ADVERTISEMENT

Buy the dip?

Short term vs long term. Short term cuts help get through the worst part. Worry about the disparities later.
Short term manipulating interest rates just deludes entrepreneurs and investors about what people actually want and can afford and thus slows the recovery. You spend more time in the ‘worst part’, and repeatedly so, because the credit juice events just set up the next malinvestment.

Witness:

“To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”
- Paul Krugman, 2002
 
  • Haha
Reactions: RileyHawk
I sold out before. Well before. I also hate trying to time things. We really don't have very bad news yet.
Actually the news that was received last night was pretty damn bad. If it continues for long we're headed for a really rough patch.
 
So this is bad, but I don't really see that happening. That would mean a drop below 13,000 or 35% from the peak. We're already down 22% at around 15500. If it does that it's really going to smart. I'm hoping Trump starts to cave before that.
Caving really is the game. Who blinks first...
 
Caving really is the game. Who blinks first...
Yeah. I'm really hoping we don't hear a lot about retaliatory stuff over the next few days. Things can spiral pretty fast if that happens and then all bets are off. I wouldn't be shocked by some kind of cooperative action.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thewop
It's not the time to buy, we aren't near the bottom if these tariffs stick.....the uncertainty certainly will be here for the next 46 months.

Now is the time to watch the tide go out and wait for discounts on the nice-to-have hard assets like vacation property and old, loud cars
 
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Underphuquin’ statement of the year! Ever since 1/20/25, this market has been “ripe” for a downturn! Yesterday my President gave it a chance to happen!
Hail to thee, oh Orange Turd! DOGE this!
You really need to stop day drinking🙃
 
It's not the time to buy, we aren't near the bottom if these tariffs stick.....the uncertainty certainly will be here for the next 46 months.

Now is the time to watch the tide go out and wait for discounts on the nice-to-have hard assets like vacation property and old, loud cars
Zero chance this last anywhere near that.

My guess is Xmas shopping season at most.
 
Oh you financial wizard! When is your book going to be published?
Oh I'm not saying I'm right. I have an extraordinary record of being wrong with my investments. In fact, one could probably have retired if they traded just making contrary moves to me.
 
Oh I'm not saying I'm right. I have an extraordinary record of being wrong with my investments. In fact, one could probably have retired if they traded just making contrary moves to me.
I have bought two individual stocks in my life…..I bought a whole bunch of “Rite Aid” after “studying “ ObamaCare and how RX might be handled after it was adopted…..and bought it cheap….a couple of thousands shares…..I cashed it in this last year for almost $100 total………But then about 15-17 years ago I bought several shares of Buffet’s Hathaway Class “B” for about $100/share……..this week it was worth $532/share…..≥I should have bought more shares, huh? I haven’t looked at its worth since Monday…….One never knows……
 
Actually the news that was received last night was pretty damn bad. If it continues for long we're headed for a really rough patch.
We don’t have big brokerages going under, there is no mortgage crisis, unemployment is low. Interest rates are fairly low.

So far. … It is coming though
 
We don’t have big brokerages going under, there is no mortgage crisis, unemployment is low. Interest rates are fairly low.

So far. … It is coming though
That was my point. The stated policy was the news I feared. The rest that follows is simply the predictable outcome. Global recession is now a given. The only question now is how deep and whether we enter a period of prolonged stagflation. It's still not too late to avoid the worst, but right now it's a biggest dick contest. This U.S. against the world shit needs to end.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kelsers
5100-5144 was the target.

There is a Gartley target at 4970. Hope we don’t have to chase that number.

Elliot Wave : A=C has been established.
 
We don’t have big brokerages going under, there is no mortgage crisis, unemployment is low. Interest rates are fairly low.

So far. … It is coming though
And our allies in Europe and Asia are buddying up to China!
Spin this however you must. It is not a good thing. Americans have lost billions if $$ the past 48 hours. There is not a legitimate economist that can explain the logic behind the Trump tariffs. And the President’s response is to flee to Florida this weekend to play golf and watch a LIV Tour golf tournament there.
The one constant here Illowa is that my President follows the $$. It doesn’t even have to be American $$.
 
Trump is an erratic dingbat. Could call off the tariff shit a month from now and this was our big opportunity. Who knows. No confidence in anything.
As if he won't just do something else to F things up, like start a war or something. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy the crash with this doofus in charge.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Colonoscopy
And our allies in Europe and Asia are buddying up to China!
Spin this however you must. It is not a good thing. Americans have lost billions if $$ the past 48 hours. There is not a legitimate economist that can explain the logic behind the Trump tariffs. And the President’s response is to flee to Florida this weekend to play golf and watch a LIV Tour golf tournament there.
The one constant here Illowa is that my President follows the $$. It doesn’t even have to be American $$.
I’m not spinning anything. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
 
That was my point. The stated policy was the news I feared. The rest that follows is simply the predictable outcome. Global recession is now a given. The only question now is how deep and whether we enter a period of prolonged stagflation. It's still not too late to avoid the worst, but right now it's a biggest dick contest. This U.S. against the world shit needs to end.
Bingo.

We were heading this way. Trump added oxygen and a match to the house of paper cards.

We have the ingredients of a world war
 
It seems like every time I check the Russell is down more than the others - and never up more than the others. I'm surprised it isn't in the negative.

How does anyone make money playing the Russell?

Because I always ignore the Russell, I have no idea why this is a good sign for American businesses. Can you elaborate?
Statistically, the Russell is positive 99% on a 6-year rolling avg vs SP (86%).
Russell has been brutal as of late. It will bounce higher, always does.
The worst is behind us and in 6 months it will be yesterday’s news.
 
Go ahead, catch the falling knife.
I ain't trying to catch a falling knife. We've fallen so far so fast, who knows where this ends up. I will grab the knife after it reaches terminal velocity, craters, and bounces back some.
 
5100-5144 was the target.

There is a Gartley target at 4970. Hope we don’t have to chase that number.

Elliot Wave : A=C has been established.

I don’t think the Elliot Wave method works when you have LARPers running the nation. It can’t account for the numptery and destruction that happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pjhawk
I ain't trying to catch a falling knife. We've fallen so far so fast, who knows where this ends up. I will grab the knife after it reaches terminal velocity, craters, and bounces back some.
when you say knife you mean ETF or individual stocks?
 
Went 100% cash on 2/6.

Not at the high but damn close.

I'm a big believer in a penny saved is a penny earned.

Let's just say, I've earned A LOT of money since then.

When I sold I was expecting a good 20-30% decrease in the market.

PS My wife was pissed when I texted her I sold everything in her 403b and IRA's. Now she think's I'm a genius.

So yeah, I got that going for me. :)
 
And our allies in Europe and Asia are buddying up to China!
Spin this however you must. It is not a good thing. Americans have lost billions if $$ the past 48 hours. There is not a legitimate economist that can explain the logic behind the Trump tariffs. And the President’s response is to flee to Florida this weekend to play golf and watch a LIV Tour golf tournament there.
The one constant here Illowa is that my President follows the $$. It doesn’t even have to be American $$.
If you stay the course (stay in the market) and actually pour more money into the market you will be very wealthy as this correction ends and the market starts going up again.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT