CNN with some dooms day prediction
- Thread starter ihhawk
- Start date
Well, that settles it.
What’s the plan for 2028?
What’s the plan for 2028?
I think there might be a plan for a brokered convention. Dems shouldn't give up on 2024 just yet.
Haven’t the polls said the same thing the last couple elections? Red wave or red tsunami something something… I remember how those turned out.
Exactly....the GQP will get smoked this year
1. Even a mere six months out, we are an eternity away. So Fareed (who I normally admire as being a fairly measured fellow) is way too premature with his concerns, per #2.
2. Ignore national polls entirely. For the time being, take battleground state polls with a grain of salt. (But that set from the NYT this morning - yikes!) But looking at them, Biden's pathway is not at all complicated, in that there are three states where I view him as the presumptive favorite (PA, MI, WI), and if he wins them, he wins the election.
3. I do think the lawfare has backfired a bit, or at least hasn't been the panacea expected by Chis. I'm perfectly happy with the feds pursuing their cases, but the state ones and those pursuing them really are a joke.
4. Further to #3, I think what people are missing is that the "undecideds" are relatively few in number, and that at least for the moment, the lawfare is having a greater motivational effect on Trump supporters than it is on Biden supporters and/or undecideds (individually or collectively). Perhaps that might change once an actual adverse result occurs or when it all just fades into background noise.
5. Further to #4, given the truly obscene amounts of money in the bank for this election, and the relatively limited persuadability of voters, there are going to be a lot of comm's firms making a killing for very modest contributions over the next six months. If the Trump campaign had concerns about the "walking around money" in get out the vote campaigns in the past, they ought to be terrified of it this cycle.
6. Equally as interesting though, most of the polls in the key Senate races are consistently running stubbornly in favor of D incumbents. It'll be interesting to see if R money that is sitting out the presidential cycle and instead being invested in the Senate has an impact there over the coming months.
2. Ignore national polls entirely. For the time being, take battleground state polls with a grain of salt. (But that set from the NYT this morning - yikes!) But looking at them, Biden's pathway is not at all complicated, in that there are three states where I view him as the presumptive favorite (PA, MI, WI), and if he wins them, he wins the election.
3. I do think the lawfare has backfired a bit, or at least hasn't been the panacea expected by Chis. I'm perfectly happy with the feds pursuing their cases, but the state ones and those pursuing them really are a joke.
4. Further to #3, I think what people are missing is that the "undecideds" are relatively few in number, and that at least for the moment, the lawfare is having a greater motivational effect on Trump supporters than it is on Biden supporters and/or undecideds (individually or collectively). Perhaps that might change once an actual adverse result occurs or when it all just fades into background noise.
5. Further to #4, given the truly obscene amounts of money in the bank for this election, and the relatively limited persuadability of voters, there are going to be a lot of comm's firms making a killing for very modest contributions over the next six months. If the Trump campaign had concerns about the "walking around money" in get out the vote campaigns in the past, they ought to be terrified of it this cycle.
6. Equally as interesting though, most of the polls in the key Senate races are consistently running stubbornly in favor of D incumbents. It'll be interesting to see if R money that is sitting out the presidential cycle and instead being invested in the Senate has an impact there over the coming months.
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Interestingly, in the NYT/Sienna battlegrounds today, there really wasn't that much difference in the candidates' respective registered-to-likely differentials (truly a wash), with the exception of MI where Biden did much better.
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www.nytimes.com
1. Trump picks a "decent" VP.
2. Trump wins election / gets impeached again.
3. This time the impeachment goes all the way (because of #1 - republicans will finally be sick of this shit, and are ok with the VP).
4. Problem kinda solved. For now.
2. Trump wins election / gets impeached again.
3. This time the impeachment goes all the way (because of #1 - republicans will finally be sick of this shit, and are ok with the VP).
4. Problem kinda solved. For now.
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If you actually dig into the NYT HTH numbers a bit, at least for this set of polls, which I acknowledge is just one pollster, 93% of pro-Biden respondents were somewhat or more likely to vote, compared to 89% of pro-Trump respondents. In short, if 'hopiumchronicles' road to victory is (as it suggests) based on turnout, today's data would suggest that they have a smaller opportunity there compared to the trump campaign. Then again, it is completely unsurprising that hopiumchronicles would advocate that as the road to victory, given that hopiumchronicles appears to be a political consultant specializing in get out the vote strategies.
I will be completely shocked if Trump wins.
I can’t see him gaining votes from 2020. He has to be losing votes everyday.
Dems just need to show up at voting time.
RFK tanked a lot of his possible voters with that crazy worm talk. Not that he ever had a chance but his pull in vote count is going down every day now also.
I can’t see him gaining votes from 2020. He has to be losing votes everyday.
Dems just need to show up at voting time.
RFK tanked a lot of his possible voters with that crazy worm talk. Not that he ever had a chance but his pull in vote count is going down every day now also.
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Interesting to see comments made about Braggs case. I do think that the jury will quickly convict Trump. That’s too obvious.
Sounds like Zarkaria is starting to buy the media's own bullshit. But whatever, the only way Democrats lose this is if they don't show up. So maybe this is all just a big conspiracy to keep Democratic turnout high.
How desperate are you? The only tweet you could find is from hopiumchronicles.com?
Has anyone, until today, ever heard of this website?
LOL
Like I said in the other thread, if Trump gets off of this charge without any damage it will have helped him greatly. Now, the newest help given to him is that because of the timing of this trial, all of the other charges and potential trials have now been pushed to after the election. And that's including the one he needed to worry about the most in Georgia. So, it goes from 91 indictments to zero real quick after this trial.
Biden should lose based on
* the economy
* the border
* interest rates
* his foreign policy (Afghanistan, Israel/Hamas, etc)
But I don't see Trump getting over 40% of the overall vote. Too many people hate him and will never vote for him no matter what.
The Republicans needed not only a stronger candidate for the general election but a candidate who could potentially serve 8 years, too.
Right now Trump is leading in PA, AZ, MI, GA and NV. Biden only leads in WI.
Not sure how/if that holds up. Maybe @Chishawk1425 can find a tweet to help explain this.
Remember, too, that Muslim Americans have vowed to make sure Biden loses in November. They'd rather have a Trump Muslim ban than Biden standing shoulder to shoulder with Israel's bombings and slaughter of Palestinians.
If the fed lowers interest rates inflation will take off again. What alternatives are there?
Trump spends just like Biden. Too much.
That's true, although it will depend on how he beats it. If it's because there is a cult member on the jury who blatantly is just doing Trump's bidding then he won't get the bump you might expect. Ignoring the not being in jail part, it probably helps him more than it hurts him. Because of course he will be talking about how justice was served no matter how obvious it is that the juror had an agenda.
Those polls just aren't accurate. The Muslim thing is a real threat, but if they end Democracy because of things that Biden can't control then they get what they wanted. Have fun being separated from your kids, getting deported, and then never seeing them again.
But the reality is for most young people, the Israel-Palestine conflict just isn't a high priority for determining who they are going to vote for.
The only change Trump needs to make is to curb his smart phone use,.. everything else being the same would make his second term an improvement over Biden...
6 months is a long long ways to go.
Biden has a huge war chest that they haven’t even opened yet. The summer is going to be a ruthless onslaught of women’s rights commercials.
Still might not be enough but it’s not worth losing sleep over either.
Biden has a huge war chest that they haven’t even opened yet. The summer is going to be a ruthless onslaught of women’s rights commercials.
Still might not be enough but it’s not worth losing sleep over either.
You got your WI and your MI reversed (vertical dyslexia?). Either way, I suspect those bigger ones are all in the margin of error at the moment, and as noted, I actually think Biden is the presumptive favorite in PA, WI, and MI until proven otherwise.
As to Muslim-Americans, I suspect the only place that might make a dent is MI. And that's if (a huge if) Gaza is still at the top of the headlines in October and we haven't started
Isn't this entire thing part of an agenda? He's being accused of covering up a crime and they won't say what the actual crime is being covered up. It's obvious after Stormy's testimony they aren't worried about putting shit out there. Who else on earth would ever be charged with something like this without ever even naming a crime being covered up? If I was on that jury I'd be like, "Well what crime is he covering up?" Wouldn't you?
You never know about polls, but these aren't campaign or party polls. They're the NYT, and they're not inconsistent with many of the other battleground numbers out there. To the extent there's an eyebrow raiser with the NYT polls methodology, it appears to be that the sampling period is pretty broad (11 days).
