Big 12 Analytics

[blackandgoldrainbows]

Not a huge analytic guy, but the Big 12 is through the roof. At this point any team can lose to the bottom team and not even be affected in the rankings. How is this possible? Quickly looking at the OOC for the teams and comparing to other larger conference games.
Kansas has a good OOC. But the rest don't scream that any had great OOC showing.

Texas: Good W: Gonzaga, Creighton L: Illinois L Tennessee

ISU: Good W: St Johns, UNC L: Iowa, Uconn, Missouri

KSU Good W: Florida maybe (13-10) L:Butler

Baylor Good W: UCLA, Gonzaga, Arkansas L: Marquette, Virginia

TCU Good W: Iowa, Utah, Providence L: Miss St, Bad loss NW St.

Okie St Good W: None L: Va Tech, South Ill, Uconn, UCF

WVU Good W: Auburn Lurdue, Xavier

Okie Good W: Bama, Seton Hall Bad Loss Sam Houston St, Nova

Tech Good W: None L: OSU, Creighton

 

[Iafootballfan]

The Big 12 has the best non-conference record and a winning record vs every P6 conference again this year. By the time conference play started in January every team had moved within the top 60 of KenPom, rendering most internal losses pretty much meaningless.

 

[HawkLogic]

The Big 12 has the best non-conference record and a winning record vs every P6 conference again this year. By the time conference play started in January every team had moved within the top 60 of KenPom, rendering most internal losses pretty much meaningless.

sounds like the B1G a couple years back...best conference in nation and then a face plant in ncaa tourney.

 

[HerkyFan]

Clown fans should talk about this where people care, like on a clown board.

 

[CeMar_Clone]

sounds like the B1G a couple years back...best conference in nation and then a face plant in ncaa tourney.

Looking at TeamRanking.com, the Big 12 was #1 in 2013,2014,2015,2017,2018,2020,2021 and 2022. They were 2nd in 2019 to the Big East, and 2nd to the ACC in 2016. Last time the Big 10 was ranked 1 was 10 years ago in 2012. I believe KenPom has similar rankings. I believe that the Big 12 will get 8 Teams into the dance, which is 80%, and one team that will be left out, just destroyed a #1 seed, Alabama. By Net rankings, I believe the top 8 in the Big 12 are ranked ahead of Iowa right now.

And another #1 seed is joining the Big 12 in July, Houston.

 

[blackandgoldrainbows]

Looking at TeamRanking.com, the Big 12 was #1 in 2013,2014,2015,2017,2018,2020,2021 and 2022. They were 2nd in 2019 to the Big East, and 2nd to the ACC in 2016. Last time the Big 10 was ranked 1 was 10 years ago in 2012. I believe KenPom has similar rankings. I believe that the Big 12 will get 8 Teams into the dance, which is 80%, and one team that will be left out, just destroyed a #1 seed, Alabama. By Net rankings, I believe the top 8 in the Big 12 are ranked ahead of Iowa right now.

And another #1 seed is joining the Big 12 in July, Houston.

Since 2016, ISU is 4-8 against the Big Ten, while Iowa is 6-4 against the Big 12, but great that the rest of your conference has helped you randomly feel better yourself.

 

[HerkyFan]

Since 2016, ISU is 4-8 against the Big Ten, while Iowa is 6-4 against the Big 12, but great that the rest of your conference has helped you randomly feel better yourself.

CeMar will go on and on and on and on that those stats don’t count. Just how clown fans roll.

 

[WadeLookingbill]

Not a huge analytic guy, but the Big 12 is through the roof. At this point any team can lose to the bottom team and not even be affected in the rankings. How is this possible? Quickly looking at the OOC for the teams and comparing to other larger conference games.
Kansas has a good OOC. But the rest don't scream that any had great OOC showing.

Texas: Good W: Gonzaga, Creighton L: Illinois L Tennessee

ISU: Good W: St Johns, UNC L: Iowa, Uconn, Missouri

KSU Good W: Florida maybe (13-10) L:Butler

Baylor Good W: UCLA, Gonzaga, Arkansas L: Marquette, Virginia

TCU Good W: Iowa, Utah, Providence L: Miss St, Bad loss NW St.

Okie St Good W: None L: Va Tech, South Ill, Uconn, UCF

WVU Good W: Auburn Lurdue, Xavier

Okie Good W: Bama, Seton Hall Bad Loss Sam Houston St, Nova

Tech Good W: None L: OSU, Creighton

Agreed most just have decent ooc resumes at best. The love for KState particularly confuses me.
The teams will all have favorable seeds so they should be set up for success but who knows in this wide open Tournament.

I think this is a better representation of where I’d rank KState.

2022-23 Men's College Basketball Power Index | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view the Men's College Basketball Power Index (BPI) for the current season

www.espn.com

 

[ISUBryceC]

I am obviously very happy with the Big 12's analytics this year but IMO the big reason why they are so good is that there are very, very few bad losses.

The Big 12 has 1 Q4 Loss, 1 Q3 loss, and 6 Q2 losses as a conference.

The Big 10 has 3 Q4 losses, 6 Q3 losses, and 25 Q2 losses.

Add in that there are very few opportunities to even get a Q2 loss in Big 12 play, losing games just doesn't hurt that bad. ISU dropped from like 12 to 15 after losing to TT and is right back at 12 now after beating KU.

 

[HerkyFan]

I am obviously very happy with the Big 12's analytics this year but IMO the big reason why they are so good is that there are very, very few bad losses.

The Big 12 has 1 Q4 Loss, 1 Q3 loss, and 6 Q2 losses as a conference.

The Big 10 has 3 Q4 losses, 6 Q3 losses, and 25 Q2 losses.

Add in that there are very few opportunities to even get a Q2 loss in Big 12 play, losing games just doesn't hurt that bad. ISU dropped from like 12 to 15 after losing to TT and is right back at 12 now after beating KU.

Losing games doesn’t matter to clown fans. Well check that, isu losses don’t matter or count but Iowa losses do a must be discuss only how clown fans want them discussed.

 

[ISUBryceC]

Losing games doesn’t matter to clown fans. Well check that, isu losses don’t matter or count but Iowa losses do a must be discuss only how clown fans want them discussed.

Interesting response. Not an analytics guy I guess.

 

[HerkyFan]

Interesting response. Not an analytics guy I guess.

Don’t have to be an analytics guy to know that wins and losses matter regardless of what some analytic says. Clown fans have been touting SOS for decades now as to why they lose football games but guess what losses still count. They actually end up affecting what occurs in post season.

But go ahead and continue to think that losses don’t matter as long as the loss in against a conference opponent.

 

[ISUBryceC]

Don’t have to be an analytics guy to know that wins and losses matter regardless of what some analytic says. Clown fans have been touting SOS for decades now as to why they lose football games but guess what losses still count. They actually end up affecting what occurs in post season.

But go ahead and continue to think that losses don’t matter as long as the loss in against a conference opponent.

I said the losses are not nearly as significant in the Big 12 because basically every loss is a Q1 loss. They aren't analytics destroying because of that. Conference opponent doesn't matter. If Iowa loses at Purdue later this week I don't think it will have any effect on the NET at all for Iowa and I could honestly see it improving if they play well.

The big difference between Iowa's NET ranking of #35 and ISU's net ranking of #12 is Iowa has a Q3 and a Q4 loss. They have the same # of Q1 wins. Everything else in Iowa's profile would lead to them being a top 20 team.

If I had to seed Iowa right now I'd probably put them as a 5 or 6 seed despite the NET ranking because I think that while NET doesn't take in to consideration that Iowa is playing much better now than they were when they lost to Nebraska and EIU a month and a half ago. Is that more clear?

 

[HerkyFan]

I said the losses are not nearly as significant in the Big 12 because basically every loss is a Q1 loss. They aren't analytics destroying because of that. Conference opponent doesn't matter. If Iowa loses at Purdue later this week I don't think it will have any effect on the NET at all for Iowa and I could honestly see it improving if they play well.

The big difference between Iowa's NET ranking of #35 and ISU's net ranking of #12 is Iowa has a Q3 and a Q4 loss. They have the same # of Q1 wins. Everything else in Iowa's profile would lead to them being a top 20 team.

If I had to seed Iowa right now I'd probably put them as a 5 or 6 seed despite the NET ranking because I think that while NET doesn't take in to consideration that Iowa is playing much better now than they were when they lost to Nebraska and EIU a month and a half ago. Is that more clear?

The committee will see that those two losses occurred with Iowa not being at full strength. So as they have said Net is important but not the only thing they look at.

 

[dogs rule]

NET rankings are the most accurate predictor of NCAA seeding. It’s really that simple.

 

[relishingwinning18]

I am obviously very happy with the Big 12's analytics this year but IMO the big reason why they are so good is that there are very, very few bad losses.

The Big 12 has 1 Q4 Loss, 1 Q3 loss, and 6 Q2 losses as a conference.

The Big 10 has 3 Q4 losses, 6 Q3 losses, and 25 Q2 losses.

Add in that there are very few opportunities to even get a Q2 loss in Big 12 play, losing games just doesn't hurt that bad. ISU dropped from like 12 to 15 after losing to TT and is right back at 12 now after beating KU.

So it seems like the analytics really care about those bad losses more than really good wins.

 

[HerkyFan]

NET rankings are the most accurate predictor of NCAA seeding. It’s really that simple.

Have you figured out yet what the term “Outright Title” means? Figure that out first then we can move onto more complicated mental gymnastics.

 

[blackandgoldrainbows]

I said the losses are not nearly as significant in the Big 12 because basically every loss is a Q1 loss. They aren't analytics destroying because of that. Conference opponent doesn't matter. If Iowa loses at Purdue later this week I don't think it will have any effect on the NET at all for Iowa and I could honestly see it improving if they play well.

The big difference between Iowa's NET ranking of #35 and ISU's net ranking of #12 is Iowa has a Q3 and a Q4 loss. They have the same # of Q1 wins. Everything else in Iowa's profile would lead to them being a top 20 team.

If I had to seed Iowa right now I'd probably put them as a 5 or 6 seed despite the NET ranking because I think that while NET doesn't take in to consideration that Iowa is playing much better now than they were when they lost to Nebraska and EIU a month and a half ago. Is that more clear?

I agree here, that rough stretch for Iowa is going to haunt them all season I'm afraid. Very nice to have good conversation with opposing fan on here.

 

[jonesy5960]

Looking at TeamRanking.com, the Big 12 was #1 in 2013,2014,2015,2017,2018,2020,2021 and 2022. They were 2nd in 2019 to the Big East, and 2nd to the ACC in 2016. Last time the Big 10 was ranked 1 was 10 years ago in 2012. I believe KenPom has similar rankings. I believe that the Big 12 will get 8 Teams into the dance, which is 80%, and one team that will be left out, just destroyed a #1 seed, Alabama. By Net rankings, I believe the top 8 in the Big 12 are ranked ahead of Iowa right now.

And another #1 seed is joining the Big 12 in July, Houston.

This only looks this way because you dumped Nebraska on the B1G.

 

[ISUBryceC]

NET rankings are the most accurate predictor of NCAA seeding. It’s really that simple.

I looked at this recently as a few days ago. There are several examples of teams getting bumped up seeds from the mid 30s to the mid 20s and vice versa in the NCAA tourney selection committee true seeding/NET rankings. You're correct - most of the time they are very close. What I think Iowa fans should be looking at is teams that make sense to move down and teams like Iowa that make sense to move up. For example, West Virginia's NET is currently #20. Iowa's is #35. I think the profile for Iowa is better than that of WV, I could see WV not getting as good of a seed as they project currently and Iowa getting a better seed.

 

[WadeLookingbill]

I looked at this recently as a few days ago. There are several examples of teams getting bumped up seeds from the mid 30s to the mid 20s and vice versa in the NCAA tourney selection committee true seeding/NET rankings. You're correct - most of the time they are very close. What I think Iowa fans should be looking at is teams that make sense to move down and teams like Iowa that make sense to move up. For example, West Virginia's NET is currently #20. Iowa's is #35. I think the profile for Iowa is better than that of WV, I could see WV not getting as good of a seed as they project currently and Iowa getting a better seed.

Right, and there have been Net 30's teams that didn't even make the Dance. That's why it's the whole picture reviewed by the Committee. If Iowa doesn't stub its toe @ Minnesota or Nebraska at home, they'll definitely be a team that is seeded above the Net number (i.e. they need to continue to show the loss against EIU was an anomaly, without 2 starters including their best player after a brutal opening schedule wore them down).

 

[HerkyFan]

Right, and there have been Net 30's teams that didn't even make the Dance. That's why it's the whole picture reviewed by the Committee. If Iowa doesn't stub its toe @ Minnesota or Nebraska at home, they'll definitely be a team that is seeded above the Net number (i.e. they need to continue to show the loss against EIU was an anomaly, without 2 starters including their best player after a brutal opening schedule wore them down).

Yep. As the committee is found of saying the “entire body of work”. But that doesn’t fit the clown fan narrative.

 

[Bishop1971]

I have been of the opinion that the big 12 is good but overrated. I would love to know how Rutgers or Illinois would be right now if they were in the big 12. Tourny time will tell the story but sometimes a good team loses when they shouldn't. One and done is a hard way to separate conferences but the best available.

 

[CeMar_Clone]

Since 2016, ISU is 4-8 against the Big Ten, while Iowa is 6-4 against the Big 12, but great that the rest of your conference has helped you randomly feel better yourself.

I have been of the opinion that the big 12 is good but overrated. I would love to know how Rutgers or Illinois would be right now if they were in the big 12. Tourny time will tell the story but sometimes a good team loses when they shouldn't. One and done is a hard way to separate conferences but the best available.

2 consecutive national titles and you believe the conference is "overrated"? I expect to make this 3 in a row for NTs. My bet right now is Baylor.

 

[Hawkeyes4Life32]

The Big 12 is gey

 

[HerkyFan]

2 consecutive national titles and you believe the conference is "overrated"? I expect to make this 3 in a row for NTs. My bet right now is Baylor.

When isu gets dominated by big bro Iowa clown fans turn to conference success. Well at least until that proves to be a myth and then they go selective time frame.

Must suck always being little brother.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Interesting response. Not an analytics guy I guess.

Analytics = Iowa > Iowa State

There's even video evidence to support this........

 

[Mohawkeye]

So it seems like the analytics really care about those bad losses more than really good wins.

Seems like a major flaw in the NET ranking system is the arbitrary importance given to different Quads. The difference in the quality of a Q3 and Q4 team is often negligible but the Quad system disproportionately amplifies the importance of the higher ranked Quad. Why not just assign a sliding scale value to each of the 300 plus teams?

 

[Bishop1971]

2 consecutive national titles and you believe the conference is "overrated"? I expect to make this 3 in a row for NTs. My bet right now is Baylor.

I didn't say last year just as a whole this year. I usually predict wrong but i think Alabama or Purdue. It should be a really interesting tourny this year. Illinois and Rutgers are my long shot picks. I never make Iowa predictions, puts the jinx on them but i did call the 4 game winning stretch and then got laughed at. Nice win against Kansai btw. Hate Kansas.