How will Fran's Hawkeyes fare in the NCAA's?
- Thread starter Suterman
- Start date
I picked Elite 8.
One thing that will help Iowa, in the tourney teams generally aren't allowed to play "defense" like we see in the B1G.
One thing that will help Iowa, in the tourney teams generally aren't allowed to play "defense" like we see in the B1G.
I think we can squeak by and get to the Elite 8
BUT, if we play #1 seed Gonzaga or #1 seed Illinois, it will be tough to break through.
Whoever is the #2 seed in Michigan's bracket might be in for some luck with Livers out.
Its all about match ups, making shots, getting stops, and, of course, some luck.
The bar is set at the sweet 16. I think they get there.
No final 4 option?
I think Final 4 is the ceiling.
I would be bummed out if they didn't get to the sweet 16.
I think Final 4 is the ceiling.
I would be bummed out if they didn't get to the sweet 16.
If they don’t make the Sweet 16 the season will have been a failure.
No option for Final 4? I picked Elite 8 which would make this the most successful season that I’ve seen personally.
So do I. the question then becomes, can we play our way into the Elite 8? Maybe, maybe not.
This is hard. I'm honestly more concerned about the first game than the 2nd. Some of these small conference teams could be under-seeded since their record and stats reflect some COVID pauses. Barring that, I think as soon as Iowa faces a team on the level of Oklahoma State, that could be the end.
Every other year or so a 2 seed loses.
I have no prediction, but I'd hate to see Iowa against a team with sticky guards
I have no prediction, but I'd hate to see Iowa against a team with sticky guards
I honestly think this team is a sweet 16 team. If they go beyond that...hats off to Fran and the guys!
GO HAWKS!
GO HAWKS!
A
anon_b29nm7v7dwp6r
Guest
Sweet 16 or bust. This season will be judged on that alone....anything more is gravy. If Fran can’t take this team to the sweet 16 he’s never getting there
I am a little worried that Texas winning the Big 12 Tournament might bump us down to a 3 seed, but I think we're probably still solid at 2. That said, it's the NCAAs. We didn't fare so well the last time we entered this high.
BirdistheWord
HB Legend
Once in a lifetime to have basically back to back NPOY, aim higher! Elite 8 or bust!
This team needs to achieve something. Nobody cares about who finished 3rd in the Big Ten or who got a #2 seed in the NCAA's, that just isn't the point. If they do nothing in the NCAA's, they haven't achieved anything. We were 1-1 in the B1G tournament, we finished 3rd in the conference and the last thing left to achieve is something in the NCAA,s. This team has been great fun, I love them, and they have achieved great things individually. The NCAA's is their last chance to do something truly meaningful as a team. They have not done so to this point.
Sweet 16 should be doable, anything more is doubtful IMO. Nunge out hampers Luka big time on the Defensive end, and no rim protectors if we face good guards. Another layup drill like today.
And NCAA games often come down to free throw shooting. Aside from Jbo, our team sucks at the line. Not a good sign.
And NCAA games often come down to free throw shooting. Aside from Jbo, our team sucks at the line. Not a good sign.
At least it won't be a football game like the Big ten tournament.
I remember years ago when Hampton beat a very good ISU in the first round. It can happen but I don't see our Hawks making that mistake.
2nd round loss, until it happens I have zero faith in Fran being able to make it out of the first weekend
I don’t mean this in a bad way at all, but it seems like your expectations are exactly the same as mine and it surprises me. I think of myself as more of a pessimist (I prefer “realist” on this forum, LOL) and I always thought you were more of an optimist.
At any rate, I’m also with you that if Fran can’t take this group to a S16 or better, he’s never going to do it with Iowa. That’s the possible discussion that will have this board MELTING DOWN in 1 week if it happens. I’ll be vocal if so - I’m not a Fran guy as most know...
that all said I’m all in because this is the best team we’ve had in at least 15 years and perhaps 35 years. Go Hawks.
I am an optimist for sure. I do believe we will reach the Sweet 16 or more and this team needs to do that. Their legacy is at stake. No one remembers that Bruner, Horner and Haluska won the B1G tournament because they lost in the 1st round to Northwestern State. This team needs to do something as a team or it's legacy will be close but no cigar.
I remember the 2006 BTT champions , Brunner, Horner & Haluska..I even remember Alex Thompson hitting a huge shot.
The NCAA is a minefield....only in Iowa do we make predictions before we even know who we are playing and who is in our bracket. Just funny with ya..I'll do your poll after the brackets come out until then I'll say we get beat first round and we get another round of Fran haters.
I'm a pessimist.
Tough poll. It all comes down to Iowa's 3PT shooting IMO (assuming Garza stays out of foul trouble). If the Hawks are clicking on 3s (+40%), I believe they have a good shot at the F4. The better the %, the better the chance. 3PT shots not falling? Lower seed upset very possible afterRd1.
I voted Elite8. If Connor McCaffery is suddenly hot ---Final 4?..... we all know what the scouting report will be for CM (sag off him around the arc). Maybe that was all part of Fran's plan.... spring the real CM 3PT assassin in the Big Dance
)
I voted Elite8. If Connor McCaffery is suddenly hot ---Final 4?..... we all know what the scouting report will be for CM (sag off him around the arc). Maybe that was all part of Fran's plan.... spring the real CM 3PT assassin in the Big Dance
)
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Depends on whether you judge the season by preseason expectations for by historical Iowa standards.
Tough poll. It all comes down to Iowa's 3PT shooting IMO (assuming Garza stays out of foul trouble). If the Hawks are clicking on 3s (+40%), I believe they have a good shot at the F4. The better the %, the better the chance. 3PT shots not falling? Lower seed upset very possible afterRd1.
I voted Elite8. If Connor McCaffery is suddenly hot ---Final 4?..... we all know what the scouting report will be for CM (sag off him around the arc). Maybe that was all part of Fran's plan.... spring the real CM 3PT assassin in the Big Dance
IMO, the extreme importance of 3 pt shooting is an illusion. The difference between 35% and 40%
on 20 shots is only 3 points, less any put backs on offensive rebounds.
The key to building a strong tournament team is consistency and balance built on strong levels of defense, and rebounding, combined with astute bench coaching. Good shooting is just a bonus.
Fran does not build good tournament teams. Vulnerability in any of those areas exposes us to failure against almost any tournament team. Garza is an insurance policy in our first game because he will overcome any level of play by us or our opponent. But that will be the last of our "safe games".
Which subsequent game will our improved defense relapse as it did yesterday? Why did Fran wait until the last 10 games of Garza's 4 year career (or Fran's 11 year tenure) to emphasize defense? The recent change makes it susceptible to relapse.
Which subsequent game will Fran put Garza on the bench for 12 minutes in the first half or make some other game-losing substitution decisions?
Which subsequent game will Fran make late game tactical decisions that give us no chance?
Which subsequent game will our combination of poor offensive rebounding and TOs result in too few shot attempts?
These vulnerabilities become additive in a tournament. I've listed 4 of them. Even If the chances of avoiding each of them are 85%, the chances of avoiding all of them in any one game is .85x.85x.85x.85
or 52%.
Obviously match-ups have a huge impact, but lacking that info at this point, and not even considering a higher level of opponent after the second game, I see our chances as:
winning 2 games: 50%
winning 3 games 25%
winning 4 games 10%
We need to get lucky!
Here is what I know... Highest seed since 87 is probable(34 years). Best chance of getting to FF since 2006(15 years). Not having to watch the bubble moving and dealing with anxiety priceless!
Go Hawks!
Go Hawks!
To win a championship takes a certain amount of luck. Especially for Iowa. We have played well down the stretch..Much better than I thought we would after the second Indy loss. Helps that we have the best player in the nation. But you have to stay healthy. Lose a key player and your chances diminish greatly. We'll see how Michigan does with out Livers. Illiwini have stayed healthy..no injuries that I am aware of. We lost Nunge and lost CJ for some key games. Now both weezy and CJ are hobbled. A nice draw in our region would sure be nice. No big men to contend with Garza until the semis would be nice.
Wouldn't that be something if CMAC went 50% from the 3. And lit everyone up for reading the scouting report was to leave him open and double Garza.Tough poll. It all comes down to Iowa's 3PT shooting IMO (assuming Garza stays out of foul trouble). If the Hawks are clicking on 3s (+40%), I believe they have a good shot at the F4. The better the %, the better the chance. 3PT shots not falling? Lower seed upset very possible afterRd1.
I voted Elite8. If Connor McCaffery is suddenly hot ---Final 4?..... we all know what the scouting report will be for CM (sag off him around the arc). Maybe that was all part of Fran's plan.... spring the real CM 3PT assassin in the Big Dance
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