ADVERTISEMENT

Early Top 25 Prediction

owenhawk

HB All-American
Dec 6, 2004
3,070
4,749
113
Iowa, Cedar Rapids
Beat writer for the Big East just curious in thoughts seeing Iowa’s ranking.

Brad Cavallaro (@BradCav2)
4/7/19, 2:22 PM
Too Early top 25, Unc moves in if/when they get Anthony. Will change w/NBA/transfers

1 UK
2 UVA
3 MSU
4 Mich
5 Miss St
6 Ariz
7 FSU
8 Duke w/Tre
9 Iowa
10 Oregon
11 Cinci
12 Mary
13 Creigh
14 SH
15 KU
16 Fla
17 Marq
18 Utah St
19 VCU
20 OSU
21 TT
22 Baylor
23 Hou
24 Xav
25 NCST
 
  • Like
Reactions: VicHawkeye
Maybe he is REALLY high on Joe T, since he is from the east coast, and he is expecting @iamTC25 to return?? :)
 
Maybe he is REALLY high on Joe T, since he is from the east coast, and he is expecting @iamTC25 to return?? :)

Yeah, I am expecting that it is with the belief that Cook will be back.

I am guessing if he did comeback, we will see a lot of Iowa in the 10 - 15 range and if he leaves, will be more in the 20 - 25 range.
 
Not so sure that Cook is a well enough known player / factor to the outside folks making predictions.

They will look at overall returning players, and incoming recruits quality.

IF they take the time to look at Cook's ppg, then maybe that will affect their shitty predictions a little.
 
Not so sure that Cook is a well enough known player / factor to the outside folks making predictions.

They will look at overall returning players, and incoming recruits quality.

IF they take the time to look at Cook's ppg, then maybe that will affect their shitty predictions a little.

Honestly, when I talk to people that are not Iowa fans but follow basketball somewhat but are not following them like people on here, Tyler Cook is usually the only name they know. They see Tyler's dunks on Sportscenter or Big Ten Network highlights and Tyler has been propped up as "the guy" for Iowa over the the past few years by national media when Iowa has a game on ESPN or wherever. So I think it's possible that this beat writer knows Cook and not much else but understands that Iowa has 95% of their production coming back from a team that made the 2nd Round.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TritonHawkeye
Cook's conference advanced metrics tell the truth. His player efficiency rating is only 16.7 and a WS/40 of only .072 in conference play.

His total, including non-conference opponents, was a solid PER of 19.3 and WS/40 of .122.

He did well in non-conference play but was below average in Big Ten play. For all the things he does well, his liabilities including, inability to shoot, poor FT average, below average defense and a high turnover rate, made him an average player at best.

He won't be as difficult to replace as some believe. Some may point to his energy like the second half vs Tennessee but his poor play in the first half of the Tenn and Cincy games was largely responsible for the large deficits Iowa incurred.

Secondly, his style of play contrasts with the rest of the roster. He can be a black hole when he receives the ball without the ability to pass out to open shooters. Players like Nunge with more range will be able to spread the floor more. Nunge should be ideal in the pick and role because unlike Garza, he can handle the ball and unlike Cook, he can hit the 15 footer.

If Cook is back I think he'll add value and the type of skill set we don't have elsewhere on the roster but I also feel comfortable with Nunge, Pemsl, Garza and Kriener handling the 4-5 spots.
 
Cook's conference advanced metrics tell the truth. His player efficiency rating is only 16.7 and a WS/40 of only .072 in conference play.

His total, including non-conference opponents, was a solid PER of 19.3 and WS/40 of .122.

He did well in non-conference play but was below average in Big Ten play. For all the things he does well, his liabilities including, inability to shoot, poor FT average, below average defense and a high turnover rate, made him an average player at best.

He won't be as difficult to replace as some believe. Some may point to his energy like the second half vs Tennessee but his poor play in the first half of the Tenn and Cincy games was largely responsible for the large deficits Iowa incurred.

Secondly, his style of play contrasts with the rest of the roster. He can be a black hole when he receives the ball without the ability to pass out to open shooters. Players like Nunge with more range will be able to spread the floor more. Nunge should be ideal in the pick and role because unlike Garza, he can handle the ball and unlike Cook, he can hit the 15 footer.

Great post! Agree with pretty much everything. The perception by anyone outside the Iowa fanbase (and a decent majority of the Iowa fanbase, especially the more casual fans) is that Cook will be a devastating loss for Iowa and that will knock them down in the National and Big Ten preseason predictions. But like you, I think his absence will lead to a much more efficient and consistent offense for Iowa.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CP84
Honestly, when I talk to people that are not Iowa fans but follow basketball somewhat but are not following them like people on here, Tyler Cook is usually the only name they know. They see Tyler's dunks on Sportscenter or Big Ten Network highlights and Tyler has been propped up as "the guy" for Iowa over the the past few years by national media when Iowa has a game on ESPN or wherever. So I think it's possible that this beat writer knows Cook and not much else but understands that Iowa has 95% of their production coming back from a team that made the 2nd Round.

It actually seemed like Bohannon was the guy with the media attention this year, especially with all the late game heroics down the stretch.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2432Hawk
It actually seemed like Bohannon was the guy with the media attention this year, especially with all the late game heroics down the stretch.

I know that definitely came on later in the year with his clutch shooting but whenever you would watch a game on ESPN or something over the past few years, you would often see Cook as the "highlighted" player that they would focus on as their "best player" and his ferocious dunks, etc.

And I have some friends that are not Hawkeye fans but are somewhat college basketball fans and Cook would always be the first person they talked about.
 
Iowa will not be in the preseason rankings in either of the major polls. There is no way in heck Iowa gets the benefit of the doubt in any way, shape or form. They will have to earn their way up the rankings ladder.

If Cook is back, I would take that bet in a heartbeat. If he is not, I can see the national media knocking them out to "receiving votes" but also wouldn't be surprised if they were in the bottom half.
 
Wow. No. 9? Cook or no Cook, that's astonishing to me. After all, we're just Iowa. . .

get me across the poker table from that guy... #9?... please.

Iowa will not be in the preseason rankings in either of the major polls.

Oh, ye of little faith.

I like Iowa better when we're under appreciated preseason, but we'll get enough attention that we're going to have to earn the ranking we are given.
 
Sporting News just put out their projection, which assumes Cook is gone, and has Iowa at #21.
 
  • Like
Reactions: owenhawk
Honestly, when I talk to people that are not Iowa fans but follow basketball somewhat but are not following them like people on here, Tyler Cook is usually the only name they know. They see Tyler's dunks on Sportscenter or Big Ten Network highlights and Tyler has been propped up as "the guy" for Iowa over the the past few years by national media when Iowa has a game on ESPN or wherever. So I think it's possible that this beat writer knows Cook and not much else but understands that Iowa has 95% of their production coming back from a team that made the 2nd Round.

I'd say that was probably true before this last season. Now however, I think there is a lot of folks that are very familiar with Mr. Clutch (Jordan Bohannon) as well as Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp.

If we do bring back our starting 5, please come back @iamTC25 as you've put the time in thru the building of something special.... don't miss out on the culmination of all that hard work!

I really really want to see Joe Toussaint and Tyler Cook doing some magic! Be nice to have a penetrating guard that is going to free Cook up along the baseline. People in other threads wondering why we don't see as much of the alley oops like we saw with Aaron White... probably more to do with no Mike Gesell and Anthony Clemmons than anything else.
 
  • Like
Reactions: owenhawk
Iowa will not be in the preseason rankings in either of the major polls. There is no way in heck Iowa gets the benefit of the doubt in any way, shape or form. They will have to earn their way up the rankings ladder.

Which is really easy to do in basketball. It was a quick jump to the top 15 we made in November. In football, you have to shuffle your way up.
 
Cook's conference advanced metrics tell the truth. His player efficiency rating is only 16.7 and a WS/40 of only .072 in conference play.

His total, including non-conference opponents, was a solid PER of 19.3 and WS/40 of .122.

He did well in non-conference play but was below average in Big Ten play. For all the things he does well, his liabilities including, inability to shoot, poor FT average, below average defense and a high turnover rate, made him an average player at best.

He won't be as difficult to replace as some believe. Some may point to his energy like the second half vs Tennessee but his poor play in the first half of the Tenn and Cincy games was largely responsible for the large deficits Iowa incurred.

Secondly, his style of play contrasts with the rest of the roster. He can be a black hole when he receives the ball without the ability to pass out to open shooters. Players like Nunge with more range will be able to spread the floor more. Nunge should be ideal in the pick and role because unlike Garza, he can handle the ball and unlike Cook, he can hit the 15 footer.

If Cook is back I think he'll add value and the type of skill set we don't have elsewhere on the roster but I also feel comfortable with Nunge, Pemsl, Garza and Kriener handling the 4-5 spots.

Some very good points, but the one that we would mostly miss is the ability of Tyler Cook to put pressure on other teams bigs... and that he drew so many fouls we often got to do work against the other teams backup post players.
 
Some very good points, but the one that we would mostly miss is the ability of Tyler Cook to put pressure on other teams bigs... and that he drew so many fouls we often got to do work against the other teams backup post players.

You might end up being right. Without Cook, I am expecting more crisp passing and ball movement with the ball getting a lot less bogged down and dominated by Cook in a bad position. I would like to see the ball go through Garza and Wieskamp most of the time and I feel like that is way more likely without Cook. I think the pick and pop can now work better with Garza, Nunge and Kreiner all able to hit from 15 - 20 feet. Also, Nunge's shooting (hopefully) will spread the floor more because he will have to be accounted for on the perimeter. We will have 3 viable low-post scorers in Garza, Kreiner, and Pemsl.

Overall, I just think we will see a much more efficient and balanced offense with a lot of versatile Offensive options and rotations. I do hope Fran and the team emboldens Wieskamp to step forward as that alpha-dog. Having him and Garza as that Offensive 1-2 punch with the other weapons would be very productive I believe.

My much bigger concern then losing Cook our SG (and to a lesser extent finding another Guard who can penetrate and get in the lane - which I know we all hope Joe T can be that guy).
 
Iowa will not be in the preseason rankings in either of the major polls. There is no way in heck Iowa gets the benefit of the doubt in any way, shape or form. They will have to earn their way up the rankings ladder.

I bet that they are in every preseason ranking. Top 10 seems a bit high but they will be between 10-20 in all of them.
 
You might end up being right. Without Cook, I am expecting more crisp passing and ball movement with the ball getting a lot less bogged down and dominated by Cook in a bad position. I would like to see the ball go through Garza and Wieskamp most of the time and I feel like that is way more likely without Cook. I think the pick and pop can now work better with Garza, Nunge and Kreiner all able to hit from 15 - 20 feet. Also, Nunge's shooting (hopefully) will spread the floor more because he will have to be accounted for on the perimeter. We will have 3 viable low-post scorers in Garza, Kreiner, and Pemsl.

Overall, I just think we will see a much more efficient and balanced offense with a lot of versatile Offensive options and rotations. I do hope Fran and the team emboldens Wieskamp to step forward as that alpha-dog. Having him and Garza as that Offensive 1-2 punch with the other weapons would be very productive I believe.

My much bigger concern then losing Cook our SG (and to a lesser extent finding another Guard who can penetrate and get in the lane - which I know we all hope Joe T can be that guy).

Gara and Wieskamp are going to have to improve their games if you want the ball flowing thru them. Cook gets beat up too much about being a black hole. Garza is more of a black hole than Cook was. Luka really needs to improve that part of his game with or without Cook back.

This past year assist leaders.
1. J. Bohannon 118
2. C. McCaffery 102
3. T. Cook 80
4. I. Moss 62
5. N. Baer 44
6. J. Wieskamp 39
7. M. Dailey 30
8. L. Garza 28
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawksfor3
Jon Crispin of BTN last nite said Iowa could shock folks being a top ten team next year, presumably with Tyler.
I think some fans greatly underestimate the impact of Tyler's leaving.
He was the alpha dog other teams had to game plan around.
He got opponents in early foul trouble that allowed us to lead the nation in free throws...which was the main thrust of our offense.
He was the only guy on our team that could break his defender down and get his own shot. Next year the offense could easily be a pass around the perimeter type of look with desperation last second shots the norm.
Who will command a double team next year?We will not have a single guy who will be able to just elevate over his defender and finish at the rim. No explosive player left without Tyler. ..vanilla team easy to defend with straight up defense.
We needed Tyler to return to have a chance at a.special year.
 
Anywhere from 10-25 would not surprise me, with or without TC. If TC returns and has worked out his two most fatal weaknesses: poor defensive position and far too many turnovers for a guy that has the ball then Iowa will be a much better team.

If TC leaves and everyone else shows normal improvement and either or both the Big C or Jack are ready to be quality starters on a NCAA team then we will also be a better team.
 
I am guessing that this prediction was based on TC coming back. That and the number of players returning. We are the only Round of 32 team with all 5 starters coming back... And the only one with 4 starters coming back.

Experience matters. Especially when it comes to the tournament. I am very much looking forward to next season! And the season afterwards as well. We will still have some really good returning players.
Love it


Oh, ye of little faith.

I like Iowa better when we're under appreciated preseason, but we'll get enough attention that we're going to have to earn the ranking we are given.
 
Last edited:
Gara and Wieskamp are going to have to improve their games if you want the ball flowing thru them. Cook gets beat up too much about being a black hole. Garza is more of a black hole than Cook was. Luka really needs to improve that part of his game with or without Cook back.

This past year assist leaders.
1. J. Bohannon 118
2. C. McCaffery 102
3. T. Cook 80
4. I. Moss 62
5. N. Baer 44
6. J. Wieskamp 39
7. M. Dailey 30
8. L. Garza 28

I do agree that Garza needs to improve this part of his game, as can Wieskamp. But I don't think the assist numbers alone explain the whole story.

Cook also had 92 TO's compared to 42 for Garza and 38 for Wieskamp. To put that in perspective, our starting PG who averaged the same amount of minutes as Cook only had 58 TO's.

Also, Garza only averaged 23 minutes and Wieskamp 27 minutes compared to Cook's 31 minutes per game. That could explain why Cook has more Assists BUT also why he would have had more TO's. But even more telling is that he only averaged a 1 point more then Garza in 8 more minutes a game and only 3 more points then Wieskamp in 4 more minutes.

Throw in there that Garza had better FG% then Cook even though he shot 72 3's at a poor 29% clip compared to only 6 3 pointers by Cook, then it is easy to see that Garza is by far our most reliable/efficient inside scorer on the team (and probably should be shooting less 3's). And Wieskamp, as G/F who shot 139 3's (at a very impressive 42%) compared to 6 for Cook, almost shot the same FG% as Cook. That just tells me Wieskamp should be getting a LOT more shots then he does.

For a guy who primarily ONLY dunks and shoots from 5 feet and in, Cook only shot 51%. That is NOT good for someone whose whole offensive game is that close to the basket. That tells me he should be shooting less.

Throw in there that Garza and Wieskamp are far superior FT shooters to Cook to the information I stated above, I want those guys getting the the majority of the shots over Cook,

All of this goes back to my belief that the offense will run much more freely, efficiently, and crisply without Cook bogging down the ball and killing the ball movement. That's not to say that Garza and Wieskamp can't do a better job of distributing the ball when the do get it but last year's stats show me at least that I want Garza and Wieskamp to be the first 2 options.
 
Jon Crispin of BTN last nite said Iowa could shock folks being a top ten team next year, presumably with Tyler.
I think some fans greatly underestimate the impact of Tyler's leaving.
He was the alpha dog other teams had to game plan around.
He got opponents in early foul trouble that allowed us to lead the nation in free throws...which was the main thrust of our offense.
He was the only guy on our team that could break his defender down and get his own shot. Next year the offense could easily be a pass around the perimeter type of look with desperation last second shots the norm.
Who will command a double team next year?We will not have a single guy who will be able to just elevate over his defender and finish at the rim. No explosive player left without Tyler. ..vanilla team easy to defend with straight up defense.
We needed Tyler to return to have a chance at a.special year.

I have a lot faith that Wieskamp is going to take a big step in developing his mid-range and dribble-drive game for next year to become the guy that we wished Cook could be and that Moss shows about once ever 8-10 games (and even then loses the ball or can’t finish a lot).

Wieskamp has seen what big-time basketball is about and will understand what he needs to work on to get to that next level. We know he has the drive and mental strength to bring that to fruition. Also, Wieskamp has the necessary athleticism to do this. Is he quite the high-flyer that Cook is, no but he has more then enough bounce and strength and we saw him finish tough shots in traffic more consistently then anyone on the team.
 
Gara and Wieskamp are going to have to improve their games if you want the ball flowing thru them. Cook gets beat up too much about being a black hole. Garza is more of a black hole than Cook was. Luka really needs to improve that part of his game with or without Cook back.

This past year assist leaders.
1. J. Bohannon 118
2. C. McCaffery 102
3. T. Cook 80
4. I. Moss 62
5. N. Baer 44
6. J. Wieskamp 39
7. M. Dailey 30
8. L. Garza 28

I do agree that Garza needs to improve this part of his game, as can Wieskamp. But I don't think the assist numbers alone explain the whole story.

Cook also had 92 TO's compared to 42 for Garza and 38 for Wieskamp. To put that in perspective, our starting PG who averaged the same amount of minutes as Cook only had 58 TO's.

Also, Garza only averaged 23 minutes and Wieskamp 27 minutes compared to Cook's 31 minutes per game. That could explain why Cook has more Assists BUT also why he would have had more TO's. But even more telling is that he only averaged a 1 point more then Garza in 8 more minutes a game and only 3 more points then Wieskamp in 4 more minutes.

Throw in there that Garza had better FG% then Cook even though he shot 72 3's at a poor 29% clip compared to only 6 3 pointers by Cook, then it is easy to see that Garza is by far our most reliable/efficient inside scorer on the team (and probably should be shooting less 3's). And Wieskamp, as G/F who shot 139 3's (at a very impressive 42%) compared to 6 for Cook, almost shot the same FG% as Cook. That just tells me Wieskamp should be getting a LOT more shots then he does.

For a guy who primarily ONLY dunks and shoots from 5 feet and in, Cook only shot 51%. That is NOT good for someone whose whole offensive game is that close to the basket. That tells me he should be shooting less.

Throw in there that Garza and Wieskamp are far superior FT shooters to Cook to the information I stated above, I want those guys getting the the majority of the shots over Cook,

All of this goes back to my belief that the offense will run much more freely, efficiently, and crisply without Cook bogging down the ball and killing the ball movement. That's not to say that Garza and Wieskamp can't do a better job of distributing the ball when the do get it but last year's stats show me at least that I want Garza and Wieskamp to be the first 2 options.

Again missing the key element that Cook brought that also resulted in his high turnover numbers and lower fg%.

He's asked to be a creator off the dribble drive.
 
Again missing the key element that Cook brought that also resulted in his high turnover numbers and lower fg%.

He's asked to be a creator off the dribble drive.

No I get it. I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t agree with that approach of Fran and Cook focusing on him being that type of player because the offense seemed to perform more poorly when that was the case. When Cook didn’t play or wasn’t focused like that, we saw a more efficient offense. Many times the flow was better, the ball wasn’t stagnant, etc. many times Garza and Kreiner played really well together.

Cook wants to be that type of player - and admittedly Fran accommodated him - but Cook doesn’t have the game for it. If Cook would use his athleticism to rebound and be that garbage man to clean-up misses and have them ball work through our more efficient offensive players, I think Cook’s value would be higher to the team and the team would be better and more dangerous.
 
No I get it. I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t agree with that approach of Fran and Cook focusing on him being that type of player because the offense seemed to perform more poorly when that was the case. When Cook didn’t play or /wasn’t focused like that, we saw a more efficient offense. Many times the flow was better, the ball wasn’t stagnant, etc. many times Garza and Kreiner played really well together.

Cook wants to be that type of player - and admittedly Fran accommodated him - but Cook doesn’t have the game for it. If Cook would use his athleticism to rebound and be that garbage man to clean-up misses and have them ball work through our more efficient offensive players, I think Cook’s value would be higher to the team and the team would be better and more dangerous.
Weren't quite a few convinced that we'd be better without Jok too?
 
Weren't quite a few convinced that we'd be better without Jok too?


Lmao, Jok had a conference WS/40 of .133 his senior year. Cook is .072.

Jok was the leading scorer in the Big 10.

Two different caliber players.

Also when Jok left we had a starting lineup of all freshmen and sophomores. It was going to take them time to develop. Next year we have a veteran rotation with depth.
 
  • Like
Reactions: owenhawk
Weren't quite a few convinced that we'd be better without Jok too?

CP84 answered it better then I could. One player has no relevance to the other. Cook is not Jok. I would trade Jok for Cook in a millisecond. Could you imagine having Jok with this team next year instead of Moss at SG and without Cook trying to be the main go-to offensive weapon?
 
  • Like
Reactions: hawkeyeguy69
The league had us scouted so well by the second half of the season Cook was not getting the bail deep in the like earlier,neither was Luka. Our guards were just not able to get it in there.
Tyler had to come out of the paint to get touches. Luka had to resort to lots of threes to get shots.
I hope I am wrong but I see the league having zero fear guarding anyone on our team next year with straight man to man.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ihawkhoops
The league had us scouted so well by the second half of the season Cook was not getting the bail deep in the like earlier,neither was Luka. Our guards were just not able to get it in there.
Tyler had to come out of the paint to get touches. Luka had to resort to lots of threes to get shots.
I hope I am wrong but I see the league having zero fear guarding anyone on our team next year with straight man to man.

What would be your prediction for Iowa in conference without Cook then?
 
Listened to a Jon Miller podcast yesterday where he and Deace were discussing Iowa being better without Cook. While I don't think I would like to hang out with either of these two guys, I do give them credit in that their takes are usually researched and thought out. I think they have the most insightful takes of any of the Iowa related podcast I listen to.

I have a hard time thinking Iowa will be better without Cook as a 4th year player. However, what kind of player would Cook be next year? If he focused exclusively on being a spectacular rebounder/defender and got most of his points close to the basket on offensive boards as well as free throws he may be able to average a double double that way. That player could help Iowa to being a top 15 type team.

On the flip side if he feels he has to show his ball skills prove he has an outside shot while playing 30 minutes a game, that player isn't going to help Iowa get more wins and may turn the ball over 100 times.

Either way, I am thrilled Iowa is getting some pre-season attention. This has to be a plus for recruiting. They will have an experienced team who has went through multiple ups and downs. They should be able to lean on this experience. They add experienced guys coming back in Nunge and Pemsl to relieve the loss of Cook. They add Joe T. I don't expect him to set the world on fire, but he is something they didn't have last year. The redshirt guard and Pat M. may be able to contribute something as well.

Losing Baer probably hurts most in leadership and guys will need to step up here. On the court I wasn't in love with him like some people. His hustle was great and when used in limited minutes very effective, but should be replaceable. While some fans were quick to jump on guys Cook or Moss for their mistakes, I thought Baer got a pass for some of his bonehead plays and weak defense. He was good at help defense and getting his hands in passing lanes but never closed out with high hands and was physically outmatched in straight up man to man. Anyway, that's probably more a rant against fans/some media reactions to Baer vs their reactions to other players.

But a top 10 preseason ranking. F YES! Let's embrace it and hope it translates into some positive momentum for the program instead of being "Aw shucks, we are just Iowa, we suck, we don't deserve this, wah,,wah..wah"
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT