Best case scenario at Nationals?

[Knight563]

What's Iowa best case scenario for nationals...

5 in the finals on Saturday night. Long shot, wishful thinking and many prayers but wouldn't be completely shocked about it either.

25 National Champ
33 National Champ
49, 57 & 84 Runner ups

Carton goes 2-2 and 65 & 97 gets a wild card and goes 1-2?

 

[ih8iast8]

What a difference Stoll would have made. Best case scenario there is 6 in finals. It really sucks that he got hurt.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

I think 141 is just enough of a shit show that Carton could go 0-2 BBQ or AA. Look at big tens. 2 seed got 8th while getting pinned 3 times. 7 seed made the finals and Carton majored him earlier in the year. It will be wild!

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

Sadly, I think Topher is a lot more likely to go 0-2 than to AA. Hoping he wins a couple.

Five in the finals really wouldn't shock me. This group has potential to do quite a bit better at Nationals than they did at Big Tens because our 5 big guns have legit potential to make the NCAA finals, whereas some years we have guys who may make the Big Ten finals but struggle with other top guys out of conference at Nationals.

Probably looking at 3rd place nationally at best, in any case. We'll expect less and hope for more.

 

[dmlawdad]

Don't forget 174. AA last year at the same weight. Meyer could get on a roll and AA again.

 

[Knight563]

Completely forgot Meyer ... 5-8th for the big fella.

 

[pablow]

Completely forgot Meyer ... 5-8th for the big fella.

Meyer is a nightmare draw - he can beat anyone.

 

[TarpHawk]

My NCAA goals for Iowa:

• 90+ team points (we haven't scored >84 points since 2012)
• 1+ champ
• 3+ finalists
• Top 3 team finish

Stats (trigger warning--may be upsetting; please seek safe space):

• Last Iowa champ: 2014 (Ramos)
• Last Iowa 2x champ: 2012 (McDonough)
• Last Iowa 3x champ: 1998 (Joe Williams)
• # team titles under Zalesky: 3 (9 seasons)
• # team titles under Brands: 3 (10 seasons)
• # team titles in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 0
• # team titles in Brands' past 5 seasons: 0
• # champs under Zalesky: 10
• # champs under Brands: 9
• # champs in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 2
• # champs in Brands' past 5 seasons: 3
• # 2-time champs under Zalesky: 1
• # 2-time champs under Brands: 3
• # 3x champs under Zalesky: 0
• # 3x champs under Brands: 0
• # seasons Zalesky scored 100+ points: 4
• # seasons Brands has scored 100+ points: 3
• Avg team points under Zalesky: 91.3
• Avg team points under Brands: 91.6
• Avg NCAA place under Zalesky: 3.3
• Avg NCAA place under Brands: 3.2

While reiterating that I think we're finally on the right path again, Brands has some work to do if he wants to differentiate his legacy from Zalesky's. This would be a good year to over-perform, as next year isn't going to help his stats.

 

[Atdawn123]

What day do brackets come out? I thought last year it was the Wednesday following BIGs.

 

[pablow]

In fairness to Brands, Zalesky inherited six national champs from Gable - McGinness, Williams, Ironside, Fullhart, Doug Schwab, and Juergens. And, Gable was the guy that got T.J. Williams to Iowa - so could argue seven

I'll Zalesky gets credit for Mocco, Cliff Moore, and Mark Perry and 1/2 for T.J.

I lost faith in Zalesky when I watched Schwab go straight downhill.

 

[Kranepool2]

There will be competition at Nationals. All 10 Okie State wrestlers made it to big 12 Finals
Matches, winning 8 of them. Oklahoma will be another. I dont see 5 or 6 at all, 2-4, imo.
Also,looks like 6 Cornell Univ. wrestlers made it to Nationals, w/ the possibility of a 7th.
They won their 11th Tourny in a row, this weekend.

 

[just_somebody]

My NCAA goals for Iowa:

• 90+ team points (we haven't scored >84 points since 2012)
• 1+ champ
• 3+ finalists
• Top 3 team finish

Stats (trigger warning--may be upsetting; please seek safe space):

• Last Iowa champ: 2014 (Ramos)
• Last Iowa 2x champ: 2012 (McDonough)
• Last Iowa 3x champ: 1998 (Joe Williams)
• # team titles under Zalesky: 3 (9 seasons)
• # team titles under Brands: 3 (10 seasons)
• # team titles in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 0
• # team titles in Brands' past 5 seasons: 0
• # champs under Zalesky: 10
• # champs under Brands: 9
• # champs in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 2
• # champs in Brands' past 5 seasons: 3
• # 2-time champs under Zalesky: 1
• # 2-time champs under Brands: 3
• # 3x champs under Zalesky: 0
• # 3x champs under Brands: 0
• # seasons Zalesky scored 100+ points: 4
• # seasons Brands has scored 100+ points: 3
• Avg team points under Zalesky: 91.3
• Avg team points under Brands: 91.6
• Avg NCAA place under Zalesky: 3.3
• Avg NCAA place under Brands: 3.2

While reiterating that I think we're finally on the right path again, Brands has some work to do if he wants to differentiate his legacy from Zalesky's. This would be a good year to over-perform, as next year isn't going to help his stats.

This is a great post. The only caveat is that one could (unfortunately) argue this should be broken out into BC and AC (before Carl went to PSU and after). Like most sensible fans are saying, if in 4 years those numbers don't look brighter for the Brands era, then there should be some disappointment, but right now there should be nothing but cautious optimism

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

It does need to be pointed out that PSU and tOSU weren't nearly the forces they are now when Jim was head coach. I'd say there's a good hit more parity now than back then, too, with programs like VT, NC State, and others pushing the top tier programs a bit. So it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison, but the stats are a bit sobering, nonetheless.

We also have to keep in mind that recruiting at Iowa is on a definite upward trajectory, and the overall attitude around Iowa wrestling is still much better than in year 9 of the Zaleskt era. We were missing out on top Iowa recruits left and right, our finishes at Big Tens and Nationals were really sinking, and attendance at home meets was suffering. None of those things is really happening now. Plus, there's a ton of anticipation for guys like Lee, Teasdale, Murin, and Warner to join the fray, with recruiting improving rather than declining. So the stats, while disconcerting, don't tell the whole story.

 

[1stplacehawk]

It does need to be pointed out that PSU and tOSU weren't nearly the forces they are now when Jim was head coach. I'd say there's a good hit more parity now than back then, too, with programs like VT, NC State, and others pushing the top tier programs a bit. So it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison, but the stats are a bit sobering, nonetheless.

We also have to keep in mind that recruiting at Iowa is on a definite upward trajectory, and the overall attitude around Iowa wrestling is still much better than in year 9 of the Zaleskt era. We were missing out on top Iowa recruits left and right, our finishes at Big Tens and Nationals were really sinking, and attendance at home meets was suffering. None of those things is really happening now. Plus, there's a ton of anticipation for guys like Lee, Teasdale, Murin, and Warner to join the fray, with recruiting improving rather than declining. So the stats, while disconcerting, don't tell the whole story.

Iowa high school wrestling is nowhere near what it was during the Zalesky years. Makes it harder for the Brands as well

 

[pennsylvaniahawkeye]

Sorensen will probably be seeded 4 or 5, in which case he has Retherford in the semis, which is probably a 3rd place best-case scenario barring a miracle.

 

[CradleKing26]

Sorensen will probably be seeded 4 or 5, in which case he has Retherford in the semis, which is probably a 3rd place best-case scenario barring a miracle.

I think 4 in the finals is best case scenario too, and in my mind a very likely scenario.

 

[championhawk]

What's Iowa best case scenario for nationals...

5 in the finals on Saturday night. Long shot, wishful thinking and many prayers but wouldn't be completely shocked about it either.

25 National Champ
33 National Champ
49, 57 & 84 Runner ups

Carton goes 2-2 and 65 & 97 gets a wild card and goes 1-2?

Best case is 5 national champs. Obviously not likely, but all 5 are capable of winning it all. The good news is we have a chance for Brooks to be healthy for the first time at nationals.

 

[championhawk]

My NCAA goals for Iowa:

• 90+ team points (we haven't scored >84 points since 2012)
• 1+ champ
• 3+ finalists
• Top 3 team finish

Stats (trigger warning--may be upsetting; please seek safe space):

• Last Iowa champ: 2014 (Ramos)
• Last Iowa 2x champ: 2012 (McDonough)
• Last Iowa 3x champ: 1998 (Joe Williams)
• # team titles under Zalesky: 3 (9 seasons)
• # team titles under Brands: 3 (10 seasons)
• # team titles in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 0
• # team titles in Brands' past 5 seasons: 0
• # champs under Zalesky: 10
• # champs under Brands: 9
• # champs in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 2
• # champs in Brands' past 5 seasons: 3
• # 2-time champs under Zalesky: 1
• # 2-time champs under Brands: 3
• # 3x champs under Zalesky: 0
• # 3x champs under Brands: 0
• # seasons Zalesky scored 100+ points: 4
• # seasons Brands has scored 100+ points: 3
• Avg team points under Zalesky: 91.3
• Avg team points under Brands: 91.6
• Avg NCAA place under Zalesky: 3.3
• Avg NCAA place under Brands: 3.2

While reiterating that I think we're finally on the right path again, Brands has some work to do if he wants to differentiate his legacy from Zalesky's. This would be a good year to over-perform, as next year isn't going to help his stats.

That's a fair post with a lot of factual information. It leaves out the state of Iowa high school wrestling and PSU/OSU upswing. I would be curious what would your preseason expectations have been if you knew Clark and Stoll would be out with injuries? I doubt you would have expected 3 finalists and a top 3 finish.
If you told me in Sept that Clark and Stoll would be hurt I would have hoped for top 5 and predicted 2-3 finalists. Early in the season folks said we can't have holes in the lineup. I said our studs need to be studs. We lost one stud so our 5 other studs need to really kick ass. Holes in the lineup don't matter if you have 6 studs.

 

[HoundedHawk]

My NCAA goals for Iowa:

• 90+ team points (we haven't scored >84 points since 2012)
• 1+ champ
• 3+ finalists
• Top 3 team finish

Stats (trigger warning--may be upsetting; please seek safe space):

• Last Iowa champ: 2014 (Ramos)
• Last Iowa 2x champ: 2012 (McDonough)
• Last Iowa 3x champ: 1998 (Joe Williams)
• # team titles under Zalesky: 3 (9 seasons)
• # team titles under Brands: 3 (10 seasons)
• # team titles in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 0
• # team titles in Brands' past 5 seasons: 0
• # champs under Zalesky: 10
• # champs under Brands: 9
• # champs in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 2
• # champs in Brands' past 5 seasons: 3
• # 2-time champs under Zalesky: 1
• # 2-time champs under Brands: 3
• # 3x champs under Zalesky: 0
• # 3x champs under Brands: 0
• # seasons Zalesky scored 100+ points: 4
• # seasons Brands has scored 100+ points: 3
• Avg team points under Zalesky: 91.3
• Avg team points under Brands: 91.6
• Avg NCAA place under Zalesky: 3.3
• Avg NCAA place under Brands: 3.2

While reiterating that I think we're finally on the right path again, Brands has some work to do if he wants to differentiate his legacy from Zalesky's. This would be a good year to over-perform, as next year isn't going to help his stats.

Zalesky had Gable momentum. Brands had Zalesky braking.

 

[pumpdog20]

Just don't get beat by VT. That's a team that's going to pose trouble for Iowa to be in the top 3.

I would have liked our chances better if Carton didn't lay an egg this past weekend. I thought he had a decent chance to AA the way he was wrestling. Getting 9th in a weight class where the 2nd seed got pinned 3 times, yeah not happening.

 

[DonHawkeye]

Here is a very optimistic but not totally crazy scenario.

125 - Champ (24 Points)
133 - Champ (24 Points)
141 - 8th (6 points)
149 - 2/3 (16 Points)
157 - 2nd (17 Points)
165 - 2-2 (2 Points)
174 - 8th (6 Points)
184 - 2nd (18 Points)
197 -
HWT -

113 Total

Problem is I have done a realistic, but Iowa biased, PSU predictions and they are still beating us.

125 - 0-2
133 -
141 - 0-2
149 - Champ (26 Points)
157 - Champ (26 Points)
165 - 4th (14 Points)
174 - 4th (14 Points)
184 - 3rd (17 Points)
197 - 2-2 (2 Points)
HWT - 3rd ( 17 Points)

116 Total

A injury could be the difference.

 

[Sandor45]

We're not winning a team title, but we are definitely poised to play spoiler to a tOSU, OSU, or PSU depending on the seeding.
My gut tells me the Hawkeyes will be dangerous down in St Louie

 

[DonHawkeye]

We're not winning a team title, but we are definitely poised to play spoiler to a tOSU, OSU, or PSU depending on the seeding.
My gut tells me the Hawkeyes will be dangerous down in St Louie

If we can get 105-110 points, which is wishful thinking but not crazy, that gives us a chance if the other guys beat each other up.

That being said if PSU or Okie State get on a roll they have the ability to throw up a big number 130+. OSU & Iowa are gonna need a great showing and a lot of attrition to have a shot.

 

[Feet To Back]

125- G-Money pins his way through. Hopefully he avoids Lizak. I hate to say it but if Lizak wasn't sick he probably techs G in the dual. He is my only worry.

133- C.C. is clearly the class of this weight. I know Tomasello beat him yesterday..But C.C. gets it when it matters. Probably majors him.

141- Topher is rd of 12 for sure. I'm predicting 6th.

149- Brando gets a little redemption tour. I think he beats Lugo, Micah, Collica and Zain. Thomsen from UNI scares me though. We havnt seen him this year.

157- Kim Dog should beat everybody as long as Berger is on other side. I just don't think Kim gets Berger again..Please don't crucify me.

165- Gunther..not much

174- Meyer takes 3rd. When is the last time he's had 2 bad tournaments in a row? I like how Hall ducked him this weekend by staying in the winners bracket.

184- Sambo rolls everybody. He steam rolled through Big10s. I expect the same on the big stage.

197- Cash Money is a year away.

285- Holloway is a little farther away.

 

[Sandor45]

If we can get 105-110 points, which is wishful thinking but not crazy, that gives us a chance if the other guys beat each other up.

That being said if PSU or Okie State get on a roll they have the ability to throw up a big number 130+. OSU & Iowa are gonna need a great showing and a lot of attrition to have a shot.

Yup.
I don't see OSU winning it at all. They don't have a big gun like tosu or psu do.
They legit could be the next team to AA their entire team like Minny did back than. Minny won the title like that, so I guess it's possible that OSU could win a title without a single NC?
Still think going in, psu is the favorite (that sounds crazy considering Suriano and Cortez situation) tOSU is 2nd followed by OK St.

This would be the only realistic way for Iowa to win.
25 - Champ
33- Champ
41- Low AA
49 - Champ
57 - 2nd
65 - 1-2
74 - Mid AA
84 - Champ
97 - 1-2

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

Yup.
I don't see OSU winning it at all. They don't have a big gun like tosu or psu do.
They legit could be the next team to AA their entire team like Minny did back than. Minny won the title like that, so I guess it's possible that OSU could win a title without a single NC?
Still think going in, psu is the favorite (that sounds crazy considering Suriano and Cortez situation) tOSU is 2nd followed by OK St.

This would be the only realistic way for Iowa to win.
25 - Champ
33- Champ
41- Low AA
49 - Champ
57 - 2nd
65 - 1-2
74 - Mid AA
84 - Champ
97 - 1-2

Probably about the only way Iowa could win, but not sure how realistic it is.

 

[chuck285]

Don't forget 174. AA last year at the same weight. Meyer could get on a roll and AA again.

Realistically he has a better chance of 1-2 than AA. I would bet on the first if money was involved.

 

[chuck285]

Yup.
I don't see OSU winning it at all. They don't have a big gun like tosu or psu do.
They legit could be the next team to AA their entire team like Minny did back than. Minny won the title like that, so I guess it's possible that OSU could win a title without a single NC?
Still think going in, psu is the favorite (that sounds crazy considering Suriano and Cortez situation) tOSU is 2nd followed by OK St.

This would be the only realistic way for Iowa to win.
25 - Champ
33- Champ
41- Low AA
49 - Champ
57 - 2nd
65 - 1-2
74 - Mid AA
84 - Champ
97 - 1-2

You might as well place all of them as winning each of their weight classes. It's nice to be optimistic but this is overboard! Spend your money on a lotto ticket. Probably your odds would be the same. No, the lotto is more likely

 

[bphawkeye_Rivals]

Sorensen will probably be seeded 4 or 5, in which case he has Retherford in the semis, which is probably a 3rd place best-case scenario barring a miracle.

3rd place guys can get more team points than 2nd place guys more than you might know.

 

[Grip220]

125- G-Money pins his way through. Hopefully he avoids Lizak. I hate to say it but if Lizak wasn't sick he probably techs G in the dual. He is my only worry.

133- C.C. is clearly the class of this weight. I know Tomasello beat him yesterday..But C.C. gets it when it matters. Probably majors him.

141- Topher is rd of 12 for sure. I'm predicting 6th.

149- Brando gets a little redemption tour. I think he beats Lugo, Micah, Collica and Zain. Thomsen from UNI scares me though. We havnt seen him this year.

157- Kim Dog should beat everybody as long as Berger is on other side. I just don't think Kim gets Berger again..Please don't crucify me.

165- Gunther..not much

174- Meyer takes 3rd. When is the last time he's had 2 bad tournaments in a row? I like how Hall ducked him this weekend by staying in the winners bracket.

184- Sambo rolls everybody. He steam rolled through Big10s. I expect the same on the big stage.

197- Cash Money is a year away.

285- Holloway is a little farther away.

Am I following this correctly you think Lisak would have teched Gman , you think Kemdog will have more of a problem with Berger than Nolf and you think Thompsen scares you but not Zain?

 

[MSU158]

3rd place guys can get more team points than 2nd place guys more than you might know.

Sadly, Sorenson does not wrestle the style to make that happen. You get 2 less placement points for 3rd instead of 2nd and advancement points are cut in half. But, you have the possibility of wrestling 2 more matches depending on what round you lost. Getting big bonus in these matches would be crucial. He would have to turn it up to a level we have yet to see to out score a 2nd place finish.

 

[Exo]

125- G-Money pins his way through. Hopefully he avoids Lizak. I hate to say it but if Lizak wasn't sick he probably techs G in the dual. He is my only worry.

133- C.C. is clearly the class of this weight. I know Tomasello beat him yesterday..But C.C. gets it when it matters. Probably majors him.

141- Topher is rd of 12 for sure. I'm predicting 6th.

149- Brando gets a little redemption tour. I think he beats Lugo, Micah, Collica and Zain. Thomsen from UNI scares me though. We havnt seen him this year.

157- Kim Dog should beat everybody as long as Berger is on other side. I just don't think Kim gets Berger again..Please don't crucify me.

165- Gunther..not much

174- Meyer takes 3rd. When is the last time he's had 2 bad tournaments in a row? I like how Hall ducked him this weekend by staying in the winners bracket.

184- Sambo rolls everybody. He steam rolled through Big10s. I expect the same on the big stage.

197- Cash Money is a year away.

285- Holloway is a little farther away.

LOLz. Good sh*t

 

[DonHawkeye]

Realistically he has a better chance of 1-2 than AA. I would bet on the first if money was involved.

Based on what?

 

[Sandor45]

You might as well place all of them as winning each of their weight classes. It's nice to be optimistic but this is overboard! Spend your money on a lotto ticket. Probably your odds would be the same. No, the lotto is more likely

The title of the thread is "best case scenario"
That's what that is.
I truly believe that each of those best case scenario placements would be the realistic ceiling for each of our guys.

25-Gilman is clear #1
33-Clark was 1/2 second from going OT with tomatoe
41-Carton beat the BIGs runner up and 3rd placer

49-Sorenson can take out Retherford. Believe me. He has the one ace in the hole 99% of Retherfords opponents don't have; he can get out from bottom consistently. Sorenson will be very dangerous at 49. Won't lose to Lugo, Micah, or Collica again.
57- Nobody is beating Nolf. Kemerer is the clear 2

65- Gunther just doesn't have it to go anywhere at the big dance. He may be lucky to get one win by a close 1 point decision. The kid's great for dual meets cause it's hard scoring on him, but tourney wise, he's a huge liability.

74- Meyer can beat almost half the guys ranked above him. It's not unprecedented stuff here. It's proven he can beat the projected mid AA guys. It depends which Meyer shows up.

84- Brooks can beat Dean or Nickal. I feel like for the first time in his post college wrestling career, he is wrestling healthy. He got caught against Nickal, that won't happen again. Nickal will have to go the full 7 minutes to beat Brooks, and I favor Brooks the longer that match goes. Good on Nickal for pinning a bunch of his guys early in his matches, but the lack of full 7 minute battles throughout the season might iill prepare him for full 7 minute wars.

97- Wilcke is a young kid who is in the wrong weight class. He has the athleticism to take one win, but that is all.

I think these are totally realstic placements for our guys. Now, the odds of them all reaching their peak ceiling in one tourney is very much a stretch, yes.

 

[Jackhawk87]

Sadly, Sorenson does not wrestle the style to make that happen. You get 2 less placement points for 3rd instead of 2nd and advancement points are cut in half. But, you have the possibility of wrestling 2 more matches depending on what round you lost. Getting big bonus in these matches would be crucial. He would have to turn it up to a level we have yet to see to out score a 2nd place finish.

FYI, I think BS outscored Jordan this weekend.

 

[wasdt21]

correct on all counts sandor, the key is best case, not go bet the farm that this is how it is going to be.

 

[1stplacehawk]

My NCAA goals for Iowa:

• 90+ team points (we haven't scored >84 points since 2012)
• 1+ champ
• 3+ finalists
• Top 3 team finish

Stats (trigger warning--may be upsetting; please seek safe space):

• Last Iowa champ: 2014 (Ramos)
• Last Iowa 2x champ: 2012 (McDonough)
• Last Iowa 3x champ: 1998 (Joe Williams)
• # team titles under Zalesky: 3 (9 seasons)
• # team titles under Brands: 3 (10 seasons)
• # team titles in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 0
• # team titles in Brands' past 5 seasons: 0
• # champs under Zalesky: 10
• # champs under Brands: 9
• # champs in Zalesky's final 5 seasons: 2
• # champs in Brands' past 5 seasons: 3
• # 2-time champs under Zalesky: 1
• # 2-time champs under Brands: 3
• # 3x champs under Zalesky: 0
• # 3x champs under Brands: 0
• # seasons Zalesky scored 100+ points: 4
• # seasons Brands has scored 100+ points: 3
• Avg team points under Zalesky: 91.3
• Avg team points under Brands: 91.6
• Avg NCAA place under Zalesky: 3.3
• Avg NCAA place under Brands: 3.2

While reiterating that I think we're finally on the right path again, Brands has some work to do if he wants to differentiate his legacy from Zalesky's. This would be a good year to over-perform, as next year isn't going to help his stats.

We can definitely get to 90 points, but that means we have no room for error from our big 5. If just one of those guys lays an egg, we could easily be in that 75-80 area. If absolutely everything goes right, I could see us touching 100

 

[CumberlandHawk]

Iowa high school wrestling is nowhere near what it was during the Zalesky years. Makes it harder for the Brands as well

Something else to think about is that Iowa and Iowa St. were top 5 programs and at times UNI was top 10. All three were able to pull kids out of Iowa and win. There is no way that would happen right now. I dont think it is that Iowa has regressed, only that other areas that are more populous have gotten better. Brands has finally come to the understanding he has to recruit out farther and find some of those already developed kids. Not many kids these days are developing in someones basement they are realizing talent and going to elite clubs and getting superior coaching. You either recruit those clubs or fall behind. Thankfully we are trending up now.

 

[MSU158]

FYI, I think BS outscored Jordan this weekend.

As great as that accomplishment is, majoring theobold in the consi semis and pinning Zac Hall for 3rd is vastly different than doing it to Collica, Jordan or Mayes of which two of them would be his likely opponents in those matches at NCAAs

 

[chuck285]

The title of the thread is "best case scenario"
That's what that is.
I truly believe that each of those best case scenario placements would be the realistic ceiling for each of our guys.

25-Gilman is clear #1
33-Clark was 1/2 second from going OT with tomatoe
41-Carton beat the BIGs runner up and 3rd placer

49-Sorenson can take out Retherford. Believe me. He has the one ace in the hole 99% of Retherfords opponents don't have; he can get out from bottom consistently. Sorenson will be very dangerous at 49. Won't lose to Lugo, Micah, or Collica again.
57- Nobody is beating Nolf. Kemerer is the clear 2

65- Gunther just doesn't have it to go anywhere at the big dance. He may be lucky to get one win by a close 1 point decision. The kid's great for dual meets cause it's hard scoring on him, but tourney wise, he's a huge liability.

74- Meyer can beat almost half the guys ranked above him. It's not unprecedented stuff here. It's proven he can beat the projected mid AA guys. It depends which Meyer shows up.

84- Brooks can beat Dean or Nickal. I feel like for the first time in his post college wrestling career, he is wrestling healthy. He got caught against Nickal, that won't happen again. Nickal will have to go the full 7 minutes to beat Brooks, and I favor Brooks the longer that match goes. Good on Nickal for pinning a bunch of his guys early in his matches, but the lack of full 7 minute battles throughout the season might iill prepare him for full 7 minute wars.

97- Wilcke is a young kid who is in the wrong weight class. He has the athleticism to take one win, but that is all.

I think these are totally realstic placements for our guys. Now, the odds of them all reaching their peak ceiling in one tourney is very much a stretch, yes.

"Best case scenario" I'd love to make a $$ if you really think 97 can win a match. Any one of our weight "can" beat the #1 in their weight class but if you had to bet your $$$ on each match you'd be a lot poorer in two weeks. Just hasseling you a little.