F—k. Game 3 - Iowa/PSU rained out today.
- Thread starter AuroraHawk
- Start date
At this stage in the season, if Iowa is going to miss games, I'd much rather have them miss the mid-week games. Pitchers are creatures of routine. Langenberg's best outing of the year was last Sunday. Now he's either (a) going to pitch a couple of innings on Tuesday against ISU to get some work in before starting against OSU next Sunday or (b) go a full two weeks before pitching against real competition. Not ideal; not in the least.
PSU has only won one Sunday game in B1G play. They crushed a pretty bad OSU team last Sunday. They played tight Sunday games against Michigan (on road) and Purdue (on road) but were demolished by Indiana (at home).
Yes, Iowa might have lost today and lost 30 RPI points. A road series loss isn't a good thing at this time of year.
But, on the other hand, a win would have added about 30 RPI points (moving them into the 36, 37 or 38 spot). A win would have given them a nice road series win. A win would have Iowa sitting at 9-6 in the B1G standings with OSU, MSU and Northwestern remaining on the schedule - poised very well to make a run at the top 2 or 3 spots in the final B1G standings.
Finally, if Iowa wants to be considered a Regional-qualifying type of team, it needs to be able to win a rubber game on the road against a team that is currently in the lower portion of the B1G standings.
To your point . . . is it "horrible?" You're probably right in concluding that it is not "horrible." On the spectrum of outcomes (horrible to outstanding), it probably sits somewhere in the middle.
Here's a question to ponder.
Brecht threw 35 pitches. Morgan threw 35 pitches. Langenberg didn't throw a single pitch.
For the game against Illinois State (a MUST win), does Heller use Langenberg, Brecht and/or Morgan as their "mid-week" work?
To me, Langenberg seems like a 'no-brainer' yes and there is precedent. Langenberg pitched on Friday, March 10th against Texas Tech. He then pitched one inning against St. Thomas on Wednesday, March 15th before starting against South Dakota State on Sunday, March 19th. I'd bet dollars for donuts that Langenberg starts against ISU and is slotted to pitch 30-45 pitches. He'd still be able to pitching on Sunday (4 full days of rest).
Morgan? Tougher call. But, if Langenberg can pitch one inning on a Wednesday and start the following Sunday (3 full days of rest), that suggests to me that Heller is OK with allowing a starting pitcher to get a minimal amount of work in and still start on three days rest. I'm thinking that Morgan may be slotted to throw an inning.
Brecht? Toughest call. Iowa needs the best possible version of Brecht for the Friday opener against OSU. OSU is a team that Iowa needs to beat in a 3 game series. Not sure that it is a good call to slot Brecht for even an inning of work on a Tuesday and then have him start a game on Friday. (That written . . . there is certainly that theory of pitching that you don't want your pitchers to be "too strong" and overthrowing) I'm betting Heller has Brecht do his normal mid-week throwing routine with the hope that he re-discovers his control to set a positive tone for the Friday night game.
Due to Brecht and Morgan's implosions, Savary and Whitlock won't be available for ISU. Simpson might be able to throw an inning. Voelker wasn't used. Obermueller wasn't used. I'm thinking 2-3 innings for Langenberg, 1 inning for Morgan and then hand the ball to Voelker and hopefully we see the return of what we saw earlier in the season from him. If all goes according to plan, Voelker could get Iowa deep into the game and Heller can use Henderson, Llewellyn and Christopherson in limited action to close things out as needed.
8 game homestead. Iowa truly cannot afford to do any worse than 6-2. 7-1 before heading to Evanston would be most welcomed.
Indirect games are going OK for Iowa right now. If all scores play out as they sit at 2:35 p.m. CDT, Iowa would pick up around 7-9 RPI points. They are currently #38 and trail #37 Northeastern by a single RPI point. Northeastern's Indirect games are not going as favorably. Thus, very good chance that Iowa will get past Northeastern today.
Arizona State is currently at #39 - 1 RPI point behind Iowa. The Sun Devils are in Corvallis right now playing the Ducks. ASU has that game (Ducks up 2-0) and a fair number of Indirect games that start later in the afternoon. Really tough to predict whether Iowa will remain ahead of ASU by the end of the day.
Notre Dame is #40 and trails Iowa by 22 RPI points. Missouri is #41 (-32). Texas A&M is #42 (-38). At this juncture, I think that it is pretty safe to conclude that Iowa will remain in the 30s at the close of today - #37, #38 or #39.
As for the B1G race, Maryland just broke a 7-7 tie by scoring two in T7 against Indiana. A Hoosier loss puts Maryland alone in the top spot. Nebraska is thumping Minnesota and will climb over Iowa in the standings. Iowa will likely end the day tied for 6th in the B1G with Purdue. If Maryland wins and MSU holds onto a 9-2 lead over Northwestern, MSU will jump Indiana in the standings and will be alone in second place in the B1G.
Largely by virtue of Western Michigan's win over Tulane, Iowa (now #37) caught Northeastern and is now 11 points ahead of Northeastern (#39). Iowa is ahead of #38 ASU by 8 points. South Dakota State is getting throttled by Oral Roberts which will cost Iowa about 5 RPI points. But, ASU is down 5-0 to Oregon going into the T6th in Corvallis. ASU loses 15 points if they lose that game. ASU will definitely pass Iowa if it wins; it will be tough for ASU's indirect games to add another 18 or so points needed to catch Iowa. All in all, Iowa/ASU will end up #37/#38 in some order by end of the day.
Just in case anyone was wondering . . . ISU (#213 RPI) is currently playing at Southern Illinois (#104 RPI). Southern will pick up 12 RPI points with a win and lose 53 RPI points with a loss. Some guesswork based upon those numbers suggests to me that Iowa would pick up very few (3-5?), if any, RPI points with a win on Tuesday and would likely lose 70+ RPI points with a loss. Not outside the realm of possibility that Iowa loses a few (3-5?) RPI points even with a win over ISU on Tuesday.
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