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Hawks Up to #11 in Sagarin Rating

Given the Big 10's performance in March the last several years I've determined that these early season wins we rack up really don't mean much. I actually heard a good analysis about this. Big 10 teams typically have more returning players on them and fewer transfers so they start the season in much better playing shape than other schools, which gives them an advantage in the early season. However, by the end of the season the teams with all the transfers and one and dones catch up and are very different than they were in November.

I'm not saying Big 10 teams should start getting more transfers or one and done players, but it's hard to argue about the results in March.
 
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Given the Big 10's performance in March the last several years I've determined that these early season wins we rack up really don't mean much. I actually heard a good analysis about this. Big 10 teams typically have more returning players on them and fewer transfers so they start the season in much better playing shape than other schools, which gives them an advantage in the early season. However, by the end of the season the teams with all the transfers and one and dones catch up and are very different than they were in November.

I'm not saying Big 10 teams should start getting more transfers or one and done players, but it's hard to argue about the results in March.
This year the knock on the Big Ten going into the season was that most rosters had too much turnover on them with freshmen and transfers needing to play huge roles, so that doesn't really check out to me.
 
Given the Big 10's performance in March the last several years I've determined that these early season wins we rack up really don't mean much. I actually heard a good analysis about this. Big 10 teams typically have more returning players on them and fewer transfers so they start the season in much better playing shape than other schools, which gives them an advantage in the early season. However, by the end of the season the teams with all the transfers and one and dones catch up and are very different than they were in November.

I'm not saying Big 10 teams should start getting more transfers or one and done players, but it's hard to argue about the results in March.
Probably some truth in that but these early season wins certainly help with seeding going in to the tournament. Need to win them when you can.
 
Probably some truth in that but these early season wins certainly help with seeding going in to the tournament. Need to win them when you can.
It also has a huge impact on how many bids the conference gets. It balloons the conference's SOS because suddenly road games against middle tier Big Ten teams are Q1 wins. Right now the conference has 12 teams inside the top 60 on KenPom. Last year the Big 12 was similar in that every single road game in the conference was a Q1 opportunity. That has massive implications for tournament resumes.
 
This year the knock on the Big Ten going into the season was that most rosters had too much turnover on them with freshmen and transfers needing to play huge roles, so that doesn't really check out to me.
From the Big Ten games that I've seen so far, I'm leaning toward 2 teams that stand out. Illinois and Purdue. Illinois is very aggressive on defense and has some very good players, they will be there in the end, and Purdue is Eddy good. He impacts the game in so many ways and makes everyone on that team better, if he gets down low, he's hard to stop.
I'm still not sold on Indiana as they get most of their points on layups and dunks. We'll see how that continues in Big Ten conference games. Iowa has one glaring weakness and that's at center, Rebraca is a standard sized forward playing out of position and Iowa is going to pay for not recruiting a legit center. Really interested to see how Iowa contends with teams that have legit centers.
Wisconsin has continued to surprise me, Maryland, Ohio St. Penn St and Michigan will via for middle to upper Big Ten standings and Michigan St is so up and down but they are capable of looking good or bad from game to game, of coarse every team in the Big is capable of looking good or bad from game to game. It's going to be a meat grinder season. But what I've gleaned so far is the Big Ten is a much better conference then anyone had predicted in the preseason.
 
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It also has a huge impact on how many bids the conference gets. It balloons the conference's SOS because suddenly road games against middle tier Big Ten teams are Q1 wins. Right now the conference has 12 teams inside the top 60 on KenPom. Last year the Big 12 was similar in that every single road game in the conference was a Q1 opportunity. That has massive implications for tournament resumes.
The problem is Big 10 teams are losing once they get the seed. I don't think there is one reason for this, but it's not good for the Big 10 to get 8 teams in the tournament every year to see 7 of them finished by the end of the first weekend.
 
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From the Big Ten games that I've seen so far, I'm leaning toward 2 teams that stand out. Illinois and Purdue. Illinois is very aggressive on defense and has some very good players, they will be there in the end, and Purdue is Eddy good. He impacts the game in so many ways and makes everyone on that team better, if he gets down low, he's hard to stop.
I'm still not sold on Indiana as they get most of their points on layups and dunks. We'll see how that continues in Big Ten conference games. Iowa has one glaring weakness and that's at center, Rebraca is a standard sized forward playing out of position and Iowa is going to pay for not recruiting a legit center. Really interested to see how Iowa contends with teams that have legit centers.
Wisconsin has continued to surprise me, Maryland, Ohio St. Penn St and Michigan will via for middle to upper Big Ten standings and Michigan St is so up and down but they are capable of looking good or bad from game to game, of coarse every team in the Big is capable of looking good or bad from game to game. It's going to be a meat grinder season. But what I've gleaned so far is the Big Ten is a much better conference then anyone had predicted in the preseason.
Ogundele!
 
The problem is Big 10 teams are losing once they get the seed. I don't think there is one reason for this, but it's not good for the Big 10 to get 8 teams in the tournament every year to see 7 of them finished by the end of the first weekend.
That's a gambler's fallacy though. Past results =/= future results. If you're a fan of a Big Ten team you absolutely should be rooting for the Big Ten to look as strong as possible in the non-conference. The more teams that are thought to be quality means more opportunities for quality wins (and loses aren't detrimental).
 
From the Big Ten games that I've seen so far, I'm leaning toward 2 teams that stand out. Illinois and Purdue. Illinois is very aggressive on defense and has some very good players, they will be there in the end, and Purdue is Eddy good. He impacts the game in so many ways and makes everyone on that team better, if he gets down low, he's hard to stop.
I'm still not sold on Indiana as they get most of their points on layups and dunks. We'll see how that continues in Big Ten conference games. Iowa has one glaring weakness and that's at center, Rebraca is a standard sized forward playing out of position and Iowa is going to pay for not recruiting a legit center. Really interested to see how Iowa contends with teams that have legit centers.
Wisconsin has continued to surprise me, Maryland, Ohio St. Penn St and Michigan will via for middle to upper Big Ten standings and Michigan St is so up and down but they are capable of looking good or bad from game to game, of coarse every team in the Big is capable of looking good or bad from game to game. It's going to be a meat grinder season. But what I've gleaned so far is the Big Ten is a much better conference then anyone had predicted in the preseason.

Hes a legit center but the only quality one on the roster. Ideally, wed have two like we had with woody/gabe, luka/kreiner/cook/ nunge. We dont even have a back 4 like a melsahn or pemsl to give us time at the 5. Big josh is improving though.
 
Ogundele!
For the short amount of time he played last night he did well, but if he was on any other team in the BIG would you really consider him a quality player?
Of all the 6-11 or taller players in this country that Fran could have pursued in the last 2 years, Ogundele and Mulvey are the best he could have come up with? Evidently, but Ogundele is not and will never provide Iowa with any long term playing time without running out of energy. He is who he is. Next year should be his last with Iowa unless he bolts for the portal again.
If Iowa fans are excited about seeing Josh with playing time they should never complain if Petras decides to return for his 6th year. Fran could've done better and I will always believe that Josh was recruited to persuade Dasonte Bowen to come to Iowa. Bowen was clearly the targeted recruit.
 
Iowa has one glaring weakness and that's at center, Rebraca is a standard sized forward playing out of position and Iowa is going to pay for not recruiting a legit center. Really interested to see how Iowa contends with teams that have legit centers.
I respectfully disagree. Kansas won it all with a 3G/2F starting lineup, and I think Baylor won it the year before playing mostly 4 guards.

I'd happily take an additional couple of Big10 losses if a smaller lineup gets Iowa to the sweet16
 
For the short amount of time he played last night he did well, but if he was on any other team in the BIG would you really consider him a quality player?
Of all the 6-11 or taller players in this country that Fran could have pursued in the last 2 years, Ogundele and Mulvey are the best he could have come up with? Evidently, but Ogundele is not and will never provide Iowa with any long term playing time without running out of energy. He is who he is. Next year should be his last with Iowa unless he bolts for the portal again.
If Iowa fans are excited about seeing Josh with playing time they should never complain if Petras decides to return for his 6th year. Fran could've done better and I will always believe that Josh was recruited to persuade Dasonte Bowen to come to Iowa. Bowen was clearly the targeted recruit.

You are probably right, but I hate to
Dismiss any player. Perhaps he really enjoys his limited playing time and wants to have a bigger role. I have seen enough of him to know the kid has some game. The only thing holding him back is conditioning/endurance. If the light comes on and he works very hard I think he has it in him to be a real Monster? Will he do it? I don’t know, but neither do you.
 
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From the Big Ten games that I've seen so far, I'm leaning toward 2 teams that stand out. Illinois and Purdue. Illinois is very aggressive on defense and has some very good players, they will be there in the end, and Purdue is Eddy good. He impacts the game in so many ways and makes everyone on that team better, if he gets down low, he's hard to stop.
I'm still not sold on Indiana as they get most of their points on layups and dunks. We'll see how that continues in Big Ten conference games. Iowa has one glaring weakness and that's at center, Rebraca is a standard sized forward playing out of position and Iowa is going to pay for not recruiting a legit center. Really interested to see how Iowa contends with teams that have legit centers.
Wisconsin has continued to surprise me, Maryland, Ohio St. Penn St and Michigan will via for middle to upper Big Ten standings and Michigan St is so up and down but they are capable of looking good or bad from game to game, of coarse every team in the Big is capable of looking good or bad from game to game. It's going to be a meat grinder season. But what I've gleaned so far is the Big Ten is a much better conference then anyone had predicted in the preseason.
Michigan looks like crap to me. I see them in the bottom five teams. I think we'll be fine with Rebraca in most games. There aren't that many teams with real low post monsters. Big Jelly time.....
 
Given the Big 10's performance in March the last several years I've determined that these early season wins we rack up really don't mean much.
These types of games - especially wins vs better competition, and at neutral or road sites - helps seeding and placement come selection time.

But other than that, yeah not much meaning.
 
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