Let me first make a couple of disclaimers:
1. Real estate is extremely local. The crash of 2007-2009 ravaged Las Vegas, Phoenix, and parts of California, while the rest of the country did not see huge price depreciations.
2. There is a somewhat unprecedented confluence of events: pandemic, low interest rates, low inventory, people buying more house due to work from home, etc.
But what I am currently seeing makes very little sense. We live in Arizona and have been in our house for a shade over four years. If we listed the house tomorrow, we would likely have multiple offers at 40-50% of our purchase price with appraisal waived. Zillow projects home prices in our zip code to increase around 13% over the next 12 months. Our market is different from most in that we are a warm weather destination, and we have a number of people fleeing California, which is diminishing supply and driving up price.
Many say that there is no "bubble" for the following reasons:
1. The irresponsible pre-2007 lending practices are no more.
2. 80% of the homes being sold are primary residences. Prior to the crash, only about 40% of homes sold in this market were primary residences.
That said, I still see many people getting way out over their skis, and could foresee a "mini-crash" or correction of 15-20% within the next few years.
I know there are similar situations in sought-after warm weather, non-California locations such as Austin, TX, parts of Florida, Atlanta, etc.
Curious to know if some of the people on this board who are smarter than I and who study this closer, seem to think these prices can continue to go up and up?
1. Real estate is extremely local. The crash of 2007-2009 ravaged Las Vegas, Phoenix, and parts of California, while the rest of the country did not see huge price depreciations.
2. There is a somewhat unprecedented confluence of events: pandemic, low interest rates, low inventory, people buying more house due to work from home, etc.
But what I am currently seeing makes very little sense. We live in Arizona and have been in our house for a shade over four years. If we listed the house tomorrow, we would likely have multiple offers at 40-50% of our purchase price with appraisal waived. Zillow projects home prices in our zip code to increase around 13% over the next 12 months. Our market is different from most in that we are a warm weather destination, and we have a number of people fleeing California, which is diminishing supply and driving up price.
Many say that there is no "bubble" for the following reasons:
1. The irresponsible pre-2007 lending practices are no more.
2. 80% of the homes being sold are primary residences. Prior to the crash, only about 40% of homes sold in this market were primary residences.
That said, I still see many people getting way out over their skis, and could foresee a "mini-crash" or correction of 15-20% within the next few years.
I know there are similar situations in sought-after warm weather, non-California locations such as Austin, TX, parts of Florida, Atlanta, etc.
Curious to know if some of the people on this board who are smarter than I and who study this closer, seem to think these prices can continue to go up and up?