Financial/Wealth advisors outlook for years ahead?

[LuciousBDragon]

Not meant as a (another) political thread but wanted to see what you are hearing from your $$$ people.

My wealth manager is reporting his top brass and industry peers are prepping for a growth economy thinking the next four years will produce solid/above average yields.

The tariff talk is not scaring them yet. They don’t see it as a binary decision (no tariffs vs tariffs on everything and 10% inflation). Instead, predicting some modest tariffs and potentially other investment in China and emerging markets to offset (i.e. no $15K Chinese electric cars and that washer your wife wants may cost 5% more but the transformers the nation needs may come with a discount and help everything else).

Bottom line - pro’s seem to think good times ahead and no need to panic on tariffs/inflation. Of course, no one has a crystal ball and strategy can change at the drop of a hat, but you know that.

So, what are your professionals advising?

 

[Hawgk]

Not a professional and don’t use one, but I always keep enough in the market that I’ll be happy to capture the gains whenever it runs and enough on the sidelines in safe investments that I won’t want to blow my brains out if the market drops bigly. And if/when it starts dropping bigly I’m putting every cent of excess cashflow back into the market (provided I’m still employed).

As for the tarrifs, Trumps plan sounds way too aggressive, but even he is smart enough to stagger them and when it puts stress on the markets he’ll back off (I hope).

 

[BrianNole777]

Check the fees your wealth manager is charging you. You may be making him serious wealth.

 

[LuciousBDragon]

Check the fees your wealth manager is charging you. You may be making him serious wealth.

I am fine paying fees if I get the desired results. I can put a value on the stress of going it alone. Better to have another throat to choke other than your own.

 

[SA_Hawk]

Economy is like a coiled spring waiting to open up with a little deregulation and government out of the way.

Markets are long overdue for a sell off.
Bitcoin is going to 200,000.

 

[BrianNole777]

I am fine paying fees if I get the desired results. I can put a value on the stress of going it alone. Better to have another throat to choke other than your own.

I use Vanguard. Low fees. Diversify and invest for the long term and you'll be golden.

CSB.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Economy is like a coiled spring waiting to open up with a little deregulation and government out of the way.

Markets are long overdue for a sell off.
Bitcoin is going to 200,000.

Holy contradiction Batman.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Check the fees your wealth manager is charging you. You may be making him serious wealth.

They can also be making you more and saving you more.

 

[BrianNole777]

They can also be making you more and saving you more.

Possibly.

It can go either way.

 

[EasyHawk]

God is my wealth manager. There isn’t anything left after my tithe and my above and beyond Kingdom Builder donation.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Possibly.

It can go either way.

Of course. That can be said for pretty much every single service and trade out there.

 

[Tenacious E]

I am fine paying fees if I get the desired results. I can put a value on the stress of going it alone. Better to have another throat to choke other than your own.

Has he/she beat the S&P the last 2 years?

 

[luvmyhawks]

Has he/she beat the S&P the last 2 years?

lol. It’s actually really easy to beat the S&P 500 in the up years. That isn’t the the top priority and/or objective of any advisor/planner worth their fees.

 

[Tenacious E]

lol. It’s actually really easy to beat the S&P 500 in the up years. That isn’t the the top priority and/or objective of any advisor/planner worth their fees.

I’m up 26.2% on the year. Where is your advisor at for you after fees?* **

*edited to note that is just the price per share of my vanguard fund and does not include any money put into the fund.

** edited again to note I believe that percentage includes dividends paid by the fund. It does not include contributions.

 

[luvmyhawks]

I’m up 26.2% on the year. Where is your advisor at for you after fees?*

*edited to note that is just the price per share of my vanguard fund and does not include any money put into the fund.

Your entire portfolio is invested in that 1 fund? Bold move. What’s the ticker symbol? VOO? And apparently you missed my 2nd sentence and the entire premise of my 1st sentence. There are several vanguard funds and other etfs over 30% this year. But that is beside the point.

 

[Tenacious E]

Your entire portfolio is invested in that 1 fund? Bold move. What’s the ticker symbol? VOO? And apparently you missed my 2nd sentence and the entire premise of my 1st sentence. There are several vanguard funds and other etfs over 30% this year. But that is beside the point.

I was curious by how much your guy beat the market, which you said was quite easy to do. Maybe he/she is worth it. Maybe not. And no, my retirement fund through work is not all I have in the market or other wealth. But, for my work account, my retirement horizon is long enough and I have a comfortable salary and bonus structure, so I’m letting that part of my overall portfolio ride for now. For the vanguard fund, it is VFIAX.

 

[Tenacious E]

Holy contradiction Batman.

Our Russian trolls don’t quite understand the market.

 

[SA_Hawk]

Holy contradiction Batman.

That’s what the Bitcoin is for.

 

[noleclone2]

I am kind of bullish on economy from a non expert / life experience and history sort of way.

In simplistic ways that my brain filters things through, the economy always as booms and busts. The busts (recessions) are a sort of necessary evil to go through often, and typically followed by ramping into booms.

So IMHO for a host of reasons, 2020-2023 we experienced already a recession like event though not picked up in traditional patterns. Not quite as severe but it was a 3 plus year event. In 2024 you can see we are clearly pulling out of this largely Covid related event and the boom is waiting back half of decade.

Cliff’s notes, the first half of decade was meh due to Covid so we are poised for a boom.

 

[Tenacious E]

I am kind of bullish on economy from a non expert / life experience and history sort of way.

In simplistic ways that my brain filters things through, the economy always as booms and busts. The busts (recessions) are a sort of necessary evil to go through often, and typically followed by ramping into booms.

So IMHO for a host of reasons, 2020-2023 we experienced already a recession like event though not picked up in traditional patterns. Not quite as severe but it was a 3 plus year event. In 2024 you can see we are clearly pulling out of this largely Covid related event and the boom is waiting back half of decade.

Cliff’s notes, the first half of decade was meh due to Covid so we are poised for a boom.

In theory this is already priced into the market but I agree. We had Covid, the microchip shortage, the supply chain issues from both of the preceding, inflation from all of the preceding, Russia invade Ukraine and all of the market disruptions, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East not to mention the Afghanistan withdrawal and Israel’s war. Lots of headwinds. Hopefully Trump can ride some tailwinds and we all can prosper. I doubt it, but hope for it.

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

That’s what the Bitcoin is for.

The contradiction being referenced is the notion that the economy would start rolling while simultaneously the markets will have a sell off.

Most of the time it doesn’t work like that. The market is pricing in an expectation of what each individual security will do. Those securities are, in general, highly correlated to the economy. If investors believe the economy is going to be strong, that usually results in an appreciation of stock prices (and vice versa). So for you to expect strong economic gains combined with a market correction is unusual to say the least.

As to bitcoin…that is pure psychology at work. A true gamble play. There is little fundamental value to a bitcoin today (unless you are a ransomware organization). So all you are betting on is whether other people find it attractive. It has no connection to fundamentals.

 

[SA_Hawk]

Blackrock and JP Morgan disagree with you on Bitcoin.



https://bitcoinist.com/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-options-historic-day-1/amp/

 

[StormHawk42]

I was curious by how much your guy beat the market, which you said was quite easy to do. Maybe he/she is worth it. Maybe not. And no, my retirement fund through work is not all I have in the market or other wealth. But, for my work account, my retirement horizon is long enough and I have a comfortable salary and bonus structure, so I’m letting that part of my overall portfolio ride for now. For the vanguard fund, it is VFIAX.

He’s his own guy. He’s an advisor lol. But what he’s getting at is good financial advisors can potentially save clients a lot of money in other ways, usually thru taxes. So even in they don’t beat the market in a given year, they can show their value in other ways.

 

[Tenacious E]

He’s his own guy. He’s an advisor lol. But what he’s getting at is good financial advisors can potentially save clients a lot of money in other ways, usually thru taxes. So even in they don’t beat the market in a given year, they can show their value in other ways.

Thank you counselor. I guess I don’t really know or remember what anyone does here except for a few people.

 

[DogBoyRy]

Not meant as a (another) political thread but wanted to see what you are hearing from your $$$ people.

My wealth manager is reporting his top brass and industry peers are prepping for a growth economy thinking the next four years will produce solid/above average yields.

The tariff talk is not scaring them yet. They don’t see it as a binary decision (no tariffs vs tariffs on everything and 10% inflation). Instead, predicting some modest tariffs and potentially other investment in China and emerging markets to offset (i.e. no $15K Chinese electric cars and that washer your wife wants may cost 5% more but the transformers the nation needs may come with a discount and help everything else).

Bottom line - pro’s seem to think good times ahead and no need to panic on tariffs/inflation. Of course, no one has a crystal ball and strategy can change at the drop of a hat, but you know that.

So, what are your professionals advising?

Blue Horseshoe is fired up.
Loves Lng companies and data storage plays.

 

[OrlandNole]

We're taking a steady-as-she-goes, wait-and-see approach. No compelling reason to make any big moves at this point.

 

[bunsen82]

Looking at the valuation side compared to GDP and Buffett indicator this is 3rd most overvalued ever been. The valuations work for now because of interest rates. As they go up more money goes to fixed income or bonds. My base case is inflation starts rising again. When not sure. If some of Trump policies go through sooner than later. My goal is to hoard a lot of cash early next year, as I see little upside left. I’m fine getting 4% in a money market account.

As to Bitcoin, as long as financial markets are viable, there will be value to Bitcoin. I understand your view, I was there for 8 years tracking it. There is more trust in Bitcoin than gold. Even still going to have momentum switch to ethereum then alts, then start its 1 year crash next fall. It’s literally clockwork. My Mstr is stupidly valued. I have calls sold at 180 and 260. I bought at 150 . . . Pre 10 to 1 split in 2022.

I have depression risks 5%, recession 45%, stagflation 30%, growing market 20%. Next decade looks rough to me.

 

[DogBoyRy]

I was curious by how much your guy beat the market, which you said was quite easy to do. Maybe he/she is worth it. Maybe not. And no, my retirement fund through work is not all I have in the market or other wealth. But, for my work account, my retirement horizon is long enough and I have a comfortable salary and bonus structure, so I’m letting that part of my overall portfolio ride for now. For the vanguard fund, it is VFIAX.

Blue horseshoe has been about 8% over average since our family has started using him 10 plus years ago.
Brilliant guy who works for Whalen global.
Only big miss was a couple years ago where he went short dollar vs yen.
Biggest win was oil during covid dip plus some techs.

 

[FranklinHawk]

It'll be interesting. I've had several key vendors telling me the timeline for product deliveries is getting longer due to many corporations ordering a bunch of stuff due to fear of supply chain shortages if/when tariffs kick in. Then again, they might just be trying to jack up their end of year revenues..

 

[tarheelbybirth]

God is my wealth manager. There isn’t anything left after my tithe and my above and beyond Kingdom Builder donation.

At least you're set for the hereafter if not necessarily the here.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

bitcoin will leave a lot of little people with less money.

 

[seminoledq]

Not meant as a (another) political thread but wanted to see what you are hearing from your $$$ people.

My wealth manager is reporting his top brass and industry peers are prepping for a growth economy thinking the next four years will produce solid/above average yields.

The tariff talk is not scaring them yet. They don’t see it as a binary decision (no tariffs vs tariffs on everything and 10% inflation). Instead, predicting some modest tariffs and potentially other investment in China and emerging markets to offset (i.e. no $15K Chinese electric cars and that washer your wife wants may cost 5% more but the transformers the nation needs may come with a discount and help everything else).

Bottom line - pro’s seem to think good times ahead and no need to panic on tariffs/inflation. Of course, no one has a crystal ball and strategy can change at the drop of a hat, but you know that.

So, what are your professionals advising?

Met with my guy earlier this week and he said pretty much the same thing. One minor change we're making is getting out of some funds that are meant for times of rising interest rates and switching to some that are better in times of even to falling rates.

 

[BrunoMars420]

The contradiction being referenced is the notion that the economy would start rolling while simultaneously the markets will have a sell off.

Most of the time it doesn’t work like that. The market is pricing in an expectation of what each individual security will do. Those securities are, in general, highly correlated to the economy. If investors believe the economy is going to be strong, that usually results in an appreciation of stock prices (and vice versa). So for you to expect strong economic gains combined with a market correction is unusual to say the least.

As to bitcoin…that is pure psychology at work. A true gamble play. There is little fundamental value to a bitcoin today (unless you are a ransomware organization). So all you are betting on is whether other people find it attractive. It has no connection to fundamentals.

Good post until BTC. “Little fundamental value unless you are a ransomware organization” “has no connection to fundamentals” lol

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

Good post until BTC. “Little fundamental value unless you are a ransomware organization” “has no connection to fundamentals” lol

BTC is like any other speculative asset. It is worth what people will pay for it. Fundamentally though, the stuff you can buy with bitcoin remains very limited. Maybe someday it will become a de facto currency, but today it is not. If it was valued based on the fundamentals of what you can actually buy it would be damn near worthless.

The reason for its inflated value is not because of the fundamentals, it is because of people believing someone else will pay more for it in the future. It is a psychological rationale, not a fundamental one.

 

[goldmom]

I talked to “my guy” yesterday and my little pile is doing pretty well at this point.
He happens to be my brother and he’s been a very successful FA for decades. He sees good things for what we invested in and the next four years to be good for the market. That’s as specific as I’ll get.
He’s not buying into the terrible tariff stuff and like many sees it as a negotiation tactic.

 

[BrunoMars420]

BTC is like any other speculative asset. It is worth what people will pay for it. Fundamentally though, the stuff you can buy with bitcoin remains very limited. Maybe someday it will become a de facto currency, but today it is not. If it was valued based on the fundamentals of what you can actually buy it would be damn near worthless.

The reason for its inflated value is not because of the fundamentals, it is because of people believing someone else will pay more for it in the future. It is a psychological rationale, not a fundamental one.

You can buy everything with BTC, what are you talking about? Also how is the value inflated?

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

You can buy everything with BTC, what are you talking about? Also how is the value inflated?

It’s a technical distinction but using a bitcoin based debit or credit card is not actually buying stuff with bitcoin. It’s selling your bitcoin to an intermediary that is then buying your stuff with cash. The number of companies like Tesla that accept BTC is very small.

Anyway, technicality aside in practical purposes you are right you can buy stuff because the middlemen exist. Having said that my point stands the value of your bitcoin is being set mostly by market psychology.

 

[BrunoMars420]

It’s a technical distinction but using a bitcoin based debit or credit card is not actually buying stuff with bitcoin. It’s selling your bitcoin to an intermediary that is then buying your stuff with cash. The number of companies like Tesla that accept BTC is very small.

Anyway, technicality aside in practical purposes you are right you can buy stuff because the middlemen exist. Having said that my point stands the value of your bitcoin is being set mostly by market psychology.

Agree to disagree. Thanks for your input on the topic

 

[thewop]

Not meant as a (another) political thread but wanted to see what you are hearing from your $$$ people.

My wealth manager is reporting his top brass and industry peers are prepping for a growth economy thinking the next four years will produce solid/above average yields.

The tariff talk is not scaring them yet. They don’t see it as a binary decision (no tariffs vs tariffs on everything and 10% inflation). Instead, predicting some modest tariffs and potentially other investment in China and emerging markets to offset (i.e. no $15K Chinese electric cars and that washer your wife wants may cost 5% more but the transformers the nation needs may come with a discount and help everything else).

Bottom line - pro’s seem to think good times ahead and no need to panic on tariffs/inflation. Of course, no one has a crystal ball and strategy can change at the drop of a hat, but you know that.

So, what are your professionals advising?

The dollar has been Extremely strong off the Trump win. The election night chart against the euro is insane.

All day on election day the euro climbed against the dollar, up over $1.09/euro, but as election results started coming in the dollar strengthened considerably, it bounced a bit but has continued, dropping under $1.04 overnight before bouncing back up a bit. Parity is not out of the question.

Crypto has also been very strong, beyond just Bitcoin, although crypto people had said before the election that a trump win would help crypto significantly.

The markets have definitely responded. Who knows if it'll last, but generally the market accepts that the environment will be more friendly to business and consumer spending if Republicans are in charge. This excitement will surely wane though to some degree.

There will be an argument 3 years from now about how great the markets performed by the end of Biden's presidency and what was responsible for it. That'll be fun, although in the moment there's no debating it was trump-fueled optimism (and a little fear/apprehension from Europe).

 

[noStemsnoSTICKS]

Economy is like a coiled spring waiting to open up with a little deregulation and government out of the way.

Markets are long overdue for a sell off.
Bitcoin is going to 200,000.

Really?

What economic indicators do you foresee "opening up"? Please include the range of improvement you're expecting.