Analysis: Is Iowa good enough Defensively to win a National Championship? On March14, Per KenPom: Offensive efficiency: #2; Defensive efficiency: #50

[perryhawk]

Generally agree. There are physical limitations that make it hard for Iowa to be really good on defense. Folks on this thread kind of seem to be talking past each other. A national writer points out Iowa would be bucking precedent in a big way by making it to a Final 4 with a defense this bad. People disagree and say "Iowa will be great on offense and only need the defense to be okay." When pretty much history says a great offense and a mediocre defense is not enough to get to the Final 4. Iowa's offense was good last year and will be good again this year, but it's not so elite that the results will be much different than last year (if the defense doesn't improve).

Would getting to the Top 60 in defense get Iowa to the Final 4? Maybe. The issue is that even at 60, that would make Iowa one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and well in the lowest quartile for power conference teams. Elite teams play really good defense. I know, real surprising. Hopefully Hawks stay healthy this year and get the improvement they are looking for. They will be a real fun team to watch.

I think that in general terms, a big picture view, this is spot on. If I had my choice we would be a top level defensive team. Top level (top 20) defense is needed to make the final 4........but there are caveat's to that premise. The path your team takes in terms of match-ups, stepping up on defense for limited times, and the opposition just having an off shooting game could still get a team there.....the odds are lower, but it is possible to get their with a top 50-60 defense. (just a guess)

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

If Oklahoma football can contend for national titles, Iowa basketball can contend for the final four.

Not really worried, at all...…….a infinitesimally small improvement on defense, can provide
thee Iowa Hawkeyes with enough to beat all comers. When you are loaded with the
College Player of the Year, best 3 point shooters in Big10, plus another NBA prospect or 2, it won't take much on defense. #GoHawks

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

Iowa this year basically has what was the equivalent of a peak Hoiberg team. Absolutely elite offense, defense that will be sketchy at best. There is a ceiling for those teams. I think basically every team that has made a final four has been in the top 20 of both offense and defense efficiency. Correct me if I'm wrong but that was a stat out there at one time.

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

I think that in general terms, a big picture view, this is spot on. If I had my choice we would be a top level defensive team. Top level (top 20) defense is needed to make the final 4........but there are caveat's to that premise. The path your team takes in terms of match-ups, stepping up on defense for limited times, and the opposition just having an off shooting game could still get a team there.....the odds are lower, but it is possible to get their with a top 50-60 defense. (just a guess)

I looked up a few years. I was wrong about the top 20 thing.

2019 Final Four defensive efficiency ranks per KenPom: 1, 5, 9, 36 (Auburn)
2018: 3, 11, 17, 47 (KU)
2017: 1, 3, 11, 17
2016: 5, 17, 18, 21
2015: 1, 11, 27, 35 (Wisconsin)
2014: 3, 10, 13, 35 (Wisconsin)
2013: 1, 6, 20, 37 (Michigan)
2012: 1, 3, 4, 7
2011: 15, 16, 46 (Butler), 78 (VCU)
2010: 5, 7, 21, 27 (MSU)

Really stood out to me that the #1 defensive efficiency team has made it to the FF 5 of the last 10 years. I put the outliers on the list. I think there's one clear outlier (VCU) going from the first four to the final four. everybody else seems to be in the 30s for the most part. The Wisconsin teams had unbelievably efficient offenses, kind of like Iowa's. Certainly possible to make a run, and this could absolutely be the year to do it because it's going to be a really weird year. 2011 weird? We'll see.

 

[perryhawk]

I looked up a few years. I was wrong about the top 20 thing.

2019 Final Four defensive efficiency ranks per KenPom: 1, 5, 9, 36 (Auburn)
2018: 3, 11, 17, 47 (KU)
2017: 1, 3, 11, 17
2016: 5, 17, 18, 21
2015: 1, 11, 27, 35 (Wisconsin)
2014: 3, 10, 13, 35 (Wisconsin)
2013: 1, 6, 20, 37 (Michigan)
2012: 1, 3, 4, 7
2011: 15, 16, 46 (Butler), 78 (VCU)
2010: 5, 7, 21, 27 (MSU)

Really stood out to me that the #1 defensive efficiency team has made it to the FF 5 of the last 10 years. I put the outliers on the list. I think there's one clear outlier (VCU) going from the first four to the final four. everybody else seems to be in the 30s for the most part. The Wisconsin teams had unbelievably efficient offenses, kind of like Iowa's. Certainly possible to make a run, and this could absolutely be the year to do it because it's going to be a really weird year. 2011 weird? We'll see.

Good stuff.....thanks for the research. In 2011 there was both the #46 and #78 ranked team.......If the Hawks could get their defensive efficiency to 50...we have a shot?

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

Good stuff.....thanks for the research. In 2011 there was both the #46 and #78 ranked team.......If the Hawks could get their defensive efficiency into the to 50...we have a shot?

That was an extremely wild year - Butler was #46 and VCU was #78. VCU Started in the first four as an 11 seed, played 10 seed FSU in the sweet 16 to advance to play KU and beat them in the EE. Butler was an 8 seed and rolled through pretty easy too. I mean it happens, and I'd rather have a team that's elite at something like Iowa is on offense than just ho hum at everything.

I'd say it looks like you really want your efficiency in the 30s - only 3 of the 40 FF teams in the last decade was above that. But clearly it happens.

 

[blockm2]

When assessing Iowa’s likely defensive efficiency this season is it good enough depends on what you are asking for.

for a national title? Extremely unlikely.
final four? Probably not
Sweet 16? Definitely as long as don't catch a hot opponent or go cold at the wrong tine
Conference title? Maybe bit will be tough

Returning so many starters is a bit of a catch 22 in that you know what you have but also unlikely to make massive improvements. I mean they were atrocious last season defensively so maybe get a bit better to just being mediocre would help a lot to go along with elite offense.

 

[AMAYS]

When assessing Iowa’s likely defensive efficiency this season is it good enough depends on what you are asking for.

for a national title? Extremely unlikely.
final four? Probably not
Sweet 16? Definitely as long as don't catch a hot opponent or go cold at the wrong tine
Conference title? Maybe bit will be tough

Returning so many starters is a bit of a catch 22 in that you know what you have but also unlikely to make massive improvements. I mean they were atrocious last season defensively so maybe get a bit better to just being mediocre would help a lot to go along with elite offense.

Good post. I would add one more category: Elite Eight (EE). Over the last 10 NCAA tourneys, 7 teams made the EE with a below 50 defensive efficiency rating, two of which were the good luck variety (Xavier - 2017 - Offensive Efficiency Rank 29; Defensive Efficiency Rank 67; Dayton - 2014 - O Rank 37; D Rank 72), with 5 teams potentially resembling Iowa as very good to great offensive teams, and mediocre at best defensive teams:


Arizona 2011 - Offensive Efficiency 117.4 (rank 12); Defensive Efficiency rank 67
Florida 2012 - Offensive Efficiency 120.4 (rank 3); Defensive Efficiency rank 80
Michigan 2014 - Offensive Efficiency 123.9 (rank 3); Defensive Efficiency rank 89
Notre Dame 2015 - Offensive Efficiency 125.4 (rank 2); Defensive Efficiency rank 99
Notre Dame 2016 - Offensive Efficiency 120.6 (rank 9); Defensive Efficiency rank 158

IMO, for Iowa to reach its ceiling, the key will be continued improvement on the offensive end, going from last year's offensive efficiency of 117.3 to something in the range of 123-125. With that kind of offensive efficiency, Iowa can afford to have a defensive efficiency rank of 75-90, which would still be somewhat of an improvement over last year (rank 97).

 

[IamHawkeye]

This s a good story.

A couple notes from the story:

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:

EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?

This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.

robdauster.substack.com

Well, people think Miller's last team should have been in Final four and won, and they were about all offense, least seems so to me.

 

[SSG T]

Well, people think Miller's last team should have been in Final four and won, and they were about all offense, least seems so to me.

That 1970 team outscored their opponents by nearly 12ppg. The Hawks have done that once since Davis left, 2013-14. Iowa did it 5 times under Davis, once under Raveling and zero under Olson (close in 78-79 season). That 1970 team was really good at both ends.

 

[blockm2]

Good post. I would add one more category: Elite Eight (EE). Over the last 10 NCAA tourneys, 7 teams made the EE with a below 50 defensive efficiency rating, two of which were the good luck variety (Xavier - 2017 - Offensive Efficiency Rank 29; Defensive Efficiency Rank 67; Dayton - 2014 - O Rank 37; D Rank 72), with 5 teams potentially resembling Iowa as very good to great offensive teams, and mediocre at best defensive teams:


Arizona 2011 - Offensive Efficiency 117.4 (rank 12); Defensive Efficiency rank 67
Florida 2012 - Offensive Efficiency 120.4 (rank 3); Defensive Efficiency rank 80
Michigan 2014 - Offensive Efficiency 123.9 (rank 3); Defensive Efficiency rank 89
Notre Dame 2015 - Offensive Efficiency 125.4 (rank 2); Defensive Efficiency rank 99
Notre Dame 2016 - Offensive Efficiency 120.6 (rank 9); Defensive Efficiency rank 158

IMO, for Iowa to reach its ceiling, the key will be continued improvement on the offensive end, going from last year's offensive efficiency of 117.3 to something in the range of 123-125. With that kind of offensive efficiency, Iowa can afford to have a defensive efficiency rank of 75-90, which would still be somewhat of an improvement over last year (rank 97).

mostly agree but massive caveat to absolute adjusted offensive efficiencies is that they vary year to year based on rule and emphasis changes. Will be hard for Iowa to improve much offensively relative to rest of country. If the scoring environment becomes friendlier and their O efficiency improves, that would correspondingly make their defensive numbers worse.

 

[AMAYS]

mostly agree but massive caveat to absolute adjusted offensive efficiencies is that they vary year to year based on rule and emphasis changes. Will be hard for Iowa to improve much offensively relative to rest of country. . . .

Very good point about the problematical nature of year to year comparisons in terms of absolute offensive efficiency numbers. Still, I believe there is room for Iowa to improve its absolute offensive efficiency (AdjO) relative to the rest of the conference, and the country. I say this because last season, Iowa's offensive efficiency number was quite low, for the league leader, both in absolute terms, and relative to the median Big Ten offense. Consider the following data for the Big Ten for the last 10 seasons. Not only was Iowa's 2020 league-leading number the lowest in the last 10 years in terms of absolute offensive efficiency, the difference between Iowa, as the league leader, and the median Big Ten offense, was the second smallest of the last 10 years. With J Bo back, I believe Iowa can improve its offensive efficiency, relative to the league and much of the country.

Year	BIG AdjO Leader	Median BIG AdjO	Difference
2011	OSU 125.0	113.1	11.9
2012	IU 120.2	114.0	6.2
2013	Michigan 121.9	110.2	11.7
2014	Michigan 123.9	109.8	14.1
2015	Wisconsin 129.0	111.1	17.9
2016	MSU 123.4	110.75	12.65
2017	Michigan 122.3	111.35	10.95
2018	Purdue 122.7	112.35	10.35
2019	Purdue 122.5	110.9	11.6
2020	Iowa 117.3	110.85	6.45

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

Iowa's last three years though: 117.3, 117.4, and 116.6. Last year Iowa averaged 72 possessions per game. Even if Iowa goes up to 120 offensive efficiency, that's like 1 or 2 more PPG. That's possible and something to shoot for, sure, but It's much more likely that the defense improves.

 

[83Hawk]

No.

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[littlez]

Playing the devils advocate, why does anyone think the defense will improve? Give me something to believe in!

 

[Ronman]

It's really on our Joes. If Joe W. can get his shooting percentages back up to, say where CJ's were and Joe T. shoots the ball the entire year like he did coming down the stretch, our offensive output will be greatly enhanced.

 

[skydog0784]

Playing the devils advocate, why does anyone think the defense will improve? Give me something to believe in!

I’ll give it a run...

1. Joe T has a year of experience improving his understanding of defensive schemes, switches, etc.

2. JBo playing with two good hips for the first time in his career.

3. CJF should be playing pain free with one (maybe two, can’t quite remember) surgeries on his foot (feet). He already understands the defensive schemes very well because he’s talented, a heady player and redshirted his first year.

4. Joe W has an additional year of strength training which seemed to be a weakness for him last year at times.

5. Garza will have more offensive weapons surrounding him so he shouldn’t have to work as hard on the offensive end and have more energy to expend on the defensive end.

6. Deeper bench = fewer minutes for our premiere players = fresher legs & defensive intensity. More depth means the players need to bring it defensively or they’ll get fewer minutes.

7. The boys know this can be a very special year with the understanding they must excel on the defensive end to achieve their goals this year. They will highly motivated to bring it on the defensive end.

 

[twindman]

I’ll give it a run...

1. Joe T has a year of experience improving his understanding of defensive schemes, switches, etc.

2. JBo playing with two good hips for the first time in his career.

3. CJF should be playing pain free with one (maybe two, can’t quite remember) surgeries on his foot (feet). He already understands the defensive schemes very well because he’s talented, a heady player and redshirted his first year.

4. Joe W has an additional year of strength training which seemed to be a weakness for him last year at times.

5. Garza will have more offensive weapons surrounding him so he shouldn’t have to work as hard on the offensive end and have more energy to expend on the defensive end.

6. Deeper bench = fewer minutes for our premiere players = fresher legs & defensive intensity. More depth means the players need to bring it defensively or they’ll get fewer minutes.

7. The boys know this can be a very special year with the understanding they must excel on the defensive end to achieve their goals this year. They will highly motivated to bring it on the defensive end.

As I stated elsewhere, I think #2 will be a big boost. I thought last year when he played he moved laterally pretty well to stay in front of guys. And for #5, Garza making 15 foot hook shots and 40 foot jumpers will boost his O. LOL

 

[John Thompson]

I have been refraining to get too excited and it's mostly due to defense. There is no doubt they will be able to score against pretty much anyone. Can they stop top athletic teams? The Hawks have talent, but still won't be the most athletic group. This is why I worry about a top five ranking early on as they team works on gelling defensively.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Tempo is part of the problem. I honestly think we would see better results if we eased of the accelerator just a bit.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

PMac is an improvement, athletically, if he is healthy.
And having more quality depth, especially in the backcourt, will help defensively, as well.
One more 7 footer can make a difference too. Jack Nunge needs to block some shots.

#gohawks

 

[blockm2]

Very good point about the problematical nature of year to year comparisons in terms of absolute offensive efficiency numbers. Still, I believe there is room for Iowa to improve its absolute offensive efficiency (AdjO) relative to the rest of the conference, and the country. I say this because last season, Iowa's offensive efficiency number was quite low, for the league leader, both in absolute terms, and relative to the median Big Ten offense. Consider the following data for the Big Ten for the last 10 seasons. Not only was Iowa's 2020 league-leading number the lowest in the last 10 years in terms of absolute offensive efficiency, the difference between Iowa, as the league leader, and the median Big Ten offense, was the second smallest of the last 10 years. With J Bo back, I believe Iowa can improve its offensive efficiency, relative to the league and much of the country.

Year	BIG AdjO Leader	Median BIG AdjO	Difference
2011	OSU 125.0	113.1	11.9
2012	IU 120.2	114.0	6.2
2013	Michigan 121.9	110.2	11.7
2014	Michigan 123.9	109.8	14.1
2015	Wisconsin 129.0	111.1	17.9
2016	MSU 123.4	110.75	12.65
2017	Michigan 122.3	111.35	10.95
2018	Purdue 122.7	112.35	10.35
2019	Purdue 122.5	110.9	11.6
2020	Iowa 117.3	110.85	6.45

The primary reason the gap between Iowa and the median Big Ten offense was so small is that the Big Ten had 5 teams with KenPom top 20 offenses last year. In no small coincidence, that is the first time that has happened since the 2012 season which is the only one with a smaller gap in your list.

Last year's conference was so loaded that it was hard for anybody to shine statistically in any major regard compared to everyone else.


Also John Gasaway has an article about major college teams that return "everybody" and how any improvement they make is usually on offense. Teams returning everybody rarely get much better on defense.

 

[Franisdaman]

If we stay healthy, I think anything is possible.

Check this out.

 

[HerkyFan]

Let's slow the roll. If number-one overall seed UVA can get bounced on the first night, even a 1 seed Iowa can get bounced against a hot low-major. It's happened before with NW State way back when.

And that UVA team was damn good defensively. Iowa has a long way to go to be considered anything better than "mediocre".

Don't get me wrong, I love seeing Iowa hang 85 points a given night, but I'd rather Iowa win 75-65 type games than 88-87 nailbiters.

UVA is a great opposite example to the Hawks. Teams with tremendous Offense or Defense can be beat by anyone if the other team can stay in the game and get a few breaks down the stretch.

 

[blockm2]

UVA is a great opposite example to the Hawks. Teams with tremendous Offense or Defense can be beat by anyone if the other team can stay in the game and get a few breaks down the stretch.

UVA is an opposite in terms of pace, but they were great on offense and defense in terms of efficiency.

 

[Franisdaman]

So far, not so good?

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

So far, not so good?

TBD. Sample size too small this year to make any sort of determination + we’ve played two bad teams. There are some bright spots when looking at the raw numbers in comparison to last year though. Let’s revisit this after the Gonzaga game.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

The getting outrebounded by Southern is concerning

 

[hexumhawk]

Generally...NO

But if you are that good on offense sometimes it doesn't matter. All we really need them to do is not give up easy buckets down low which is an unfortunate trait of Fran teams. Rebound and foul if need be around the hoop.

 

[SSG T]

Tempo is part of the problem. I honestly think we would see better results if we eased of the accelerator just a bit.

The following major teams last year played faster than Iowa and had a Top 50 AdjD.

ASU
S Carolina
Memphis
Duke
Gonzaga
Penn St

Consider that there were only about 8-9 HMs that played faster than Iowa, and a big % of them played pretty high level defense. Nebraska (the only P5 team to play fast than Iowa and have a worse defense) and UNC were two very notable fast paced teams that played crap defense last year. Tempo isn't the issue, playing bad defense is.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

The following major teams last year played faster than Iowa and had a Top 50 AdjD.

ASU
S Carolina
Memphis
Duke
Gonzaga
Penn St

Consider that there were only about 8-9 HMs that played faster than Iowa, and a big % of them played pretty high level defense. Nebraska (the only P5 team to play fast than Iowa and have a worse defense) and UNC were two very notable fast paced teams that played crap defense last year. Tempo isn't the issue, playing bad defense is.

And allowing 2nd/3rd shots

 

[Ronman]

We've been discussing this same subject for years now. McCaffery has brought it up himself every single season. You would think he would do something about it. I know he is extraordinarily faithful to his coaching staff, but if we are going to reach the next level, shouldn't he be bringing in an assistant coach that has a proven record defensively?

 

[AMAYS]

We've been discussing this same subject for years now. McCaffery has brought it up himself every single season. You would think he would do something about it. I know he is extraordinarily faithful to his coaching staff, but if we are going to reach the next level, shouldn't he be bringing in an assistant coach that has a proven record defensively?

I suspect the right new assistant/change in approach could help somewhat, but the real issue is the Jimmys and the Joes, not X’s and O’s. Iowa had good defensive teams in 2015 and 2016 (both years top 35 Adj D), when it had a roster of guys that could collectively play solid or better D. So Fran and staff could teach good D to the right roster. Since then, recruiting has produced a roster with massive defensive shortcomings, with resulting poor defensive numbers.

 

[HawkRugged17]

I suspect the right new assistant/change in approach could help somewhat, but the real issue is the Jimmys and the Joes, not X’s and O’s. Iowa had good defensive teams in 2015 and 2016 (both years top 35 Adj D), when it had a roster of guys that could collectively play solid or better D. So Fran and staff could teach good D to the right roster. Since then, recruiting has produced a roster with massive defensive shortcomings, with resulting poor defensive numbers.

 

[slipHawk]

We know the answer to this is no, but we sure hope IOWA can just outscore 'em.

 

[slipHawk]

Garza's interior D is championship level, but he needs some help.

 

[Hawksfor3]

not give up easy buckets down low

Agree. Too many layups given up. Also, extend more on the 3 point line.

 

[HawkTex]

This s a good story.

A couple notes from the story:

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:

EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?

This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.

robdauster.substack.com

Hawks are not even close on the defensive side of things. Fran may have to look at Joe T. and Uhlis on the court at the same time against teams with lightening quick guards. JBO will struggle against those type of guards.

 

[kcgolfer]

This s a good story.

A couple notes from the story:

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:

EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?

This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.

robdauster.substack.com

Not after 2 games. I am hoping they can get better in that area fast. If we don’t, our rebounding will have to pick it up.