Late last night, Congressional leaders and the White House reached a big deal to avert default and keep the government funded. Now it has to be sold to members of Congress in both parties, and conservatives are already revolting.
The short version is that the debt limit will be raised and government will be funded for two years at higher-than-sequester levels, to be paid for by various spending cuts, including to entitlements. But an expert tells me that these cuts will not meaningfully harm Social Security or Medicare beneficiaries.
Here is a rough breakdown of who got what in this deal (and consider this very much subject to revision, as more information comes in):
What Democrats got:
— $40 billion in additional non-defense spending, over and above the caps imposed by the sequester, over two years
— a debt limit hike through March of 2017, meaning no more conservative-manufactured debt limit extortion through that date
— an end to conservative-manufactured government shutdown drama through the election and beyond
— a solution to a glitch in cost-of-living calculations that threatened to hike premiums for millions on Medicare Part B
— a reallocation of Social Security funds that Dems had sought to keep disability insurance solvent
What Republicans got:
— $40 billion in additional defense spending, over and above the caps imposed by the sequester, over two years, plus an additional chunk of defense spending in a side contingency fund. That is to say, an increase in defense spending overall that is higher than the increase in non-defense spending
— Medicare cuts, but (according to reports and experts) only on the provider side
— A tightening of eligibility requirements to the Social Security Disability Insurance program that experts say does not equal a benefits cut
— a debt limit hike through March of 2017, meaning no more conservative-manufactured debt limit extortion through that date
— an end to conservative-manufactured government shutdown drama through the election and beyond
— a solution to a glitch in cost-of-living calculations that threatened to hike premiums for millions on Medicare Part B
Careful readers will note that I’m arguing that both Democrats and Republicans got an end to debt limit and government shutdown extortion. There has long been a dominant fiction in Washington that agreeing to lift the debt limit somehow constituted a concession on the part of Republicans for which they should be given something in return by Democrats. In reality, Republican leaders themselves have wanted the debt limit increased — because default would hurt the country — and have acquiesced in the manufacturing of debt ceiling crises mainly in a vain quest to placate conservatives by making it look as if the GOP is “fighting” Obama. Thus, both sides have now been liberated from the need to do this any longer. Meanwhile, both sides wanted the fix to Medicare Part B. Both got that.
On Medicare and Social Security: Nancy Altman, the president of Social Security Works, a group that strenuously opposes benefits cuts and argues for their expansion, tells me that the deal “doesn’t actually cut benefits or really hurt beneficiaries who aren’t gaming the system.”
Altman says the Medicare cuts are all on the provider side, which could harm beneficiaries at some point, but it’s not a major concern. “On the Medicare side, they limited their cuts to far in the future, and to providers,” Altman says. “There’s time to correct that.”
On the change to Social Security, Altman says: “They stiffened the penalties for fraud, they extended nationwide efforts to make sure that payments are accurate and they closed a loophole in which people were gaming the system. They didn’t change eligibility requirements or reduce the level of benefits.”
Altman notes that Republicans had been threatening to demand serious Social Security and Medicare cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit, but adds this threat has been defused. “The hostage has been released,” Altman says.
It still remains to be seen whether today’s deal will pass Congress. But for now, it needs to be judged against the alternative: lower spending levels that would constitute a drag on the recovery; more debt limit and government shutdown crises, with a worst-case scenario involving widespread economic damage (which also could have hurt Dem chances in 2016); a deal in which benefits really were cut.
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* BOEHNER STICKS IT TO CONSERVATIVES: Carl Hulse reports that conservatives are already condemning the budget deal, attacking John Boehner as a “rogue agent” because he negotiated it before leaving, which somehow doesn’t count. And:
It also provides one last opportunity to rile the conservatives who called for his scalp while acting in what he sees as the best interests of both the nation and the Republican Party. Mr. Boehner probably sees that as grand enough.
In other words, Boehner has the last word.
* GOP LEADERS PLOT TO GET DEAL PAST CONSERVATIVES: Politico also reports that conservatives are angry about the budget deal, but adds this:
GOP leaders are operating under the assumption that despite the grumblings from the right, they should be able to draw enough votes from the center to comfortably pass the legislation in both chambers.
That means a lot of Democrats will be necessary to pass it. This is the favor Boehner is doing to clear the decks for Paul Ryan, likely the next Speaker. One question is whether conservatives will target Ryan for quietly acquiescing in this arrangement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...a-temporary-outbreak-of-sanity-in-washington/
The short version is that the debt limit will be raised and government will be funded for two years at higher-than-sequester levels, to be paid for by various spending cuts, including to entitlements. But an expert tells me that these cuts will not meaningfully harm Social Security or Medicare beneficiaries.
Here is a rough breakdown of who got what in this deal (and consider this very much subject to revision, as more information comes in):
What Democrats got:
— $40 billion in additional non-defense spending, over and above the caps imposed by the sequester, over two years
— a debt limit hike through March of 2017, meaning no more conservative-manufactured debt limit extortion through that date
— an end to conservative-manufactured government shutdown drama through the election and beyond
— a solution to a glitch in cost-of-living calculations that threatened to hike premiums for millions on Medicare Part B
— a reallocation of Social Security funds that Dems had sought to keep disability insurance solvent
What Republicans got:
— $40 billion in additional defense spending, over and above the caps imposed by the sequester, over two years, plus an additional chunk of defense spending in a side contingency fund. That is to say, an increase in defense spending overall that is higher than the increase in non-defense spending
— Medicare cuts, but (according to reports and experts) only on the provider side
— A tightening of eligibility requirements to the Social Security Disability Insurance program that experts say does not equal a benefits cut
— a debt limit hike through March of 2017, meaning no more conservative-manufactured debt limit extortion through that date
— an end to conservative-manufactured government shutdown drama through the election and beyond
— a solution to a glitch in cost-of-living calculations that threatened to hike premiums for millions on Medicare Part B
Careful readers will note that I’m arguing that both Democrats and Republicans got an end to debt limit and government shutdown extortion. There has long been a dominant fiction in Washington that agreeing to lift the debt limit somehow constituted a concession on the part of Republicans for which they should be given something in return by Democrats. In reality, Republican leaders themselves have wanted the debt limit increased — because default would hurt the country — and have acquiesced in the manufacturing of debt ceiling crises mainly in a vain quest to placate conservatives by making it look as if the GOP is “fighting” Obama. Thus, both sides have now been liberated from the need to do this any longer. Meanwhile, both sides wanted the fix to Medicare Part B. Both got that.
On Medicare and Social Security: Nancy Altman, the president of Social Security Works, a group that strenuously opposes benefits cuts and argues for their expansion, tells me that the deal “doesn’t actually cut benefits or really hurt beneficiaries who aren’t gaming the system.”
Altman says the Medicare cuts are all on the provider side, which could harm beneficiaries at some point, but it’s not a major concern. “On the Medicare side, they limited their cuts to far in the future, and to providers,” Altman says. “There’s time to correct that.”
On the change to Social Security, Altman says: “They stiffened the penalties for fraud, they extended nationwide efforts to make sure that payments are accurate and they closed a loophole in which people were gaming the system. They didn’t change eligibility requirements or reduce the level of benefits.”
Altman notes that Republicans had been threatening to demand serious Social Security and Medicare cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit, but adds this threat has been defused. “The hostage has been released,” Altman says.
It still remains to be seen whether today’s deal will pass Congress. But for now, it needs to be judged against the alternative: lower spending levels that would constitute a drag on the recovery; more debt limit and government shutdown crises, with a worst-case scenario involving widespread economic damage (which also could have hurt Dem chances in 2016); a deal in which benefits really were cut.
*******************************************************************
* BOEHNER STICKS IT TO CONSERVATIVES: Carl Hulse reports that conservatives are already condemning the budget deal, attacking John Boehner as a “rogue agent” because he negotiated it before leaving, which somehow doesn’t count. And:
It also provides one last opportunity to rile the conservatives who called for his scalp while acting in what he sees as the best interests of both the nation and the Republican Party. Mr. Boehner probably sees that as grand enough.
In other words, Boehner has the last word.
* GOP LEADERS PLOT TO GET DEAL PAST CONSERVATIVES: Politico also reports that conservatives are angry about the budget deal, but adds this:
GOP leaders are operating under the assumption that despite the grumblings from the right, they should be able to draw enough votes from the center to comfortably pass the legislation in both chambers.
That means a lot of Democrats will be necessary to pass it. This is the favor Boehner is doing to clear the decks for Paul Ryan, likely the next Speaker. One question is whether conservatives will target Ryan for quietly acquiescing in this arrangement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...a-temporary-outbreak-of-sanity-in-washington/
