https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ball-rankings-andy-katzs-power-36-teams-right
7 B1G teams ahead of us.
Where did he go wrong? What is he missing?
7 B1G teams ahead of us.
Where did he go wrong? What is he missing?
Andy Katz Preseason Prognostication
- Thread starter Raptorpeeps
- Start date
Is anyone arguing otherwise, especially with the uncertain status of Jordan? I think most sane people were thinking Iowa would be a bubble team in 2019-2020 prior to Jordan’s injury news. Now, assuming he’s lost for the year, it’s going to be a rough year.
Also, it’s one person’s prediction. How did his B1G pre season prediction work out for him last year?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...andy-katzs-predictions-and-power-rankings?amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...andy-katzs-predictions-and-power-rankings?amp
This guy has us at #16 in the nation. Seems a bit optimistic.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/
If everyone came back and we avoided injuries, I could see us as a top 25 team. But losing Cook, Moss, and if we lose JBo for 2019/2020, we probably aren't even a tourney team. With all of the losses that other Big Ten teams have had to the draft, the conference will be down and so will our strength of schedule.
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He has us 'in the mix' or around 40th. At this point, I can live with that. We have plenty of uncertainty with JBo likely gone. That said, I think we can surprise plenty of people, especially if we get Evelyn.
I used to put more stock in Katz opinions than I have for the past couple of years. I can understand putting Iowa in the middle of the B1G somewhere, which is probably the safest prediction. I think there are only 3 or 4 B1G teams that are clearly better, and 2 or 3 that are clearly worse. I want to be optimistic, so I am hoping for a few spots higher than Katz prediction.
If you look at his BPM stats associated with Box +- from sports reference he had a 4.6 rating, in comparison to Cook who had a 4.2 and Wiescamp who had an 11.9. Sure it will be a major offensive loss, but with that said, if someone can come in and play better defense, his numbers/minutes won't be impossible to replace.
I think it’s about right. There is a very vocal segment of the board that insists that we will be better next season than we were last season. I am hoping to hear from them.
Obviously, “it’s one person’s prediction.” I think we’re all agreed that Andy Katz is, indeed one person. So ... again,....where did he go wrong? What is he missing? (This year)
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You and I have gone back and forth and I have been one who thought Iowa would be as good, if not a little better (but not a Big Ten Title contender by any means). However, I said all that before Bohannon situation. I do think Bohannon brings some swagger, confidence, and big shot/big game ability that Cook and Moss usually did not. If he doesn't play, I am a lot less optimistic. With Bohannon, I feel strongly will be a tournament team with a chance to be a better seed.
See post #2 for my response. I’m certainly less than optimistic since our depth at guard, assuming Jordan is out, is lacking. Bubble team with Jordan, NIT, or worse, without Jordan.
A prediction of 8th by Katz puts Iowa squarely on the bubble, assuming the conference is strong. If the conference strength resembles 2018 then 8th doesn’t even sniff the bubble, let alone the NIT.
If anyone thinks they know what will happen next year with this team, I can guarantee they will most likely be wrong. I know I sure was last year. I assumed that since Garza was injured to start the season, Iowa would struggle until he made it back. Then Pemsl and Nunge were held out and I thought Iowa was effed inside. Turns out that was not correct.
Who the hell knows what will happen? I sure don't, but I know that they still have the pieces to have a pretty damn good year.
Overall, you’re 100% right. Hawks will miss JB late in games though if he’s out. He was a solid go to option
He was just about the only late game option.
Yeah Wieskamp is gonna have to take a big step forward. I could see Fredrick making some big shots too. His demeanor reminds me of Bohannon’s quite a bit
All the losses from teams like Michigan, Minnesota, Purdue heck even Nebraska really weakened the B1G. I think the conference only gets 6 in this next year. Hawks will be somewhere between 5-9 in conference right now with a healthy JBo. If he is gone or even limited Hawks are an NIT team. I think the B1G struggles in the non con outside of Michigan St and then beats itself up in conference. The B1G pays for it come March.
Sucks the ACC got most of their quality fringe draft guys back to go a long with great recruiting classes even guys rated higher than guys like Cook, Roby, Poole, Iggy and Coffey (all who would have been top 15 B1G players next year). Losing those guys killed the B1G and really weakened the conference from 2nd to the bottom.
Clearly better going into the season: Based on my limited knowledge of recruiting, I would say MSU is the clear favorite, and one of the best teams in the country. OSU and Maryland should be very good.
Clearly worse: Nebraska and Northwestern look awful to me.
Again, I am not the best source, but I would say the rest of the teams have a lot of what ifs. Unfortunately, I think Illannoy should be one of the most improved. I have a hard time seeing PSU finishing in the top half. Otherwise, it is very difficult to make predictions (for teams like the Hawks).
A lot of rubes here going to be proven wrong when they realize how good Nunge and Fredrick will be.
CJF was cutting up Moss earlier in practice.
CJF was cutting up Moss earlier in practice.
Another way to look at it is the Katz put Iowa in his top 40. Sure 7 B10 teams were in front, but maybe he expects the B10 to be very good next year?
Sounds like insider info... Do share on CJ! Did you hear it from a player, watch a practice, or someone that observed a practice?
We have heard that Nunge will be a beast. Randazzo talked to both Baer brothers, and they said Jack is the man.
That is great to hear. But anything on CJ, besides Fran's hyperbole, would be nice to get a quote on. It's probably out there, but I missed it.
I've had the chance to see them in practice this past year. I would compare Jack to more skilled version of Michael Jacobsen. I think the bar was set unreasonably high for him as a true freshman following a dominant Prime Time performance. He initially started over Garza. Big men typically take a year or two to develop at the college level. Adam Woodbury averaged 4.9 ppg and 4.8 rpg as a freshman and his senior year nearly doubled those. Jared Reiner averaged 3 and 3 his first two years and was at 10 and 8 his last two. We also all saw the tremendous development of Kriener last season while many wrote him off as a mid major player the offseason before. With Nunge's combination of size and shooting ability, he should be a double digit scorer for us.
Several point back to Fran's comments about Oglesby being the best shooter he's ever had in practice. Oglesby did have great shooting ability. He had two seasons where he shot near 40%. The problem was he couldn't create his own shot and better defenses pressured him unlike what he would see in practice where he got lots of open looks. I don't think Fran's words were untrue, it just rang hollow with fans frustrated by his 29% 3pt shooting his senior year. By contrast, from what I've seen from CJ, he looks like a much more complete player. His ball handling, passing and ability to get into the lane is superior to Moss and he shoots the ball just as well. I think next year his production will likely be comparable to Moss with a 7-9 ppg average.
Thanks 84! I was thinking that CJ could be what you described. Above average ballhandler, good shooter and the ability to take it to the hole.... However, this was only From his tapes, knowing he had another year to develop, and the fact that Moss left(meaning losing PT to CJ).
Nunge has the skillset to be a darn good player. He wasn't that small to begin with (literally 50 pounds heavier than PMac). Now that he has gainer another 25lbs of muscle, that is huge. Plus his continued development. The comments from the Baer bros are fantastic as well.
Very excited to see these two (and Pemsl and the others)... Hearing it from somebody other than Fran, and describing it as Fran has, is awesome. Thanks again!
Nunge has the skillset to be a darn good player. He wasn't that small to begin with (literally 50 pounds heavier than PMac). Now that he has gainer another 25lbs of muscle, that is huge. Plus his continued development. The comments from the Baer bros are fantastic as well.
Very excited to see these two (and Pemsl and the others)... Hearing it from somebody other than Fran, and describing it as Fran has, is awesome. Thanks again!
I'm not worried about Pmac's weight in comparison to Nunge.
Nunge will play in the post and rely on the 10 to 15 foot range, with ability to space the floor or hit trailing 3s.
Pmac will play mid range to perimeter. He's a solid ball handler for his height. His length could create mismatches ar the 3.
I don't expect him to be posting up or defending against bigger power forwards.
Nunge will play in the post and rely on the 10 to 15 foot range, with ability to space the floor or hit trailing 3s.
Pmac will play mid range to perimeter. He's a solid ball handler for his height. His length could create mismatches ar the 3.
I don't expect him to be posting up or defending against bigger power forwards.
My dream for Nunge is a Frank Kaminsky clone. Kaminsky wasn't much his first couple of years, when he was adjusting to his new big body, but then shazam... And for the pessimists, no I am not predicting that Nunge is going to be an All-American.
It wouldn’t be a totally outlandish prediction if you were (even though there is little basis to make it so far). I predict he at least gets a look from the NBA. He’s got a prototypical modern NBA center’s body, and is definitely athletic enough. The question will be how he can develop skill-wise and mentally, as well as his defensive ability. Hell, Meyers Leonard out of Illinois has carved out a role on the Blazers being a guy who can provide depth at the 5 with an inside-outside game.
What we saw offensively freshman year from Jack was somebody who wasn’t strong or tough enough for D1/Big Ten competition. I suspect that with a more defined role and time to develop, those issues will be nullified in the next couple of years. Will he become as skilled as a Frank Kaminsky in college? Time will tell
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I can't tell you how much I appreciate this post....I feel fortunate to get these observations.
*The comparison to Jacobsen I find interesting....I think he's pretty skilled, strong, and capable. I think Nunge is at least a couple of inches taller? From what little I watched of Jacobsen (mostly the game against the Hawks) I think his 3 pt shooting was pretty good, but I think Nunge (from his freshman year) might be a better outside shooter? Jacobsen is obviously more experienced and seemed to play with a lot of confidence. I did not like his attitude in the least however.
CP84...you give me some hope and thank you again for the inside insight.
Jacobson shot 34.0% from 3 last year on 47 attempts.
Nunge shot 33.3% from 3 his freshman season on 57 attempts.
Healthy JBo equals BIG Champs. Iowa will take advantage of the deeper 3 point line.
The McCaffery Gang will be a dangerous bunch. Add Nunge, CJF, JoeT, Pat and tough guy Pemsl to a quality group from last season and I have every reason to expect a championship.
What happened to fans believing in their team? I won’t budge an inch unless math proves me wrong.
The McCaffery Gang will be a dangerous bunch. Add Nunge, CJF, JoeT, Pat and tough guy Pemsl to a quality group from last season and I have every reason to expect a championship.
What happened to fans believing in their team? I won’t budge an inch unless math proves me wrong.
