Another Oil Crash is coming.

[HawktimusPrime]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-recovery/ar-BBpVdfr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon's forecast is similarly dismissive.

The oil price crash that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of unwanted oil, as producers started cranking out about 2 million barrels a day more than the market supported. Nobody saw it coming, despite the massively expanding oil fields across North America. The question is: How soon could electric vehicles trigger a similar oil glut by reducing demand by the same 2 million barrels?

 

[The Tradition]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-recovery/ar-BBpVdfr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon's forecast is similarly dismissive.

The oil price crash that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of unwanted oil, as producers started cranking out about 2 million barrels a day more than the market supported. Nobody saw it coming, despite the massively expanding oil fields across North America. The question is: How soon could electric vehicles trigger a similar oil glut by reducing demand by the same 2 million barrels?

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

 

[naturalmwa]

This is something that might happen some time after 2040?

 

[Capital1Hawk]

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

Agree if I want 200 miles on a charge I'll buy a scooter. Oil is shot because the ME are asshats. Take the $150 oil when they can then pull a Walmart and drive the price down through competition. F the Saudis and opec.

 

[naturalmwa]

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

Most gas cars can't go that far on a tank.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Agree if I want 200 miles on a charge I'll buy a scooter. Oil is shot because the ME are asshats. Take the $150 oil when they can then pull a Walmart and drive the price down through competition. F the Saudis and opec.

Don't forget Iran as well. They opened up their fields and are now adding to the party. I believe Russia and Saudi agreed to knock down production a bit to help balance it out.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Most gas cars can't go that far on a tank.

False. Plus most gas cars can simply fill up within in minutes. Don't pull out that katana just yet, make sure your opponents at the stance you need for his imbalance to become an advantage.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

This is something that might happen some time after 2040?

Yes, It'll be right around when the next climate change prediction fails, again.

 

[The Tradition]

Most gas cars can't go that far on a tank.

If I can recharge in the same amount of time it takes to fill up a gas tank, then we're talking. If I have to recharge overnight while sleeping the the hotel, then I need at least eight hours of drive time.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

When do you drive 500 miles in a day?

Or two days? Three?

 

[naturalmwa]

False. Plus most gas cars can simply fill up within in minutes. Don't pull out that katana just yet, make sure your opponents at the stance you need for his imbalance to become an advantage.

When are you going to learn? I look up my facts before I spout off. There are very few cars that get over 500 miles to the tank. Most get 300-400, here are a few exceptions.

• Toyota Prius – 12 gallon tank, 50 mpg = 600 miles
• Honda Civic Hybrid – 12 gallon tank, 40 mpg = 480 miles
• Ford Fusion – 17 gallon tank, 36 mpg = 600 miles
• Volkswagen Golf – 14 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 490 miles
• Chevy Cruze – 13 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 455 miles

http://solarchargeddriving.com/2011/05/13/whats-your-gasoline-cars-range/

 

[22*43*51]

The OPEC overproduction strategy was a direct counter-play to Americas attempt to become more independent of OPEC nations and their product.

The overproduction has driven crude prices down to the point where American rigs, derricks and refineries are being idled, or closed. Massive layoff and loss of jobs.

The OPEC nations can still drill, pump, refine and transport cheaper than we can.

They are consolidating the market. Production will slow once our ability to compete has been diminished.

Then prices will rise and we will gladly pay them for their product.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

When are you going to learn? I look up my facts before I spout off. There are very few cars that get over 500 miles to the tank. Most get 300-400.

• Toyota Prius – 12 gallon tank, 50 mpg = 600 miles
• Honda Civic Hybrid – 12 gallon tank, 40 mpg = 480 miles
• Ford Fusion – 17 gallon tank, 36 mpg = 600 miles
• Volkswagen Golf – 14 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 490 miles
• Chevy Cruze – 13 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 455 miles

http://solarchargeddriving.com/2011/05/13/whats-your-gasoline-cars-range/

Ah yes, my bad, I was thinking 200 miles. So you go me there, you go girl.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

When do you drive 500 miles in a day?

Or two days? Three?

Either way he has a point. I would be much quicker to grab one, once all of the stations are available and the drive range is upped. I like the idea of them, I drive a Hybrid. Sucka.

 

[The Tradition]

When do you drive 500 miles in a day?

Or two days? Three?

There are two far-flung areas in my region that require a full day of driving to get there. I have to visit these two areas approximately three times a year, so that's 2 * 2 * 3 = 12 full-day trips per year. Many other areas require 6 or 7 hours of driving round trip.

Charging would need to be fast and as available as gas pumps in order for it to work for me.

 

[thewop]

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

yea, it would still need to by a hybrid I'd think. Ideally one that could charge itself while running on gas.

 

[Herkmeister]

When do you drive 500 miles in a day?

Or two days? Three?

I do it all the time Tar. I'm kind of proud and kind of embarrassed at the same time, but I drove 1,300 miles in one day not long ago. The last 50 were not very safe.

I'm with Trad, until charges are quick or ranges dramatically increased it won't be my primary car. But it would be perfect for my wife.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

I do it all the time Tar. I'm kind of proud and kind of embarrassed at the same time, but I drove 1,300 miles in one day not long ago. The last 50 were not very safe.

I'm with Trad, until charges are quick or ranges dramatically increased it won't be my primary car. But it would be perfect for my wife.

Pic of wife?

 

[naturalmwa]

Some place I heard the model might be simply swapping batteries in your car like you do any other battery powered appliance. You pull into the station, drop your old uncharged battery and plug in a new one and drive out. The station recharges your old battery and gives it to the next car.

 

[BioHawk]

I could see our next car being one of these, provided they are proven reliable. I'd still need a gas car though for long trips, or, as people have mentioned, until they can get the recharge time for a car to less than 30 minutes.

30 minutes might seem like a long time, but if restaurants start adding plug in locations in their parking lots then the car can charge while you are eating. Still, 5 minutes or less would be ideal.

 

[The Tradition]

Some place I heard the model might be simply swapping batteries in your car like you do any other battery powered appliance. You pull into the station, drop your old uncharged battery and plug in a new one and drive out. The station recharges your old battery and gives it to the next car.

This brings up another point: cost. How much will a "quick charge" or a "battery swap" cost? It would need to be equivalent or cheaper than the equivalent amount of mileage attained by gas in order for it to be widely accepted.

How much does it cost to charge your car at home?

 

[Herkmeister]

Pic of wife?

No frontal shots you sick Prime Meister!!!!!!!!!!!! But here you go........

 

[BioHawk]

Some place I heard the model might be simply swapping batteries in your car like you do any other battery powered appliance. You pull into the station, drop your old uncharged battery and plug in a new one and drive out. The station recharges your old battery and gives it to the next car.

I've thought about this as well. As long as it is quick and easy to do this. Although this seems to be a temporary solution at best.

 

[Herkmeister]

Some place I heard the model might be simply swapping batteries in your car like you do any other battery powered appliance. You pull into the station, drop your old uncharged battery and plug in a new one and drive out. The station recharges your old battery and gives it to the next car.

I've read that too. But the idea was so complex I couldn't reduce it to the few words you did.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

No frontal shots you sick Prime Meister!!!!!!!!!!!! But here you go........

Nice back definition.

 

[Herkmeister]

Can't wait to learn the negatives about the battery byproducts.

We'll probably have to dump all of them in a landfill by Flint, Michigan.

 

[BioHawk]

This brings up another point: cost. How much will a "quick charge" or a "battery swap" cost? It would need to be equivalent or cheaper than the equivalent amount of mileage attained by gas in order for it to be widely accepted.

How much does it cost to charge your car at home?

I can't imagine it would cost much more than a tank of gas does. Well, a tank of gas when the price of gas is over $2 a gallon. I think it would be viable at around $10 or less. My main issue is what happens when you get a battery pack that's about dead and can't hold a charge or, worse, somebody abused the last set of batteries and then they explode while you are driving your car. These aren't deal breakers though, those problems can be overcome. It's not like gasoline is the safest substance around either.

 

[Herkmeister]

Nice back definition.

A couple nasty scares on the front side.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...rises-opec/ar-BBpVQ7x?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The Saudis Oil Minister is saying he's prepared to let the price of oil drop to $20 a barrel. Saudi being Saudi.

 

[Jan Itor]

Most gas cars can't go that far on a tank.

But you can pull into a gas station and fill up in a couple of minutes and be on your way. Can we do that with an electric?

 

[unIowa]

No frontal shots you sick Prime Meister!!!!!!!!!!!! But here you go........

Nice granny panties.

 

[naturalmwa]

But you can pull into a gas station and fill up in a couple of minutes and be on your way. Can we do that with an electric?

Unlikely anytime soon if they are only going to be 1% of the vehicles in 2040.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

A couple nasty scares on the front side.

Does she have nice feet? That's a deal breaker or maker with me.

 

[DrVenkman]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...rises-opec/ar-BBpVQ7x?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The Saudis Oil Minister is saying he's prepared to let the price of oil drop to $20 a barrel. Saudi being Saudi.

or lower- he said in Houston yesterday that the marginal price will determine demand. while not surprising, as this has clearly been the Saudis stance since Nov 2014, his discussion yesterday left no doubt that they will not be cutting production. the operating cost curves for various oil producers globally will now come into focus. the middle east wins for the time being.

 

[GlenHawk]

But you can pull into a gas station and fill up in a couple of minutes and be on your way. Can we do that with an electric?

The whole electric car thing seems like a hassle. I'd prefer keep working on emissions and stay with burning old dinosaurs.

 

[SoDakHawk]

I can't imagine it would cost much more than a tank of gas does. Well, a tank of gas when the price of gas is over $2 a gallon. I think it would be viable at around $10 or less. My main issue is what happens when you get a battery pack that's about dead and can't hold a charge or, worse, somebody abused the last set of batteries and then they explode while you are driving your car. These aren't deal breakers though, those problems can be overcome. It's not like gasoline is the safest substance around either.

Now you are getting into the realm of branding the commodity as a product, not just a commodity. Right now most people will just pull up to any gas station because all gas is the same, right? But what if it wasn't? What if there were some stations (call it ABC Gas Co) that sold totally crappy gas that ruined your vehicle but there was another (123 Gas Co) that sold a great gasoline product that was guaranteed to perform perfectly and never cause any damage to your vehicle. Go back and look up the history of John D.Rockefeller and Standard Oil and how he marketed kerosene.

If there was a chain of battery stations nationwide that you could depend on to have you in and out within 5 minutes and exchange your used batteries with perfect batteries for your car every time, guaranteed, that is something that would make the electric car movement take off. It would also be the start of the next great industry.

I think hybrids are the future though. To become energy independent we don't need to go cold turkey on oil, just marginalize it to the point that we don't need it near as much as we do now.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

or lower- he said in Houston yesterday that the marginal price will determine demand. while not surprising, as this has clearly been the Saudis stance since Nov 2014, his discussion yesterday left no doubt that they will not be cutting production. the operating cost curves for various oil producers globally will now come into focus. the middle east wins for the time being.

They're playing a high stakes game here. This is getting a little interesting now. Once you start messing around with another countries economy, particularly ours, there is bound to be some fun in the future. Not the fun kind of fun though.

 

[INXS83]

Yes, It'll be right around when the next climate change prediction fails, again.

Exactly!

 

[Herkmeister]

Nice granny panties.

Well she's a grandma!!!

 

[TexMichFan]

Oil is used for so much more than just gas for the household vehicles that I don't see electric cars making a difference that would cause another oil crash.

Car makers are covering all bases. They are investing to meet possible demand for electric vehicles while at the same time investing in research to get better gas mileage from gasoline powered engines.