Here is a list and breakdown of the games that seem like they are the toughest to predict with significant implications. This list will ignore games against top tier teams like OSU, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St on the road, as we won't have reasonable expectations to win those games, but obviously winning any of those would be big.
First of all, as I was typing out this list, it became clear that this season has a WIDE range of outcomes. We could realistically win or lose any of these games, so our ceiling is VERY HIGH (I'm seeing top range in the #2 BTT seed with a #3/4 NCAA seed) or we could lose the majority of these and finish below .500. If I'm missing any key matchup notes, feel free to remind me what I'm forgetting (or haven't seen yet). I'm looking to get some conversation going on our upcoming games with the Winter Break layoff coming up, while we're still enjoying some recent momentum.
In chronological order:
12/21 vs Cincinnati (Neutral - Chicago)
Implications: Cincinnati looks to be down this year, so we're likely looking at a borderline bubble team. This probably isn't a game against a tournament team, but it's still a quality opponent on a neutral floor.
Matchup: This appears to be a decent matchup for us. Cincinnati is another team that shoots poorly from distance, which will allow us to clog the middle, play zone and protect our short rotation from foul trouble. Cincinnati does try to draw a lot of fouls and shoot a lot of free throws, so unfortunately this could come down to how the game is called. If Garza picks up fouls, we could lose our MVP for long stretches of the game. That said, they don't seem to force turnovers, so the only way I see them making up for it is with blocks, where they are above average. However, if those blocks don't turn into defensive rebounds, they won't hurt us at all.
Prediction: Iowa by 8
1/4 @ Penn St. (Neutral - Philadelphia)
Implications: The B1G seems wide open after OSU (and potentially a few teams may join them at the top). This will be a big game in determining the middle of the B1G standings, and should be a matchup against two tournament teams for seeding.
Matchup: This seems to be a very lucky situation. Penn St. agreed to play a home game at the Palestra in Philly, so they are losing what would have been a home game. It will still be a pro-Penn St. crowd, but likely a more tame crowd than what we might have seen in State College, PA. This is a more interesting matchup to me, as Penn St. also likes to play fast. They're another team that doesn't shoot particularly well from distance, so unless they get hot, we should be able to play primarily zone. However, this will open us up on the glass, where they'll have a chance to stay in the game with second chance points. We should, however, be able to get them into some foul trouble and shoot plenty of free throws.
Prediction: Iowa by 2
1/10 vs Maryland
Implications: Here is an opportunity for a home marquee win. Maryland has recently been a #1 seed in ESPN's bracketology, and while they likely won't end up there, it gives you a sense of they type of opportunity this is.
Matchup: This should be a VERY good game. While I trust Garza to win any individual matchup, Maryland's interior scares me a bit. They do a great job on the glass, and block a lot of shots. Their guards also take care of the ball well, so they likely won't beat themselves unless they get trigger happy from deep where they're only hitting 30.8% from three. I don't expect either team to shoot a lot of FTs in this game, so it will likely come down to shooting percentages, which is a real crap shoot in individual games.
Prediction: Maryland by 6
1/17 vs Michigan
Implications: Another situation where the team has been highly rated early in the season. Another opportunity for a marquee win at Carver.
Matchup: We've seen this matchup once with an unfavorable result in Ann Arbor. I think we've also seen that Michigan doesn't always shoot as well as they did against us. I don't love the matchup with how balanced Michigan can be, especially if Bohannon shuts it down and our bench is even thinner this time around.
Prediction: Michigan by 8
1/27 vs Wisconsin
Implications: Wisconsin seems down this year. They'll need a stellar showing in the B1G to be in the conversation, but we have seen them do that before. Likely, this will be more important to us for B1G tournament seeding than direct NCAA tournament seeding competition.
Matchup: Wisconsin will likely be able to keep this lower scoring compared to other matchups, which should keep the game close-ish. I just don't see them being able to keep up with our offensive firepower especially in Carver. Trice has been in a shooting slump this year, and they just don't seem to have enough reliable shooters this year.
Prediction: Iowa by 10
2/2 vs Illinois
Implications: Illinois looks like it will find itself squarely on the bubble this year. They're a quality squad, but the only noteworthy win is their home win vs Michigan. They've missed opportunities against Maryland and Miami, and got beat badly at Arizona. This would be a really good game to get to help ensure a tourney bid as it could be a direct competition against a bubble team if we struggle during the B1G season.
Matchup: This Illini squad seems very different from previous versions. Last year they allowed a TON of free throws, and this year they are 3rd in free throw rate allowed. Kofi Cockburn is a LOAD down low. I trust Garza can win this matchup, but we'll likely need some good defensive minutes from Kriener to help spell Luka at times. Again, this is a poor 3 point shooting team, so we should be able to pack the paint and make life difficult on their 2 point attempts, forcing them to play on the perimeter where they'll be less comfortable.
Prediction: Iowa by 6
2/13 @ Indiana
Implications: Indiana should hear its name called on Selection Sunday, I'd expect an 8-10 seed. They've got a couple good wins so far, but only 1 win away from home. This could be a big game for seeding.
Matchup: Indiana has some good pieces with a few really good shooters. They like to play downhill and attack the basket, which draws fouls and gets them to the free throw line where they convert at an average clip. If we can maintain verticality and bother shots without fouling, I think we come out on top, but with our depth issues, foul trouble could doom us.
Prediction: Indiana by 4
2/16 @ Minnesota
Implications: This looks to be a rebuild based on Minnesota's early season returns. Their only win of note is vs Clemson (KP's #90) at home. This is a game where we'll be looking to pad our record away from home to differentiate us from other teams in seeding of the NCAA tournament.
Matchup: Oturu is definitely their biggest threat, as he had a pretty good game against Garza himself. They certainly have guys capable of hitting threes at a higher rate than what we saw in Carver, and I think some of how we ran them out of the gym is easily correctable (transition defense to identify Joe Wieskamp…).
Prediction: Iowa by 6
2/20 vs Ohio St.
Implications: Another marquee win opportunity. We'll see how OSU is viewed at this point in the season, but right now, you're not going to find a better team to beat.
Matchup: There's not a lot of things that you can exploit against OSU. They're a very sound team without any glaring weaknesses. They're one of the few teams that seem to shoot threes better than we do, and they've got another one of the top centers in the country in Kaleb Wesson. The Garza/Wesson matchup will garner some headlines leading up to this game, but I think the game will be decided by the guards.
Prediction: OSU by 12
2/29 vs Penn St.
See Implications/Matchup above.
Prediction: Iowa by 8
3/3 vs Purdue
Implications: Yet again, an opportunity for a marquee win at Carver. Purdue hasn't gotten the results of a top 3 seed, but they've looked the part with their statistical profile. If they make a run in the B1G, I could see them ending up there.
Matchup: If we can track their shooter(s? - Stefanovic seems like the only reliable one), I think we'll have the ability to slow them enough with our zone defense. This is going to be a game that could be decided on the boards, as Purdue is a great rebounding team.
Prediction: Iowa by 4
I think if the Hawks feel they need this game for a tourney birth, they'll get it, although if they're already comfortable, I could see us not emphasizing the details enough to pull it out.
3/8 @ Illinois
See Implications/Matchup above.
Prediction: Illinois by 9
First of all, as I was typing out this list, it became clear that this season has a WIDE range of outcomes. We could realistically win or lose any of these games, so our ceiling is VERY HIGH (I'm seeing top range in the #2 BTT seed with a #3/4 NCAA seed) or we could lose the majority of these and finish below .500. If I'm missing any key matchup notes, feel free to remind me what I'm forgetting (or haven't seen yet). I'm looking to get some conversation going on our upcoming games with the Winter Break layoff coming up, while we're still enjoying some recent momentum.
In chronological order:
12/21 vs Cincinnati (Neutral - Chicago)
Implications: Cincinnati looks to be down this year, so we're likely looking at a borderline bubble team. This probably isn't a game against a tournament team, but it's still a quality opponent on a neutral floor.
Matchup: This appears to be a decent matchup for us. Cincinnati is another team that shoots poorly from distance, which will allow us to clog the middle, play zone and protect our short rotation from foul trouble. Cincinnati does try to draw a lot of fouls and shoot a lot of free throws, so unfortunately this could come down to how the game is called. If Garza picks up fouls, we could lose our MVP for long stretches of the game. That said, they don't seem to force turnovers, so the only way I see them making up for it is with blocks, where they are above average. However, if those blocks don't turn into defensive rebounds, they won't hurt us at all.
Prediction: Iowa by 8
1/4 @ Penn St. (Neutral - Philadelphia)
Implications: The B1G seems wide open after OSU (and potentially a few teams may join them at the top). This will be a big game in determining the middle of the B1G standings, and should be a matchup against two tournament teams for seeding.
Matchup: This seems to be a very lucky situation. Penn St. agreed to play a home game at the Palestra in Philly, so they are losing what would have been a home game. It will still be a pro-Penn St. crowd, but likely a more tame crowd than what we might have seen in State College, PA. This is a more interesting matchup to me, as Penn St. also likes to play fast. They're another team that doesn't shoot particularly well from distance, so unless they get hot, we should be able to play primarily zone. However, this will open us up on the glass, where they'll have a chance to stay in the game with second chance points. We should, however, be able to get them into some foul trouble and shoot plenty of free throws.
Prediction: Iowa by 2
1/10 vs Maryland
Implications: Here is an opportunity for a home marquee win. Maryland has recently been a #1 seed in ESPN's bracketology, and while they likely won't end up there, it gives you a sense of they type of opportunity this is.
Matchup: This should be a VERY good game. While I trust Garza to win any individual matchup, Maryland's interior scares me a bit. They do a great job on the glass, and block a lot of shots. Their guards also take care of the ball well, so they likely won't beat themselves unless they get trigger happy from deep where they're only hitting 30.8% from three. I don't expect either team to shoot a lot of FTs in this game, so it will likely come down to shooting percentages, which is a real crap shoot in individual games.
Prediction: Maryland by 6
1/17 vs Michigan
Implications: Another situation where the team has been highly rated early in the season. Another opportunity for a marquee win at Carver.
Matchup: We've seen this matchup once with an unfavorable result in Ann Arbor. I think we've also seen that Michigan doesn't always shoot as well as they did against us. I don't love the matchup with how balanced Michigan can be, especially if Bohannon shuts it down and our bench is even thinner this time around.
Prediction: Michigan by 8
1/27 vs Wisconsin
Implications: Wisconsin seems down this year. They'll need a stellar showing in the B1G to be in the conversation, but we have seen them do that before. Likely, this will be more important to us for B1G tournament seeding than direct NCAA tournament seeding competition.
Matchup: Wisconsin will likely be able to keep this lower scoring compared to other matchups, which should keep the game close-ish. I just don't see them being able to keep up with our offensive firepower especially in Carver. Trice has been in a shooting slump this year, and they just don't seem to have enough reliable shooters this year.
Prediction: Iowa by 10
2/2 vs Illinois
Implications: Illinois looks like it will find itself squarely on the bubble this year. They're a quality squad, but the only noteworthy win is their home win vs Michigan. They've missed opportunities against Maryland and Miami, and got beat badly at Arizona. This would be a really good game to get to help ensure a tourney bid as it could be a direct competition against a bubble team if we struggle during the B1G season.
Matchup: This Illini squad seems very different from previous versions. Last year they allowed a TON of free throws, and this year they are 3rd in free throw rate allowed. Kofi Cockburn is a LOAD down low. I trust Garza can win this matchup, but we'll likely need some good defensive minutes from Kriener to help spell Luka at times. Again, this is a poor 3 point shooting team, so we should be able to pack the paint and make life difficult on their 2 point attempts, forcing them to play on the perimeter where they'll be less comfortable.
Prediction: Iowa by 6
2/13 @ Indiana
Implications: Indiana should hear its name called on Selection Sunday, I'd expect an 8-10 seed. They've got a couple good wins so far, but only 1 win away from home. This could be a big game for seeding.
Matchup: Indiana has some good pieces with a few really good shooters. They like to play downhill and attack the basket, which draws fouls and gets them to the free throw line where they convert at an average clip. If we can maintain verticality and bother shots without fouling, I think we come out on top, but with our depth issues, foul trouble could doom us.
Prediction: Indiana by 4
2/16 @ Minnesota
Implications: This looks to be a rebuild based on Minnesota's early season returns. Their only win of note is vs Clemson (KP's #90) at home. This is a game where we'll be looking to pad our record away from home to differentiate us from other teams in seeding of the NCAA tournament.
Matchup: Oturu is definitely their biggest threat, as he had a pretty good game against Garza himself. They certainly have guys capable of hitting threes at a higher rate than what we saw in Carver, and I think some of how we ran them out of the gym is easily correctable (transition defense to identify Joe Wieskamp…).
Prediction: Iowa by 6
2/20 vs Ohio St.
Implications: Another marquee win opportunity. We'll see how OSU is viewed at this point in the season, but right now, you're not going to find a better team to beat.
Matchup: There's not a lot of things that you can exploit against OSU. They're a very sound team without any glaring weaknesses. They're one of the few teams that seem to shoot threes better than we do, and they've got another one of the top centers in the country in Kaleb Wesson. The Garza/Wesson matchup will garner some headlines leading up to this game, but I think the game will be decided by the guards.
Prediction: OSU by 12
2/29 vs Penn St.
See Implications/Matchup above.
Prediction: Iowa by 8
Implications: Yet again, an opportunity for a marquee win at Carver. Purdue hasn't gotten the results of a top 3 seed, but they've looked the part with their statistical profile. If they make a run in the B1G, I could see them ending up there.
Matchup: If we can track their shooter(s? - Stefanovic seems like the only reliable one), I think we'll have the ability to slow them enough with our zone defense. This is going to be a game that could be decided on the boards, as Purdue is a great rebounding team.
Prediction: Iowa by 4
I think if the Hawks feel they need this game for a tourney birth, they'll get it, although if they're already comfortable, I could see us not emphasizing the details enough to pull it out.
3/8 @ Illinois
See Implications/Matchup above.
Prediction: Illinois by 9
