worse defensive efficiency. It may have some merit, as faster-pace with quick shots or live turnovers may lead to easy baskets at the other end.

 

[SSG T]

The defensive efficiency numbers take pace of play out of the conversation in terms of defining what is good/bad defense. Virginia is good at defense on an efficiency basis. Plus they play slow, so the raw point totals are held down.

There has been discussion on whether faster pace contributes to worse defensive efficiency. It may have some merit, as faster-pace with quick shots or live turnovers may lead to easy baskets at the other end.

I might agree if there weren't a bunch of P5 teams that played faster than IA and had better defensive efficiency #s. ASU, South Carolina, St John's, Duke, Arkansas, PSU, WSU, Marquette all had faster pace and better DRtg than Iowa. It's quite possible to play fast AND have an efficient defense.

Keep in mind, that list is all P5 , there are as many MM/LM types on that list as well, including Gonzaga.

One note, there are very few teams above Iowa in pace that have both good Ortg and good Drtg (say, top 50 in each). That list is Duke (9/12), Gonzaga (1/43), PSU (43/23). That's it, 3 teams. It's really hard to have a good/great offense and defense at the same time.

I've said before, Iowa will have a good to great offense every year. They had an elite offense last year (top 5), they could very well have the best offense in the nation this year. If they can get their defense into the top 50/75 range, they can win a national title. They don't need a great defense, but they do need a decent/good one. Their defense last year was really kind of meh, not bad, but really not very good either.

 

[Ronman]

Don't get me wrong, I love seeing Iowa hang 85 points a given night, but I'd rather Iowa win 75-65 type games than 88-87 nailbiters.

Not me. That's Wisconsin basketball. If it's a W, I would rather it be a high scoring exciting game. Much more exhilarating after a hard fought battle that ends with the Hawks on top.

 

[fezzador]

Not me. That's Wisconsin basketball. If it's a W, I would rather it be a high scoring exciting game. Much more exhilarating after a hard fought battle that ends with the Hawks on top.

Heh. Wisconsin basketball is 58-52

 

[Ronman]

Somewhere in the middle. Last season it was 67-62.

 

[HawkAssassin]

I kinda go back and forth on how much better I think Iowa can get defensively. That being said, I think Iowa might have an easier time in B1G play.

TBH, it seems like a down year for PG play in the conference.

Top 5 guys that Iowa's defense went up against last year (no particular order)
Winston
Simpson
Dosunmu
Cowan
Carr

Top 5 guys this year
Dosunmu
Carr
Trice ?
Smith from Mich ?
Watts ?

There's a lot of unproven guys and guys who have to make a big leap.

NCAA tournament is a different story.

 

[mikesright]

Depth makes a big difference on defense. Iowa is pretty deep all around compared to last year when we were rolling with 6 or 7 scholarship players at times. Last year we really didn't have the personnel to adjust the scheme on defense to try to throw a Purdue or Michigan off their game, and we couldn't substitute certain players that were gassed either, especially if we had foul trouble.

Now we get Bohannon, Nunge, and PMac back in the fold after injuries/sickness, along with 5 new freshman. I think they'll be able to find a couple of guys out of that group that can really contribute some good defensive play with relatively little pressure on them to contribute offensively other than hitting a wide open shot once in a while. I like our odds to improve.

 

[Suterman]

Bottom line is we have a chance in every game we play, maybe a really good chance. This may be our best offensive team since the 80's. It could be a special year and let's hope it plays out that way.

 

[BirdistheWord]

defensive rebounding will need to be better, that could cover up a mediocre defense. We were ranked #129 last year.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

defensive rebounding will need to be better, that could cover up a mediocre defense. We were ranked #129 last year.

Exactly what I was gonna say. The initial defense is mediocre at best. When they give the opponent another chance by not securing the board, that’s when it gets ugly for Iowa.

Anyone hoping for a miraculous turnaround on D is not being realistic. It’s just not gonna happen. Cleaning up the 2nd shots would help a lot.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Garza made some huge steps last year on defense. If him and Bohannon both improve a little more, we can be a top 60 defensive team. I can’t remember a senior laden team that didn’t play at least good defense.

 

[jasonrann]

I would agree with this. There is just no way Iowa becomes a really good defensive team. They just don't have the players to do it. As you pointed out, they are much more likely to be an elite offensive team. It does make it highly unlikely that they are a Final 4-type team, but there still is room for a lot of good stuff to happen this season.

They don't need to be a really good defensive team, just better. One area that is easily correctable is rebounding.

 

[DodgerHawki]

They don't need to be a really good defensive team, just better. One area that is easily correctable is rebounding.

the original post pointed out that teams that aren't really good on defense don't make it to the Final 4. Iowa will try to be an exception this year. I too hope for improvement.

 

[TooTall25]

Was Loyola a good defensive team when they made the Final Four a couple of years ago? I'm thinking not. End of point.

 

[SSG T]

Was Loyola a good defensive team when they made the Final Four a couple of years ago? I'm thinking not. End of point.

Loyola was 17th in the country in AdjD in 2018...the year they made the Final Four. So, yes, they were a good defensive team.

 

[littlez]

Loyola was a very good defensive team. Not sure what you are talking about. Anyway, I agree on some things and not on others. Hopefully having more depth will keep us fresher and if guys aren't playing as many minutes that should be a good thing. Luka played a lot of minutes last year, and I do think he wore down a bit at the end of the season. He plays so hard it's tough. A basic problem is we just aren't very quick. Luka, Nunge, JBO are slow. It is what it is. We're also not very good at defending the pick and roll. Especially when Luka is forced into it. Not dogging him, as he more than makes up for it on the other end and w/his crazy work ethic. This team will be crazy good on offense. Top 60 on defense would give us a chance to make the Final 4 in my opinion.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Loyola was a very good defensive team. Not sure what you are talking about. Anyway, I agree on some things and not on others. Hopefully having more depth will keep us fresher and if guys aren't playing as many minutes that should be a good thing. Luka played a lot of minutes last year, and I do think he wore down a bit at the end of the season. He plays so hard it's tough. A basic problem is we just aren't very quick. Luka, Nunge, JBO are slow. It is what it is. We're also not very good at defending the pick and roll. Especially when Luka is forced into it. Not dogging him, as he more than makes up for it on the other end and w/his crazy work ethic. This team will be crazy good on offense. Top 60 on defense would give us a chance to make the Final 4 in my opinion.

Generally agree. There are physical limitations that make it hard for Iowa to be really good on defense. Folks on this thread kind of seem to be talking past each other. A national writer points out Iowa would be bucking precedent in a big way by making it to a Final 4 with a defense this bad. People disagree and say "Iowa will be great on offense and only need the defense to be okay." When pretty much history says a great offense and a mediocre defense is not enough to get to the Final 4. Iowa's offense was good last year and will be good again this year, but it's not so elite that the results will be much different than last year (if the defense doesn't improve).

Would getting to the Top 60 in defense get Iowa to the Final 4? Maybe. The issue is that even at 60, that would make Iowa one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and well in the lowest quartile for power conference teams. Elite teams play really good defense. I know, real surprising. Hopefully Hawks stay healthy this year and get the improvement they are looking for. They will be a real fun team to watch.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Exactly what I was gonna say. The initial defense is mediocre at best. When they give the opponent another chance by not securing the board, that’s when it gets ugly for Iowa.

Anyone hoping for a miraculous turnaround on D is not being realistic. It’s just not gonna happen. Cleaning up the 2nd shots would help a lot.

While we have identified the illness, the cure is a little more difficult to pin down. We have, largely, the same nucleus, which is not really built for rebounding. Hoping addition of Nunge and PMac alone will provide a boost plus a little bit of focus/technique for rest of the crew. Dont need to be world beaters, just make a nice improvement.