Considering the 0-3 start to the conference season, anything above .500 will be a great finish. Hell, even .500 will be a pretty good end - considering.
But I think a 5-3 - or even 6-2 - finish is very attainable, thus 12-8 (or 13-7) is my guess. But like you, I would not find a 4-4/11-9 finish to be that disappointing.
As long as there is no injury problems between now and early March, anything less than a 3-5 end to the regular season will be a major disappointment.