How difficult is 12-0?

[artradley]

Let's assume Iowa's opponents, on balance, have been average. Let's also suppose that a top-10 team will beat an "average" team 80% of the time. The odds of that team winning 12 straight are less than 7%. Even if you expect to beat an average team 85% of the time, the odds of finishing 12-0 are only about 15%.

It would seem that either Iowa has completely defied the odds, or they are really, really good.

 

[MauiHawk]

... and if we were an "average" team expected to go 6-6, our chances of 12-0 would be 0.024%. Chances are, we're not average.