Does Harris get a bump in the polls?

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I think she won the debate. Pretty clear to me, goaded him and he took the bait.

I think the race is pretty locked in and movement will be negligible but in a close race it matters. I'd say she gets around a 1 pt bump in the composites over the next week or so.

 

[Franisdaman]

I think she won the debate. Pretty clear to me, goaded him and he took the bait.

I think the race is pretty locked in and movement will be negligible but in a close race it matters. I'd say she gets around a 1 pt bump in the composites over the next week or so.

I would be shocked if Harris does not win. She destroyed him last night.

 

[artradley]

The538 currently shows her with a 2.7% lead. We can check back in a week. I don’t see her getting a bump, people are not making their decisions on anything as mundane as who is more calm, rational, and intelligent.

 

[mthawkeyes]

Imagine listening to that guy for just 5 to 10 minutes and thinking, "He's got the solutions to our problems." Now imagine living in a country where almost half of the adults think that and can't be persuaded otherwise. What a time to be alive!

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I would be shocked if Harris does not win. She destroyed him last night.

It's gonna be close but she certainly helped herself last night.

I think she's obviously the favorite at this point barring any unforeseen events between now and the election.

 

[noleclone2]

I am not sure the polls really work at this point since so many people screen phone calls but in reality she for sure won some voters and he for sure lost some. The overall trend is very positive for Harris. I think we are entering the zone too where the last set of undecided voters who pick based on who they think will win (bandwagon voters) will break for her.

 

[StormHawk42]

I think she’ll get a +1 national bump. This really is about Harris getting people to vote for her vs the couch. She’s not peeling away any Trump voters or “independents” who already lean Trump.

I’m not sure how polls quantify that. Although the fundraising and enthusiasm polls are helpful I suppose.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I am not sure the polls really work at this point since so many people screen phone calls but in reality she for sure won some voters and he for sure lost some. The overall trend is very positive for Harris. I think we are entering the zone too where the last set of undecided voters who pick based on who they think will win (bandwagon voters) will break for her.

Agree but once again a lot depends on what happens between now and the election.

I could see an unforeseen event influencing the election.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

The538 currently shows her with a 2.7% lead. We can check back in a week. I don’t see her getting a bump, people are not making their decisions on anything as mundane as who is more calm, rational, and intelligent.

My $$ is on her getting up to around 3.5% in a week or two.

 

[Franisdaman]

My $$ is on her getting up to around 3.5% in a week or two.

it will be interesting to see what the battle ground states look like

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

it will be interesting to see what the battle ground states look like

They'll remain in the "margin of error" region IMO, but she gets a bump.

 

[BioHawk]

Doubtful. Polling has stayed remarkably close regardless of what happens in the real world.

 

[DooBi]

She's going to win in a landslide imo.

 

[VodkaSam]

Harris needs the undecideds. I saw on TV last night that 92% of the undecideds thought Harris won the debates. That’s huge. As someone else said following that news, you can’t get 92% of the people to agree on free beer.

 

[HROT]

My $$ is on her getting up to around 3.5% in a week or two.

That’s overly optimistic (or pessimistic on your side).

The largest swing in any poll following a debate has been sub 2%.

I don’t think they can accurately measure impact (eg reduced enthusiasm, donations etc). But it certainly might be the viewed in hindsight as the beginning of the end

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Harris needs the undecideds. I saw on TV last night that 92% of the undecideds thought Harris won the debates. That’s huge. As someone else said following that news, you can’t get 92% of the people to agree on free beer.

If that's the case, that's huge.

 

[artradley]

Harris needs the undecideds. I saw on TV last night that 92% of the undecideds thought Harris won the debates.

Nice link.

 

[VodkaSam]

Nice link.

Sorry… like I said, I heard it on TV. Same place Trump got his intel on immigrants eating everyone’s pets throughout our country.

 

[joelbc1]

Follow the $$… I think her treasury will receive a huge bump post debate. Think of all the lawyers Trump could have paid with this money!

 

[franklinman]

Nice link.

Saw that, HARRIS was chosen to be the winner in ERIE, Penna last night among undecided. These areas help to add, when the big cities are counted.

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

I think she won the debate. Pretty clear to me, goaded him and he took the bait.

I think the race is pretty locked in and movement will be negligible but in a close race it matters. I'd say she gets around a 1 pt bump in the composites over the next week or so.

Probably a tiny one. But we will never know because I think the Swift endorsement is more impactful and will bump up her Gen Z support.

 

[Rifler]

Harris needs the undecideds. I saw on TV last night that 92% of the undecideds thought Harris won the debates. That’s huge. As someone else said following that news, you can’t get 92% of the people to agree on free beer.

Understand that it's entirely possible to feel that she won the debate and still not like her politics,.. That's where I'm at.

 

[Huey Grey]

Polls are irrelevant. She's winning in November. Polls don't vote. People do. And people are tired of Trump.

 

[bunsen82]

You still have around 2 months til the election. In my opinion there are still some things that could sway the election. The economy begins to slow quickly. This is not a base case, but the economy is cooling, could it accelerate, it could and if so could sway some to the republican side. There is also the possibility of a major international event. This could really go either way. As it stands, Harris is in the lead, but 2 months ago I would have told you Trump would be our next president. Things can move quickly in politics.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

No bump; may influence turnout on both sides.

Long 8 weeks left.

 

[Tom Paris]

I think she won the debate. Pretty clear to me, goaded him and he took the bait.

I think the race is pretty locked in and movement will be negligible but in a close race it matters. I'd say she gets around a 1 pt bump in the composites over the next week or so.

I doubt polls change. More important are things like Lawrence O'Donnell said last night. He commended her line about Poland. 800,000 people whose families immigrated here from Poland. If she can gain 10,000 more votes from that group she locks down Pennsylvania. Sadly, everything is about the electoral college. The other sad thing is that I would bet exactly ZERO MAGA voters would change their vote to her, even after seeing live she's more presidential than he is.

 

[Rifler]

"Presidential" is no longer the number one item on most voter shopping lists,... Our current condition has pushed us beyond the need for such niceties...