Federal budget deficit will rise to $1.9 trillion this fiscal year, CBO projects

[Jan Itor]

Big, beautiful walls. But seriously, a huge portion of it is going to interest. Another ginormous chunk to military spending.

If the government spent half of that single year deficit on infrastructure and half of it on mental health initiatives, drug rehab, and homelessness, this country would be a freaking utopia. But the horse is already out of the barn and we always need more cruise missiles, so yay Murica.

And speaking Chinese or Russian.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

You can blame Sinema for that.

You can’t raise it, you shouldn’t spend it. It’s called fiscal responsibility.

 

[RicoSuave102954]

He knew he wouldn’t get Republicans on board and spent the money anyway.

Biden spent your money and our grandchildren's money like a drunk sailor.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

He knew he wouldn’t get Republicans on board and spent the money anyway.

 

[lucas80]

Story by Zachary Halaschak, Washington Examiner

The federal budget deficit will be nearly $2 trillion in fiscal 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Wednesday.

The $1.9 trillion figure would be an increase from fiscal 2023’s deficit of $1.7 trillion. It is also a significant increase from the congressional scorekeeper’s February forecast that this fiscal year would end in a $1.6 trillion deficit.

The 2024 deficit will equal 7% of the U.S. gross domestic product. That is a large shortfall, by historical standards, for a period in which the country is not at war or in a major recession.

The new data are another reminder of the federal government's precarious fiscal footing going into the next decade.

“Deficits from 2024 to 2034, which total $24 trillion, are about 70% larger than their historical average over the past 50 years when measured in relation to economic output,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement. “Both net outlays for interest and primary deficits (which exclude those outlays) are large by historical standards.”

The notable increase in the deficit projection was attributable to several factors, according to the CBO.

There was a $145 billion increase in spending on student loans. That is due to Biden administration revisions to the estimated subsidy costs of previously issued loans and a proposed rule to reduce the balances of many borrowers’ student loans.

Deposit insurance spending projections increased by $70 billion because the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is not recovering payments it made to resolve bank failures last year as quickly as the CBO previously anticipated.

The increased headline deficit forecast also now factors in legislation that increased projected discretionary spending by $60 billion. Projected Medicaid spending has also increased by about $50 billion from the congressional scorekeeper’s previous estimate.

The CBO also examined the federal debt, which is set to grow over the next decade. Public debt is predicted to rise from 99% of GDP this year to a whopping 122% of GDP by 2034.

The latest update is yet another warning that the U.S. fiscal situation is on a path that most economists would say is unsustainable.

“With rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and looming trust fund insolvency, there is much more to be done to correct our fiscal path,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said last week.

“The first step is putting a stop to any new borrowing and working together to reduce the deficit,” she added. “Our fiscal house is barreling down an unsustainable path and we must act fast before tomorrow's problems become today’s.”

Republicans and fiscal conservatives have knocked Democrats and the Biden administration for not doing enough to address the deficit and national debt. Some lawmakers from both parties on Capitol Hill have been pushing to address the situation, given looming deadlines to act in the coming years.

The Medicare trust fund will be exhausted in 2036, and the combined Social Security trust fund will become exhausted in 2035, the programs’ trustees projected last month.

In January, the House Budget Committee voted to advance bipartisan legislation that would form a panel consisting of both Republican and Democratic lawmakers from both chambers of Congress, in addition to outside experts.

The committee would work to produce a report and propose legislation that would stabilize the ratio of public debt to GDP to at or below 100% within 10 years.

MSN

The Washington Examiner is pretty straight down the middle. Which candidate for president do you think has proposed the best, and most realistic plan to address the deficit?
Be specific.

 

[Jan Itor]

The Washington Examiner is pretty straight down the middle. Which candidate for president do you think has proposed the best, and most realistic plan to address the deficit?
Be specific.

Neither

 

[seminole97]

So after phucking up on your first post, you're back for more.

What's '****ed up' about Biden averaging 2 trillion dollar deficts?
I'm willing to talk about our crippling debt with anyone.
I use the data from here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/historical-tables/

Cool. Once again, thanks to the Trump tax cuts, federal revenues last year...during a time when the economy was booming...dropped half a trillion dollars from the previous year.

What 'Trump tax cuts' went into effect between 2022 and 2023?
Can you be specific?

And, twice again, that doesn't account for the revenue ABOVE that baseline that was lost. So, thrice again, it's good to have you on board with letting those tax cuts expire before they can do any more damage. Vote accordingly.

In 2022, four years after the Trump tax cuts went into effect, tax collections were higher, in absolute and share of GDP.
Individual income taxes increased from $1,587,120mm in 2017 to to $2,632,146mm in 2022.
That's an increase just a shade under +66% in tax collections, while GDP grew 30% in that time.
Even the 2023 number is a 37% increase over the collections in 2017, with the share of GDP essentially unchanged (.1% lower individuals, .1% higher corporate)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-12/how-2022-became-a-record-year-for-us-income-taxes

Americans paid out an estimated 14.7% of personal income in 2022 in what the US Bureau of Economic Analysis calls personal current taxes (mainly federal, state and local income taxes), an all-time high. But don’t worry, the percentage will be lower in 2023.

This record-setting income tax burden, and the sharp increase since 2020 that brought it to this level, was not due to new tax legislation taking effect during this period. It also wasn’t really expected — the Congressional Budget Office greatly underestimated how much income tax revenue would flow into federal coffers last year. It seems to have been the result of a pandemic asset-price boom interacting with inflation, a progressive tax code and, in a few states, the aftereffects of tax legislation enacted by Congress in 2017. The first two effects are fading, and the BEA’s monthly estimates of personal current taxes show that rates have already retraced more than half their pandemic increase since last summer.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

The Washington Examiner is pretty straight down the middle. Which candidate for president do you think has proposed the best, and most realistic plan to address the deficit?
Be specific.

neither

 

[Jan Itor]

neither

Covered in post # 46.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Covered in post # 46.

In all seriousness.

We're F'd in regards to the debt.

 

[joelbc1]

In all seriousness.

We're F'd in regards to the debt.

Nah, not really. The Republicans are in control of the budget process!

 

[seminole97]

In all seriousness.

We're F'd in regards to the debt.

Not really.
Just have to bring spending back to historical norms.
In 30 years the debt would be gone.

Forecasting to spend a higher percentage of GDP in taxes than we’ve ever collected is the recipe for failure, and it is what the Biden administration promises.

I’m ready to vote for Milei.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Not really.
Just have to bring spending back to historical norms.

Good luck with that.

Neither party is gonna do that until their force to....

 

[joelbc1]

If that holds that will put Bidens 4 yr total at $7.75T

Trump blew out the budget and his 4 yr total was $5.56T


Basically we're crewed on this front...

Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Remember…fiscal yr. Starts July 1…
The math I have seen shows Trump increased the debt $10T in his 4 yrs…you are in the tail end of Biden’s 3rd year now….no one doesn’t $$$like Trump and his GOP Congress…
Ol’ Landslide is jealous…”hold my beer…”

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Remember…fiscal yr. Starts July 1…
The math I have seen shows Trump increased the debt $10T in his 4 yrs…you are in the tail end of Biden’s 3rd year now….no one doesn’t $$$like Trump and his GOP Congress…
Ol’ Landslide is jealous…”hold my beer…”

Joe signed the ARP on 11 March 2021. It was $1.9T.

Joe gets "credit" for a lot of 2021 spending.

Placing that on Trump is "fuzzy" math

 

[LetsGoHawks83]

Unfortunately it seems that most elected representatives don't blink an eye at the deficit numbers.... It's just a number that they figure someone else will have to deal with in the future.

It's easier for them to argue and grandstand on culture war stuff.

We have a major spending issue.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Unfortunately it seems that most elected representatives don't blink an eye at the deficit numbers.... It's just a number that they figure someone else will have to deal with in the future.

It's easier for them to argue and grandstand on culture war stuff.

We have a major spending issue.

Unfortunately addressing or even talking about SS/Medicare is political kriptonite at the moment. Just kick that can down the road...

 

[seminole97]

Remember…fiscal yr. Starts July 1…

Federal fiscal year starts October 1st.
You’re as clueless as usual.

 

[Jan Itor]

Not really.
Just have to bring spending back to historical norms.
In 30 years the debt would be gone.

Forecasting to spend a higher percentage of GDP in taxes than we’ve ever collected is the recipe for failure, and it is what the Biden administration promises.

I’m ready to vote for Milei.

You think so? Watch this.

 

[83Hawk]

National debt does t matter unless the opposite party is in power

I have been harping on out of control spending and the debt since the 70's.....no matter WHICH party was in charge. This is just one of many reasons why I don't identify with either major political party (or any party for that matter). Both sides are greedy, corrupt, and only care about getting and keeping power. They don't care about We The People.