Begala's prediction
- Thread starter seminole97
- Start date
Not as strongly as I think you believe they do.
I think for most he's a means to an end. That's not love. Trump needs to have someone on the ticket who will continue to convince them that he is the means to that end and that their concerns won't be ignored once he wins.
The other problem with getting rid of Pence is that dumping your VP these days is considered an implication that your first and one of your more important "hires" as president was a huge mistake.
Plus it frees up Pence to turn on him if he's unhappy about being replaced. Pence turning on him could convince the evangelicals to go vote for a 3rd party or withhold their votes even more.
Trump has enough people there to tell him that doing something like that is the electorial version of Russian roulette.
Lets be honest, if we had 80 million infected and 3 million dead from Trump Flu, in Trump's world we're still doing great and they are totally on top of this.
I was thinking about this. It would make a lot of sense for Trump. Haley is very popular with a LOT of Trump-skeptical Republicans...votes he could definitely count on vs. Bernie, but maybe not so much vs Biden.
Pence has never really been all that loved by the Trump cultists, and while nobody besides Trump will be, Haley does bring interest from other Republicans.
That said...I just don't see this as a good play for Haley. A big part of her appeal is her ability to support and serve the president and the party without appearing as a total sycophant. Very few have managed...she passes with both Trumpists and the Trump-skeptical. While being VP is obviously a potential stepping stone to President, it isn't nearly as big a leg up as people think. More have failed than succeeded reaching the presidency after VP. There just seems to be way too much risk to throw in with Trump that way, for not nearly enough reward. Everybody that serves Trump gets thrown under the bus eventually which will eliminate her standing with Trumpists, while signing on would damage her standing with Trump-skeptic. She's best to stay clean of it for four years.
But this reasoning doesn't make much sense. In all likelihood, this Corona virus is not going to kill a million people, and will be one more thing that the media overhyped, and will end up being limited by strong response by the health bureaucracies, the private sector, and the behavior of the American people.
And despite that having very little to do with Trump, he will claim unequivocal and personal victory over Corona virus. It's crazy to me that Trump haters just can't keep their dick in their pants before plastering Trump with being responsible for the surely impending apocalypse, without realizing how these things almost always play out and that it will actually elevate him without having to do almost anything.
Pence has never really been all that loved by the Trump cultists, and while nobody besides Trump will be, Haley does bring interest from other Republicans.
That said...I just don't see this as a good play for Haley. A big part of her appeal is her ability to support and serve the president and the party without appearing as a total sycophant. Very few have managed...she passes with both Trumpists and the Trump-skeptical. While being VP is obviously a potential stepping stone to President, it isn't nearly as big a leg up as people think. More have failed than succeeded reaching the presidency after VP. There just seems to be way too much risk to throw in with Trump that way, for not nearly enough reward. Everybody that serves Trump gets thrown under the bus eventually which will eliminate her standing with Trumpists, while signing on would damage her standing with Trump-skeptic. She's best to stay clean of it for four years.
But this reasoning doesn't make much sense. In all likelihood, this Corona virus is not going to kill a million people, and will be one more thing that the media overhyped, and will end up being limited by strong response by the health bureaucracies, the private sector, and the behavior of the American people.
And despite that having very little to do with Trump, he will claim unequivocal and personal victory over Corona virus. It's crazy to me that Trump haters just can't keep their dick in their pants before plastering Trump with being responsible for the surely impending apocalypse, without realizing how these things almost always play out and that it will actually elevate him without having to do almost anything.
I don't think after 4 years of Trump presidency that Haley would legitimize him with the never-Trumpers. I think you are right that Haley can kind of walk in both camps and you are absolutely right that being VP hurts her in the long run. I think you are wrong that it would give Trump any benefit. Maybe she could have legitimized him 4 years ago in 2016. But 4 years of de-legitimizing himself with that group isn't going to be undone by any person in that VP slot, no matter how respected.
Also you are right that the VP isn't much of a leg up. I think there are mutiple reasons for VP's failures to win elections as presidents. One of which is that they are usually selected so they won't upstage the guy they are running with. (So they tend to be less charismatic and boring.)
The other reason which I think you sort of allude to a bit here is the VP doesn't have a specific job. So they don't get in the news much and almost never get in the news independently of the POTUS. A secretary of state gets much more "independent" news than a VP.
The generally speaking VP's have to be working with an exceptionally popular POTUS or ascend to the presidency via death to win an election themselves. In the first case they ride the popularity of the POTUS. In the 2nd they ride sympathy support.
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I will grant you Haley is no Jim Jordan or Marsha Blackburn.
But she’s a Trump supporter, no question. She interjected herself i to the impeachment debate on Trump’s side when she could’ve kept quiet. Damaged goods.
I always get a chuckle out of the deployment of the Ivankabot. She is so polished and perfect no real working mom buys her BS. She was born rich, has had a nose job and a big rack installed, and is paper thin on specifics. She comes out, does a quarter turn to give the camera her best angle, then talks about how Daddy lives working moms. Nobody loves working moms more than Daddy. Well, in one way that is true if you believe all the talk about banging married women at Mar A Lago over the years.
MAGA women fall for the spectacle, but a mom that works for a living and didn’t have a Daddy with a stuffed Rolodex and millions of dollars for her to inherit doesn’t relate to Ivanka.
All it requires is people to turn off their brains for a little bit and focus just on feelings.
Lets remember that Bernie Bros have failed to notice that since Bernie made millions on his book he's gone from being against "the millionares and the billionares" to just "the billionares".
This effect is not at all limited to the right.
LOL...everything Trump touches - dies. Haley couldn't even stomach him to serve at the UN. You think she'll sign up for four years tied to Trump's hip as VP?
Now, she might do it with hopes that Trump cashes his chips early.
Now, she might do it with hopes that Trump cashes his chips early.
I’d rather see your explanation for how the money disappears from the economy after the stock is bought back.
I'm not going to go out on such a limb as Begala, but this jives with what I said the day this task was given to Pence...
Trump never gives underlings roles that allow them to shine......all "shining" must eminate from Trump. If not....you're gone.......I have seen this asshole in action before.
To whom? Liberals/Democrats and the Trump triggered aren't voting for Nikki Haley anyway, or anyone with an R next to their name. She will absolutely be painted with Trump by the Democrats. But so will every single Republican.
Nikki Haley is in a good spot because she supported the Republican presidency, without debasing herself over it. She has disagreed with Trump publicly, and she has defended him publicly. There isn't any Republican that opposed Trump on every front, or they wouldn't be a Republican.
Nikki Haley is very popular among the National Review/intellectual/philosophical conservative crowd that has spent nearly as much time criticizing Trump as they have Democrats. None of them consider her tainted by her association with Trump, and they admire how she handled her appointment. She isn't damaged goods with anyone who would vote for her anyway.
Who cares if she's damaged goods to her enemies? Believe me, if it was Romney, he'd be painted as a Trump lackey by Democrats for supporting most of Trump's legislation.
As well as being a competent person. It's a long way between now and then, but I'm hopeful that she can live up to the high expectations. There's been plenty of folks tabbed "the heir apparent" (John Edwards anyone?) only to crash and burn.
I didn't say it disappears. But it's not going to expansion or employee wages. The WH claimed the trickle down would help wage earners.
It didn't. It created bonuses for CEOs.
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