D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 17 • D1Baseball
Have questions about the latest rankings and more at D1Baseball? If you have questions, we have answers.
D1Baseball weekly chat.....again will post any questions relevant to B1G teams or college baseball in general.
Terpitude: I'm now seriously concerned about Maryland making the NCAA Tournament. What are their chances if they finish second in the B1G regular season standings with something like a 17-7 record?
Aaron Fitt: The Terps are not in a position of strength right now, with an RPI outside the top 60, but they do keep on winning series. I think they'll probably have to win the Big Ten regular-season title to put themselves in at-large position though, considering that RPI issue. Feels like Maryland scheduled aggressively but it just hasn't played out in their favor, with Ole Miss struggling in particular. That Albany series is also a major drain on their RPI, as the Great Danes are just 4-22-1, so those three games are killing Maryland.
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Spencer: How many bids does the Big Ten look like they will get? With Iowa struggling in conference play is this turning into a one-bid league?
Kendall Rogers: Spencer -- great question. Indiana would most certainly be in if the season ended today, and I think the league would get one more team in no matter what. Michigan State could be that team and I still have confidence Iowa and Maryland can finish strong. Nebraska's RPI is the really, really odd one to me. At 112, it pretty much has zero shot outside of winning the Big Ten Tournament.
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Matt M: New to college baseball.....could you briefly explain the major differences between your rankings and RPI? Why is a team like Dallas Baptist with a high RPI not ranked -- or conversely, what is it you see in a team like Texas Tech with a low RPI and a high ranking?
Aaron Fitt: Part of it is that we place a lot of value on the high end of a team’s resumé when constructing our rankings — we care about winning series against quality teams, and we don’t really care if you also swept a series against a 4-22 team in nonconference. But the RPI will crush you if you happen to play a 4-22 team for three games — your opponent’s record has an outsized impact on the RPI rankings, which is one of the reasons that is an imperfect tool. We value series wins greatly because that is a great indicator of a team’s ability to win in the postseason, but the RPI doesn’t care about series wins, it treats all games the same, and if you go 1-2 on the road against a really good team, you often get rewarded in the RPI. Because we’re trying to rank the best teams, we blend resumés with talent as well, although as the season progresses the pendulum shifts more and more toward a team’s body of work, and less away from talent, because at some point you are what your record is.
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Brendan Bell: Of potential at-large candidates, which team do you feel like is the biggest RPI "victim" who's number is far below their body of work/performance so far?
Aaron Fitt: Maryland is one, as I mentioned above. Texas Tech is another -- they scheduled some quality nonconference opponents (Gonzaga, Iowa, Michigan, A&M, at Stanford) but they've been crushed by sweeping four games against Western Illinois (4-26) and taking two of three from North Dakota State (10-24). Another example of a handful of nonconference games against weak opponents undermining a body of work that is actually pretty impressive overall.
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Gary: With Nebraska having such a bad RPI, do they need to win the Big Ten regular season to secure an at-large bid?
Kendall Rogers: Gary -- Nebraska will pretty much need to win the Big Ten Tournament at this rate to make the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunate, but that's the situation right now.
