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ESPN: Iowa should be Na't Title contender next year, too

OnceAhawk

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Non-playoff matchup that could be a national semifinal next season: Stanford vs. Iowa in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual. Notre Dame-Ohio State could go here, too, but Stanford and Iowa both could be back in national title contention in 2016. Stanford has to replace quarterback Kevin Hogan, but it returns dynamic running back/returnerChristian McCaffrey and will be more experienced in the secondary. Iowa will be more experienced on defense, returns quarterback C.J. Beathard and benefits from a schedule without Ohio State or Michigan State and with the toughest games (Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern) at home.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14389201/the-20-things-learn-bowl-season
 
You don't look like you're new around here. Predicting how the Hawks are going to do year to year is a total crap shoot. KF's MO has been to over perform when nobody thinks we can be good and look really bad when we are under the microscope and expectations are high. Probably true about most college football teams but we could easily do a total Jekyl and Hyde, IMHO. A couple of key injuries and/or bad bounces and it's all over. It would be great, a lot of fun this season, but I can't go there, yet.
 
You don't look like you're new around here. Predicting how the Hawks are going to do year to year is a total crap shoot. KF's MO has been to over perform when nobody thinks we can be good and look really bad when we are under the microscope and expectations are high. Probably true about most college football teams but we could easily do a total Jekyl and Hyde, IMHO. A couple of key injuries and/or bad bounces and it's all over. It would be great, a lot of fun this season, but I can't go there, yet.

i hear ya. All you have to do is look at 2010; i think our 5 losses were by a total of 18 points.

Last year we lost by 2 to WI, in OT to Neb, by 3 to ISU---all winnable games, where we could easily have had a 10 win season.

Injuries, bad luck, and turnovers can ruin any given game and any given season.
 
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You don't look like you're new around here. Predicting how the Hawks are going to do year to year is a total crap shoot. KF's MO has been to over perform when nobody thinks we can be good and look really bad when we are under the microscope and expectations are high. Probably true about most college football teams but we could easily do a total Jekyl and Hyde, IMHO. A couple of key injuries and/or bad bounces and it's all over. It would be great, a lot of fun this season, but I can't go there, yet.

Agreed it's a crapshoot to some extent, but it's not crazy that Iowa could be better. Especially if Ott gets the 5th year and King comes back. If those 2 things happen, look out. The OL will likely start 5 guys who have started a game before (Myers, Welsh, Daniels, Croston, Boettger). DL would be salty and experienced with Ott, Hesse, Johnson, Bazata and Ekakite and Nelson as experienced backups.

Team could still lose games but potential would be there for another big year.
 
Yeah, I'm sure Iowa will probably have a high ranking in the preseason for 2016, but I would just as soon they didn't. As others have pointed out, Iowa tends to have mediocre results when they come into a season with high expectations. In fact, the two seasons they were rated high in the preseason under Ferentz (2005 & 2010) they finished both years with 5 losses.
 
You don't look like you're new around here. Predicting how the Hawks are going to do year to year is a total crap shoot. KF's MO has been to over perform when nobody thinks we can be good and look really bad when we are under the microscope and expectations are high. Probably true about most college football teams but we could easily do a total Jekyl and Hyde, IMHO. A couple of key injuries and/or bad bounces and it's all over. It would be great, a lot of fun this season, but I can't go there, yet.

that was old kirk
 
Yeah, I'm sure Iowa will probably have a high ranking in the preseason for 2016, but I would just as soon they didn't. As others have pointed out, Iowa tends to have mediocre results when they come into a season with high expectations. In fact, the two seasons they were rated high in the preseason under Ferentz (2005 & 2010) they finished both years with 5 losses.
There were a couple other years they started the season ranked and went on to success. Despite the lack of recognition (probably the most unheralded team in CFB history to start ranked where they did), Iowa opened the 2004 season ranked 12th before falling out after losses to Arizona State and Michigan. Obviously they had to spend the rest of the season proving people wrong, but for a team that started the season ranked 12th, it seemed like it was mostly just a token "well you won 10+ games the last two years, so here's a high ranking, now take it and be gone with you..."
 
You don't look like you're new around here. Predicting how the Hawks are going to do year to year is a total crap shoot. KF's MO has been to over perform when nobody thinks we can be good and look really bad when we are under the microscope and expectations are high. Probably true about most college football teams but we could easily do a total Jekyl and Hyde, IMHO. A couple of key injuries and/or bad bounces and it's all over. It would be great, a lot of fun this season, but I can't go there, yet.

You're right, of course. However, other factors to consider that make next year objectively different from all previous years include the facility and the change in practice routine. Other factors, perhaps not unique to this year or next, include having the right mesh of player skills, and (most importantly) a united locker room. Having Ott and King back would certainly help.

We'll need guys to step up to fill the roles vacated so capably by our departing seniors, no doubt. A victory over Stanford would certainly be a great way to start 2016.

So, count me optimistic!
 
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"benefits from a schedule without Ohio State or Michigan State and with the toughest games (Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern) at home" How times have changed. Northwestern being one of the toughest and nary a mention of Nebraska.
 
Reminds of the 2005 season. Highly ranked. Returning Tate, greenway and hodge. Huge expectations. Crushed by Iowa state. Puke.
 
2015: 12-1 going into the Rose Bowl. Lots of people back at the skill positions, including QB.
2016: 5-7 with losses to four teams that don’t make the post season.

You know it’s true.
 
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Are we not going to replace both the kicker and punter next year? Maybe I'm wrong and I am too lazy to google their years/eligibility, but one thing that I think all of Ferentz's great teams have had was really strong special teams. He just relies on them so much trying to salt away games.
 
There were a couple other years they started the season ranked and went on to success. Despite the lack of recognition (probably the most unheralded team in CFB history to start ranked where they did), Iowa opened the 2004 season ranked 12th before falling out after losses to Arizona State and Michigan. Obviously they had to spend the rest of the season proving people wrong, but for a team that started the season ranked 12th, it seemed like it was mostly just a token "well you won 10+ games the last two years, so here's a high ranking, now take it and be gone with you..."

True, but 2005 and 2010 are the years they were preseason top 10 if I'm not mistaken. I could be wrong. Also, I didn't realize Iowa was rated that high in 2004. That would have been Tate's first year as a starter.
 
I had this discussion with a buddy the other day and we talked about not getting too high of expectations because of 2010. My response was that too many things went right in 2009. Iowa wasn't blowing everyone out. Off the top of my head they blocked two FGs against UNI, last second TD against Mich St, pinball interception against Indiana, barely escaping Arkansas St. My point is that they didn't own too many of those games.

Now compare to this year where it seemed Iowa was in control pretty much every game. I just think that next year will be full of guys who have experience controlling games. Therefore, there hopefully won't be a let down where we flip flop and lose the close games instead of winning them.
 
I had this discussion with a buddy the other day and we talked about not getting too high of expectations because of 2010. My response was that too many things went right in 2009. Iowa wasn't blowing everyone out. Off the top of my head they blocked two FGs against UNI, last second TD against Mich St, pinball interception against Indiana, barely escaping Arkansas St. My point is that they didn't own too many of those games.

Now compare to this year where it seemed Iowa was in control pretty much every game. I just think that next year will be full of guys who have experience controlling games. Therefore, there hopefully won't be a let down where we flip flop and lose the close games instead of winning them.

Correct, really outside of Wisconsin, no game came down to the final possession.
 
Correct, really outside of Wisconsin, no game came down to the final possession.
What Iowa has to focus on is improving the things that hindered them from being even better. I think the Northwestern game was the only one you could say we played close to perfect in all aspects. Every other game save for the mid-major massacre of North Texas, had areas we could improve on. Defense giving up drives and 3rd and longs to average opponents. Offense still not firing on all cylinders in the passing game. Pass protection. 3rd down conversions have been a bit of a struggle the last few games too.

In order to avoid the hype and glamor of high praise and preseason rankings, Iowa needs to look internally to find the key to maintaining and hopefully even improving on a banner 2015 season.

We can't worry about how many teams will be gunning for us simply because we beat them this past year. Besides, f*** those teams because most of them still owe us a few more wins anyway (and none of them need their trophies back yet either).
 
I think it's important to remember how football is a game of inches with an odd shaped ball that can bounce strangely. All it takes is a fluke play or two, a half where you spend the whole time buried in your own end zone offensively, or just a game where nobody's firing on all cylinders and the game goes south and an L shows up on your record.

Also, short of having 100% of your players back, it's really hard to predict the impact of losing a few players. Some players add much more than you can really discern from a stat sheet. We heard all season about how senior leadership has been a key element this year. Who will step up? What impact on the field will the loss of our seniors be? Are there departing players who've really been a bigger part of this than we're giving them credit for?

I'm reminded of the well worn caveat for investment firms: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results."

Not saying we won't be good, but going into next season sure that we'll be in the title hunt again is high risk for major disappointment. Other than the bluest of blue bloods, teams just don't do that, but somehow people are confident Iowa will. I hope like hell it happens, but I'll be going into next season like every other, assuming 8 wins +/- 4 is the most likely scenario. Huge range? Yup, but history doesn't really support anything tighter than that.
 
A lot of rational posts in this thread. I don't have much to add other than saying that while we only trailed once in the fourth quarter this year, we did have a few games where all you need to change is one play and we may have lost. Iowa State gave us all they could handle as we were tied with about 3 minutes left. If Vandeburg doesn't scoop up that fumble in the 3rd quarter, we are driving late in the 4th quarter just to tie the game. Against Pitt, King really bailed us out with a couple of interceptions, including one in the endzone that prevented at least 3 points. If he doesn't make that great play, we are kicking a 57 yard field goal to tie the game. Everyone knows how close the Wisconsin game was. The Illinois game was getting pretty dicey as we had injuries to our offensive line that basically negated our ability to provide pass protection. If Canzeri doesn't have an unbelievable performance, we could have easily lost that game. The Indiana and Minnesota games were both close and went back and forth. Even the Purdue game got close in the 3rd quarter and made many nervous. Finally, in the Nebraska game we were outgained by nearly 200 yards, and we basically let Nebraska beat themselves.

It's not hard to imagine how this season could have ended with at least 3 losses. We controlled most games (even against MSU) as we rarely trailed, especially in the 4th quarter, however many of these games were still close.

Looking to the talent next year, we will have a few questions. For example, we return 5 offensive linemen that have starting experience, however, I am not sure we can quite predict the impact of losing Blythe and Walsh, as both played at an All-Big 10 level this year. Lomax played very well in the secondary and was one of the leaders on defense. While I am confident Gair and/or Snyder can perform well next year, it would be hard to predict there wouldn't be at least some drop off next year. How will our WR's perform without Tevaun Smith? Our passing offense struggled when he went down for a few games. Finally, the biggest question about next year is whether King will return for a senior season. We have some experienced and talented corners to replace him if he does leave, however, you can never count on truly replacing the best defensive back in the country.

I am not overly worried about any of the questions facing next year's team, because we appear to have talented players available to fill virtually any hole, and that is why I have high expectations for next year's team. However, it is always healthy to keep in mind how unpredictable collegiate athletics can be.
 
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Non-playoff matchup that could be a national semifinal next season: Stanford vs. Iowa in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual. Notre Dame-Ohio State could go here, too, but Stanford and Iowa both could be back in national title contention in 2016. Stanford has to replace quarterback Kevin Hogan, but it returns dynamic running back/returnerChristian McCaffrey and will be more experienced in the secondary. Iowa will be more experienced on defense, returns quarterback C.J. Beathard and benefits from a schedule without Ohio State or Michigan State and with the toughest games (Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern) at home.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14389201/the-20-things-learn-bowl-season

tumblr_m8xhs7ci8H1qi2riwo1_500.gif
 
one has to be in contention first, to be "back in" next year

What? The Selection Committee had Iowa in the top 5 for numerous weeks late in the season and Iowa was ranked #4 (a playoff team) at the end of the regular season. Iowa played in the BTCG and suffered a very narrow loss late in a close contest for a playoff spot. By any reasonable definition, that is contending for a national title.

Your claim is ridiculous.
 
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Iowa has an out of nowhere breakout year and now espn declares they're a title contender next year? That sounds consistent with their level of analysis, which is about equivalent to some chimps throwing their feces at a list of teams painted on a wall.
Or "predicting" what the weather was like yesterday.

If they win 10 games next year, I would be very pleased.

If they go unbeaten, win the B1G title game and make it to the playoff, I would be shocked. Ecstatically so. But shocked nonetheless.
 
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If they let CJ have a lot of latitude in running the offense we will be pretty good (10+ wins). If they sit on CJ and play "hide the ball KF style) we will be lucky to have 7 wins IMO.
 
If Ott gets a 5th year and King decides he wants to become a Legend in Iowa City, KF could only need to replace Meier and Lomax on a defense that was very good in 2015.

T Smith, Blythe, Walsh, Canzeri, Cox/Plewa on offense. Lots to return next season on both sides of the ball, including CJB at 100%.
 
When analyzing the post season next year, first they have to win the West. Looking at the contenders for next year and their schedules (probably safely toss out Illinois and Purdue). I really think that for sure 7 - 2 and maybe even 6 - 3 will win the West.

Iowa: (7 - 2)?
At Rutgers
NW
at Minnesota
at Purdue
Wisco
Bye week
at Penn St
Michigan
at Illinois
Nebraska

Northwestern: (5 - 4)
Nebraska
at Iowa
Bye Week
at Michigan St
Indiana
at Ohio St
Wisconsin
at Purdue
at Minnesota
Illinois

Wisconsin: (5 - 4)
at Michigan St
at Michigan
Bye Week
Ohio State
at Iowa
Nebraska
at Northwestern
Illinois
at Purdue
Minnesota

Minnesota: (4 - 5)
at Penn St
Iowa
at Maryland
Rutgers
at Illinois
Purdue
at Nebraska
Northwestern
at Wisconsin

Nebraska: (5 - 4)
at Northwestern
Illinois
Bye Week
at Indiana
Purdue
at Wisconsin
at Ohio State
Minnesota
Maryland
at Iowa
 
Are we not going to replace both the kicker and punter next year? Maybe I'm wrong and I am too lazy to google their years/eligibility, but one thing that I think all of Ferentz's great teams have had was really strong special teams. He just relies on them so much trying to salt away games.

Go to KF's great teams. Common denominator? Excellent linebacker play.
 
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What? The Selection Committee had Iowa in the top 5 for numerous weeks late in the season and Iowa was ranked #4 (a playoff team) at the end of the regular season. Iowa played in the BTCG and suffered a very narrow loss late in a close contest for a playoff spot. By any reasonable definition, that is contending for a national title.

Your claim is ridiculous.
it doesn't matter what some committee says , a committee who wants lsu and Alabama and Arkansas or ole miss in there, three of the four teams to be sec- is their dream
 
A lot goes into Iowa being a title contender and schedule is a large piece of it.
 
They could be a title contender but as always it will depend on how they do replacing the seniors. I think a big thing for next year is can they get some receivers step up and can they find some edge rushers at DE.
 
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