Expectations for 17-18
- Thread starter tony0051
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I'd add Baer to that he's got ups and has no weaknesses I see him as a 14/7 guy next year now that he's shooting the three well. Moss I see as more of 10-11. But spot of with cook at 16-8. Jobo 12-6 assist such a great passer. Pemsl around the same numbers as this year.
And by far the deepest team in the country we will wear our opponents down!
And 22-23 wins going into the BTT. Following year top 10 team, final four?
Why does cook always go left when he's a right hander that's odd, usually don't see that. But I think he will add a nice 12-15 footer to his game.
Why do you think Moss is going to average double figures? I don't see that at all. I imagine Iowa will be better next year, maybe by a lot but we haven't seen the schedule yet. How can anyone predict just 2 or 3 losses in the pre-season when we don't know who we are playing? We play at ISU, is that a "W"?
Why do you think Moss is going to average double figures? I don't see that at all. I imagine Iowa will be better next year, maybe by a lot but we haven't seen the schedule yet. How can anyone predict just 2 or 3 losses in the pre-season when we don't know who we are playing? We play at ISU, is that a "W"?[/QUOTE]
Yes.
We know we play @ ISU and Drake in Des Moines... that should be 2-0 based on ISU losing 6 of 9 rotation players.
Given our scheduling tendencies, we'll have another 4-5 games of 250+ RPI teams which makes us at least 6-0, then we would only need to go 5-2/4-3 in other games.
Given our scheduling tendencies, we'll have another 4-5 games of 250+ RPI teams which makes us at least 6-0, then we would only need to go 5-2/4-3 in other games.
There are two guys in the B10 averaging 14/7 in conference play, Swanigan and Bridges. That is asking a ton from Baer for next year. I think if he can put up similar stats, maybe 8/5 next year, that would be a huge contribution.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Moss take a big step forward and average 10-12 a game next year. We've seen flashes, the ISU game, at Nebraska, at Minnesota. With Jok gone, there's going to be lots of playing time available at the off guard spot and he will be first in line for those minutes. It's his first taste of B10 game play this year and it's also to get on track when you're not getting a ton of minutes.
Love the optimism from everyone, but as you point out averaging 14 and 7 isn't all that easy. Baer is a terrific player, but I would be surprised if he ever averages 14 points per game. He doesn't hunt shots and he will have games he is limited by fouls due to how hard and aggressive he plays. He won't shoot 60% from 3-point land for a season.
The future for Iowa is very bright, but just want to point out that teams don't improve in a straight linear fashion. Every year is different. This year Iowa could play without many expectations, and could focus on getting better especially after being exposed as lacking on defense early in the season.
This team should expect an NCAA tournament berth next year, but it's not a given. If the team maintains the same attitude and unselfishness as displayed the last half of this year, future is very bright.
I expect Iowa to have a better non-conference record. Conference play is always tough, especially on the road. Protect the home court and snag some wins on the road.
Our conference record could be something like 11-7 ... I could see us in the 23-win range heading into the tourney ... The experience these young guys got this year is going to pay huge dividends moving forward. Cook is a beast and is going to be fun to watch. Bohannon .. .simply amazes me ... Exceeded any expectations I had for him ... The future of Iowa basketball is looking very bright.
Our conference record could be something like 11-7 ... I could see us in the 23-win range heading into the tourney ... The experience these young guys got this year is going to pay huge dividends moving forward. Cook is a beast and is going to be fun to watch. Bohannon .. .simply amazes me ... Exceeded any expectations I had for him ... The future of Iowa basketball is looking very bright.
Other teams aren't going to be at a standstill either. I think that is a missing component of some of the more optimistic conjecture.
Some of the opponents will lose a lot, like wisky. Some won't lose anything(minny). Others reload(msu).
Iowa loses a big chunk of it's perimeter scoring in Jok, but had the opportunity to show they could win without him and pulled it off.
The trajectory looks like it should be in the right direction for next years team. I'll take that.
Some of the opponents will lose a lot, like wisky. Some won't lose anything(minny). Others reload(msu).
Iowa loses a big chunk of it's perimeter scoring in Jok, but had the opportunity to show they could win without him and pulled it off.
The trajectory looks like it should be in the right direction for next years team. I'll take that.
Doesn't he average 6 rebounds this year? It's only 1 more lol but ok 14/6, happy?
Actually sticking with my original because someone has to make up for joks 6 rebounds and with, I feel better D their will be acouple more rebounds a game and I got cook at 16-8. So still got 4 rebounds who I dont know will get since I think pemsl will average the same. Maybe the guards pick up the 4.
Certainly a fair question. While I don't think Moss is playing with much confidence (and also simply isn't playing much) right now, I see him winning the 2G position next year and being higher up on the offensive pecking order than he is this year. Moss has shown stretches where he can dominate a game offensively. I think that we saw similar inconsistency out of a sophomore Jok, in terms of up and down performances. So it certainly is a projection on my part.
Moss is a question mark I think he will fall into the 8-12 point range. He reminds me a lot of a young marble if he puts in the work like marble did he will put up double figures.
Also he is so important we are only missing a guy that can break down the D and score at the bucket. Moss can be that guy, and has to be that guy next year. I don't think Dailey is quick enough and Brady never will be. Unsure about CM. CW maybe,but I see moss playing more minutes. Jobo I'm not sure he ever will be due to his size.
When Joe W comes in 2018 he will be a guy that can breakdown the D and shoot the 3 from day 1.
Also he is so important we are only missing a guy that can break down the D and score at the bucket. Moss can be that guy, and has to be that guy next year. I don't think Dailey is quick enough and Brady never will be. Unsure about CM. CW maybe,but I see moss playing more minutes. Jobo I'm not sure he ever will be due to his size.
When Joe W comes in 2018 he will be a guy that can breakdown the D and shoot the 3 from day 1.
I would take 11-7 in Big Ten play right now. I would like to see Bohannon, Cook and Baer all get 30 minutes a game.
here are the three keys to next year IMO:
1. Can this team continue to succeed without a dribble drive PG? It has worked most of this year because you have Jok who can shoot over anyone. Baer has shown an ability to get shots off recently, but Bohanon and Brady still need that opening. This PG option and the continued outside shooting will keep the middle open for Cook, Pemsl and the new guys coming and make the Hawks pretty difficult to defend.
2. Can the team improve defensively and consistently? The start of the PSU game was very bad with the rotation and leaving shooters open both on the perimeter and a couple under the basket too. This improved as the game went on and may have been due to Jones starting and not working with the starters much so the rotations were off. If PSU would have been hitting their shots early, there could have been a 10+ point deficit and we might have seen a full scale substitution like Indiana. There was a time later in the game too where there were some issues. since the Hawks were hitting a lot of shots, this did not cause issues in this game.
3. Team chemistry is different every year. This seems cliché but we have seen this issue on a couple of the teams in the prior year that have caused problems as the season goes on. All reports indicate that Jones is a great team guy and Jok has been a big brother to some of these guys. It doesn't seem like Brady and Uhl are these type of guys to take these roles as seniors especially since both are likely to see smaller roles next year based upon recent trend and guys coming in, so does this become Baer's team for the next two years. I think you are starting to see some of Baer's on court efforts rub off on Wagner and Pemsl so that seems very positive. Cook has really stepped up his intensity too. Are these same things happening off the court and outside the public eye? I hope they are.
Obviously, we have been able to get around or survive the first two items during the last couple of weeks. Continue or minimize these areas next year and the on court results should be very good and the 22+ win territory should be reasonable. But if the third item on the list isn't good, the other two may not matter.
1. Can this team continue to succeed without a dribble drive PG? It has worked most of this year because you have Jok who can shoot over anyone. Baer has shown an ability to get shots off recently, but Bohanon and Brady still need that opening. This PG option and the continued outside shooting will keep the middle open for Cook, Pemsl and the new guys coming and make the Hawks pretty difficult to defend.
2. Can the team improve defensively and consistently? The start of the PSU game was very bad with the rotation and leaving shooters open both on the perimeter and a couple under the basket too. This improved as the game went on and may have been due to Jones starting and not working with the starters much so the rotations were off. If PSU would have been hitting their shots early, there could have been a 10+ point deficit and we might have seen a full scale substitution like Indiana. There was a time later in the game too where there were some issues. since the Hawks were hitting a lot of shots, this did not cause issues in this game.
3. Team chemistry is different every year. This seems cliché but we have seen this issue on a couple of the teams in the prior year that have caused problems as the season goes on. All reports indicate that Jones is a great team guy and Jok has been a big brother to some of these guys. It doesn't seem like Brady and Uhl are these type of guys to take these roles as seniors especially since both are likely to see smaller roles next year based upon recent trend and guys coming in, so does this become Baer's team for the next two years. I think you are starting to see some of Baer's on court efforts rub off on Wagner and Pemsl so that seems very positive. Cook has really stepped up his intensity too. Are these same things happening off the court and outside the public eye? I hope they are.
Obviously, we have been able to get around or survive the first two items during the last couple of weeks. Continue or minimize these areas next year and the on court results should be very good and the 22+ win territory should be reasonable. But if the third item on the list isn't good, the other two may not matter.
When Moss has looked good, he has been brilliant and dominant. THAT Moss would easily average 12-15 points a game. But sadly the Moss we see a bit more often seems tentative and seems to disappear. I am not negative on him but I haven't seen any kind of consistency even within games or halves. I think he will be important next year it remains to be seen how much he can improve. Lord knows his upside is huge.
