ESPN Bracketology, Updated MARCH 13. IOWA is a 5 Seed in CHICAGO Regional. Bracket Matrix on MARCH 13 has IOWA a 5 Seed. #14 NET Ranking on March 13

Franisdaman

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indeed mid novenber was too early to be making bracketology predictions

I disagree.

On Nov 9, Michigan was considered a 1 seed & a national title contender; they vastly underperformed.

Maryland was considered a 5 seed on Nov 9 but they also underperformed and it resulted in their coach getting fired mid season.

Wisconsin & Iowa did much better than expected; Iowa, on Nov 9th, was considered a bubble team & one of the first 4 out. Now look at them.

As you can also see below, Purdue, Michigan State & Rutgers performed pretty much as expected.

Here's the comparison of Nov 9th to today of the B1G teams which were/are considered to be NCAA Tournament teams:

Nov 9:............................. March 12
Seed/Team......................Seed/Team.............................

1 Michigan............................12 Michigan (LAST 4 IN; in a play in game)
2 Purdue................................2 Purdue
3 Illinois.................................4 Illinois
4 Ohio State.........................7 Ohio State
5 Maryland...........................OUT
7 Michigan State.................7 Michigan State
7 Indiana..............................11 Indiana (LAST 4 BYES)
11 Rutgers (Last 4 In)........11 Rutgers (LAST 4 BYES)
...............................................3 Wisconsin
...............................................5 IOWA
 
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Franisdaman

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Here are the Current NET Rankings, Through March 12, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

1113PurdueBig Ten27-65-56-016-18-56-17-06-0
1414IowaBig Ten25-96-64-015-33-68-37-07-0
1515IllinoisBig Ten22-97-42-213-36-66-36-04-0
2425WisconsinBig Ten24-79-23-112-49-37-24-24-0
2626Ohio St.Big Ten19-115-61-213-35-55-56-13-0
3434MichiganBig Ten17-145-72-210-55-103-36-13-0
3636Michigan St.Big Ten22-125-65-312-35-98-26-13-0
3938IndianaBig Ten20-133-83-114-44-84-45-17-0
7778RutgersBig Ten18-134-90-114-36-63-44-25-1
8888Penn St.Big Ten14-171-103-210-52-103-55-24-0
9090MarylandBig Ten15-173-72-210-82-115-24-44-0
9191NorthwesternBig Ten14-163-82-29-61-112-35-26-0
108108MinnesotaBig Ten13-173-92-18-72-100-66-15-0
141141NebraskaBig Ten10-223-80-27-122-101-72-45-1
 
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Franisdaman

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As of MARCH 13, 12:48 am CT:


Good news for @MrsScrew !!!

Rutgers & Indiana continue to get one of the LAST 4 BYES.

Michigan is one of the LAST 4 IN (in a play in game).

Xavier (and Jack Nunge) are part of the FIRST 4 OUT.



Joe Lunardi has #5 Iowa in the MIDWEST (Chicago) Regional. He has Iowa starting out in Portland vs #12 South Dakota State with the winner getting #4 UCLA or #13 New Mexico State. So, if Iowa wins these 2 games in Portland, they advance to the Sweet 16 in Chicago.


He has these 9 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
5 IOWA
7 Ohio State
7 Michigan State
11 Rutgers (LAST 4 BYES)
11 Indiana (LAST 4 BYES)
12 Michigan (LAST 4 IN; in a play in game)


Bracket Matrix
, which currently combines the results of 131 brackets, has IOWA as a 5 Seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


IOWA (#14 NET Ranking on March 13)

3-6: Quad 1
8-3: Quad 2
7-0: Quad 3
7-0: Quad 4
............................................
25-9 Overall Record
===================



March 13 Nonconference Schedule Rank, out of 358 teams (per KenPom):
#27: Michigan
#322: Indiana
#325: IOWA
#355: Rutgers


March 13 OVERALL Schedule Rank, out of 358 teams (per KenPom):
#5: Michigan
#40: Indiana
#44: Rutgers
#54: IOWA


Quad 1 Records (thru March 12 Games):

6-6: Rutgers
5-10: Michigan
4-8: Indiana
3-6: IOWA


Team Rankings on March 13:

IOWA...........#14 NET, #13 KenPom

Michigan.......#34 NET, #33 KenPom
Indiana..........#39 NET, #38 KenPom
Rutgers..........#77 NET, #74 KenPom




The Full ESPN Bracket:


 

ssckelley

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I disagree.

On Nov 9, Michigan was considered a 1 seed & a national title contender; they vastly underperformed.

Maryland was considered a 5 seed on Nov 9 but they also underperformed and it resulted in their coach getting fired mid season.

Wisconsin & Iowa did much better than expected; Iowa, on Nov 9th, was considered a bubble team & one of the first 4 out. Now look at them.

As you can also see below, Purdue, Michigan State & Rutgers performed pretty much as expected.

Here's the comparison of Nov 9th to today of the B1G teams which were/are considered to be NCAA Tournament teams:

Nov 9:............................. March 12
Seed/Team......................Seed/Team.............................

1 Michigan............................12 Michigan (LAST 4 IN; in a play in game)
2 Purdue................................2 Purdue
3 Illinois.................................4 Illinois
4 Ohio State.........................7 Ohio State
5 Maryland...........................OUT
7 Michigan State.................7 Michigan State
7 Indiana..............................11 Indiana (LAST 4 BYES)
11 Rutgers (Last 4 In)........11 Rutgers (LAST 4 BYES)
...............................................3 Wisconsin
...............................................5 IOWA
Good stuff, thanks for digging this up. Projecting in November is extremely difficult but they got more right than they got wrong. Michigan is a very talented team, they under performed big time. But no one could projected Iowa to be as good as they have been. Before the season started we knew Keegan had NBA potential but the rest of the team was a huge question mark after last years team was pretty much gutted.
 
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kceasthawk

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I know I've heard this in the past but where have you seen/heard that this is still the case?
They interviewed the head of the committee yesterday. He said the teams in the bracket would basically be finished by the time they wrapped up Saturday night. However, Sunday there will still be some scrubbing, and reassigning of seeds, so yea its still possible their seed line could shift. Being the last game Sunday , not ending until minutes before the bracket reveal however, means the chances are unlikely the game will have an impact.
 

kceasthawk

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The assistant head of the selection committee just said that all the seeds will be locked in by tonight. So I guess nothing that happens in any of the games tomorrow will make any difference. I don't know if any of the mid-majors will be playing tomorrow, but I guess no matter who wins those games, the seeds are already assigned to them.
I believe he actually said the teams will all be picked, BUT there will still be some scrubbing and a few seed adjustments. Ar least that was what I took from his comments...Rregardless with Iowa's game leading right into the selection show, i don't think the outcome will have an impact on seeding by 5pm Sunday......
 
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Assuming iowa is locked in as a 5, please give us Providence in the R32. Or do we continue on the revenge tour and take out our Pac 12 frustrations on UCLA.
 

ssckelley

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They interviewed the head of the committee yesterday. He said the teams in the bracket would basically be finished by the time they wrapped up Saturday night. However, Sunday there will still be some scrubbing, and reassigning of seeds, so yea its still possible their seed line could shift. Being the last game Sunday , not ending until minutes before the bracket reveal however, means the chances are unlikely the game will have an impact.
I’m sure they have a placeholder for Richmond in case they upset Davidson in the A10 final. Davidson is already in the tournament but if Richmond wins it will remove a team from the last 4 in and slide a team down that was getting a bye. I don’t think they make conference AQ’s play in the first 4*. Texas A&M might be another they have a placeholder for in case they upset Tennessee in the SEC title game.

It‘s these minor changes the committee will have to make adjustments, I doubt the B10 title game has any impact.

*unless you’re from a low major conference that plays in the 16 seed game.
 
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pocha444444

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I believe he actually said the teams will all be picked, BUT there will still be some scrubbing and a few seed adjustments. Ar least that was what I took from his comments...Rregardless with Iowa's game leading right into the selection show, i don't think the outcome will have an impact on seeding by 5pm Sunday......
I still don't understand why they can't plan for a Hawks win even if it's minutes before the show. There's only one game going on at that point! You have your bracket set for a Purdue win and a separate bracket for an Iowa win. Whoever wins you send that bracket to CBS for the show. This is 2022 people, we should be able to get this done!
 

ssckelley

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I still don't understand why they can't plan for a Hawks win even if it's minutes before the show. There's only one game going on at that point! You have your bracket set for a Purdue win and a separate bracket for an Iowa win. Whoever wins you send that bracket to CBS for the show. This is 2022 people, we should be able to get this done!
Because it’s probably not that simple, you have to consider locations and it has a trickle down effect on the rest of the field. One might think they could just swap Iowa and UCLA (who Lunardi has as a 4 in our bracket) but is that fair to UCLA as they may not have been the weakest team on the 4 seed line.

I think there’s a lot more to it that doesn’t meet the eye. I also don’t think it’s fair to hold up the brackets for 1 conference who schedules their championship game in a time slot that’s a money maker for them.
 

pocha444444

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Because it’s probably not that simple, you have to consider locations and it has a trickle down effect on the rest of the field. One might think they could just swap Iowa and UCLA (who Lunardi has as a 4 in our bracket) but is that fair to UCLA as they may not have been the weakest team on the 4 seed line.

I think there’s a lot more to it that doesn’t meet the eye. I also don’t think it’s fair to hold up the brackets for 1 conference who schedules their championship game in a time slot that’s a money maker for them.
Possibly, but I find it odd that they can alter seeding just fine these past few days but can't have a contingency bracket ready to alter seeding for one team. Again, if they think this game doesn't matter one way or the other for Iowa's seeding then fine. It doesn't matter in that case. We have no idea where they have Iowa currently though. If they have us at a 6 and a win makes us a 5 in their eyes, then we should get the 5. Whether it be UCLA, St Mary's, etc. that they determine has a worse resume after an Iowa win over Purdue, then obviously it is fair to have them swap seeds. Why wouldn't it be fair to the other team?
 
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I’m sure they COULD have a contingency bracket if the situation warranted such a thing but it doesn’t. They looked at it and said Purdue is a 3 and Iowa is a 5 regardless of outcome. Which makes perfect sense. It’s one game out of 30+
 
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Franisdaman

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The assistant head of the selection committee just said that all the seeds will be locked in by tonight. So I guess nothing that happens in any of the games tomorrow will make any difference. I don't know if any of the mid-majors will be playing tomorrow, but I guess no matter who wins those games, the seeds are already assigned to them.
Yep, tomorrows games will have no impact on the seedings unless it's a team getting an AQ that they had out of the tournament. Even for those teams they have placeholders.
I'm not an expert by any means, but that seems dumb. So I Iowa beats Purdue by 20... That doesn't move the needle? Even if they are still on the 5 line, they change the pecking order on the 5.
That's ****ing dumb. And lazy
First this is lazy crap by the committee. There is only a handful of games tomorrow seems alternate brackets could be created.

Second, UCLA as the 4 to our 5 seed placement would be an awful draw. Jueng is just getting healthy, they are a very dangerous tournament experienced team with both bigs and athletic guards. One of the few matchups I don’t want to see.
They interviewed the head of the committee yesterday. He said the teams in the bracket would basically be finished by the time they wrapped up Saturday night. However, Sunday there will still be some scrubbing, and reassigning of seeds, so yea its still possible their seed line could shift. Being the last game Sunday , not ending until minutes before the bracket reveal however, means the chances are unlikely the game will have an impact.
I’m sure they have a placeholder for Richmond in case they upset Davidson in the A10 final. Davidson is already in the tournament but if Richmond wins it will remove a team from the last 4 in and slide a team down that was getting a bye. I don’t think they make conference AQ’s play in the first 4*. Texas A&M might be another they have a placeholder for in case they upset Tennessee in the SEC title game.

It‘s these minor changes the committee will have to make adjustments, I doubt the B10 title game has any impact.

*unless you’re from a low major conference that plays in the 16 seed game.



Lunardi said this about today's games:


Virginia Tech's [a projected 10 seed; they are now 23-12, 11-9] victory in the ACC championship game [over Duke yesterday] considerably reduces the number of Selection Sunday scenarios.

A Richmond [22-12, 10-8] win in the Atlantic 10 final [they are playing Davidson, 27-5, 15-3] would knock out whomever the selection committee has designated as its last at-large team [his current Last 4 in: Notre Dame, Michigan, Wyoming, Texas A&M].

Wins by both Richmond and Texas A&M [23-11, 9-9], playing in the SEC title game [vs Tennessee, 25-7, 14-4], would bump an additional team currently in the "Last Four In" group [his current Last 4 in: Notre Dame, Michigan, Wyoming, Texas A&M].


Also worth noting is that each time the bubble shrinks, a team currently slotted in "Last Four Byes" [Miami, Iowa State, Rutgers, Indiana] drops to the First Four group headed for Dayton, Ohio.

In other words, it's another "routine" Selection Sunday on tap!


FROM YESTERDAY:






LINK to Lunardi's comments and Bracket:

 

pocha444444

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I’m sure they COULD have a contingency bracket if the situation warranted such a thing but it doesn’t. They looked at it and said Purdue is a 3 and Iowa is a 5 regardless of outcome. Which makes perfect sense. It’s one game out of 30+
How do you know they have Purdue as a 3 and Iowa as a 5, and that this game doesn't change that?
 
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hawkeye_wx

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Lunardi has Michigan and Rutgers both in. Jerry Palm (CBS) has both out. Rutgers clearly deserves to be in based on what they are now, but the bad losses early in the season are haunting them.
 

IllQChawk

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It isn't where or when Iowa is seeded or placed in whatever pod, it's who the committee pairs us with. Iowa hasn't been given a favorable matchup in this tournament forever.
I shutter to think who the committee pairs us with, I'm sure there will be a huge groan emitted from the Iowa fan base when the pairings are announced...
 
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St. Louis Hawk

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if Iowa wins today they should be a 3 or 4….so I’m guessing we would be a 6-7 because the committee stinks.

I have no doubt we will be seeded below what the computers say AND catch a hot talented team in the second.

We may even get Davidson or Virginia Tech in the first round.
 

bdg8

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We will be fine. We have our guardian angel on selection committee
 

jhawkinaz

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It won’t make a difference if Iowa wins or loses this game, the bracket will pretty much be set before the game even starts. Iowa is playing for a trophy.
You may indeed be right, but IMO this is not the case. I think if they win today they will be a 4 seed, and if they lose a 5. I think the committee has a number of scenarios already set up, and when todays games are finished they just match up the corresponding scenario to the outcome.

not much difference between 4 and 5 though, so I do agree this is mostly just about a trophy.
 
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StormHawk42

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It isn't where or when Iowa is seeded or placed in whatever pod, it's who the committee pairs us with. Iowa hasn't been given a favorable matchup in this tournament forever.
I shutter to think who the committee pairs us with, I'm sure there will be a huge groan emitted from the Iowa fan base when the pairings are announced...
I think I saw it on HN that the last 17(?) times Iowa has won its first game, it has been chalk on the other side. I.e. we’ve never gotten a 15 to upset a 2 when we were a 7.

Didn’t verify but it sounds right.
 

IllQChawk

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Will someone explain to me why they place so much importance on the non-conference schedule. In Iowa's defense, Fran lost the player of the year to graduation, Iowa's second leading scorer to the NBA, a 3rd starter to the portal, and a key player of the bench to the portal and you can understand why Fran scheduled the teams as he did. It's not like he scheduled 11- 300 rpi teams to be sacrificed at Carver.
Doesn't going through the 20 game schedule of the Big Ten mean anything to the NCAA committee anymore.
 
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Franisdaman

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Because the outcome of the Purdue/Iowa game doesn’t change the seeding for either team.

could a win today change our overall ranking by the Committee?

Ie, coming into today maybe they have us at #20 overall (the worst 5 seed). Could/should a win over Purdue then move us up to, say, #18 (the 2nd best 5 seed) and into a different bracket?
 

BrunoMars420

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With how we are playing and in the top 16 of the net I don’t understand how we couldn’t be a 4 seed?
 

bulletproof90

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I doubt the result of today's game will impact the bracket. They will have it finalized before our game is over. Because of laziness and/or incompetence in wanting to and/or being able to plan for contingencies by preparing multiple brackets, which I'll grant has a greater amount of complexity than you'd assume, but that's their damn job.

I think this same thing screwed us last year. OSU had no business being the "better" 2 seed over us (we got the last 2 seed, being put in Gonzaga's bracket), but because they could have won the tournament title, they got the benefit of the doubt and were placed over us. Meanwhile we got the absolute screwjob of a draw in playing the PAC-12 champs on a bye in the next round. Think we make the E8 last year from OSU's spot, being completely honest.
 
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szohn

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Besides a couple of the 1 seeds
nobody else really scares me
 

jonesy5960

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The only sure thing I know is that anybody on here saying anything definitively regarding seeding is full if sh$t, because they don't have that information. The only ones that do are the committee members and even they don't have everything drilled down until the day is over.
 
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HawkAssassin

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It looks like all the teamsheet stats were finally updated.

NET - 14
High 4 Seed

Resume Based
KPI - 28
SOR - 19
Average - 23.5
Low 6 Seed

Predictive Based
Kenpom - 13
BPI - 14
Sagarin - 14
Average - 13.67
High 4 Seed

Only one metric that's below a 5 seed. Think they're looking good for at least a 5. Probably will meet in the middle between the a low 6 and high 4. Still some variance as to where they can end up.