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Halfway Home: What’s Good with Hawk Hoops?

unoHawkeye

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Jul 30, 2015
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Folks, we’re 17 games through a 31-game regular season slate. With one game guaranteed in the Big Ten Tournament and one game looking all but guaranteed afterwards (NIT or March Madness), the unfaltering optimist in me says that we’re at or almost to the halfway point in the 2021-22 Hawkeye basketball season!

Since we’re all Hawk fans here, despite the stupid bickering which permeate the board (and that I am infrequently involved in), I wanted to hear some of the things that are keeping you all tuned in to watch the Black and Gold on a week-in, week-out basis. I’ll start… and let’s keep it positive!

1) I think I predicted an NIT appearance for the Hawks prior to the season. Sitting at 13-4, zero bad losses, and four losses to teams currently ranked in the top 17 in the new AP poll (three on the road, and a narrow loss at home to now #17 Illinois), this squad is tracking directly for the bubble with some of their most difficult games behind them. Could any have predicted a top 20 NET ranking at any point during the season given what was lost off of last year’s team? Not I, said the fly.

2) Keegan Murray. I’m not sure that anybody outside of the Murray family or Hawkeye program could have predicted the jump in performance between Keegan’s 2021 and 2022 seasons. The guy has been doing everything for our program, is going to be a first team all Big Ten player, likely first team All American, and likely future lottery pick. His play late in both the Illinois and Minnesota games have even shown that he has that clutch gene… and I think that the best is yet to come!

3) How about that offense? After losing two players to the NBA (including top scorer in program history), one starter to the transfer portal, and the would-be starting 5, Iowa’s managed to come back and rank #3 in offensive efficiency per Kenyon, and score the 4th most points per game in all of D1. I know the next point is “yeah, but what about the defense?” Ignore it! Just kidding, but we’ve shown the ability to play pretty stout defense at times. The numbers don’t look good, but you can point to the first half against Virginia, stretches against Purdue, the second half against Indiana, and the first half against Minnesota as times when our defense has looked as good as anybody else’s while our offense has continued performing at a high level. We’re to the point where we know that the squad has it in them, but needs to put it together for a full game! Many posters predicted that this would be a team that improves over the course of the season, and I think that we are seeing exactly that. I believe they can do it!

Alright let’s hear it. What’s got you excited about Iowa hoops?
 
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A minus 29 rebounding margin (and 24 second chance points given up) cost us dearly in the 4 point home loss to Illinois.

However, in our last 2 games, which we won, we won the rebounding battle.

+4 (35-31) vs Indiana
+9 (40-31) at Minnesota

Right now ESPN has us projected as a 7 seed. If we continue to do a better job on the glass, this team has a great chance of making the Big Dance.
 
A minus 29 rebounding margin (and 24 second chance points given up) cost us dearly in the 4 point home loss to Illinois.

However, in our last 2 games, which we won, we won the rebounding battle.

+4 (35-31) vs Indiana
+9 (40-31) at Minnesota

Right now ESPN has us projected as a 7 seed. If we continue to do a better job on the glass, this team has a great chance of making the Big Dance.
The amount of teams with a skilled 7 footer, or two, who would pose major problems for Iowa on the glass is disproportionately high in the Big Ten. If the Hawks do go dancing, it seems unlikely that they would play such a team in the first round (if they’re a 7-seed, then we might be in trouble in the round of 32 against a 2-seed)
 
2) Keegan Murray. I’m not sure that anybody outside of the Murray family or Hawkeye program could have predicted the jump in performance between Keegan’s 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Got questioned by Dad when I questioned after last season and before this one, how he was an NBA player. Obviously, I was wrong but I didn't see the Keegan Murray we are seeing today, last year.
 
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The amount of teams with a skilled 7 footer, or two, who would pose major problems for Iowa on the glass is disproportionately high in the Big Ten. If the Hawks do go dancing, it seems unlikely that they would play such a team in the first round (if they’re a 7-seed, then we might be in trouble in the round of 32 against a 2-seed)


Yeah, I just want to see this team boxing out and fighting for the basketball over these last 14 conference games. They can do it; they have shown they can do it. I will be watching to see if they do it. :)

What I will be interested to see is how we do in some of these upcoming games vs B1G teams with size.

Examples:

(1) At Rutgers on Jan 19 has Cliff Omoruyi, 6'11, 240 lbs

(2) Home vs Purdue on Jan 27 has 7'4 Zach Edey and 6'10, 255 lb Trevion Williams

(3) We play Michigan twice yet. Will they get things figured out? How will we do against 7'1, 260 lb Hunter Dickinson, who even gave Garza fits last year?

(4) Michigan State at home on Feb 22 has 7'0, 230 lb senior Marcus Bingham

(5) We end conference play on March 6. Can we do a better job on 7'0, 285 lb Kofi Cockburn?


We know we can score. If we rebound the basketball, I feel that we have a chance to have a good ending to the season.

And I would sign up for that 7 seed today, if offered. :)
 
Got questioned by Dad when I questioned after last season and before this one, how he was an NBA player. Obviously, I was wrong but I didn't see the Keegan Murray we are seeing today, last year.
I didn’t think it was a stretch that Keegan could be a pro, and even leave after this year, given his measurables, athleticism, and instincts (which is a lot of what the Association drafts on). However, like you, the jump he’s made to become a leading scorer in the country who puts the team at his back at times is something I never foresaw. Super cool to watch
 
Folks, we’re 17 games through a 31-game regular season slate. With one game guaranteed in the Big Ten Tournament and one game looking all but guaranteed afterwards (NIT or March Madness), the unfaltering optimist in me says that we’re at or almost to the halfway point in the 2021-22 Hawkeye basketball season!

Since we’re all Hawk fans here, despite the stupid cat fights which permeate the board (and that I am infrequently involved in), I wanted to hear some of the things that are keeping you all tuned in to watch the Black and Gold on a week-in, week-out basis. I’ll start… and let’s keep it positive!

1) I think I predicted an NIT appearance for the Hawks prior to the season. Sitting at 13-4, zero bad losses, and four losses to teams currently ranked in the top 17 in the new AP poll (three on the road, and a narrow loss at home to now #17 Illinois), this squad is tracking directly for the bubble with some of their most difficult games behind them. Could any have predicted a top 20 NET ranking at any point during the season given what was lost off of last year’s team? Not I, said the fly.

2) Keegan Murray. I’m not sure that anybody outside of the Murray family or Hawkeye program could have predicted the jump in performance between Keegan’s 2021 and 2022 seasons. The guy has been doing everything for our program, is going to be a first team all Big Ten player, likely first team All American, and likely future lottery pick. His play late in both the Illinois and Minnesota games have even shown that he has that clutch gene… and I think that the best is yet to come!

3) How about that offense? After losing two players to the NBA (including top scorer in program history), one starter to the transfer portal, and the would-be starting 5, Iowa’s managed to come back and rank #3 in offensive efficiency per Kenyon, and score the 4th most points per game in all of D1. I know the next point is “yeah, but what about the defense?” Ignore it! Just kidding, but we’ve shown the ability to play pretty stout defense at times. The numbers don’t look good, but you can point to the first half against Virginia, stretches against Purdue, the second half against Indiana, and the first half against Minnesota as times when our defense has looked as good as anybody else’s while our offense has continued performing at a high level. We’re to the point where we know that the squad has it in them, but needs to put it together for a full game! Many posters predicted that this would be a team that improves over the course of the season, and I think that we are seeing exactly that. I believe they can do it!

Alright let’s hear it. What’s got you excited about Iowa hoops?
Nice post!

The three-quarter court press has been more effective than expected. The man has been survivable provided don't overdo it with help/collapsing (won't speak about the zone!). I'd even say the Toussaint/Ulis/Perkins combo allows some ball pressure not recently in the repertoire, which gives some faith the team can get stops/make a comeback if needed.

Rebraca continuing to grow and find confidence may be the key to the team's success the next few months.

Just find a way to Dance and you never know how things shake out.
 
I totally understand our press is to slow down the game and have less shot clock. but man have we been getting some turnovers and points off of our press.

I also believe we are going to start shooting the ball even better from 3 range.
 
Alot of positives this far into the season. Off. efficiency, especially K&K Murray. I think Rebraca is starting to figure out B10 play and showing steady improvement even though he is being tasked to play Center instead of his natural position (PF). Joe Touissant has really stepped up his game, a major plus...second only to Keegan IMO.

I thought Bohannon's return would be a net positive (and it still may be) but IMO Fran has failed to find a way to get JB a few open 3PT looks per game. If you have the most prolific 3PT shooter in Iowa history returning for a 6th year you should be able to draw up a couple plays to get him isolated every game. In any event, his late game FT shooting is exceedingly valuable.

Ogendule should be getting more playing time against the big Center opponents IMO (Purdue & Illinois, e.g.).

I predicted a 5/6 place B10 finish and that is certainly within the realm of possibility.... likely if the defensive intensity and rebounding improves.
 
Nice post!

The three-quarter court press has been more effective than expected. The man has been survivable provided don't overdo it with help/collapsing (won't speak about the zone!). I'd even say the Toussaint/Ulis/Perkins combo allows some ball pressure not recently in the repertoire, which gives some faith the team can get stops/make a comeback if needed.

Rebraca continuing to grow and find confidence may be the key to the team's success the next few months.

Just find a way to Dance and you never know how things shake out.
Love your comments on the press! In addition to slowing the game down and forcing turnovers (which, as Zuma acknowledged seems to be happening at a greater rate than ever this year), one thing that the press does effectively if it’s broken is speed up pace. Occasionally this backfires, but a lot of times, opposing teams who break the press quickly chuck a quick three. Giving up open threes isn’t ideal, but when it comes so early in the shot clock, it may not be the best shot. It either goes in and Iowa is pushing tempo the other way, or it misses and Iowa is pushing the tempo the other way. It’s super conducive to the fast pace that Fran likes to play at
 
Alot of positives this far into the season. Off. efficiency, especially K&K Murray. I think Rebraca is starting to figure out B10 play and showing steady improvement even though he is being tasked to play Center instead of his natural position (PF). Joe Touissant has really stepped up his game, a major plus...second only to Keegan IMO.

I thought Bohannon's return would be a net positive (and it still may be) but IMO Fran has failed to find a way to get JB a few open 3PT looks per game. If you have the most prolific 3PT shooter in Iowa history returning for a 6th year you should be able to draw up a couple plays to get him isolated every game. In any event, his late game FT shooting is exceedingly valuable.

Ogendule should be getting more playing time against the big Center opponents IMO (Purdue & Illinois, e.g.).

I predicted a 5/6 place B10 finish and that is certainly within the realm of possibility.... likely if the defensive intensity and rebounding improves.
For all of Iowa’s rebounding woes, one thing that they are really good at is attacking the offensive glass. When it comes to second chance points, this is where Bohannon can be super dangerous. We saw multiple times yesterday, Minnesota defenders drop down low to crash the glass, get out of position, and one of the Murray’s or Rebraca grab the board and kick it out to Bohannon for an open three. They weren’t falling yesterday, but for a career 40% shooter, the law of averages say that some of those will start to drop

I do agree that Iowa could work a little harder to get some open looks for Bohannon, though his presence in and of itself has opened up a lot of room for the Murray’s, Rebraca, Toussaint, and Pat to operate in the lane, and is one reason their FG%’s are all so high
 
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As of today, ESPN's predictor says a very nice year for the Hawks. I still find it hard to believe, but I'd sign up for this yesterday:

Iowa
Big Ten13-422.7-8.33-312.7-7.3


if its not too much of a trouble, can you summarize who Iowa is predicted to beat over the next 14 games and what record they have us finishing at?
 
if its not too much of a trouble, can you summarize who Iowa is predicted to beat over the next 14 games and what record they have us finishing at?
I think that those decimal’d records are what they have us predicted to finish at… so 22-23 wins and 9-8 losses overall and 12-13 wins and 8-7 losses in conference. Not sure if they do a game by game breakdown or not though
 
I think that those decimal’d records are what they have us predicted to finish at… so 22-23 wins and 9-8 losses overall and 12-13 wins and 8-7 losses in conference. Not sure if they do a game by game breakdown or not though
I think if you just go through the FPI on each game in the schedule on ESPN it will show you where the results are coming from.
 
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The good news is that the Hawks have a bunch of talented players that play hard, pass pretty well and don't turn the ball over much. Keegan obviously a star.
Iowa is #2 in the nation as a team in assist/turnovers, and has the 17th fewest turnovers which is pretty incredible 1) given the amount of possessions they have per game and 2) only Wisconsin (who has the third fewest turnovers in the country) has played 16+ games to Iowa’s 17
 
Folks, we’re 17 games through a 31-game regular season slate. With one game guaranteed in the Big Ten Tournament and one game looking all but guaranteed afterwards (NIT or March Madness), the unfaltering optimist in me says that we’re at or almost to the halfway point in the 2021-22 Hawkeye basketball season!

Since we’re all Hawk fans here, despite the stupid cat fights which permeate the board (and that I am infrequently involved in), I wanted to hear some of the things that are keeping you all tuned in to watch the Black and Gold on a week-in, week-out basis. I’ll start… and let’s keep it positive!

1) I think I predicted an NIT appearance for the Hawks prior to the season. Sitting at 13-4, zero bad losses, and four losses to teams currently ranked in the top 17 in the new AP poll (three on the road, and a narrow loss at home to now #17 Illinois), this squad is tracking directly for the bubble with some of their most difficult games behind them. Could any have predicted a top 20 NET ranking at any point during the season given what was lost off of last year’s team? Not I, said the fly.

2) Keegan Murray. I’m not sure that anybody outside of the Murray family or Hawkeye program could have predicted the jump in performance between Keegan’s 2021 and 2022 seasons. The guy has been doing everything for our program, is going to be a first team all Big Ten player, likely first team All American, and likely future lottery pick. His play late in both the Illinois and Minnesota games have even shown that he has that clutch gene… and I think that the best is yet to come!

3) How about that offense? After losing two players to the NBA (including top scorer in program history), one starter to the transfer portal, and the would-be starting 5, Iowa’s managed to come back and rank #3 in offensive efficiency per Kenyon, and score the 4th most points per game in all of D1. I know the next point is “yeah, but what about the defense?” Ignore it! Just kidding, but we’ve shown the ability to play pretty stout defense at times. The numbers don’t look good, but you can point to the first half against Virginia, stretches against Purdue, the second half against Indiana, and the first half against Minnesota as times when our defense has looked as good as anybody else’s while our offense has continued performing at a high level. We’re to the point where we know that the squad has it in them, but needs to put it together for a full game! Many posters predicted that this would be a team that improves over the course of the season, and I think that we are seeing exactly that. I believe they can do it!

Alright let’s hear it. What’s got you excited about Iowa hoops?
Said a few games ago when were were 0-2 in the BT, to get us in much better shape and the schedule was there to do it. Win 5 of the next 6. So here we are now at 3-3 with 2 very winnable games in front of us. Rutger will certainly be tough and physical. But it is there for the taking. It would be nice to be 5-3 with Purdue going to town.
 
As of today, ESPN's predictor says a very nice year for the Hawks. I still find it hard to believe, but I'd sign up for this yesterday:

Iowa
Big Ten13-422.7-8.33-312.7-7.3


I think that those decimal’d records are what they have us predicted to finish at… so 22-23 wins and 9-8 losses overall and 12-13 wins and 8-7 losses in conference. Not sure if they do a game by game breakdown or not though


I looked into it.

Based on what follows, it looks like we should expect to finish 23-8. ;)

This is the ESPN Matchup Predictor, which gives Iowa the following chance to win each of the following games:

65.4% at Rutgers (@MrsScrew )
91.9% vs PSU
48.3% vs Purdue
71.6% at PSU
45.2% at OSU
88.6% vs Minny
64.4% at Maryland
95.4% vs Nebby
78.5% vs Michigan
75.0 % vs MSU
84.4% at Nebby
83.7% vs N'western
50.7% at Michigan
23.4% at Illinois


LINK:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401364390
 
I looked into it.

Based on what follows, it looks like we should expect to finish 23-8. ;)

This is the ESPN Matchup Predictor, which gives Iowa the following chance to win each of the following games:

65.4% at Rutgers (@MrsScrew )
91.9% vs PSU
48.3% vs Purdue
71.6% at PSU
45.2% at OSU
88.6% vs Minny
64.4% at Maryland
95.4% vs Nebby
78.5% vs Michigan
75.0 % vs MSU
84.4% at Nebby
83.7% vs N'western
50.7% at Michigan
23.4% at Illinois


LINK:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401364390

Thanks for doing this! Looking more closely at February, it sure looks manageable as of today.

I know folks like to harp on the (fallacy that is the)Fran February Fade, hopefully the team has a chance to change that narrative this year.
 
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Thanks for doing this! Looking more closely at February, it sure looks manageable as of today.

I know folks like to harp on the (fallacy that is the)Fran February Fade, hopefully the team has a chance to change that narrative this year.

With Kris Murray….this can be our trump card! I believe we will keep progressing!!
 
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Alot of positives this far into the season. Off. efficiency, especially K&K Murray. I think Rebraca is starting to figure out B10 play and showing steady improvement even though he is being tasked to play Center instead of his natural position (PF). Joe Touissant has really stepped up his game, a major plus...second only to Keegan IMO.

I thought Bohannon's return would be a net positive (and it still may be) but IMO Fran has failed to find a way to get JB a few open 3PT looks per game. If you have the most prolific 3PT shooter in Iowa history returning for a 6th year you should be able to draw up a couple plays to get him isolated every game. In any event, his late game FT shooting is exceedingly valuable.

Ogendule should be getting more playing time against the big Center opponents IMO (Purdue & Illinois, e.g.).

I predicted a 5/6 place B10 finish and that is certainly within the realm of possibility.... likely if the defensive intensity and rebounding improves.
I think Big O was on his way until the injury. It held up his progress and conditioning such that he took a step back. I hope he comes on strong in February.
 
I looked into it.

Based on what follows, it looks like we should expect to finish 23-8. ;)

This is the ESPN Matchup Predictor, which gives Iowa the following chance to win each of the following games:

65.4% at Rutgers (@MrsScrew )
91.9% vs PSU
48.3% vs Purdue
71.6% at PSU
45.2% at OSU
88.6% vs Minny
64.4% at Maryland
95.4% vs Nebby
78.5% vs Michigan
75.0 % vs MSU
84.4% at Nebby
83.7% vs N'western
50.7% at Michigan
23.4% at Illinois


LINK:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401364390
I would think that several posters on this board would laugh at this. I am surprised myself that ESPN is so high on Iowa, but the win at VA and the close battles with PU and IL must help. I also think that those aforementioned posters don't have as much faith in the coaching staff as it appears ESPN does. 😉
 
I would think that several posters on this board would laugh at this. I am surprised myself that ESPN is so high on Iowa, but the win at VA and the close battles with PU and IL must help. I also think that those aforementioned posters don't have as much faith in the coaching staff as it appears ESPN does. 😉



Yeah, 23-8 (13-7 B1G) sounds too good to be true.

Last season, in comparison, we finished the regular season at 21-8 (14-6 B1G).
I had zero luck finding info on how the ESPN Matchup Predictor works, what went into it, etc.
 
While Fran stands on the sidelines with his hands in his pockets while the opposing teams abuse our front line with their 7 footers, he ignores our two bigs.... Mulvey and Ogundele both need to see playing time, but until he sees the light, I expect Iowa to lose at least 12 of the next 18 games because of his substitution ignorance which includes the Big Ten Tournament and miss getting in the NCAA tournament.
 
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While Fran stands on the sidelines with his hands in his pockets while the opposing teams abuse our front line with their 7 footers, he ignores our two bigs.... Mulvey and Ogundele both need to see playing time, but until he sees the light, I expect Iowa to lose at least 12 of the next 18 games because of his substitution ignorance which includes the Big Ten Tournament and miss getting in the NCAA tournament.

How did you come up with 18 games??


giphy.gif
 
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While Fran stands on the sidelines with his hands in his pockets while the opposing teams abuse our front line with their 7 footers, he ignores our two bigs.... Mulvey and Ogundele both need to see playing time, but until he sees the light, I expect Iowa to lose at least 12 of the next 18 games because of his substitution ignorance which includes the Big Ten Tournament and miss getting in the NCAA tournament.
We were doing so well too. 28 posts in ain’t bad I guess
 
I like the overall talent on this team. They are in every game despite being really young. Everyone seems to think we are going to lose both Murry's in the next year or two. It's possible, if not probable, but before this season, Keegan was the only one getting any meaningful minutes. Keegans improvement has been really impressive, and Kris these last few games has started finishing though contact like he couldn't do earlier in the year. These guys are only sophomore's
as are Ulis, Perkins, and Pat, and you can definitely see growth that should continue, as they get used to Big 10 competition. Joe has been playing well and is playing much more consistent this year. He is starting to show real signs of being the kind of leader this team will need going into the tournaments. I didn't expect much from Peyton coming in, but he's much better than I gave him credit for. Give him and the bigs another year and they will be solid contributors. This team is young but they're learning fast.
 
Keegan has surpassed my expectations, Kris playing time has been less than I expected. I expected an upgrade in defense and the defense/rebounding looks to be worse than I expected. I thought this year's team would have potential to do better than last year's team, IF they make the NCAA tourney...which is still in doubt.

While getting to 3-3 is a good thing, I think the negative posts are related to the fear that Fran will not make correct moves and Iowa will end up with an under 0.500 B1G records. As great as 0.500 seems to be, it really only means you have an average basketball team among you comparable peers with similar athletic budgets, resources--that is not a negative post, just reality.
 
Keegan has surpassed my expectations, Kris playing time has been less than I expected. I expected an upgrade in defense and the defense/rebounding looks to be worse than I expected. I thought this year's team would have potential to do better than last year's team, IF they make the NCAA tourney...which is still in doubt.

While getting to 3-3 is a good thing, I think the negative posts are related to the fear that Fran will not make correct moves and Iowa will end up with an under 0.500 B1G records. As great as 0.500 seems to be, it really only means you have an average basketball team among you comparable peers with similar athletic budgets, resources--that is not a negative post, just reality.
The good news is, research says that about 91% of what we worry about never comes to fruition! The shortfalls on this team are easily observable and much-discussed. Rebounding, defense, and minute distribution seems to pretty much cover the bases, and I’ve posted quite a bit about all three

That said, IF Iowa does finish .500+ and goes dancing, all the negativity will have been for nothing because that would meet or exceed any expectations that a reasonable fan could have had for this team given what was lost last year. The point of this thread was that it’s okay to sometimes enjoy what we’re tuning into and recognize some of the positives in conjunction with how we can be better… because this is a fun team to watch and they are doing a lot of things well
 
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IU was a nice win (however IU is rated lower BPI than Iowa), Minnesota was down to 8 players, and had Iowa on the ropes. Glad the team is winning, hope for continued improvement. These next 2 games will be interesting to see how the team handles them.
 
Looks like they have made a concerted effort to try and rebound the last two games. We will see if this sticks or if they will revert back to the norm for this season.
 
The good news is, research says that about 91% of what we worry about never comes to fruition! The shortfalls on this team are easily observable and much-discussed. Rebounding, defense, and minute distribution seems to pretty much cover the bases, and I’ve posted quite a bit about all three

That said, IF Iowa does finish .500+ and goes dancing, all the negativity will have been for nothing because that would meet or exceed any expectations that a reasonable fan could have had for this team given what was lost last year. The point of this thread was that it’s okay to sometimes enjoy what we’re tuning into and recognize some of the positives in conjunction with how we can be better… because this is a fun team to watch and they are doing a lot of things well
Agree, a fun team to watch and it is nice to see our guards being able to keep up with quick guards from other teams. Thanks for starting a "positive" thread, it is refreshing!
 
Keegan leading the country in scoring is great and a surprise. Offense is still at a high level.
Defense is worse, 160 in Kempom. Doubt that will improve much with the rotations that Fran plays the most. Tough to win conference road games with that bad of a defense.

Making the NCAA Tournament would be a good accomplishment for this team.
 
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