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GW Predictions fall short

Actually we've never discussed the tipping point before, there, Einstein. As for this silly thread, what the tipping point actually means is not the point where everything starts going to hell. That's just a made up denier talking point to avoid what the real scientists are saying. It refers to the point where we can no longer go back to normal conditions because what greenhouse gases we've pumped in the atmosphere are there to stay. For chrissake, read an actual science article for once, guys.
Another duck and dodge.

How hard can it be for you to answer with a yes, no, or even a maybe on the subject - Einstein. We all figure you know because you have read everything that you agree with on climate change.

What we all want to know is have we reached it not how you define it.
 
Another duck and dodge.

How hard can it be for you to answer with a yes, no, or even a maybe on the subject - Einstein. We all figure you know because you have read everything that you agree with on climate change.

What we all want to know is have we reached it not how you define it.
I've already defined it. And the reason I haven't answered if we've hit the tipping point is because nobody knows for sure where it is. Nobody knows for sure what the exact consequences of CC will be. All we know for sure is that pumping billions of tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere causes the earth surface to appreciably warm, a point your side keeps ignoring. Maybe you think that humans having the power to effect entire climates, temperatures, and weather systems is nothing to worry about, but the vast majority of experts disagree. I would prefer to error on the side of caution.
 
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I've already defined it. And the reason I haven't answered if we've hit the tipping point is because nobody knows for sure where it is. Nobody knows for sure what the exact consequences of CC will be. All we know for sure is that pumping billions of tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere causes the earth surface to appreciably warm, a point your side keeps ignoring. Maybe you think that humans having the power to effect entire climates, temperatures, and weather systems is nothing to worry about, but the vast majority of experts disagree. I would prefer to error on the side of caution.

Actually water vapor is what drives the climate cycles. CO2 is a lagging effect. But since you've never examined both sides of the issue you aren't very knowledgeable.
 
Actually we've never discussed the tipping point before, there, Einstein. As for this silly thread, what the tipping point actually means is not the point where everything starts going to hell. That's just a made up denier talking point to avoid what the real scientists are saying. It refers to the point where we can no longer go back to normal conditions because what greenhouse gases we've pumped in the atmosphere are there to stay..

Actually, the "tipping point" generally refers to the point where a future 2+ degree warming is locked in and feedbacks like melting permafrost and the collapse of the Amazon ecosystem start kicking in that will drive temps higher. We might have an opportunity to stabilize global temps at ~2 degrees C but it would require an extinction level event amongst the deniers. We're probably not at the climate tipping point yet but we passed the political tipping point years ago. We're not going to change.

We'll not see a return to "normal conditions" for....well...a really long time, if ever.

BTW, the Marshall Islands are becoming uninhabitable rather quickly. Thanks to our close relationship with them, anyone who wishes is guaranteed a spot in the US. 70,000 islanders will be heading our way soon.
 
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As the leading environmentalist on the planet the burden falls to me to lead by example. Get ready for some awesome recycling.

 
First thing I thought of when you said "G W prediction falls short?"

mission_accomplished_bush.jpg
 
For decades now, those concerned about global warming have been predicting the so-called “tipping point” — the point beyond which it’ll be too late to stave off catastrophic global warming.

It seems like every year the “tipping point” is close to being reached, and that the world must get rid of fossil fuels to save the planet. That is, until we’ve passed that deadline and the next such “tipping point” is predicted.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/2...e-global-warming-tipping-point/#ixzz3zy62HJWT

Hey hey hey my friend. It turns out the continents are drinking the oceans and that's why the seas are not rising. So if we can find a way to put the continents on an inclined treadmill and keep them nice and sweaty . . . problem solved!
 
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No, I just know the history of GW alarmists and their extremely poor predictions.

You mean like this one?

1_SAR_2012.jpg

Figure 4: IPCC SAR Scenario IS92a global surface temperature projection (blue) vs. observed surface temperature changes (average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4; red) for 1990 through 2012.

 
You mean like this one?

1_SAR_2012.jpg

Figure 4: IPCC SAR Scenario IS92a global surface temperature projection (blue) vs. observed surface temperature changes (average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4; red) for 1990 through 2012.
Too be fair, only one of those observed temps is even almost on the line. Technically, they were wrong every year. I'm not sure that technicality will allow deniers to slip past St. Peter. I may be hanging out in Hell with a whole lot of Republicans. In fact that sounds a lot like what Hell would be.
 
I've already defined it. And the reason I haven't answered if we've hit the tipping point is because nobody knows for sure where it is. Nobody knows for sure what the exact consequences of CC will be. All we know for sure is that pumping billions of tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere causes the earth surface to appreciably warm, a point your side keeps ignoring. Maybe you think that humans having the power to effect entire climates, temperatures, and weather systems is nothing to worry about, but the vast majority of experts disagree. I would prefer to error on the side of caution.
You'll be dead before the party commences. Quit whining.
 
John Stossel? You serious with this crap? I also don't think you get the irony of laying into movie stars when you just got done linking a piece by a movie star "journalist."

Oh, you did that thing where you ignored the Nobel laureate in a different video in this same thread. Do ya see how that works? You Cherry-pick which pieces of information you will allow your diseased brain to digest. Just like the emotion-driven fanatics in your movement cherry-pick which data to exaggerate while ignoring other pieces of data which disprove their apocalyptic religion.
 
Anyone want to take a stab at addressing the real issues?

It is not 'my belief' that all the recent warming is manmade.

It is my observation and understanding that:
  • Solar output is mostly unchanged for at least 70 years, and in fact has dropped in the past 2 decades. New analysis of historical sunspot data implies solar output has been in a 'lull' for the past several hundred years. Thus, it is highly unlikely that solar output variations, which are either stable at best and more likely decreasing, can explain recent warming - they should be causing a very limited and slow cooling.
  • Milankovitch cycles occur on a range of 100,000 to 400,000 years, and we are already past the peak of the last cycle and on the 'downward' side. Thus, it is highly improbable (bordering on completely impossible) that these cycles can explain the recent warming - we should be experiencing an unmeasureable (on a century-scale) cooling.
  • A complex system like our climate certainly has lots of internal variability, BUT in order for it to move significantly in one direction or another, there MUST be some forcing causing the change. The Earth and Earth's oceans simply have a massive specific heat value which will not allow major shifts in global temperature unless there is an imbalanced forcing, like solar output (which noted above, is stable or decreasing).
  • ENSO variation can influence decadal temperatures, but cannot explain consistent warming over the past century. A simple look at ENSO vs. global temperatures shows rapid warming during any El Nino dominated decade, and NO COOLING, but instead stable temperatures during La Nina dominated periods. If the Earth's temperature were stable, we SHOULD see some cooling during La Nina periods but we don't.
  • The ONLY variable that we have been able to track which is consistent with recent warming is GHG levels, particularly CO2 levels. Those levels are entirely driven my man-made influences, which is well documented by analyzing isotope levels for the C in the CO2; we KNOW that the 'new' CO2 has been sequestered for millennia because of the isotope ratios - either as oil, coal or natural gas. Thus, we KNOW we are the one causing the CO2 runup, and it is presently the ONLY variable consistent with the warming.
So, I don't "believe" that we are responsible, I am deducing we are responsible because no one has identified any 'natural mechanism' that can explain the temperature increases and observations. And nearly ALL climate scientists are in agreement on that. Even Exxon's internal documents predicted it was going to happen 30 years ago based on CO2 pollution.
 
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Do you think Sandy Hook was a false flag operation staged by the govt?

Did you watch the video? Of did you do that thing where you investigate one side of an issue and declare yourself an expert on both sides of the issue?
 
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