ESPN's Bubble Watch

[StormHawk42]

First edition of the season. Always enjoyable to read because you realize it's almost March. Usually good for us to keep an eye on since Iowa is on there a lot.

It may not be as interesting for us Hawk fans this season.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

Nice to see us as a lock. Interesting that they didn't include Ohio St. at all. The A-10 looks somewhat underrated. I watched Cincinnati play a week ago and they look like they could give a lot of teams fits. Do not want them in the tournament. I haven't watched a game in the Pac-12 so I have no idea how their conference stacks up and who's any good.

 

[TKingpin]

It may get more interesting for us to pay attention to this at the end of the regular season, particularly if some of our late-season games are against teams on the bubble, like Indiana, OSU and Michigan. That might prove to be some seriously intense and highly motivated competition.

OK, I realize that right now Indiana is "in" for sure, but what if they go 4-5 down the stretch, here and have no significant wins? IU is 18 - 4 but their next 9 games are: Mich, PSU, Iowa, MSU, NEB, Purdue, Ill, Iowa and MD. So, clearly favored against PSU, NEB and ILL. They could lose the other 6! Then, they are 21-10 with only 1 win in the top 50 (Notre Dame). Very "bubbly" sounding to me. They may need a "signature" win in the worst way...

 

[TampaHawkfan]

Indiana's RPI is only 50 despite their record - if they struggle against the tougher part of their schedule, they might be sweating on Selection Sunday. Not a lot of quality wins on their resume. Only one in the Top 50 (Notre Dame). That said, they've only PLAYED two games in the Top 50 - so a lot of question marks about how good they really are.

In some cases, I think the RPI is full of beans, but in cases like this, it does a fairly decent job of pointing out the truth: Indiana is pretty much totally untested.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

I sure wouldn't mind seeing IU on the outside looking in. SOS of 182 is ridiculous, although that will get better as they finally start to play someone. Really want Michigan to take the Hosers down, so they can begin their tailspin.

Xavier not being considered a lock shows that this analysis isn't very accurate.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

True - the tougher games won't hurt their RPI, win or lose. They're probably in pretty good shape - just as long as they pick up a few more Top 50's.

A lot of IU's scores have looked impressive, but they won't scare me THAT much until they prove they can beat teams in the top part of the conference. Michigan, MD, Purdue, etc.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I sure wouldn't mind seeing IU on the outside looking in. SOS of 182 is ridiculous, although that will get better as they finally start to play someone. Really want Michigan to take the Hosers down, so they can begin their tailspin.

Xavier not being considered a lock shows that this analysis isn't very accurate.

Agree. Xavier is probably one of the 5 best teams. They are most definitely a lock.

 

[iowalawhawk]

I'm used to Iowa not being on the bubble - I'm just not used to being on the "in" side.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

First edition of the season. Always enjoyable to read because you realize it's almost March. Usually good for us to keep an eye on since Iowa is on there a lot.

It may not be as interesting for us Hawk fans this season.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Nice thanks for posting. Always enjoyed this weekly article which have always thought this was the best article on breaking down teams on the bubble and ncaa chances. Seems like Iowa has been on bubble last 3 seasons so nice to finally see them as a lock. Also isn't Eammon Brennan a local Iowan?

 

[cubsMDdmb]

Only 5 teams total are locks. Very impressive that Iowa is one of them and the only B1G team that is.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Agree. Xavier is probably one of the 5 best teams. They are most definitely a lock.

As cubsMDdmb just mentioned, only 5 teams total are locks, which is interesting. I would definitely consider Xavier a lock, along with Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa State, Texas A&M, and a few others.

I'm not sure exactly how ESPN defines "lock." For example, if Iowa loses the rest of their games they won't make the tournament, but there's basically no chance of that happening. Therefore, we must presume that "lock" doesn't mean a team has already won all the games they need to win in order to receive a tournament berth. However, I struggle to think of any realistic scenario where teams like Xavier, Kansas, and Maryland don't make the tournament.

 

[StormHawk42]

He briefly touches on it in the intro to the article. Basically, they look at a team potentially losing the rest of their games and then the liklihood of that happening. We could lose 10 more games total for 17-14 record, but one that includes a great SOS and 7 top 50 wins. So aside from that, the sheer probably of that happening is miniscule, based on the opponents on the back end.

The reason B12 and BEast teams aren't locked up yet is because those teams in the bottom of the conference are alot closer to the top teams than that of the B1G teams. I.e. Minnesota and Rutgers are a lot further away from Iowa than TCU is to Oklahoma. Not to mention, ISU still has to play AT KU, WVU, and Baylor. That's a lot of roadwork left. That's just one example. At least that's how I read it.

 

[SotaHawk87]

A lock is nice but 8-11 in B10 and 17-14 would absolutely not be enough to get in.. Iowa needs two more wins to be a lock

 

[cubsMDdmb]

He's calling us a lock because of who we've beaten and who we have left to play. Our schedule here on out is much easier than what we've already played. That makes us a virtual lock as it seems highly unlikely we'll lose the rest of our games and have already won most of our tough ones. This is in comparison to Indiana or Maryland who has a similar record but hasn't beaten many good teams and still has a tough schedule left.

Obviously if we lose out, we very likely wouldn't get in so in that scenario we aren't a lock. No one is yet. But we are as close to a lock as there is right now.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

Thanks for posting about Bubble Watch, but I was eager to get a further breakdown on Iowa's status. So I did what any good fan would do to get info on Iowa, i headed to CF.
http://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/showthread.php?t=214269.

 

[eb_sports]

Nice not having to worry which side of the bubble we are on. Worth watching, because if we lose more than a couple of games down the stretch, we could end up a 3 or 4 seed and face one of them.