Do you see a way Iowa could lose to Illinois??

[BUCKSNDUCKS]

I think the IOwa offense has to be better than it was last week at Wisc. CJ has to have more time to throw than it did last sat. Canzeri and company will have a great day. The defense will be on fire and pinning it's ears back and ready to make a huge statement. I see King with another int, and Mabin is due for one. I don't see Iowa getting beat like NEbraska did on the long balls. Those should turn into ints, IF the corners turn around and look for the ball. Hawks - 28 - Ill 13

 

[Gridiron24]

Absolutely we can lose on Saturday.

Everybody we've played is a running team (Pitt, Wisconsin, Illinois St) or a passing team that sucks at offense (Iowa State, North Texas). We haven't faced anyone who can effectively throw the ball. Wes Lunt has a cannon for an arm, and if his receivers can get separation, they will gash us in the vertical passing game. I've seen enough Iowa football games to know that our safeties get exposed by teams with fast receivers. We're improved from the days of Tanner Miller, but we don't have Ed Reed back there either. Desmond King is a surefire NFL draft pick and should be able to lock-down Illinois' best receiver. If we have a defensive weakness, it's Greg Mabin.

tl;dr: Illinois could beat us by throwing vertically at Greg Mabin

 

[naturalbornhawk]

As has been mentioned in earlier threads: this is Iowa Football. There is legitimate concern we could lose any game.

 

[ichawk24]

Any team can lose any week.

But Iowa shall crush Illinois.

 

[StormHawk42]

Turnovers. We seem to have a bit of fumblitis this year.

 

[uniFIGHTuniFIGHT]

Lunt is easily the best quarterback we've seen so far and it's not like we've been getting consistent pressure on the quarterback.

 

[stillh8unlv]

There is a chance Illinois could score more points than Iowa, that'd be one way.

 

[22*43*51]

I'm not a mathamagician, but I believe if we score less points we will earn an loss.

 

[FanGuru]

Here is how I actually feel. No way we lose this game. Im not sure what other people are seeing, but Illinois has not impressed me. They got BLOWN out against North Carolina and won a close game against a Nebraska. A game they had no business winning. Yes, they like to pass. Their WRs drop a lot of balls, thats a problem. I believe this is good for Iowa, they get to focus on stopping the QB. They wont have much of a run game and will rely on the pass heavily. This will cause turnovers, and it will happen. Iowa is going to be playing with a lot of solid field position in this game. A lot of fans are saying "one game at a time." I dont buy into that, considering we have no control over this. That is Kirks job to address to the players. Im worried about northwestern, this is going to be the game of the year. Vegas has Iowa at -11, thats a lot of points for an Iowa team. Speaks volumes, at least to me. Their stud RB being out helps too. Im going to enjoy some solid all around football this weekend.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

I'm not a mathamagician, but I believe if we score less points we will earn an loss.

I'm going to take it a step further and make the bold statement that if Iowa scores fewer points than Illinois, I GUARANTEE YOU that Iowa will lose. You can take that to the bank!

 

[MadDogC]

I think the IOwa offense has to be better than it was last week at Wisc. CJ has to have more time to throw than it did last sat. Canzeri and company will have a great day. The defense will be on fire and pinning it's ears back and ready to make a huge statement. I see King with another int, and Mabin is due for one. I don't see Iowa getting beat like NEbraska did on the long balls. Those should turn into ints, IF the corners turn around and look for the ball. Hawks - 28 - Ill 13

They have been dropping 10% of their passes this year. With our luck their receivers will have a hot day against us...edit to add a source...
@hawkeyegamefilm: ILL pass catchers let Lunt down pretty reg, two diff charting sources have'm at ~10% drops on 200ish attempts, very high number of drops

 

[BulliesOfTheBigTen]

If Wes Lunt has time to throw the ball he will scorch our defense. The primary focus should be getting pressure on the quarterback. Might need to blitz more often than usual. Get him thinking a bit.

 

[Kinnick4Ever]

Now that Iowa has won five games--at least two of which could have been losses--some fans seem inclined to over-rate this team. The Hawks play hard and determined football but they absolutely must do it every time out--and avoid costly mistakes and injuries in the process. Every game from here on out will likely be a dog fight and nothing we've seen on the field suggests this team is blessed with enough talent to just show up and expect to win. A loss to Illinois would not be a shocker but it would almost certainly send many unrealistic fans into a free-fall of depression. It shouldn't. There are bound to be a couple of disappointments along with joyous successes before this season is confined to the history books.

 

[22*43*51]

I remember this thread.

It was on Nebraska's board last week.

 

[pamarcole]

I've seen it to many times weather it be basketball or football ...break into the top 25 this week and get knocked out the next! Don't get me wrong I hope we wax'em ....but ya just never know!

 

[icwesthawk]

Yes, by thinking there's no way we can lose to Illinois.

 

[Bill_Callahan2.0]

I remember this thread.

It was on Nebraska's board last week.

 

[icu81222]

I don't believe Illinois will be able to run the ball. Thus making them one dimensional. That isn't good for them.

I also don't eleven they will be able to stop the run. Thus making CJB extremely dangerous for them.

Those are bad combinations for them.

 

[soybean]

I remember this thread.

It was on Nebraska's board last week.

Exactly what I was gonna say.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I should be amazed (but I'm not) at how quickly the conversations changed from total despair over the steaming pile of dung that is the Iowa football program to talk of championships and the impossibility of losing to a 4-1 Illinois team that just beat Nebraska. And, this is after the Hawks pilled up an impressive 77 yards through the air against a team with 2 losses, and we now have only 1 healthy, experienced running back.

I think the D can keep them under 20, but what if CJ throws a pick 6? Now we need to score 25+ points against a team that held Nebraska to 13.

The ball has bounced our way for the most part this year, but the Bouncing Ball is an evil prick. We can absolutely lose this game. To say otherwise is pretty arrogant.

 

[Bill_Callahan2.0]

Hawk_4shur, that was a really good post

 

[Hawk-A-Doodle-Doo]

Exactly what I was gonna say.

Precisely.

This time last week, did anyone see any way that Purdue would be able to stay within 3 points of the #2 team in the nation on its home field...and have the ball in their hands with a chance to win at the end?

This time last week did anyone see ANY way that Indiana...INDIANA FOOTBALL (not basketball)....could move up and down the field and stay within 7 points of the #1 team in the country, and have the ball at the doorstep of forcing overtime on the last play of the game?

This time last week, did Wisconsin fans see any way Iowa comes into Camp Randall and comes away with a win and keeps them out of the end zone for the entire game??

This is the Big Ten. There is ALWAYS a way and a chance for one team to beat another.

 

[BUCKSNDUCKS]

Not arragant - I think this team has an air of optimism?? There is something definately different about this team, then the ones from previous years, in my opinion.. It is like they have something to prove .

 

[Besthawkfan]

Absolutely we can lose on Saturday.

Everybody we've played is a running team (Pitt, Wisconsin, Illinois St) or a passing team that sucks at offense (Iowa State, North Texas). We haven't faced anyone who can effectively throw the ball. Wes Lunt has a cannon for an arm, and if his receivers can get separation, they will gash us in the vertical passing game. I've seen enough Iowa football games to know that our safeties get exposed by teams with fast receivers. We're improved from the days of Tanner Miller, but we don't have Ed Reed back there either. Desmond King is a surefire NFL draft pick and should be able to lock-down Illinois' best receiver. If we have a defensive weakness, it's Greg Mabin.

tl;dr: Illinois could beat us by throwing vertically at Greg Mabin

Maybin will not be the problem unless he gets a couple of them 15 yard penalties.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

I think the IOwa offense has to be better than it was last week at Wisc. CJ has to have more time to throw than it did last sat. Canzeri and company will have a great day. The defense will be on fire and pinning it's ears back and ready to make a huge statement. I see King with another int, and Mabin is due for one. I don't see Iowa getting beat like NEbraska did on the long balls. Those should turn into ints, IF the corners turn around and look for the ball. Hawks - 28 - Ill 13

Yeah if they score more points than us

 

[bagdropper]

Of course it can happen...lots of turnovers, injuries, dumb luck.

But if Iowa shows up and (forgive me Ferentz haters) executes efficiently, we win this game, most likely handily.

 

[MitchL]

Dudek is out and that's a big loss for the passing game. Iowa should be able to control the clock. Plus... I guess the wind is going to gust 20+, so that helps Iowa more.

Iowa 24 Illini 13

 

[bagdropper]

Forecast is out of the SW 5 to 15...which is a lot less than last week in Madison.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I should be amazed (but I'm not) at how quickly the conversations changed from total despair over the steaming pile of dung that is the Iowa football program to talk of championships and the impossibility of losing to a 4-1 Illinois team that just beat Nebraska. And, this is after the Hawks pilled up an impressive 77 yards through the air against a team with 2 losses, and we now have only 1 healthy, experienced running back.

I think the D can keep them under 20, but what if CJ throws a pick 6? Now we need to score 25+ points against a team that held Nebraska to 13.

The ball has bounced our way for the most part this year, but the Bouncing Ball is an evil prick. We can absolutely lose this game. To say otherwise is pretty arrogant.

Nebraska has been able to move the ball pretty well between the 20s, but have had trouble getting TDs in the red-zone. That's exactly why their game was close against Southern Miss. Furthermore, on the season, Nebraska is sitting at -4 in the turnover margin (total, not per game) ... that is not a winning number given their overall inconsistency as a team. Against Illinois, they were -2 in turnover margin AND that was an away game! Both red-zone TD efficiency and turnover margin killed Nebraska against Illinois.

In contrast, Iowa's turnover margin, on paper, has been a rather neutral quantity. However, obviously the turnover margin was significant for us against BOTH Pitt and Wisconsin. As for red-zone TD efficiency - the Hawks have actually been pretty decent in that category. Against a strong Wisconsin D in a hostile environment - the Hawks obviously fared fairly poorly in the category ... however, before that, we were quite good.

As for any discussion about "luck" ... certain there can be inherent randomness within a football game. However, teams can also position themselves to "make their own luck." When a team pursues the ball well and swarms the ball ... not shockingly, they tend to fall more often on fumbles. When a team is playing faster - they tend to get to their target faster ... sometimes before the offensive player has been able to secure the ball. That means more dislodged passes and more forced fumbles. Without doubt, the fact that Canzeri's fumble squirted right to Croston definitely does seem somewhat lucky. However, it's not like the Hawks weren't on the receiving end of bad luck in that game either.

 

[wildturkey2]

If they look ahead to the northwestern game...............Or just over look

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Lunt is easily the best quarterback we've seen so far and it's not like we've been getting consistent pressure on the quarterback.

Ask yourself, why is that?

Part of it is attributable to Iowa's defensive objective ... against most opponents, they're going to scheme to take away the run first. Thus, they're going to be disciplined with their gap assignments and controlled in their pass-rush.

Against North Texas, we didn't get a ton of pressure because their QB got rid of the ball so quickly. It's hard to reach the QB after only 2 or 3 seconds.

However, I'd argue that one of the biggest reasons for any lack of consistency in the pass-rush has been due to Ott's health. Ott seems to be improving health-wise through each and every week. He was A LOT more disruptive against Wisconsin than he was against North Texas. A healthy Drew Ott, with the rust all knocked off, is a force on the DL ... and will be able to open up more opportunities for his teammates.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

Sure, if Iowa turns it over 10 times

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

They have been dropping 10% of their passes this year. With our luck their receivers will have a hot day against us...edit to add a source...
@hawkeyegamefilm: ILL pass catchers let Lunt down pretty reg, two diff charting sources have'm at ~10% drops on 200ish attempts, very high number of drops

This really isn't that surprising of a stat. Between the graduation of Barr and their top TEs (Davis and LaCosse) and the injuries to Dudek and Hardee ... the Illini are a little short on experienced pass-catchers. With Ferguson out, that leaves Allison as the only really experienced returning pass-catcher from last year.

Murdock, Cain, and Turner are the Illini's emerging "new faces" ... Murdock and Turner are both sophomores, while Cain is a freshman. Younger guys tend to drop balls more frequently.

Interestingly, if you look at Iowa's top returning pass-catchers who are healthy enough to play Saturday - essentially all of them are juniors or seniors. Thus, while there have obviously been issues with respect to getting separation ... that's part of the reason why guys have been pretty consistent catching balls.

 

[Banks Fan]

There is only one way we can lose to the Biting Ilini tomorrow. We lose by scoring fewer points than they score. That's it!

 

[SDHawkDoc]

The implication of the OP is just plain nutty.
Of course there is a way the Hawks could lose this game. There are lots of ways, as has been pointed out in many of the preceding posts.
I think there are more scenarios favoring Iowa winning.
But, it isn't hard at all to come up with things going illanoy's way that would tip the scales in their favor.

 

[IACub]

Why are people making Wes Lunt out to be Joe Montana?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Why are people making Wes Lunt out to be Joe Montana?

I think that it is because he was able to earn the starting job at Oklahoma State as a freshman ... and didn't lose it until he got injured. You don't do that unless you're good ... really good.

Thus, he's a guy who is capable of beating you with his arm. Fortunately, football is a team sport ... and he cannot beat us all by himself. His WRs actually have to catch the balls thrown to him. His OL has to be able to block so that he can have an adequate opportunity to throw the ball.

Part of what impacted Iowa's D against North Texas was tempo. Illinois will be able to use tempo against our D as well. Of course, Illinois has a number of young WRs ... and young guys are more prone to drop balls.

 

[icu81222]

I should be amazed (but I'm not) at how quickly the conversations changed from total despair over the steaming pile of dung that is the Iowa football program to talk of championships and the impossibility of losing to a 4-1 Illinois team that just beat Nebraska. And, this is after the Hawks pilled up an impressive 77 yards through the air against a team with 2 losses, and we now have only 1 healthy, experienced running back.

I think the D can keep them under 20, but what if CJ throws a pick 6? Now we need to score 25+ points against a team that held Nebraska to 13.

The ball has bounced our way for the most part this year, but the Bouncing Ball is an evil prick. We can absolutely lose this game. To say otherwise is pretty arrogant.

You realize Iowa handed them one of those 2 losses, right? Their only loss before that was versus Alabama and they played with them for a good portion of that game.

I haven't seen anyone saying Iowa CANNOT lose this game.

Haven't seen you around here for 5 weeks.. Kinda weird huh?

 

[revkev73]

It is easy to get a bogey after a birdie...

But, I don't see Iowa losing this one, players seem united behind the new QB, KF seems into coaching again, at home, players are motivated...

Iowa stops the run, puts pressure on the Illinois QB...mistakes...

27-10 Iowa...

 

[icu81222]