Another Oil Crash is coming.

[DrVenkman]

They're playing a high stakes game here. This is getting a little interesting now. Once you start messing around with another countries economy, particularly ours, there is bound to be some fun in the future. Not the fun kind of fun though.

Yes. It is having a huge impact. The FT wrote an interesting article over the past weekend about Sovereign Wealth Funds and how they are pulling funds from all over the globe. the largest SWFs are in China, the Mid East (Qattar, UAE, Saudi), Norway, etc. In 2015 they pulled $45B+ back home, this years estimate is upwards of $400B. I really hope that estimate is way too high because this will continue to wreak havoc with asset prices globally. The big irony is how much pain this oil policy is having on the members of OPEC including the owners of these SWFs. Saudis are making a statement and the US really can only watch OR the biggest producers have to stop producing.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Yes. It is having a huge impact. The FT wrote an interesting article over the past weekend about Sovereign Wealth Funds and how they are pulling funds from all over the globe. the largest SWFs are in China, the Mid East (Qattar, UAE, Saudi), Norway, etc. In 2015 they pulled $45B+ back home, this years estimate is upwards of $400B. I really hope that estimate is way too high because this will continue to wreak havoc with asset prices globally. The big irony is how much pain this oil policy is having on the members of OPEC including the owners of these SWFs. Saudis are making a statement and the US really can only watch OR the biggest producers have to stop producing.

Yikes, that's about all I can say.

 

[Catfish_ Crazy]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-recovery/ar-BBpVdfr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon's forecast is similarly dismissive.

The oil price crash that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of unwanted oil, as producers started cranking out about 2 million barrels a day more than the market supported. Nobody saw it coming, despite the massively expanding oil fields across North America. The question is: How soon could electric vehicles trigger a similar oil glut by reducing demand by the same 2 million barrels?

How will these electric cars handle to cold Iowa winters & handle in the snow. Will they make a 4x4 truck?

 

[HawktimusPrime]

How will these electric cars handle to cold Iowa winters & handle in the snow. Will they make a 4x4 truck?

I'm thinking the high horsepower versions of the electric cars are even further down the way.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

I do it all the time Tar. I'm kind of proud and kind of embarrassed at the same time, but I drove 1,300 miles in one day not long ago. The last 50 were not very safe.

I'm with Trad, until charges are quick or ranges dramatically increased it won't be my primary car. But it would be perfect for my wife.

Your last statement says it all. Nobody said this would work for everybody - I don't need a huge pick-up truck but some people do (not nearly the number who actually own one, of course). But for the VAST majority of people this kind of electric car is absolutely practical.

 

[Eternal Return]

Oil producers in South America, Middle East, and Asia (Russia included) responding to shale oil production. None of the traditional global producers want to lose their market share so they are driving down cost of oil to make it unprofitable for shale oil producers. Smart business strategy (and better for the environment, anyway).

 

[dgordo]

Yes. It is having a huge impact. The FT wrote an interesting article over the past weekend about Sovereign Wealth Funds and how they are pulling funds from all over the globe. the largest SWFs are in China, the Mid East (Qattar, UAE, Saudi), Norway, etc. In 2015 they pulled $45B+ back home, this years estimate is upwards of $400B. I really hope that estimate is way too high because this will continue to wreak havoc with asset prices globally. The big irony is how much pain this oil policy is having on the members of OPEC including the owners of these SWFs. Saudis are making a statement and the US really can only watch OR the biggest producers have to stop producing.

I mentioned this a while back about the amount they have pulled from stocks and hedge funds. Its the biggest factor in the decline in the us markets this year.

 

[linkshero]

Don't all motors still need oil? Don't we still need oil to make things, including batteries?

 

[soybean]

I would need a range of 500 miles at the very least and ubiquitous quick-charging stations before I could ever consider an electric car.

This.

 

[soybean]

Oil is used for so much more than just gas for the household vehicles that I don't see electric cars making a difference that would cause another oil crash.

Car makers are covering all bases. They are investing to meet possible demand for electric vehicles while at the same time investing in research to get better gas mileage from gasoline powered engines.

Over 3/4 of the oil consumed is for vehicle fuel...including jet fuel.

 

[Herkmeister]

Oil producers in South America, Middle East, and Asia (Russia included) responding to shale oil production. None of the traditional global producers want to lose their market share so they are driving down cost of oil to make it unprofitable for shale oil producers. Smart business strategy (and better for the environment, anyway).

So just like Reagan, Trump will again bring Russia to its knees?

 

[Herkmeister]

Over 3/4 of the oil consumed is for vehicle fuel...including jet fuel.

So ag and mining make up what %. That's an interesting stat Soy.

And rail, I forgot that one.

 

[hawkifann]

Most gas cars can't go that far on a tank.

No, but the ability to get a quick charge pretty much anywhere is going to be essential for these vehicles to really hit mainstream.

 

[Capital1Hawk]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...rises-opec/ar-BBpVQ7x?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The Saudis Oil Minister is saying he's prepared to let the price of oil drop to $20 a barrel. Saudi being Saudi.

I'm waiting for Russia to start flexing muscle with OPEC and ME. They budgeted for $50 oil and need $85 oil to work for them so they need to make a move and not let this slide continue.

 

[bhawk24bob]

Your last statement says it all. Nobody said this would work for everybody - I don't need a huge pick-up truck but some people do (not nearly the number who actually own one, of course). But for the VAST majority of people this kind of electric car is absolutely practical.

Of course, the point is getting lost on folks here. 200 miles is more than enough for the overwhelming majority of Americans, anamolies on this board notwithstanding.

Outside of truck drivers, less than 1/10th of 1% of Americans are commuting more than 100 miles each way to work

 

[PerkyForHerky]

Some place I heard the model might be simply swapping batteries in your car like you do any other battery powered appliance. You pull into the station, drop your old uncharged battery and plug in a new one and drive out. The station recharges your old battery and gives it to the next car.

These batteries go bad though and currently have a pretty hefty replacement cost. Won't these Gore cars get expensive when in a couple of top ups you happen to get two batteries that get shot?

 

[naturalmwa]

These batteries go bad though and currently have a pretty hefty replacement cost. Won't these Gore cars get expensive when in a couple of top ups you happen to get two batteries that get shot?

I don't know, I'm not an expert. I'm hoping by 2040 we skip right over electric cars and go to hover cars powered by dark energy.

 

[DrVenkman]

Of course, the point is getting lost on folks here. 200 miles is more than enough for the overwhelming majority of Americans, anamolies on this board notwithstanding.

Outside of truck drivers, less than 1/10th of 1% of Americans are commuting more than 100 miles each way to work

Here is a good point to remind people of the Pickens Plan:

http://www.pickensplan.com/the-plan/

He has been pushing this for a number of years now. It is pie in the sky in this form, but the principle is what a lot on here are discussing. If the US could construct an energy policy/ federal plan to massively increase the use of nat gas and renewables, so much of the costs and dependence on oil could over time truly dissipate.

Let the rest of the world fight for global market share and allow the US to actually benefit from cheaper oil all while decreasing the US demand for crude oil.

 

[dandh]

When are you going to learn? I look up my facts before I spout off. There are very few cars that get over 500 miles to the tank. Most get 300-400.

• Toyota Prius – 12 gallon tank, 50 mpg = 600 miles
• Honda Civic Hybrid – 12 gallon tank, 40 mpg = 480 miles
• Ford Fusion – 17 gallon tank, 36 mpg = 600 miles
• Volkswagen Golf – 14 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 490 miles
• Chevy Cruze – 13 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 455 miles

http://solarchargeddriving.com/2011/05/13/whats-your-gasoline-cars-range/

That's a weird answer, natural. First, you say most cars get 3-400 miles per tank, yet of all the cars you list, the lowest range is 455 miles, and four of the five are almost 500 miles or more per tank. In fact, the average range for the cars you posted is 525 miles.

I don't know if you used average mpg or highway, but if one is talking about 500 miles per day you should look a highway mpg, as its obviously highway miles we're talking, not in-town or mixed driving.

I looked at a few cars and found the following:

• Toyota Camry - 18.5 gal tank - 35mpg - 647.5 mi range
• Kia Optima - 18.5 gal tank - 34mpg - 629 mi range
• BMW 528i - 18.5 gal tank - 34 mpg - 629 mi range
• Chrysler 300 - 18 gal tank - 31mpg - 558 mi range
• Honda Accord - 17.2 gal tank - 37 mpg - 636 mi range
• Honda CRV - 15.3 gal tank - 33mpg - 504.9 mi range
• Honda Civic - 12.4 gal tank - 42 mpg - 520.8 mi range
• Chevy Malibu - 16 gal tank - 34 mpg - 544 mi range
• Hyundai Sonata - 18.5 gal tank - 38mpg - 703 mi range

Looks to me like there are lots of cars that will go 500 miles a day without a fill-up or delay.

 

[naturalmwa]

That's a weird answer, natural. First, you say most cars get 3-400 miles per tank, yet of all the cars you list, the lowest range is 455 miles, and four of the five are almost 500 miles or more per tank. In fact, the average range for the cars you posted is 525 miles.

I don't know if you used average mpg or highway, but if one is talking about 500 miles per day you should look a highway mpg, as its obviously highway miles we're talking, not in-town or mixed driving.

I looked at a few cars and found the following:

• Toyota Camry - 18.5 gal tank - 35mpg - 647.5 mi range
• Kia Optima - 18.5 gal tank - 34mpg - 629 mi range
• BMW 528i - 18.5 gal tank - 34 mpg - 629 mi range
• Chrysler 300 - 18 gal tank - 31mpg - 558 mi range
• Honda Accord - 17.2 gal tank - 37 mpg - 636 mi range
• Honda CRV - 15.3 gal tank - 33mpg - 504.9 mi range
• Honda Civic - 12.4 gal tank - 42 mpg - 520.8 mi range
• Chevy Malibu - 16 gal tank - 34 mpg - 544 mi range
• Hyundai Sonata - 18.5 gal tank - 38mpg - 703 mi range

Looks to me like there are lots of cars that will go 500 miles a day without a fill-up or delay.

I didn't used the linked story.

 

[TexMichFan]

Over 3/4 of the oil consumed is for vehicle fuel...including jet fuel.

The OP was about electric vehicles causing another oil crash.

You are correct that 3/4 is used for fuel but included in that is gasoline, diesel/heat oil, and jet fuel. Overall gasoline is around 45% of the oil used. Now even given the most optimistic levels of electric car usage it is going to be awhile before they impact oil prices. There were 7.7 million cars sold in the United States last year and of that total 116,000 were electric. Electric car sales were actually down from 2014.

As improvements are made and they become a viable option for more drivers then those numbers will pick up but I don't think that will happen soon so the impact on oil will be small.

 

[dandh]

I didn't used the linked story.

Huh?

 

[naturalmwa]

Huh?

It wasn't original research on car mileage. I was using the numbers from the story I linked.

 

[dandh]

It wasn't original research on car mileage. I was using the numbers from the story I linked.

Didn't read that article - just pointing out that the numbers you used don't correspond well to 3-400 miles per tank, as those average 525 miles. And, that there appear to be lots of cars that get well over 500 miles per tank, especially on the highway (per day).

 

[MplsHawk]

• Toyota Camry - 18.5 gal tank - 35mpg - 647.5 mi range

My Camry has that big of a fuel tank? Crap. With the fuel range at 0 miles which I assumed was an empty tank, I can never get more than 14.5 gallons in mine. All those times I needlessly worried about making it to a gas station while I had another 100 miles of range?

 

[theIowaHawk]

If I can recharge in the same amount of time it takes to fill up a gas tank, then we're talking. If I have to recharge overnight while sleeping the the hotel, then I need at least eight hours of drive time.

This. Not daily, but often enough that it wouldn't make economic sense for me.

 

[dandh]

My Camry has that big of a fuel tank? Crap. With the fuel range at 0 miles which I assumed was an empty tank, I can never get more than 14.5 gallons in mine. All those times I needlessly worried about making it to a gas station while I had another 100 miles of range?

Try it - you can call me for a ride if you run out. I'll come get you. I promise.

 

[aflachawk]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-recovery/ar-BBpVdfr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon's forecast is similarly dismissive.

The oil price crash that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of unwanted oil, as producers started cranking out about 2 million barrels a day more than the market supported. Nobody saw it coming, despite the massively expanding oil fields across North America. The question is: How soon could electric vehicles trigger a similar oil glut by reducing demand by the same 2 million barrels?

I wonder how big a percentage of people who drive every day for their jobs would be happy with 200 miles. I bet a fairly high number. By the time this is good however BHO will have destroyed all the coal burning electric plants and it will be much more expensive

 

[naturalmwa]

I wonder how big a percentage of people who drive every day for their jobs would be happy with 200 miles. I bet a fairly high number. By the time this is good however BHO will have destroyed all the coal burning electric plants and it will be much more expensive

The man has less than a year. You must think he's a very hard worker.

 

[Funky Bunch]

This chart took off right after the op

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CLJ16.NYM+Interactive#{"range":"1d","allowChartStacking":true}

 

[CeMar_Clone]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-recovery/ar-BBpVdfr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=DELLDHP

The next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon's forecast is similarly dismissive.

The oil price crash that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of unwanted oil, as producers started cranking out about 2 million barrels a day more than the market supported. Nobody saw it coming, despite the massively expanding oil fields across North America. The question is: How soon could electric vehicles trigger a similar oil glut by reducing demand by the same 2 million barrels?

So we are supposed to get excited about "coal" powered cars? These cars still suck. They need to get at least 400 miles on a charge, they need to be recharged in less than 5 minutes (they are not even close), and they will have to solve the problem of cold on batteries, baterries lose most of their energy when they get cold.

 

[Funky Bunch]

updates?