The United Nations warned Friday that based on current action plans submitted by 191 countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on track to warm by more than 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
The findings come as President Biden gathered the world’s biggest emitters to the White House Friday to try reach an agreement among some of them to cut methane — a potent greenhouse gas — 30 percent by 2030.
The U.N. report offered good and bad news as it synthesized the latest projected emissions by individual countries, as forecast in their “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDC) reports.
So far, 113 parties to the U.N. climate accord, including the European Union’s collective of 27 countries, have submitted 86 new, updated and often more ambitious projections. Together these nations account for about half of total emissions. If they carry out their current plans, they are on track to produce a 12 percent reduction in heat-trapping gases in 2030 compared to 2010.
That’s the good news, said, Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of U.N. Climate Change, in a news conference Friday marking the release of the report.
But taken as a whole, the 191 nations that are parties to the U.N. climate accord would contribute a 16 percent increase in greenhouse gases in 2030 than 2010.
Espinosa called these numbers “sobering.”
“It is not enough, what we have on the table,” she said during the news conference.
“The 16% increase is a huge cause of concern," she said. “It is in sharp contrast with the calls by science for rapid, sustained and large-scale emission reductions to prevent the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, throughout the world.”
In its most recent landmark report in August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5C requires a 45 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, or a 25 percent reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2C.
Many of the biggest emitters, such as China, India and Turkey, have yet to formally commit to a 2030 emissions reduction target. Equally worrying, Brazil and Mexico both put forward weaker emissions targets compared to what they submitted five years ago. Russia said it could emit more in 2030 than it does now.
The disappointing reality — captured in this snapshot of how plans fail to meet goals — comes ahead of the White House meeting Friday and the U.N. General Assembly gathering next week.
President Biden, left, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John F. Kerry at the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in the South Court Auditorium at the White House on Friday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)
Espinosa said she hoped to see more nations submit plans with more ambitious targets before the launch of the U.N. global climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in early November. Japan and South Korea will submit new, more ambitious goals in the coming weeks.
She said there is still time, and said her U.N. group will issue another report synthesizing the commitments before the Glasgow negotiations begin.
U.N. Secretary General, António Guterres, in remarks at the White House, said, “The world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating.”
He warned “there is high risk of failure” at the coming climate summit.
“It is clear that everyone must assume their responsibilities,” he said, stressing that the world’s wealthiest countries must fulfill long-standing pledges to provide $100 billion a year to support developing countries trying to reduce their own emissions and prepare for a warmer world with more droughts and flooding.
The planet has already warmed by over 1 degree Celsius since the dawn of the industrial revolution.
The U.N. synthesis released on Friday, based on the national plans, concluded, “unless actions are taken immediately,” the projected emissions “may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century.”
Alok Sharma, the British government minister who will serve as president of the coming meeting in Glasgow, said in a statement: “This report is clear: ambitious climate action can avoid the most devastating effects of climate change, but only if all nations act together. Those nations which have submitted new and ambitious climate plans are already bending the curve of emissions downwards. But without action from all countries, especially the biggest economies, these efforts risk being in vain.”
The findings come as President Biden gathered the world’s biggest emitters to the White House Friday to try reach an agreement among some of them to cut methane — a potent greenhouse gas — 30 percent by 2030.
The U.N. report offered good and bad news as it synthesized the latest projected emissions by individual countries, as forecast in their “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDC) reports.
So far, 113 parties to the U.N. climate accord, including the European Union’s collective of 27 countries, have submitted 86 new, updated and often more ambitious projections. Together these nations account for about half of total emissions. If they carry out their current plans, they are on track to produce a 12 percent reduction in heat-trapping gases in 2030 compared to 2010.
That’s the good news, said, Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of U.N. Climate Change, in a news conference Friday marking the release of the report.
But taken as a whole, the 191 nations that are parties to the U.N. climate accord would contribute a 16 percent increase in greenhouse gases in 2030 than 2010.
Espinosa called these numbers “sobering.”
“It is not enough, what we have on the table,” she said during the news conference.
“The 16% increase is a huge cause of concern," she said. “It is in sharp contrast with the calls by science for rapid, sustained and large-scale emission reductions to prevent the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, throughout the world.”
In its most recent landmark report in August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5C requires a 45 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, or a 25 percent reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2C.
Many of the biggest emitters, such as China, India and Turkey, have yet to formally commit to a 2030 emissions reduction target. Equally worrying, Brazil and Mexico both put forward weaker emissions targets compared to what they submitted five years ago. Russia said it could emit more in 2030 than it does now.
The disappointing reality — captured in this snapshot of how plans fail to meet goals — comes ahead of the White House meeting Friday and the U.N. General Assembly gathering next week.
President Biden, left, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John F. Kerry at the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in the South Court Auditorium at the White House on Friday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)
Espinosa said she hoped to see more nations submit plans with more ambitious targets before the launch of the U.N. global climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in early November. Japan and South Korea will submit new, more ambitious goals in the coming weeks.
She said there is still time, and said her U.N. group will issue another report synthesizing the commitments before the Glasgow negotiations begin.
U.N. Secretary General, António Guterres, in remarks at the White House, said, “The world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating.”
He warned “there is high risk of failure” at the coming climate summit.
“It is clear that everyone must assume their responsibilities,” he said, stressing that the world’s wealthiest countries must fulfill long-standing pledges to provide $100 billion a year to support developing countries trying to reduce their own emissions and prepare for a warmer world with more droughts and flooding.
The planet has already warmed by over 1 degree Celsius since the dawn of the industrial revolution.
The U.N. synthesis released on Friday, based on the national plans, concluded, “unless actions are taken immediately,” the projected emissions “may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century.”
Alok Sharma, the British government minister who will serve as president of the coming meeting in Glasgow, said in a statement: “This report is clear: ambitious climate action can avoid the most devastating effects of climate change, but only if all nations act together. Those nations which have submitted new and ambitious climate plans are already bending the curve of emissions downwards. But without action from all countries, especially the biggest economies, these efforts risk being in vain.”
