Eamon Brennan's first 2017 edition just posted... Hawks not mentioned. I'm not sure how the refs could have messed that one up so badly...
Am I doing it right?
Am I doing it right?
Hawks not included in initial Bubble Watch
- Thread starter HeRKeYHoPeFuL
- Start date
Don't worry, I found us.
Northwestern [18-5 (7-3), RPI: 31, SOS: 119] Is this it? Is it going to happen? Is Northwestern's long institutional nightmare over? Will the suffering of the disproportionate share of sportswriters who attended NU finally cease? The answer is, yeah. Probably so! The Wildcats are far from safe at this point, particularly given that their nonconference schedule and lack of elite wins could put them at a glaring disadvantage in a head-to-head nitty-gritty comparison. But as long as the Wildcats don't totally pull an Iowa in the final month of the regular season, it shouldn't come to that. Chris Collins' team has already proved surprisingly durable on the road in conference play, a trait that could serve it well in trips to Indiana and Illinois in the season's final two weeks. In the meantime, they get a crack at Wisconsin on Sunday, followed by a home date with Maryland on Feb. 15, and they close with a March 5 game at home against Purdue. There are as many opportunities as travails on their schedule, and with 18 wins already -- again, just three away from an all-time record! -- the only major conference team never to play in the NCAA tournament has never been this close, this late. (No pressure.)
Northwestern [18-5 (7-3), RPI: 31, SOS: 119] Is this it? Is it going to happen? Is Northwestern's long institutional nightmare over? Will the suffering of the disproportionate share of sportswriters who attended NU finally cease? The answer is, yeah. Probably so! The Wildcats are far from safe at this point, particularly given that their nonconference schedule and lack of elite wins could put them at a glaring disadvantage in a head-to-head nitty-gritty comparison. But as long as the Wildcats don't totally pull an Iowa in the final month of the regular season, it shouldn't come to that. Chris Collins' team has already proved surprisingly durable on the road in conference play, a trait that could serve it well in trips to Indiana and Illinois in the season's final two weeks. In the meantime, they get a crack at Wisconsin on Sunday, followed by a home date with Maryland on Feb. 15, and they close with a March 5 game at home against Purdue. There are as many opportunities as travails on their schedule, and with 18 wins already -- again, just three away from an all-time record! -- the only major conference team never to play in the NCAA tournament has never been this close, this late. (No pressure.)
Iowa is not a bubble team now. They are not on any list, Lunardi or otherwise. If there was a category "Not close to being in now" or "Massive work left to do / miracle", they would appear on that list...
If they somehow go 2-0 this week, they'll be on the bubble. Tall task though. We'll know a lot more about this season after the Minny game.
They aren't yet that's unquestionably true but nearly every fan knew this was going to be a process. This team would struggle early due to inexperience. What also was noted was that they "could" be a very tough team to beat as the grew and gained experience. They are progressing still. They have lots of work to do. Will they ? I guess that depends on what you see. I don't know about how healthy our players are. Will the freshman hit a wall. What I see is a much improved defense from earlier. I also see a team that plays hard and hasn't quit since the first Purdue game, which I believe was more a shock about how hard they need to work in every game. I like very much the heady play in Bohannon and Ellingson lately. I like Jok' s ability to rebound and dump off passes more lately. He didn't shoot well against Nebraska, but we know what he is capable of.
We will have to keep working hard and communicating on defense, rebound a bit better and keep shooting well to win the next 2 games. From my seat I think they are more than capable. Let's go Hawks
We will have to keep working hard and communicating on defense, rebound a bit better and keep shooting well to win the next 2 games. From my seat I think they are more than capable. Let's go Hawks
People often forget that some teams on the bubble fall off too and thus are replaced by teams who were not previously on the bubble.
I would like to see the resumes of the other teams not in the top 4 of their conferences that look better than Iowa's. I am sure a case can be made for a bunch of teams with 18 wins who have played nobody all season, but the committee rarely rewards them with a bid unless they win their conference tournament.
Tall task for sure, but 17-18 wins + 1-2 in the BTT should do it. 4-3 or 3-4 in next 7 leaves the door open.
Tall task for sure, but 17-18 wins + 1-2 in the BTT should do it. 4-3 or 3-4 in next 7 leaves the door open.
I think the item that frustrates me, is that they're including Indiana, who hasn't accomplished anything since their major injuries. I expect Indiana requires the same kind of finish that Iowa does (about 75% the rest of the way), yet they are included and Iowa is completely ignored. I get the prohibitive RPI and SOS, but 2-3 wins would cure all ills. We've already got wins over ISU, Purdue, Michigan; one or two more good wins puts us with an as good or better resume than most bubble teams. Yes, we have to win the games, but which bubble teams don't?
We don't have a good resume. We are 14-10 w/ our best wins being a fair ISU team, a good Purdue team and a fair Michigan team. We have won ONE game on the road. We are not even close to the NCAA bubble yet. We are barely in the NIT field at this point.
They are on one list. They are a 10 seed. Not sure what he is thinking.
http://btn.com/2017/02/06/dienhart-heres-my-midseason-report-all-big-ten-teams/
Edit: scroll to bottom of story.
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Off the top of my head.
Minnesota (RPI of 23 and 8th in the Big 10). 8 wins over Top 100 RPI, 12 over Top 150. 0 bad losses.
Oklahoma State (RPI 27 and 8th in the B12). 9 wins over Top 100 teams.
Notre Dame (29 RPI, 7th in ACC). 8 wins over Top 100 RPI teams)
Duke (18 RPI, 6th in ACC). 9 wins over Top 100 RPI)
Va Tech (40 RPI, 8th in ACC). 8 wins over Top 100 RPI)
Michigan State (47 RPI, 7 wins over Top 100 RPI)
Other
K-State (38 RPI, 3 wins over Top 100 RPI). K-State is in trouble because of very poor non-conference.
The reason that Iowa's resume are as follows:
- Winning only 1 game against a good team out of conference. The ISU win was good, but it came at home. The UNI win most years would be decent (Top 100 RPI win) but UNI being bad isn't helping Iowa. Rutgers has a higher RPI than UNI.
- Playing a ton of crappy teams. Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UT Rio Grande, Stetson and Delaware State are all horrific, among the worst teams in basketball. Having 5 of them on Iowa's schedule is killing the RPI.
- Winning only 2 games away from home. RPI values road wins more than home wins. Loss at Nebraska is a killer, as the RPI boost from a Top 100 RPI win would have been good. Another one was the neutral court loss to Memphis. An eminently-winnable game that represents a lost opportunity for the rest of the season.
Not to be Debbie Downer here because I really like this young team, but I don't see how we get in with 20 wins. RPI will likely still be in the 50s. When was the last time an at large team with only 20 wins and a 50+ RPI made the dance?
The only way they make it IMHO is 7-0, or 6-1 with wins over both the remaining rated teams, PLUS at least 1 BTT win.
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Iowa needs to win their next 2 on the road, win the rest of their home games, and either beat Maryland or Wisconsin on the road, then we can talk about Iowa being a bubble team.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 99,425
- 208,871
- 113
It would be nice to play the Notre Dame, Memphis, Omaha, and Maryland games again
This is the weakest bubble of all time, IU in at 75 RPI shows we are on the cusp of being on the radar.
Jerry Palm of CBS on KGYM-1600 in Cedar Rapids when asked what Iowa would need to do to make the tournament, he said, "Win the Big 10 tournament!" When asked is there nothing they can do in the regular season to get into the NCAA tournament, he said, "Realistically, no, their only chance is to win the Big 10 tournament."
man, that's a tall order! i think we dug ourselves too big a hole
we have 4 tough road games left: Minny, MSU, MD, Wisky
I feel better after that, he is horrendous.
Personally, I don't feel there are many realistic scenarios where the Hawks make the tournament in the regular season (beating Rutgers on the road doesn't suddenly mean that we are going to be able to go into East Lansing, College Park, and Madison edit: heck the Barn is a tough venue, and win those games. Maybe we come away with one, or at best two, but it still won't be enough to get us into the tourney).
That said, I feel that this team has continued to improve over the course of the season, and could be playing its best basketball come BTT time. I don't believe that there are any unbeatable teams in this conference, so a run in the tourney isn't out of the picture by any means. That's our best shot, IMO.
That said, I feel that this team has continued to improve over the course of the season, and could be playing its best basketball come BTT time. I don't believe that there are any unbeatable teams in this conference, so a run in the tourney isn't out of the picture by any means. That's our best shot, IMO.
Agree, beating Minnesota would be huge for this teams metrics. If they don't do that and or beat MSU this week I am in your camp.
If the Hawks actually manage to beat Minnesota at the Barn, I'll probably need to re-think my post. Minnesota has a legit tournament caliber team (who has admittedly struggled with consistency) with tournament caliber athleticism, and is always a really tough venue. I'd expect the building to be electric Wednesday as it's a pretty big game for both teams.
I've said, and still believe, the game in East Lansing will be the more winnable of the two. We match up better with Sparty than Minnesota, IMO
I'm pleased as shit we're not on anyone's bubble list, and hope we remain as such. I don't want this team to even sniff any reason to relax. Whether they make the dance or not, I want the message driven home to the underclassmen that every game, if not every possession, matters.
Oh yeah ESPN..........you know what happens when you don't have Iowa on the Bubble Watch?
Agree that we don't deserve to be mentioned as a bubble team yet. Two wins this week, and Iowa should be mentioned as on the outside looking in.
If you think about it, our odds are probably better to win the BTT than winning 6 or 7 of 8 down the stretch.
I kind of agree - with as many guys as we play, we could really make some noise (if our shooters get hot) in a tournament where teams aren't getting as much rest as they are used to.
Yes that is probably true. With our depth we are built nicely for a tournament run.
BirdistheWord
HB Legend
Even in this year of the weak bubble, Iowa's resume just isn't good enough to warrant mention of them as a team in its proximity.
But, that's hardly a surprise.
I'm enjoying this nice mini run of good play without Jok for two games and who was obviously very rusty against nebby.
This was set up to be an erratic year of good and bad play. I'm seeing growth despite the inconsistency. The direction of the trend is positive.
But, that's hardly a surprise.
I'm enjoying this nice mini run of good play without Jok for two games and who was obviously very rusty against nebby.
This was set up to be an erratic year of good and bad play. I'm seeing growth despite the inconsistency. The direction of the trend is positive.
LOL. So you're saying there's a chance....
I would never call Suterman a lemon sucker. But he does like his grapefruit. Usually pretty spot on in his guesses, on the low side.
Win just need to win. But that wont be easy. The remainder of our schedule is probably the toughest stretch. A win tonight would be huge. But that is one of our easiest remaining games, and it won't be easy.
We are young and still improving. If we can Keep the defensive intensity that we show every game, but for a FULL 40 MINUTES, and Jok remains healthy, then we will make some bubbles... Count on it!
I don't think Iowa deserves to be on any bubble list, but I think being on a bubble list is a heck of a lot more motivating than having no shot at the tournament. Being on the cusp of something is more motivating than playing for no reward.
